MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Break Confirms Double Bottom

Price Signal Summary – Bund Break Confirms Double Bottom

• The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract traded higher Monday, confirming an extension of the current bull cycle. Price has recently cleared 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger. The move has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish, however, a corrective cycle has resulted in a pullback from the May high, and this bear remains in play for now. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of 4943.00, the Jun 11 low.
• The GBPUSD trend condition remains bullish, however, last week’s sell-off is a concern for bulls. Price is trading just above recent lows and attention is on key short-term support at 1.2671, the 50-day EMA. The trend signal in USDJPY remains bullish and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. An important resistance at 157.71, the May 29 high, has been breached. This confirms a resumption of the short-term bull cycle and note that price has also pierced 158.21. USDCAD continues to trade above last Wednesday’s intraday low of 1.3680. Key support is unchanged at 1.3590, the May 16 low. A clear break of this level would threaten a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement.
• Gold is unchained and is trading closer to its recent lows. A sharp sell-off on Jun 7 reinforced a S/T bearish theme. The yellow metal has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 2314.6. WTI futures traded higher yesterday, extending the current bull phase. The climb has resulted in a print above at $80.62, the May 29 high and a key resistance. A clear break of this hurdle would cancel a recent bearish theme and pave the way for $82.93.
• Bund futures traded sharply higher last week, extending the latest impulsive bull cycle. Recent gains have also cancelled a bearish theme. The contract cleared resistance at 131.58, the Jun 5 high. This break confirms a double bottom on the daily chart. Last week’s rally in Gilt futures, resulted in a break of resistance at 97.86, the Jun 4 high and 98.05, 76.4% of the May 16 - 29 bear cycle. This cancels a recent bearish threat and instead highlights a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 29.

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.0916 High Jun 04 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.0852 High High Jun 12
• RES 2: 1.0798 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0745 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 1.0721 @ 05:59 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 1.0668 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 1.0650 Low May 1
• SUP 3: 1.0601 Low Apr 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2

A bearish theme in EURUSD remains intact. The reversal from last week’s high resulted in a break of 1.0720, the Jun 11 low. This strengthens a bearish theme. Note too 1.0675, 76.4% of the Apr 16 - Jun 4 bull leg, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for an extension towards 1.0650 next, the May 1 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.0852, the Jun 12 high. Initial resistance is 1.0745, the Jun 14 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Testing Support

• RES 4: 1.2947 1.50 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2764/2860 High Jun 14 / 12
• PRICE: 1.2695 @ 06:14 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 1.2657 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 1.2584 Low May 15
• SUP 3: 1.2510 Low May 14
• SUP 4: 1.2446 Low May 9 and a key near-term support

The GBPUSD trend condition remains bullish, however, last week’s sell-off is a concern for bulls. Price is trading just above recent lows and attention is on key short-term support at 1.2671, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would undermine the bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper correction, opening 1.2584 initially, the May 15 low. For bulls, a reversal higher and a break of 1.2860, the Jun 12 high, resumes the uptrend.

EURGBP TECHS: Moving Average Studies Highlight A Clear Downtrend

• RES 4: 0.8551 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 0.8541 High May 31
• RES 2: 0.8525 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8468/8486 High Jun 17 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8446 @ 06:29 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 0.8397 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 2022

A bearish theme in EURGBP remains intact and despite the latest bounce, the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. Last week’s move lower reinforces the bearish theme. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear mode position. This set-up continues to highlight a clear downtrend. Sights are on 0.8366 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8486, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains are considered corrective.

