MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bullish Equity Backdrop for NFP
MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – Bullish Equity Backdrop for NFP Week
- A bullish theme S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 5721.25, the Jul 16 high. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. The break higher means that all key retracement points of the Jul 12 - Aug 5 bear leg have been cleared.
- Bullish conditions in GBPUSD remain intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Recent gains reinforce a bullish condition and have maintained the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. USDJPY traded higher last week but for now, remains below resistance at the the 20-day EMA, at 146.84. The trend structure is bearish and moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up. A resumption of weakness activity would open key support at 141.70. USDCAD is unchanged and a bearish theme remains intact. The latest impulsive sell-off reinforces the current bearish condition and moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up.
- Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish with price trading closer to its recent highs. The breach of $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that MA studies are still in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a dominant uptrend. WTI futures have pulled back from last week’s high and the contract is starting this week on a bearish note as it trades lower. A continuation down would expose the $70.88 key support, the Aug 5 low.
- Bund futures continue to trade at their recent lows and remain below the 20-day EMA. Short-term weakness still appears to be corrective and this has allowed the recent overbought condition to unwind. Gilt futures remain in a short-term bear cycle and are trading lower today. The move down last week resulted in a breach of 98.79, Aug 12 low. The break highlights scope for a deeper retracement near-term that opens 98.19 next, a Fibonacci projection.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 1.1300 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
- RES 2: 1.1234 1.618 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- RES 1: 1.1140/1202 High Aug 29 / High Aug 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.1047 @ 06:03 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 1.1042 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.0990 50.0% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0952 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.0878 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
Last week’s move lower in EURUSD appears corrective and a primary bullish theme remains intact. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a rising trend. A resumption of gains would open 1.1234 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is overbought, a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA, at 1.1047, has been pierced. A clear break would expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.0952.
GBPUSD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.3425 1.764 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3362 1.618 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3328 76.4% retrace of the Jun 2021 - Sep 2022 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3266 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3126 @ 06:20 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 1.3190 Low Aug 30
- SUP 2: 1.3077 Low Aug 22
- SUP 3: 1.3030 20-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.2908 50-day EMA
Bullish conditions in GBPUSD remain intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Recent gains reinforce a bullish condition and have maintained the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a rising trend condition. Sights are on 1.3328, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm support is at 1.3030, the 20-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 0.8625 High Aug 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.8593 High Aug 14
- RES 2: 0.8545 High Aug 21 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 0.8437/8479 High Aug 28 / 20-Day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8416 @ 06:37 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 0.8400 Low Aug 30
- SUP 2: 0.8383 Low Jul 17 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8311 3.00 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
EURGBP remains in a bear-mode condition and last week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The cross has cleared all key retracement points of the rally between Jul 17 - Aug 8. This undermines a recent bullish theme and exposes 0.8383, the Jul 17 low and the next key support. Firm resistance is seen at 0.8479, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would, for now, be considered corrective.
USDJPY TECHS: Resistance At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 153.88 High Jul 31
- RES 3: 150.43 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 149.39 High Aug 15
- RES 1: 146.84 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 146.11 @ 06:59 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 143.45 Low Aug 26
- SUP 2: 141.70/140.82 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger / Low Jan 2
- SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28
USDJPY traded higher last week but for now, remains below resistance at the the 20-day EMA, at 146.84. The trend structure is bearish and moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up. A resumption of weakness activity would open key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the downtrend. On the upside, clearance of the 20-day EMA would signal scope for a stronger correction.
EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 167.53 Low Jun 14
- RES 3: 164.69 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 164.05 200 DMA
- RES 1: 162.20 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 161.55 @ 07:19 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 159.79 Low Aug 12
- SUP 2: 157.30/154.42 Low Aug 6 / 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
- SUP 4: 153.23 Low Dec 7 ‘23 and a key support
The trend outlook in EURJPY is bearish and this is reinforced by moving average studies that remain in a bull-mode set-up. The recovery in August has allowed an oversold condition to unwind. The cross has pierced the 20-day EMA but this resistance remains intact. A clear break of it would expose the 50-day EMA, at 164.69. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would open 154.42, the Aug 5 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 ‘23
- RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.6839 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 0.6824 High Aug 29
- PRICE: 0.6780 @ 07:54 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 0.6706/6665 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 0.6571 Low Aug 15
- SUP 3: 0.6508/6350 Low Aug 8/ 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10’23
A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Last week’s gains resulted in a print above 0.6799, the Jul 11 / Aug 23 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and pave the way for an extension towards 0.6871, the Dec 28 ‘23 high and the next key resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.6706, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 1.3739 High Aug 15
- RES 3: 1.3663 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.3604 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3519 High August 26
- PRICE: 1.3493 @ 07:58 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 1.3441 Low Aug 28
- SUP 2: 1.3420 Low Mar 8
- SUP 3: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Aug 5 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
USDCAD is unchanged and a bearish theme remains intact. The latest impulsive sell-off reinforces the current bearish condition and moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up. Furthermore, 1.3589, the Jul 11 low, has recently been cleared, strengthening a bearish theme. Sights are on 1.3358, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 1.3604 the 20-day EMA.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (U4) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 136.45 76.4% of the Dec 27 - May 31 downleg (cont)
- RES 3: 136.28 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 135.17/135.59 High Aug 14 / 6
- RES 1: 134.49 High Aug 29
- PRICE: 133.38 @ 08:10 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 133.35 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 133.26 50.0% retracement of the Jul 7 - Aug 5 rally
- SUP 3: 132.54 61.8% retracement of the Jul 7 - Aug 5 rally
- SUP 4: 132.08 / Low Jul 26
Bund futures continue to trade at their recent lows and remain below the 20-day EMA. Short-term weakness still appears to be corrective and this has allowed the recent overbought condition to unwind. The next support to watch lies at 133.41, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight scope for a deeper retracement. First resistance is 134.49, the Aug 29 high.
BOBL TECHS: (U4) Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 119.234 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
- RES 3: 119.090 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 118.300/118.530 High Aug 14 / 6
- RES 1: 117.980 High Aug 29
- PRICE: 117.570 @ 05:56 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 117.510 Low Aug 30
- SUP 2: 117.340 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 116.890 61.8% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 5 bull leg
- SUP 4: 116.650 Low Jul 25
A corrective bear cycle in Bobl futures remains in play. The recent move down has allowed an overbought condition to unwind and the uptrend remains intact. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a rising trend, and a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact. First key resistance is 118.300, the Aug 14 high. Firm support lies at 117.340 the 50-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Pierces Support At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 107.120 2.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
- RES 3: 106.916 1.764 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
- RES 2: 106.500/106.810 High Aug 6 / 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 106.360 High Aug 22
- PRICE: 106.200 @ 06:12 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 106.185 Low Aug 30
- SUP 2: 106.048/105.820 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26
- SUP 3: 105.630/495 Low Jul 22 / 11
- SUP 4: 105.390 Low Jul 5 and a key support
Schatz futures are unchanged and remain in consolidation mode. An uptrend is intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. The contract has again pierced a firm support at 106.213, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would be seen as a possible early bearish threat. Support at the 50-day EMA, lies at 106.048. Initial resistance is at 106.360, the Aug 22 high. A break would signal a potential bullish reversal.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Retracement Mode Extends
- RES 4: 101.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 100.30 High Aug 14
- RES 2: 99.85 High Aug 22
- RES 1: 99.21 High Aug 27
- PRICE: 98.23 @ 08:07 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 98.24 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 98.19 1.382 proj of the Aug 14 - 16 - 22 price swing
- SUP 3: 98.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 97.91 1.618 proj of the Aug 14 - 16 - 22 price swing
Gilt futures remain in a short-term bear cycle and are trading lower today. The move down last week resulted in a breach of 98.79, Aug 12 low. The break highlights scope for a deeper retracement near-term that opens 98.19 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend condition remains up and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. A reversal higher would signal the end of the corrective phase. First key resistance to monitor is 99.85, the Aug 22 high.
