MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bullish Trend Persists in USDCAD

Price Signal Summary – Bullish Trend Persists in USDCAD

• The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact, however, a corrective cycle has resulted in a pullback from the recent high of 5368.25 (May 23). The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and this exposes a firmer support at 5208.12, the 50-day EMA. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded lower yesterday and the contract remains soft today. This week’s pullback has resulted in a breach of the 20- and 50- day EMAs.
• GBPUSD bulls remain in the driver’s, however, near-term a corrective cycle has started following the reversal from Tuesday’s 1.2801 high. Initial support to watch is 1.2657, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is at 1.2618 and marks a more important support point. The bullish cycle in AUDUSD that started Apr 19 remains in play and the recent move down appears to have been a correction - for now. Attention is on the key short-term support at 0.6585, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. A bullish trend in USDCAD remains intact and the most recent pullback appears to have been a correction. Key supports at 1.3645, the 50-day EMA, and 1.3610, the May 3 low, remain intact. They have recently been pierced, however, a clear break of both price points is required to threaten the bullish theme.
• Gold is trading lower today and a short-term bear cycle remains in play, for now. The medium-term trend structure is bullish and the recent move down appears to be a correction that is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. WTI futures traded higher yesterday and the contract is holding on to its most recent gains. The trend direction remains down and the latest recovery appears to be a correction - for now. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for a move towards $75.64, the Mar 11 low.
• A bear cycle in Bund futures, that started off the May 16 high of 132.11, remains in play. Wednesday’s move to a fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The contract has breached the key support and bear trigger at 129.53, the Apr 25 low. Gilt futures traded sharply lower Wednesday as the contract extends the reversal that started May 16. Yesterday’s sell-off resulted in a break of support around 95.87, the May 1 low. The clear break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension towards 95.17 next.

EURUSD TECHS: Retracement Mode

• RES 4: 1.0981 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0964 High Mar 13
• RES 2: 1.0933 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0860/95 High May 29 / 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.0797 @ 05:53 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 1.0783 38.2% retracement of the Apr 16 - May 16 rally
• SUP 2: 1.0766 Low May 13
• SUP 3: 1.0748 50.0% retracement of the Apr 16 - May 16 rally
• SUP 4: 1.0713 61.8% retracement of the Apr 16 - May 16 rally

EURUSD continues to retrace. The latest move down appears to be a correction. The trend condition remains bullish following a bear channel breakout on May 15 - the channel was drawn from the Dec 28 high. MA studies have also crossed and are in a bull-mode position. A resumption of gains would open 1.0933 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The 50-day EMA, at 1.0797 has been pierced. Next support is at 1.0783, a Fibonacci retracement.

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2859 1.236 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2801/03 High May 29 / High Mar 21
• PRICE: 1.2694 @ 06:09 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 1.2657/1.2618 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.2510 Low May 14
• SUP 3: 1.2446 Low May 9 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 1.2423 Low Apr 24

GBPUSD bulls remain in the driver’s, however, near-term a corrective cycle has started following the reversal from Tuesday’s 1.2801 high. Initial support to watch is 1.2657, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is at 1.2618 and marks a more important support point. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open 1.2803, the Mar 21 high and 1.2859, a Fibonacci projection.

EURGBP TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.8613 1.0% High May 9 and 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8557 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8543 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8502 @ 06:26 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 0.8484 Low May 29
• SUP 2: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 3: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2023
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022

EURGBP traded lower Wednesday before finding support and recovering from 0.8484, the day low. A bearish theme remains in play and key supports have recently been pierced; the 0.8500 pivot level, and an important support zone between 0.8498, the Feb 14 low, and 0.8493, the Aug 23 ‘23 low. A clear break of these price points would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is 0.8543, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play Despite Today’s Move Lower

• RES 4: 160.17 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 158.12 76.4% retracement of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off
• RES 2: 157.99 High May 1
• RES 1: 157.71 High May 29
• PRICE: 157.00 @ 06:51 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 156.10/154.39 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 153.45 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low
• SUP 3: 151.86 Low May 3
• SUP 4: 150.81 Low Apr 5

A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in play for now, despite today’s pullback. Recently, resistance at 156.74, the May 14 high and 157.00, 61.8% of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off, has been breached. A continuation higher would open 157.99, the May 1 high. For bears, a stronger reversal would again refocus attention on 154.39, the 50-day EMA, and 153.45, trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low. Clearance of these two price points would be bearish.

