MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Bull Cycle Remains in Play

Price Signal Summary – Bund Bull Cycle Remains in Play

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and last week’s extension reinforces this theme. The break of 5257.25, Mar 8 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bullish trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The move higher confirms once again a resumption of the uptrend and this has also resulted in a break of the 5000.00 handle.
• A sharp sell-off in GBPUSD Thursday and Friday, has strengthened a short-term bearish threat. Support at 1.2600, the Mar 1 low, has been cleared and this paves the way for a move towards 1.2536, the Feb 14 low and 1.2519, the Feb 5 low and a key support. The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Looking at moving average studies, they remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. Sights are on 151.91 and 151.95, the Nov 13 high and Oct 1 ‘22 highs respectively. USDCAD found strong support at last Thursday’s low and the pair is holding on to its recent highs. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3614, the Mar 19 high. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that began on Dec 27.
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and last week’s move higher reinforces this condition. The initial rally Thursday delivered another all-time high and confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition, reflecting positive market sentiment. WTI futures traded higher last week and a bull theme remains intact. The latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in a break of $79.87, Mar 1 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since mid-December last year.
• Bund futures have traded higher today and a short-term bull cycle remains in play. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA - at 132.98. A clear break of this EMA would be a bullish development and a continuation higher would open the key resistance at 134.15, the Mar 8 high. Gilt futures traded higher last, as the recovery from 98.05, the Mar 15 low, extends. A continuation higher would expose key short-term resistance at 100.37, the Mar 13 low, where a break would strengthen any developing bullish theme.

EURUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.1034 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 14 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• RES 2: 1.0981 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.0870/0943 20-day EMA / High Mar 21
• PRICE: 1.0816 @ 05:47 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 1.0802 Low Mar 22 and intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0796 Low Feb 29
• SUP 3: 1.0762/0695 Low Feb 20 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0656 Low Nov 10

EURUSD maintains a softer tone following the reversal from last Thursday’s intraday high. The pair has breached support at 1.0835, the Mar 19 low. This reinstates a recent bearish threat and a continuation lower would signal scope for 1.0796, the Feb 29 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. On the upside, clearance of 1.0943, the Mar 21 high is required to expose key resistance at 1.0981, the Mar 8 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27 2023
• RES 3: 1.2946 2.00 projection of the Feb 14 - 22 - Mar 1 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2713/2803 20-day EMA / High Mar 21
• PRICE: 1.2614 @ 05:57 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 1.2575 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 1.2536 Low Feb 14
• SUP 3: 1.2519 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2465, 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg

A sharp sell-off in GBPUSD Thursday and Friday, has strengthened a short-term bearish threat. Support at 1.2600, the Mar 1 low, has been cleared and this paves the way for a move towards 1.2536, the Feb 14 low and 1.2519, the Feb 5 low and a key support. Moving average studies continue to highlight an uptrend. A break of last Thursday’s 1.2803 high is required to ease bearish pressure. First resistance is 1.2713, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Range Breakout

• RES 4: 0.8678 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.8607 23.6% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 1: 0.8602 High Mar 22
• PRICE: 0.8578 @ 06:15 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 0.8530/8504 Low Mar 21 / 08
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

EURGBP traded higher last week resulting in a firm break of resistance at 0.8578, the Feb 20 high. The breach highlights a range breakout and a potential reversal. This opens 0.8607 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. A reversal lower would expose the bear trigger at 0.8493, the Aug 23 2023 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Conditions Remain Intact

• RES 4: 153.39 1.382 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 3: 153.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 152.66 1.236 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 1: 151.91/95 High Nov 13 / High Oct 1 ‘22 and major resistance
• PRICE: 151.26 @ 06:36 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 149.68/148.83 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 147.44 Low Mar 14
• SUP 3: 146.49 Low Mar 08 / 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 145.90 Low Feb 1

