MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Futures Maintain S/T Recovery

Price Signal Summary – Bund Futures Maintain S/T Recovery

• S&P E-minis trend conditions remain bullish and the latest pullback is, for now, considered corrective. Last week’s bounce from 4114.00, May 24 low, means that support around the 50-day EMA remains intact. The average intersects at 4134.83 and a clear break of it is required to signal a reversal. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded lower again Wednesday and in the process, cleared the 50-day EMA and support at 4252.00, the May 25 low. Price has also pierced support at 4233.00, the May 4 low and a key short-term level.
• The current short-term corrective cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is trading at its most recent highs. A continuation higher would open 1.2493, the May 18 high. The primary short-term trend direction is unchanged and remains down. USDJPY bullish conditions remain intact and a pullback is considered corrective - for now. The pair has this week tested resistance at the top of the bull channel, drawn from the Jan 16 low which intersects at 140.91. AUDUSD remains bearish and the pair traded lower again Wednesday as the current bear cycle extends. Fresh lows confirm a resumption of the downtrend and maintain the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
• The bear cycle in Gold remains intact and short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. The yellow metal has this week pierced $1942.4, trendline support drawn from Nov 3 2022. A clear breach of this trendline would reinforce bearish conditions. WTI futures remain in a bear mode position. The strong sell-off this week has resulted in a break of support at $69.39, the May 15 low. The clear breach strengthens bearish conditions and paves the way for weakness towards $63.90, the May 4 low.
• Bund futures maintain a firmer tone as the contract extends this week’s recovery. Price has cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this strengthens the current bull cycle. Gilt futures remain in a bear mode position, however, price has recovered from last week’s low. The move higher is considered corrective and the trend condition remains bearish. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a downtrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.1007 High May 10
• RES 3: 1.0905 High May 16
• RES 2: 1.0811/42 20- and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.0759 High May 26
• PRICE: 1.0679 @ 07:25 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 1.0635 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 1.0608 Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: 1.0551 Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 1.0516 Low Mar 15 and a key support

The EURUSD trend needle continues to point south and the pair traded lower again Wednesday. Fresh trend lows this week reinforce bearish conditions. The 1.0653 objective has been breached, 76.4% of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 rally. This opens 1.0551, the Mar 16 low. A firm resistance is seen at 1.0811, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this average is required to ease current bearish pressure.

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.2680 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2547/2641 High May 16 / 11
• RES 2: 1.2493 High May 18
• RES 1: 1.2450 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2437 @ 07:57 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 1.2308 Low May 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: 1.2242 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - May 10 bull run
• SUP 4: 1.2213 Low Mar 27

The current short-term corrective cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is trading at its most recent highs. A continuation higher would open 1.2493, the May 18 high. The primary short-term trend direction is unchanged and remains down. A resumption of this trend would open 1.2242, the 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - May 10 bull run. The bear trigger is 1.2308, the May 25 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Has Entered Oversold Territory

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 3: 0.8814 High May 4
• RES 2: 0.8742 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8651/8695 High May 31 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8595 @ 08:13 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 0.8584 Low May 31 and intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.8562 Low Dec 13 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8547 Low Dec 1 2022 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8522 Low Aug 30 2022

EURGBP printed a fresh 2023 low Wednesday, printing a fourth consecutive session of lower lows. The 14d RSI is technically oversold for the first time since March 2021 - and bearish developments in the DMA space also signal short-term downside momentum: the 50- and 200-dmas are on the verge of forming a death cross (50-dma < 200-dma). The focus is on 0.8562 next, the Dec 13 low. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8695 the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Channel Top Offers Resistance - For Now

• RES 4: 142.25 High Nov 21 2022
• RES 3: 142.15 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 141.61 High Nov 23 2022
• RES 1: 140.91/93 Bull channel top from the Jan 16 low / High May 30
• PRICE: 139.34 @ 08:26 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 138.83 Low May 25
• SUP 2: 138.23 Low May 24
• SUP 3: 137.93 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 137.43 Low May 19