USDJPY TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 160.17 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 159.63 1.236 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 2: 158.48 1.00 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 1: 158.26 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 157.81 @ 06:47 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 156.63 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 155.34 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 155.01/154.55 Trendline drawn from Dec 28 low / Low Jun 4
• SUP 4: 153.60 Low May 16, 2024

The trend signal in USDJPY remains bullish and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. An important resistance at 157.71, the May 29 high, has been breached. This confirms a resumption of the short-term bull cycle and note that price has also pierced 158.21, 76.4% of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off. A clear break of this price point would open 160.17, the Apr 29 high and a key resistance. Initial support is 156.63, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 172.44 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 172.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 171.56 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 170.14 / 89 High Jun 13 / 3
• PRICE: 169.24 @ 16:38 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 167.53 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 167.33 Low May 16
• SUP 3: 165.64 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 164.02 Low May 3 and a pivot support

The EURJPY trend structure remains bullish and the recent move lower appears to be a correction. Note that the cross has pierced a key support at 168.14, a key trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. The line remains intact, however, a clear breach of it would undermine a bullish theme and highlight a potential reversal. The 50-day EMA, at 167.73, has also been pierced. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 170.14, the Jun 13 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Directional Triggers Defined

• RES 4: 0.6771 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 1: 0.6714 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6631 @ 08:00 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.6558 Low May 8
• SUP 3: 0.6539 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.6497 61.8% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg

AUDUSD continues to trade inside a range. Key resistance has been defined at 0.6714, the May 16 high and key support lies at 0.6576, the Jun 10. Both price points represent key short-term directional triggers. For bulls, clearance of 0.6714, would open 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a move below 0.6576 would expose 0.6558 initially, the May 8 low. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a potential uptrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Structure

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3792 High Jun 11
• PRICE: 1.3739 @ 08:08 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 1.3672/1.3590 50-day EMA / Low May 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

USDCAD continues to trade above last Wednesday’s intraday low of 1.3680. Key support is unchanged at 1.3590, the May 16 low. A clear break of this level would threaten a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For now, the trend outlook remains bullish, a continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 133.94 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 10 price swing
• RES 3: 133.71 High Apr 12
• RES 2: 133.42 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 133.21 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 132.53 @ 05:38 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 131.60/131.20 50- and 20-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 130.21 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 129.52 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger

Bund futures traded sharply higher last week, extending the latest impulsive bull cycle. Recent gains have also cancelled a bearish theme. The contract cleared resistance at 131.58, the Jun 5 high. This break confirms a double bottom on the daily chart and has also resulted in a breach of resistance at 132.83, May 16 high. This strengthens a bullish theme and opens 133.42, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is 131.60, the 50-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 117.640 2.236 proj of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 117.440 High May 16 2024 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.380 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 117.160 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 116.760 @ 05:45 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 116.340/116.032 Low Jun 14 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 115.560 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 115.180 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 115.000 Round number support

Bobl futures rallied last Friday marking an extension and an acceleration of the current bull cycle. The rally resulted in a break of resistance at 116.750, the May 16 high. This confirms a stronger bullish theme and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Sights are on 117.380 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 115.846, the 20-day EMA. First support lies at 116.340, last Friday’s intraday low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Remains IN Play

• RES 4: 106.225 3.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 106.091 2.618 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 106.009 2.382 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 105.975 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 105.755 @ 05:45 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 105.625/105.470 Low Jun 14 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 105.310 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 105.110 Low May 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 105.000 Round number support

Schatz futures traded sharply higher last Friday confirming an extension and an acceleration of the latest bull leg. The recent rally has resulted in the break of resistance at 105.460, the Jun 4 high. This strengthens a short-term bullish condition and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 106.009 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term support has been defined at 105.470, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U4) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 100.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 99.25 1.236 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 98.89/99.05 High May 16 a key resistance / High Jun 14
• PRICE: 98.33 @ Close Jun 17
• SUP 1: 97.86 High Jun 4 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 97.45/96.84 20-day EMA / Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 96.12 Low Jun 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 95.58 Low May 31

Last week’s rally in Gilt futures, resulted in a break of resistance at 97.86, the Jun 4 high and 98.05, 76.4% of the May 16 - 29 bear cycle. This cancels a recent bearish threat and instead highlights a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 29. Friday’s gains reinforced the bull theme, resulting in a print above 98.89, the May 16 high. A clear break of this hurdle would reinforce bullish conditions. Initial firm support is 97.45, 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (U4) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 118.58 High May 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.62 High Jun 5 and key resistance
• RES 1: 116.90/69 High Jun 17 / 12
• PRICE: 116.42 @ 07:05 Jun 18
• SUP 1: 115.28/114.35 Low Jun 12 / 11
• SUP 2: 114.02 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 113.60 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
• SUP 4: 112.77 61.8% of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 2023 rally (cont)

