MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bullish Conditions Reinforced for Equities

Price Signal Summary – Bullish Conditions Reinforced for Equities

• S&P E-Minis traded higher Tuesday, extending the bull cycle that started Mar 15 and the contract is holding onto these recent gains. Bullish conditions have also been reinforced by the recent break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bullish having traded higher Tuesday. The contract has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA - today at 3863.50. This average represented an important resistance and the break higher confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Mar 7.
• EURUSD maintains a firmer short-term tone following this week’s gains and the break of key near-term resistance at 1.1137, Mar 17 high. The break eases recent bearish threats and highlights a resumption of the bull cycle that started Mar 7. EURGBP continues to climb. The cross has this week cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.8458, Mar 17 high, highlighting a reversal. The break also confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 7 and signals scope for an extension near-term. USDCAD traded through key support at 1.2451 yesterday - the Jan 19 low. This reinforces bearish conditions and extends the downtick triggered by the recent break of 1.2552, 76.4% of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally.
• WTI futures traded lower Tuesday but did find support at the day low. The move lower confirms an extension of the reversal from $116.64, the Mar 24 high. The contract has also breached the 20-day EMA. Gold remains inside its current range - the metal traded lower Tuesday but bounced off the day low. The outlook is bearish following the recent pullback from $2070.4, Mar 8 high.
• Bunds are unchanged and remain in a downtrend following recent weakness and an extension below the 160.00 handle. The continuation lower also confirms an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that has unfolded since Aug / Sep 2019. Gilt futures are consolidating. Trend conditions remain bearish though and gains are considered corrective.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Firmer Short-Term Tone

• RES 4: 1.1274 High Feb 25
• RES 3: 1.1261 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1232 61.8% of Feb 10-Mar 7 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.1222 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• PRICE: 1.1162 @ 06:06 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 1.1058/0945 20-day MA / Low Mar 28
• SUP 2: 1.0898/06 Low Mar 14 / Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020

EURUSD maintains a firmer short-term tone following this week’s gains and the break of key near-term resistance at 1.1137, Mar 17 high. The break eases recent bearish threats and highlights a resumption of the bull cycle that started Mar 7. Prices have also topped the 50-day EMA at 1.1150. This paves the way for strength towards 1.1232 initially, a Fibonacci retracement, ahead of 1.1261, the 2.0% 10-dma envelope. Initial firm support is at 1.0945.

GBPUSD TECHS: 1.3000 Appears Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3492 76.4% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 15 downleg
• RES 3: 1.3439 High Feb 25
• RES 2: 1.3306 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3225/98 High Mar 25 and 23
• PRICE: 1.3117 @ 06:12 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 1.3051/3000 Low Mar 29 / Low Mar 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2954 1.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933 Low Nov 5 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

Technical signals in GBPUSD remain bearish. The push lower earlier this week highlighted an extension of the reversal from 1.3298, Mar 23 high. Cable has recently failed to hold on to gains above a number of short-term resistance points and the pullback means a key resistance at 1.3306, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. The focus is on 1.3000, Mar 15 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of the 50-day EMA would alter the picture.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Rally Extends

• RES 4: 0.8658 High Sep 28 2021
• RES 3: 0.8624 High Oct 1 2021
• RES 2: 0.8600 High Dec 8 2022
• RES 1: 0.8554 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 0.8509 @ 06:21 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 0.8451/8386 Low Mar 30 / Low Mar 29
• SUP 2: 0.8296 Low Mar 23 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8278 Low Mar 7
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger

EURGBP continues to climb. The cross has this week cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.8458, Mar 17 high, highlighting a reversal. The break also confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 7 and signals scope for an extension near-term. With prices above 0.8500, the focus shifts to 0.8554, the upper band of the 2.0% 10-dma envelope. Initial firm support is at Tuesday’s low of 0.8386.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 126.26 3.382 proj of the Dec 3 ‘21 - Jan 4 -24 price swing
• RES 3: 125.86 High Jun 5 2015 and a major resistance
• RES 2: 125.28 High Aug 12 2015
• RES 1: 123.20/125.09 High MAr 30 / High Mar 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 122.22 @ 06:26 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 121.32 Low Mar 30
• SUP 2: 120.95 Low Mar 24
• SUP 3: 120.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 119.65 20-day EMA

USDJPY remains below Monday’s trend high of 125.09. The move lower this week has resulted in a print below initial support at 121.97, Mar 28 low. Short-term weakness is considered corrective and is beginning to allow a recent extreme overbought condition to unwind. An extension lower would open 120.95, the Mar 24 low ahead of the 120.00 handle. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 125.09.

