MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Futures Maintain Firmer S/T Tone

Price Signal Summary – Bund Futures Maintain Firmer S/T Tone

• A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh trend high Tuesday. This confirms once again a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and the contract has traded to a fresh high this week. The break higher confirms once again a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• EURUSD is in consolidation mode and for now, maintains a softer tone. The pair is testing support at 1.0774, the 50-day EMA and an important short-term pivot support. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bearish theme and open 1.0693, the Nov 14 low. The EURGBP trend needle continues to point south and the recent sideways move appears to be a bear flag formation - a bearish continuation signal. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a downtrend. The uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact, however, a short-term corrective cycle remains in play for now. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 0.6557, has been pierced. A clear break of the average would expose 0.6503, the 50-day EMA.
• Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and Tuesday’s sell-off has reinforced this condition. The contract has cleared $68.80, the Dec 7 low, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The latest pullback in Gold is considered corrective and this is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Attention is on $1978.4, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced. A clear break would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
• Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. The break on Nov 29 above 132.09, the Nov 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. That break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The latest pullback in Gilt futures has been a correction and this week’s rally confirms this. The contract has started today’s session on a bull note, trading above resistance at 98.97, the Dec 6 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence.

EURUSD TECHS: Challenging Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1081 76.4% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 downleg
• RES 3: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0913/1017 High Dec 1 / High Nov 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.0827 High Dec 12
• PRICE: 1.0789 @ 05:22 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 1.0724 Low Dec 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0693 Low Nov 14
• SUP 3: 1.0665 61.8% retracement of the Oct 3 - Nov 29 rally
• SUP 4: 1.0582 76.4% retracement of the Oct 3 - Nov 29 rally

EURUSD is in consolidation mode and for now, maintains a softer tone. The pair is testing support at 1.0774, the 50-day EMA and an important short-term pivot support. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bearish theme and open 1.0693, the Nov 14 low. On the upside, a strong reversal higher is required to refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1017. Initial resistance is at 1.0827, Tuesday’s high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2800 High May 5 / High Aug 22
• RES 1: 1.2651/1.2733 High Dec 5 / High Nov 29 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2554 @ 05:33 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 1.2540/03 20-day EMA / Low Dec 8
• SUP 2: 1.2455 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2374 Low Nov 17
• SUP 4: 1.2266 Low Nov 14

GBPUSD continues to trade inside a tight range. The trend outlook remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2540, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would signal expose 1.2455, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 1.2733, the Nov 29 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.8725 High Nov 22
• RES 3: 0.8690 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 0.8627 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8616 Low Oct 11
• PRICE: 0.8592 @ 06:13 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 0.8549 Low Dec 11
• SUP 2: 0.8524 Low Sep 5
• SUP 3: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8421 2.0% 10-dma envelope

The EURGBP trend needle continues to point south and the recent sideways move appears to be a bear flag formation - a bearish continuation signal. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on 0.8558, 76.4% of the Aug 23 - Nov 20 bull leg. It has been pierced, a clear break would open 0.8524, Sep 5 low. Initial resistance to watch is at 0.8616, Oct 11 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Key SHort-Term Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 148.51 High Nov 30
• RES 3: 147.46 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 147.32 High Dec 7 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 146.59 High Dec 11
• PRICE: 145.83 @ 06:41 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 144.74 Low Dec 12
• SUP 2: 142.50/141.71 Low Dec 8 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 140.71 76.4% of the Jul 14 - Nov 13 bull run
• SUP 4: 139.11 1.764 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing

USDJPY has recovered from its recent low of 141.71 on Dec 7. Short-term gains are considered corrective with key short-term resistance at 147.32, the Dec 7 high. A clear break of this level would undermine the bearish theme. Last week’s impulsive sell-off confirmed the break of trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low. This strengthens a bearish threat and signals scope for a continuation lower towards 140.71 next, a Fibonacci retracement point.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 159.65 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 159.51 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 158.67 High Dec 7 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 157.68 High Dec 8
• PRICE: 157.27 @ 06:57 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 155.68/153.23 Low Dec 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 152.24 3.764 proj of the Nov 16 - 21 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 150.92 Low Jun 14

EURJPY traded sharply lower on Dec 7 and this strengthens a bearish theme. The recent recovery from that day’s 153.23 low is considered corrective and key short-term resistance to watch is at 158.67, the Dec 7 high. A break would signal scope for a continuation higher. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would signal potential for a move towards 151.42, the Jul 28 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 0.6821 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 0.6747 76.4% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6724 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.6623/91 High Dec 5 / 4 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6552 @ 07:57 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 0.6557/26 20-day EMA / Low Dec 07
• SUP 2: 0.6503 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
• SUP 4: 0.6360 Low Nov 14

The uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact, however, a short-term corrective cycle remains in play for now. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 0.6557, has been pierced. A clear break of the average would expose 0.6503, the 50-day EMA. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend. The bull trigger has been defined at 0.6691, the Dec 4 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.3855/3899 High Nov 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.3777 High Nov 16
• RES 2: 1.3712 High Nov 24
• RES 1: 1.3639 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3605 @ 08:04 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 1.3480 Low Dec 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 11.3417 Low Sep 29
• SUP 3: 1.3401 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.3381 Low Sep 19 and a key support

The USDCAD trend outlook remains bearish and the recent recovery appears to be a correction. The breach of trendline support on Nov 24, drawn from the Jul 14 low, strengthens the current downtrend and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 1.3417 next, the Sep 29 low. Initial firm resistance is at 1.3639, the 50-day EMA. A break of this hurdle is required to ease the current bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 136.39 2.50 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 136.12 2.382 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 136.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 135.81 High Dec 7
• PRICE: 135.25 @ 05:00 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 133.91 Low Dec 4
• SUP 2: 133.18 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 132.09 High Nov 17 and a recent breakout point
• SUP 4: 130.47 Low Nov 24 and key support

Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. The break on Nov 29 above 132.09, the Nov 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. That break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and sights are on the 136.00 handle next. Initial firm support lies at 133.18, the 20-day EMA. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 119.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 118.820 3.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: 118.584 2.764 proj of the Nov 14 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 118.480 High Dec 8
• PRICE: 117.990 @ 05:10 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 117.690 Low Dec 5
• SUP 2: 117.239 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 116.650 High Nov 17 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 116.390 Low Nov 28

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and the latest pullback is considered corrective. On Nov 28, the contract cleared 116.65, the Nov 17 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Sep 28. The break paves the way for 118.584 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 117.239, the 20-day EMA. The short-term trend condition is overbought. A corrective pullback would unwind this condition.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 106.621 1.382 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 3: 106.527 1.236 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 2: 106.375 1.00 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 1: 106.100/290 High Dec 12 / 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 105.985 @ 05:51 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 105.955 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 105.835 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 105.780 Low Dec 1
• SUP 4: 105.640 Low Nov 29

Trend conditions in Schatz futures remain bullish and the latest pullback appears to be a correction - for now. A deeper retracement would allow an overbought condition to unwind. Resistance at 105.660, the Aug 17 high, was breached on Nov 17, strengthening current bullish conditions. This signals scope for a climb towards 106.375, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 105.780, the Nov 30 low.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 100.12 1.50 proj of the Nov 24 - 29 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 100.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 99.80 1.382 proj of the Nov 24 - 29 - 30 price swing
• RES 1: 99.48 Intraday high
• PRICE: 99.27 @ 08:07 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 97.18/96.10 20-day EMA / Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 95.25 Low Nov 24 and key support
• SUP 3: 95.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 94.74 2.618 proj of the Nov 17 - 20 - 22 price swing

The latest pullback in Gilt futures has been a correction and this week’s rally confirms this. The contract has started today’s session on a bull note, trading above resistance at 98.97, the Dec 6 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The break higher opens 99.80, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, support to watch lies at 97.18, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 117.81 1.618 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 117.44 1.50 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 117.22 High Dec 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 116.37 @ Close Dec 12
• SUP 1: 114.70/114.13 20-day EMA / Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 112.70 Low Nov 24 and a key support
• SUP 3: 111.53 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 110.50 Low Nov 7

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play and recent gains reinforced the bullish condition. The break of resistance at 114.11, Nov 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 19. Potential is for a climb towards 117.44 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term trend support has been defined at 112.70, the Nov 24 low. Initial support is at 114.70, the 20-day EMA. A move lower would be considered corrective.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4665.50 2.50 proj of the Oct 27 - Nov 3 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 3: 4636.70 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2009 downleg
• RES 2: 4608.00 High Jun 2007 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4565.00 High Dec 17
• PRICE: 4542.00 @ 05:35 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 4463.00/4411.50 Low Dec 6 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4321.00 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4238.00 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 4185.00 Low Nov 9 and 10

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh trend high Tuesday. This confirms once again a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, signalling a rising cycle. The focus is on 4608.00, the Jun 2007 high and a key resistance. Support to watch is at 4411.50, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Path Of Least Resistance Remains Up

• RES 4: 4808.25 High Jan 4 2022
• RES 3: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4738.50 High Jul 27 and key resistance
• RES 1: 4705.25 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4701.75 @ 06:45 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 4602.23 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4530.35 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4420.25.25 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 4354.25 Low Nov 10

A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and the contract has traded to a fresh high this week. The break higher confirms once again a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 4738.50, the Jul 27 high and a key resistance. Initial support is 4602.23, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G4) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $87.12 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $84.61 - High Nov 30 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: $78.49/81.38 - 20- and 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $76.66 - High Dec 12 and a key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $72.65 @ 07:03 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: $71.45 - Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: $69.86 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 3: $66.90 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4: $64.81 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing

Brent futures remain in a downtrend and yesterday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The break lower confirms, once again, a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This signals scope for a move towards $71.45 next, the Jun 23 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $76.66, Tuesday’s high. A break is required to ease bearish pressure.

WTI TECHS: (F4) Southbound

• RES 4: $79.65 - High Nov 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 3: $77.27 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $73.90 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $71.96 - High Dec 12
• PRICE: $68.16 @ 07:12 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: $67.28 - Jun 23 low
• SUP 2: $65.00 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 3: $63.32 - 2.236 proj of the Nov 14 - 16 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Round number support

Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and Tuesday’s sell-off has reinforced this condition. The contract has cleared $68.80, the Dec 7 low, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on $67.28, the Jun 23 low. Key short-term resistance is at $71.96, the Dec 12 high.

GOLD TECHS: Testing Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $2206.6 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 1: $2003.9/2041.3 - 20-day EMA / High Dec 5
• PRICE: $1976.9 @ 07:25 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: $1978.4/1975.9 - 50-day EMA / Low Dec 11
• SUP 2: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16
• SUP 4: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13

The latest pullback in Gold is considered corrective and this is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Attention is on $1978.4, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced. A clear break would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Last week’s early gains reinforce the primary bullish condition. The yellow metal traded to a fresh all-time high of $2135.4 and this signals potential for a climb towards $2177.6 next, a Fibonacci projection.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $26.397 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $24.361/25.761 - High Dec 6 / 4 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $22.699 @ 08:07 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: $22.617 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver failed to hold on to last week’s gains and reversed sharply lower. For now, the move down is considered corrective and the pullback is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. The 50-day EMA has been breached and this signals scope for a deeper pullback, potentially towards $21.883, the Nov 13 low and a key support. On the upside, $25.761 is the bull trigger, the Dec 4 high.