BTP futures have traded in a volatile manner recently. The latest reversal lower confirmed the end of the corrective phase between May 29 - Jun 5. This move down resulted in a break of key support at 115.54, the Apr 25 low, highlighting a resumption of the downtrend. However, price has rebounded from the Jun 11 low of 114.35. Initial key resistance is at 117.62, Jun 5 high. A break would be bullish. First resistance is 116.90, yesterday’s high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5110.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 5046.00/5088.00 High Jun 12 / 6
• RES 1: 4969.60 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 4905.00 @ 06:41 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 4818.00 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 4762.00 Low Apr 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: 4711.00 Low Feb 19
• SUP 4: 4626.00 Low Feb 13

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish, however, a corrective cycle has resulted in a pullback from the May high, and this bear remains in play for now. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of 4943.00, the Jun 11 low, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement. Scope is seen for a move towards 4762.00, the Apr 19 low and a key support. Firm resistance is at 5046.00, Jun 12 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: 5600.00 Round nu,ber resistance
• RES 3: 5594.66 2.618 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: 5572.00 2.50 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5561.00 High Jun 17
• PRICE: 5446.25 @ 06:29 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 5419.80/5336.90 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support
• SUP 3: 5213.25 Low May 6
• SUP 4: 5155.75 Low May 3

The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract traded higher Monday, confirming an extension of the current bull cycle. Price has recently cleared 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger. The move has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting bullish sentiment. Sights are on 5572.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 5267.75, the May 31 low. Initial support is 5419.80, 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q4) Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $91.11 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.22 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $87.04 -76.4% retracement of the Apr 12 - Jun 5 bear leg
• RES 1: $84.72 - High May 29 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $84.14 @ 07:18 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: $79.32/76.76 - Low Jun 7 / 4
• SUP 2: $75.63 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $73.47 - Low Dec 13 and a key support
• SUP 4: $71.20 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - May 24 - 29 price swing

Brent futures traded higher Monday, marking an extension of the current bull cycle. The climb has exposed key S/T resistance at $84.72, the May 29 high. A clear break of this hurdle would undermine a recent bearish theme and instead signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. This would open $87.04, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch is $81.95, the 20-day EMA. A break would be seen as an early reversal signal.

WTI TECHS: (N4) Maintains A Firmer Tone

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $86.16 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2:$82.93 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 bear leg
• RES 1: $80.93 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 bear leg
• PRICE: $80.20 @ 07:02 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: $77.83 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $75.23/72.48 - Low Jun 10 / 4
• SUP 3: $71.33 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $69.25 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support

WTI futures traded higher yesterday, extending the current bull phase. The climb has resulted in a print above at $80.62, the May 29 high and a key resistance. A clear break of this hurdle would cancel a recent bearish theme and pave the way for $82.93, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support to watch is $77.83, the 20-day EMA. A break would be seen as an early potential reversal signal.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2450.1 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $2333.6/2387.8 - 20-day EMA / High Jun 7
• PRICE: $2320.00 @ 07:39 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

Gold is unchained and is trading closer to its recent lows. A sharp sell-off on Jun 7 reinforced a S/T bearish theme. The yellow metal has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 2314.6. The break confirms a resumption of the reversal that started May 20 and signals scope for a deeper correction. This has opened $2277.4, the May 3 low. Clearance of this price point would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is $2387.8, the Jun 7 high.

SILVER TECHS: Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $29.338 @ 08:12 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: $28.842/659 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 13
• SUP 2: $27.971 - Low May 13
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Silver traded lower Jun 7 and cleared support at $29.381, the Jun 4 low. The break signals scope for a deeper short-term retracement. Note that the current corrective cycle is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $28.842. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at $32.518, the May 20 high.