The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Looking at moving average studies, they remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. Sights are on 151.91 and 151.95, the Nov 13 high and Oct 1 ‘22 highs respectively. A break of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the long-term uptrend and open 152.66, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 149.68, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 167.45 1.382 proj of the Jan 2 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 3: 166.46 1.236 proj of the Jan 2 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 2: 166.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 165.35/96 High Mar 20 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 163.67 @ 06:50 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 162.71 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 161.50 Trendline drawn from Dec 7 low
• SUP 3: 160.22 Low Mar 11
• SUP 4: 159.47 Low Feb 8

The uptrend in EURJPY remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Last week’s rally resulted in a move through 164.30, the Nov 16 ‘23 high and a medium-term bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the long-term uptrend. The break higher opens 165.96, the top of a MA envelope, and the 166.00 handle further out. Initial firm support lies at 162.71, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 3: 0.6708 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
• RES 2: 0.6668 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.6568/6635 50-day EMA / High Mar 21
• PRICE: 0.6523 @ 07:26 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 0.6504 Low Mar 19
• SUP 2: 0.6478 Low Mar 5
• SUP 3: 0.6443 Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg

AUDUSD maintains a softer tone following the reversal from last Thursday’s intraday high. The move down reinstates a bearish threat and attention is on 0.6478, the Mar 5 low. A break of this level would expose the key support and the bear trigger at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low. Moving average studies continue to highlight a short-term downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at 0.6635, the Mar 21 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Testing Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3614 High Mar 19 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3598 @ 07:55 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 1.3456/20 Low Mar 21 / 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5

USDCAD found strong support at last Thursday’s low and the pair is holding on to its recent highs. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3614, the Mar 19 high. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that began on Dec 27. This would expose 1.3623, a Fibonacci retracement, and 1.3661, the Nov 27 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at 1.3420, the Mar 8 low. A break would be bearish.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Recovery Extends

• RES 4: 134.78 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Feb 29 bear cycle
• RES 3: 134.48 High Feb 5
• RES 2: 134.15 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 133.28/69 Intraday high / High Mar 12
• PRICE: 133.09 @ 05:19 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 132.28/131.54 Low Mar 22 / 18
• SUP 2: 131.23 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 131.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 129.88 Bear channel base drawn from the Dec 27 high

Bund futures have traded higher today and a short-term bull cycle remains in play. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA - at 132.98. A clear break of this EMA would be a bullish development and a continuation higher would open the key resistance at 134.15, the Mar 8 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend that started last December.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 119.050 High Feb 8
• RES 2: 118.790 High Feb 15 and Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 118.460 High Mar 12
• RES 1: 118.280 Intraday high
• PRICE: 118.200 @ 05:37 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 117.600/340 Low Mar 21 / 18
• SUP 2: 117.200 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 116.740 High Mar 5 (cont)

Bobl futures have traded higher today and remain above their recent lows. The recovery appears to be a correction, however, a continuation higher would expose key resistance at 118.790, the Feb 15 / Mar 8 high. For bears, a resumption of the recent move lower would open the key support and bear trigger at 117.200, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started early December last year.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Correction Remains In Play

• RES 4: 106.315 High Feb 8
• RES 3: 106.145 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 106.040 Low Feb 15
• RES 1: 105.790/106.010 Intraday high / High Mar 8
• PRICE: 105.765 @ 05:46 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 105.515 Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 105.490 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 105.430 High Feb 20 (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.310 High Feb 26 (cont)

A downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact, however, a S/T corrective cycle is in play and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. A continuation higher would expose key resistance at 106.010, Mar 8 high. A break of this level would be bullish. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 105.490, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend that started in December last year.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Approaching Key Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 101.00 Round number support
• RES 3: 100.73 1.764 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 2: 100.50 1.618 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 1: 100.05/100.37 High Mar 22 / 12 and a key S/T resistance
• PRICE: 99.82 @ Close Mar 22
• SUP 1: 98.87/05 20-day EMA / Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 97.67 76.4% retracement of the Feb 29 - Mar 12 rally
• SUP 3: 97.42 Low Mar 1
• SUP 4: 96.83 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures traded higher last, as the recovery from 98.05, the Mar 15 low, extends. A continuation higher would expose key short-term resistance at 100.37, the Mar 13 low, where a break would strengthen any developing bullish theme. Key short-term support has been defined at 98.05, the Mar 15 low. A break would be bearish. For now, 98.05 and 100.37 mark the key short-term directional triggers.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Monitoring Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 121.65 2.618 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 121.19 2.382 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 2: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 120.28 High Mar 14
• PRICE: 119.24 @ Close Mar 22
• SUP 1: 118.60/33 20-day EMA / Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 117.85 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.00 Round number support