EURJPY TECHS: Holding Onto Its Gains

• RES 4: 140.03 High Jun 23 2015
• RES 3: 139.00 High Aug 21 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 138.62 High Aug 25 2015
• RES 1: 137.50/53 High Feb 2 ‘18 and major resistance / High Mar 28
• PRICE: 136.39 @ 06:31 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 133.94 Low Mar 28
• SUP 2: 132.95 Low Mar 24
• SUP 3: 132.29 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 130.89 50-day EMA

EURJPY traded to a fresh trend high Monday and the cross is holding onto the bulk of its recent gains. A key resistance at 134.13, Jun 1 2021 high was breached on Mar 24 . This strengthened bullish conditions and Monday’s gains reinforce the uptrend. The trend is however in overbought territory and marks a possible risk for S/T bulls given the steepness of the trend. A pullback would be seen as a healthy correction. 137.50/53 is the bull trigger.

AUDUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.7617/19 High Jun 25 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 0.7599 High Jul 6 2021
• RES 2: 0.7556 High Oct 28 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.7540/65 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 0.7483 @ 06:49 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 0.7450 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 0.7397/76 20-day EMA / Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 0.7306 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.7165 Low Mar 15 and a key support

AUDUSD remains below its recent YTD and multi-month highs and continues to consolidate. From a trend perspective, the direction remains up. This follows the Mar 22 break of 0.7441, Mar 7 high, marking an extension of the strong reversal from 0.7165, Mar 15 low. This also means the bull cycle that started Jan 28, remains intact. The break of 0.7441 signals scope for a climb towards 0.7556, the Oct 28 high. Initial firm support is seen at 0.7397.

USDCAD TECHS: Clears Key Support

• RES 4: 1.2778 High Mar 16
• RES 3: 1.2699 High Mar 17
• RES 2: 1.2660 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2593/2611 High Mar 28 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2517 @ 06:55 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 1.2430 Low Mar 30
• SUP 2: 1.2420 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.2387 Low Nov 10 2021
• SUP 4: 1.2328 Low Oct 29 2021

USDCAD traded through key support at 1.2451 yesterday - the Jan 19 low. This reinforces bearish conditions and extends the downtick triggered by the recent break of 1.2552, 76.4% of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally. The break lower opens 1.2387 initially ahead of 1.2328. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2611, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would ease bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Downtrend Intact

• RES 4: 162.73 High Mar 14
• RES 3: 161.81 High Mar 16
• RES 2: 160.31/160.65 High Mar 23 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 158.67 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 157.21 @ 05:07 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 156.05/00 Low Mar 29 / Round number support
• SUP 2: 155.70 Low Dec 7 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 155.03 Low Dec 4 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 154.81 Low Nov 9 2015 (cont)

Bunds are unchanged and remain in a downtrend following recent weakness and an extension below the 160.00 handle. The continuation lower also confirms an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that has unfolded since Aug / Sep 2019. With bearish momentum conditions dominating, the focus is on the 156.00 handle next. Firm resistance is at 160.31, the Mar 23 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Still Vulnerable

• RES 4: 131.550 High Mar 11
• RES 3: 130.870 High Mar 18
• RES 2: 130.181 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 129.140 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 128.180@ 05:13 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 127.750 Low Jun 5 2015 (cont)
• SUP 2: 127.540 Low Jun 4 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 127.520 Low Sep 3 2014 (cont)
• SUP 4: 127.280 Low Sep 18 2014 (cont)

Bobl futures traded lower on Tuesday and bearish momentum conditions continue to dominate. The move lower has again confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend and maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The break paves the way for a move towards 127.750 next, the Jun 5 2015 low (cont). The 20-day EMA at 130.181 is seen as a firm resistance.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Fresh Cycle Low

• RES 4: 111.355 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 111.170 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 111.158 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 110.915 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 110.590 @ 05:23 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 110.465 Low Mar 30
• SUP 2: 110.410 Low May 8 2014 (cont)
• SUP 3: 110.400 Round number support
• SUP 4: 110.360 Low Apr 29 2014 (cont)

Schatz futures remain vulnerable and yesterday traded to a fresh cycle low. The continued move lower strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend plus, it marks an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. 111.00 has recently been cleared and this paves the way for a move towards 110.410 next. Firm resistance is seen at 111.158, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 124.60 High Mar 8
• RES 3: 123.52 High Mar 9
• RES 2: 122.72 High Mar 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 121.75 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 120.81 @ Close Mar 30
• SUP 1: 119.86 Low Mar 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 119.75 123.6% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb
• SUP 3: 119.36 Low Oct 10 2018 (cont)
• SUP 4: 118.92 138.2% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb

Gilt futures are consolidating. Trend conditions remain bearish though and gains are considered corrective. The recent break of 120.26, Mar 24 low, marked a resumption of the broader downtrend and this has resulted in a print below the 120.00 handle. Further weakness would open 119.75, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance is seen at 122.72, Mar 18 high. A break would signal a more meaningful short-term reversal.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Bearish Trend Conditions

• RES 4: 143.85 High Mar 10
• RES 3: 142.51 Low Mar 1
• RES 2: 140.71 High Mar 11
• RES 1: 138.05/139.46 High Mar 28 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 137.13 @ Close Mar 30
• SUP 1: 135.69 Low Mar 29
• SUP 2: 135.43 Low May 7 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 134.61 Low Apr 24 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 134.00 Round number support

BTP futures remain vulnerable and the trend is down - futures traded to a fresh cycle low again Tuesday. The move lower marks an extension of last week’s break lower, through support at 138.60, Feb 16 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and highlights a continuation of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 135.43, May 7 2020 low (cont). Firm resistance is seen at 139.46.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 4189.00 Hi Feb 1
• RES 3: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 2: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 3965.50 High Feb 23
• PRICE: 3881.00 @ 05:38 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 3735.00/555.50 Low Mar 18 / Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 3455.00 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 3441.50 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3379.00 Low Dec 21 2020 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bullish having traded higher Tuesday. The contract has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA - today at 3863.50. This average represented an important resistance and the break higher confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Mar 7. Also, the move higher confirmed a bull flag breakout on the daily chart. The focus is on 3965.50 next, the Feb 23 high. Initial support lies at 3735.00, Mar 18 low.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 4730.50 High Jan 1
• RES 3: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 2: 4578.50 High Feb 9 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4633.44 76.4% retracement of the Jan 4 - Feb 24 downleg
• PRICE: 4602.75 06:51 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 4437.23 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4320.25 Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: 4129.50/4094.25 Low Mar 15 / Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)

S&P E-Minis traded higher Tuesday, extending the bull cycle that started Mar 15 and the contract is holding onto these recent gains. Bullish conditions have also been reinforced by the recent break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Furthermore, resistance at 4578.50, Feb 9 high has been cleared. The break opens 4663.50, Jan 18 high. Initial firm support is at 4437.23, the 50-day EMA. A break would be seen as a bearish development.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K2) Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $139.13 - High Mar 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: $133.15 - High Mar 8
• RES 2: $129.17 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 1: $114.83/123.74 - High Mar 29 / High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: $108.25 @ 06:41 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: $104.84/102.16 - Low Mar 28 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $96.93 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: $92.75 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $88.25 - Low Feb 18

Brent futures traded lower Tuesday but recovered from the session low. The move lower marks an extension of the pullback from last week’s $123.74 high (Mar 24). The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and this suggests scope for a deeper short-term retracement that has opened the 50-day EMA, at $102.16. The 50-day average marks a key pivot support. $123.74 remains the key short-term resistance.

WTI TECHS: (K2) 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $126.42 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $122.73 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $118.34 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 1: $108.75/116.64 -High Mar 30 / High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: $102.20 @ 07:02 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: $98.44/97.18 - Low Mar 29 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $92.20 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $88.49 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $85.81 - Low Feb 18

WTI futures traded lower Tuesday but did find support at the day low. The move lower confirms an extension of the reversal from $116.64, the Mar 24 high. The contract has also breached the 20-day EMA. The clear break strengthens a bearish case and signals scope for a move towards the 50-day EMA at $97.18. This EMA represents an important pivot level. On the upside, clearance of $116.64 would reinstate recent bullish conditions.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: $2104.6 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: $2075.5 - High Aug 7 2020 and the all-time high
• RES 2: $2009.2/2070.4 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8
• RES 1: $1966.1 - High Mar 24
• PRICE: $1923.8 @ 07:20 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: $1890.2 - Low Mar 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 3: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11

Gold remains inside its current range - the metal traded lower Tuesday but bounced off the day low. The outlook is bearish following the recent pullback from $2070.4, Mar 8 high. This has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. Key support is seen at the 50-day EMA, at $1904.5 and lies just ahead of the Mar 15 low of $1895.3. Both were probed yesterday, a clear break would signal scope for a deeper pullback. Initial resistance is $1966.1.

SILVER TECHS: Looking For Weakness

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $26.063/943 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $25.847 - High Mar 24
• PRICE: $24.671 @ 07:26 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: $24.513 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• SUP 3: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: $23.082 - Low Feb 15

Recent Silver gains stalled at $24.847, Mar 24 high. A S/T bearish theme remains intact and potential is seen for a deeper retracement. This is despite the recovery from Tuesday’s low of $23.974. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at $24.513 that was probed Tuesday. This EMA marks an important support and a clear break would signal scope for an extension lower. For bulls, a move above $26.00 would refocus attention on $26.943, the Mar 8 high.