BTP TECHS: (U4) Correction Still In Play
- RES 4: 121.25 2.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
- RES 3: 120.85 2.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
- RES 2: 120.20 2.00 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
- RES 1: 120.00/06 Psychological round number / High Aug 22
- PRICE: 118.29 @ 08:07 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 118.07 Low Jul 29
- SUP 2: 117.36 Low Jul 26 and a key support
- SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8
- SUP 4: 114.72 Low Jul 2
The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish and the latest move lower is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and a bullish trend sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact. Note that the move down has resulted in a print below 118.41, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance and bull trigger is 120.06, Aug 22 high.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 5132.00 High Jun 6
- RES 3: 5087.00 High Jul 12 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 5012.00 High Jul 16
- RES 1: 4997.00 High Jul 17
- PRICE: 4968.00 @ 06:18 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 4876.03 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 4742.00 Low Aug 15
- SUP 3: 4665.00/4494.00 Low Aug 9 / 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 4478.81 2.236 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing
Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. The break higher means that all key retracement points of the Jul 12 - Aug 5 bear leg have been cleared. Sights are on 4997.00 next, the Jul 17 high, where a breach would open 5087.00, the Jul 12 high. Initial firm support to watch is seen at 4876.03, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a corrective pullback.
E-MINI S&P: (U4) Bulls Still In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 5821.25 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and Key resistance
- RES 1: 5669.00 High Aug 26
- PRICE: 5651.50 @ 07:22 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 5561.25/5518.91 Low Aug 29 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5438.75/5319.50 Low Aug 14 / 9
- SUP 3: 5182.00 Low Aug 8
- SUP 4: 5120.00 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
A bullish theme S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 5721.25, the Jul 16 high. Clearance of this level would resume the primary uptrend. Support to watch lies at 5518.91, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it is required to instead highlight a potential bearish threat.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (X4) Key Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $86.24 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $83.50 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 2: $80.53/81.46 - High Aug 26 / 12 and key resistance
- RES 1: $78.40 - 20-day EMA
- PRICE: $76.41@ 06:59 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: $74.62 - Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 2: $74.64 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 3: $73.16 - Low Dec 13 2023 and a key support
- SUP 4: $70.35 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures have pulled back from last week’s high and price has again traded lower today. A continuation of the bear leg would expose $74.62, the Aug 5 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would mark a resumption of the downtrend that started In April. On the upside, a reversal higher would again refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $81.46, the Aug 12 high.
WTI TECHS: (V4) Starts The Week On A Bearish Note
- RES 4: $83.45 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
- RES 3: $82.62 - High Jul 5
- RES 2: $80.82 - High Jul 18
- RES 1: $76.09/78.54 - 50-day EMA / High Aug 12 and key resistance
- PRICE: $73.05 @ 07:19 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: $70.88 - Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $70.43 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 3: $68.92 - Low Dec 13 2023
- SUP 4: $66.66 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
WTI futures have pulled back from last week’s high and the contract is starting this week on a bearish note as it trades lower. A continuation down would expose the $70.88 key support, the Aug 5 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Apr 12. For bulls, a reversal higher would once again refocus attention on key resistance at $78.54, the Aug 12 high.
GOLD TECHS: Trading loser To Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: $2600.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 ‘23 price swing
- RES 2: $2536.4 - 1.50 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2531.8 - High Aug 20
- PRICE: $2499.6 @ 07:13 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: $2481.9 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2433.8/2353.2 50-day EMA / Low Jul 25
- SUP 3: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
- SUP 4: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish with price trading closer to its recent highs. The breach of $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that MA studies are still in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a dominant uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards $2536.4 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $2481.9, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
SILVER TECHS: Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: $31.754/32.518 - High Jul 11 / High May 20 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $30.502 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 8 bear leg
- RES 1: $30.192 - High Aug 26 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $28.424 @ 08:05 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: $28.045/26.451 - Low AUg 16 / 8
- SUP 2: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
- SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
- SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
A medium-term bearish cycle in Silver remains intact and recent gains appear to have been a correction. The metal on Aug 8, traded to a fresh cycle low, before rebounding and this has exposed key support at $26.018, May 2 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $30.192, the Aug 26 high. A resumption of gains and a breach of this hurdle would cancel the bearish theme and expose $30.502 next, a Fibonacci retracement.