BTP futures continue to trade below the recent highs. A short-term bullish theme remains intact following the recovery that started on Feb 22, however, a clear break of support at the 20-day EMA - at 118.60 - would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 117.85, the 50-day EMA and a key short-term support. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 120.65, the Dec 27 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5074.70 1.236 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 5022.00 High Mar 21
• PRICE: 4991.00 @ 06:11 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 4905.50 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4872.00/4826.00 Low Mar 11 / 5
• SUP 3: 4771.00 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 4711.00 Low Feb 19

A bullish trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The move higher confirms once again a resumption of the uptrend and this has also resulted in a break of the 5000.00 handle. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5074.7, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 4905.50, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 5428.25 1.00 proj of the Oct 27 - Dec 28 - May 1 price swing
• RES 3: 5400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5379.92 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 17 low
• RES 1: 5322.75 High Mar 21
• PRICE: 5285.50 @ 06:53 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 5227.40 Bull channel base drawn from the Jan 17 low
• SUP 2: 5206.16 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 5157.00 Low Mar 11
• SUP 4: 5091.02 50-day EMA

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and last week’s extension reinforces this theme. The break of 5257.25, Mar 8 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies remain in a bull-mode position reflecting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5389.02, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 17 low. Initial firm support is at 5206.16, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K4) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $89.26 - High Sep 15 ‘23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $88.31 - High Oct 20
• RES 1: $87.70- High Mar 20
• PRICE: $85.77 @ 06:59 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: $84.11 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $82.30 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $80.19 - Low Feb 26
• SUP 4: $76.41 - Low Feb 5 and key S/T support

A bull cycle in Brent futures remains in play and the recent move lower is considered corrective. Price has recently cleared resistance at $84.34, the Mar 1 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this highlights a clear uptrend. Sights are on $88.31, the Oct 20 ‘23 high. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $84.11, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (K4) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $84.87 - High Sep 15 ‘23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $83.87 - High Oct 20 ‘23
• RES 1: $83.12 - High Mar 19
• PRICE: $80.96 @ 07:12 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: $79.40 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $77.59/75.50 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 26
• SUP 3: $71.52 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $70.02 - Low Jan 3

WTI futures traded higher last week and a bull theme remains intact. The latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in a break of $79.87, Mar 1 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since mid-December last year. Sights are on $83.87 next, the Oct 20 ‘23 high. A break of this level would open $84.87, the Sep 15 ‘23 high and a key resistance. Support to watch is $79.40, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remain Bullish

• RES 4: $2282.6 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2253.6 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2230.1 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2220.9 - High Mar 21
• PRICE: $2166.6 @ 07:15 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $2135.7 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2087.6 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $2039.1 - Low Mar 1

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and last week’s move higher reinforces this condition. The initial rally Thursday delivered another all-time high and confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition, reflecting positive market sentiment. This signals scope for a climb towards $2230.1, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term trend support has been defined at $2146.2, the Mar 18 low.

SILVER TECHS: Retracement Mode

• RES 4: $26.753 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 ‘22
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 1: $25.774 - High Mar 21
• PRICE: $24.687 @ 08:01 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: $24.306 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $23.710 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

A bullish condition in Silver remains intact despite the sharp sell-off in the metal last Thursday. The recent rally reinforces a bullish theme. Resistance at $25.761, the Dec 4 high, has been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen bullish conditions and expose key resistance at $26.135, the May 5 ‘23 high. A move through this level would highlight an important technical break. Initial firm support to watch lies at $24.306, the 20-day EMA.