EURJPY TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 173.03 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 192.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 171.56 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 170.80 High May 28 and 29
• PRICE: 169.21 @ 07:56 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 168.79 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 166.72 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low
• SUP 3: 165.64 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 164.02 Low May 3

The medium-term trend structure in EURJPY is bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Recent gains signal scope for a test of 171.56, the Apr 29 high and a key resistance. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Initial support to watch is 168.79, the 20-day EMA. A break of it would expose key trendline support drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low, at 166.72. A clear breach of this line would highlight a reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching Support

• RES 4: 0.6771 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 1: 0.6680/6714 High May 28 / 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6697 @ 08:02 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 0.6591 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6585 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6558 Low May 8
• SUP 4: 0.6465/6407 Low May 1 / Low Apr 22

The bullish cycle in AUDUSD that started Apr 19 remains in play and the recent move down appears to have been a correction - for now. Attention is on the key short-term support at 0.6585, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 0.6558 initially, the May 8 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDCAD TECHS: Has Recovered From Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3748/85 61.8% of the Apr 16 - Mar 16 bear leg / High Apr 30
• PRICE: 1.3728 @ 08:10 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 1.3590 Low May 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

A bullish trend in USDCAD remains intact and the most recent pullback appears to have been a correction. Key supports at 1.3645, the 50-day EMA, and 1.3610, the May 3 low, remain intact. They have recently been pierced, however, a clear break of both price points is required to threaten the bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. A continuation higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Fresh Cycle Low

• RES 4: 132.89 38.2% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 25 bear cycle
• RES 3: 132.55 High Apr 15
• RES 2: 131.32/132.11 50-day EMA / High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 130.54 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 128.98 @ 05:29 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 128.75 Low May 29
• SUP 2: 128.42 Low Nov 1 ‘23 (cont)
• SUP 3: 128.26 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 127.56 Low Oct 26 2023 (cont)

A bear cycle in Bund futures, that started off the May 16 high of 132.11, remains in play. Wednesday’s move to a fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The contract has breached the key support and bear trigger at 129.53, the Apr 25 low. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year and opens 128.88 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at 130.54, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 117.880 High Apr 15
• RES 2: 117.620 High Apr 19
• RES 3: 117.083/440 High 50-day EMA / High May 16
• RES 1: 116.593 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 115.840 @ 05:43 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 115.710 Low May 29
• SUP 2: 115.410 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.250 Low Oct 23 2023 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.130 Low Oct 19 2023 (cont)

A downtrend in Bobl futures remains intact and yesterday's sell-off and fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This opens 115.410 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 116.593, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance and the reversal trigger is at 117.440, the May 16 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Trend Structure Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 105.790 High Mar 25 and key resistance
• RES 3: 105.680 High Apr 12
• RES 2 105.395 High May 31
• RES 1: 105.144/360 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 104.935 @ 05:47 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 104.880 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 104.800 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.745 Low Sep 26 2023 (cont) and a key support
• SUP 4: 104.683 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 25 price swing

The trend direction in Schatz futures is unchanged and remains down. Recent bearish price action resulted in a break of key support and a bear trigger at 105.045, the Apr 30 low. The move down paves the way for an extension towards 104.800, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a clear downtrend. Initial firm resistance is seen at 105.144, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U4) Impulsive Sell-Off

• RES 4: 98.25 High May
• RES 3: 98.12 High May 17
• RES 2: 97.44 High May 23 and a key near-term hurdle
• RES 1: 96.43 High May 29
• PRICE: 95.60 @ Close May 29
• SUP 1: 95.33 Low May 29
• SUP 2: 95.17 2.382 proj of the May 16 - 20- 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 95.02 2.50 proj of the May 16 - 20- 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 94.87 2.618 proj of the May 16 - 20- 21 price swing

Gilt futures traded sharply lower Wednesday as the contract extends the reversal that started May 16. Yesterday’s sell-off resulted in a break of support around 95.87, the May 1 low. The clear break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension towards 95.17 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 97.44, the May 23 high. First resistance is yesterday’s high of 96.43.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Breaches Support

• RES 4: 120.28 High Mar 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 119.55 High Mar 27
• RES 2: 119.00 High May 16 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 117.67 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 116.36 @ Close May 29
• SUP 1: 116.08 Low May 29
• SUP 2: 115.76 Low Apr 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 115.70 Low Dec 8 ‘23 (cont)
• SUP 4: 114.74 1.236 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 22 - Mar 14 price swing

BTP futures traded sharply lower yesterday and in the process cleared support at 116.94, the May 15 low. The break lower strengthens a bearish threat and a continuation down would open 115.76, the Apr 25 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would highlight an important technical break. On the upside, initial resistance is at 117.67, the 50-day EMA. Firmer resistance is seen at 119.00, the May 16 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 5162.00 High Nov 2000
• RES 3: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 5110.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 5022.40/5082.00 20-day EMA / High May 28
• PRICE: 4951.00 @ 06:47 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 4936.00 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull cycle
• SUP 2: 4894.90 61.8% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4862.00 Low Apr 25
• SUP 4: 4762.00 Low Apr 19 and a reversal trigger

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded lower yesterday and the contract remains soft today. This week’s pullback has resulted in a breach of the 20- and 50- day EMAs. The 50-day average lies at 4963.20 and a clear break of it would undermine the recent short-term bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 4894.90, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is seen at 5022.40, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Pullback Exposes Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 5417.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5372.73 1.764 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5368.25 High May 23 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 5254.25 @ 07:21 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 5250.50 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 5208.12 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 5099.25 Low May 3
• SUP 4: 5036.25 Low May 2

The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact, however, a corrective cycle has resulted in a pullback from the recent high of 5368.25 (May 23). The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and this exposes a firmer support at 5208.12, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a resumption of gains and a break of 5368.25, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q4) Recent Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $92.94 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $91.11 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $90.22 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $85.20/87.77 - High May 1 / High Apr 26
• PRICE: $83.20 @ 07:08 BST May 30
• SUP 1: $80.44 - Low May 24
• SUP 2: $79.87 - 61.8% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $75.63 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $73.47 - Low Dec 13 and a key support

Brent futures have recovered from their most recent low and the contract traded higher again yesterday, but has pulled back from the day high. Short-term gains are considered corrective. The trend condition is bearish and moving average studies reinforce this - they have recently crossed and are in a bear-mode set-up. A resumption of the bear leg would open $79.87, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is $87.77, the Apr 26 high.

WTI TECHS: (N4) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $86.93 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $83.63/86.16 - High Apr 26 / 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $80.90 - High May 1
• PRICE: $79.06 @ 07:15 BST May 30
• SUP 1: $76.15 - Low May 24
• SUP 2: $75.64 - Low Mar 11
• SUP 3: $73.24 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull leg
• SUP 4: $71.33 - Low Feb 5

WTI futures traded higher yesterday and the contract is holding on to its most recent gains. The trend direction remains down and the latest recovery appears to be a correction - for now. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for a move towards $75.64, the Mar 11 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $86.16, the Apr 12 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is at $83.63, the Apr 26 high.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: $2528.4 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2383.8 - High May 23
• PRICE: $2326.5 @ 07:23 BST May 30
• SUP 1: $2305.5 - 50- day EMA
• SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

Gold is trading lower today and a short-term bear cycle remains in play, for now. The medium-term trend structure is bullish and the recent move down appears to be a correction that is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $2452.5 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 50-day EMA, at $2305.5, represents a key support.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $35.745 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.887 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20
• PRICE: $31.532 @ 08:12 BST May 30
• SUP 1: $29.963 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $29.797 - High Apr 12 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: $28.153/26.018 - 50-day EMA / Low May 2
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Silver maintains a bullish theme and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. The move down has allowed an overbought condition to partially unwind. Recent gains resulted in a break of resistance at $29.797, the Apr 12 high. The breach confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has opened $33.887 next, a Fibonacci projection. A key support zone to watch lies between $29.963-28.153, the 20- and 50-day EMA values.