USDJPY bullish conditions remain intact and a pullback is considered corrective - for now. The pair has this week tested resistance at the top of the bull channel, drawn from the Jan 16 low which intersects at 140.91. This is a key resistance and a clear break of it would reinforce bullish conditions and open 141.61, the Nov 23 2022 high. For bears, a stronger reversal would highlight a potential top. Key support to watch is 137.93, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective - For Now

• RES 4: 152.81 1.50 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 150.12/ 151.07 High May 31 / 29
• PRICE: 149.24 @ 08:35 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 148.59 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 147.49/146.79 13 50-day EMA / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 146.13 Low May 11 and a key support
• SUP 4: 145.67 High Mar 31

EURJPY maintains a short-term bullish tone and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Last week’s move higher resulted in a breach of 150.32, 76.4% of the May 2 - 11 sell-off. The break opens 151.61, the May 2 high and a bull trigger. The 50-day EMA, which intersects at 147.49, remains intact and is a key support. A clear break of it is required to signal a reversal. Initial support lies at 148.59, the May 31 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: 0.6818 High May 10 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6710 High May 16
• RES 2: 0.6604/59 20- and 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6559/74 High May 30 / Low Apr 28
• PRICE: 0.6489 @ 08:44 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 0.6458 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10 2022
• SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022

AUDUSD remains bearish and the pair traded lower again Wednesday as the current bear cycle extends. Fresh lows confirm a resumption of the downtrend and maintain the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on the 0.6403 Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a breach of 0.6818 is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.6659, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Recent Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3730 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - Apr 14 low
• RES 2: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 1: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
• PRICE: 1.3580 @ 08:48 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 1.3542 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3485/3404 Low May 23 / 16
• SUP 3: 1.3363/15 Low May 11 / 8
• SUP 4: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support

USDCAD bullish conditions remain intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Attention is on resistance at 1.3668, the Apr 28 high and a key level. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the case for bulls and pave the way for a move towards 1.3695, the Apr 28 high. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 1.3485, the May 23 low. A break of this level would signal a potential short-term reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Clears The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 138.09 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 137.29 High May 11 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 136.75 High May 12
• RES 1: 136.40 High May 31
• PRICE: 135.84 @ 06:08 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 135.01/134.15 50-day EMA / Low May 30
• SUP 2: 132.83 Low May 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 132.71 76.4%retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 132.37 Low Mar 10

Bund futures maintain a firmer tone as the contract extends this week’s recovery. Price has cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this strengthens the current bull cycle. A continuation higher would open 136.38, the May 16 high ahead of a key resistance at 137.29, the May 11 high. On the downside, initial support lies at 134.15, the May 30 low. A break is required to signal bearish reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Short-Term Recovery Extends

• RES 4: 119.120 High May 4 and key resistance
• RES 3: 119.020 High May 11
• RES 2: 118.610 High May 16
• RES 1: 118.270 High May
• PRICE: 118.020 @ 06:25 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 117.585 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 117.080/116.550 Low May 30 / 26
• SUP 3: 116.420 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.170 Low Mar 13

Bobl futures started the week on a firmer note and the contract has continued to appreciate. Price is also trading above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this strengthens the short-term bull cycle. A continuation higher would open 118.610, the May 11 high. Further out, key short-term resistance is at 119.120, the May 4 high. On the downside, initial support is at yesterday’s low of 117.585, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Short-Term Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 106.020 High May 11
• RES 3: 105.910 High May 16
• RES 2: 105.775High May 17
• RES 1: 105.670 High May 31
• PRICE: 105.580 @ 06:37 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 105.490 Yesterday’s low
• SUP 2: 105.300/160 Low May 30 / 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally

Schatz futures traded higher again yesterday. The contract has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This has strengthened bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards 105.775, the May 17 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger, has been defined at 105.160, the May 26 low. Initial support is seen at yesterday’s low of 105.490 where a break would undermine the current bullish theme.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 97.78 High May 23
• RES 2: 97.58 Low May 19
• RES 1: 97.01 High May 31
• PRICE: 96.79 @ Close May 31
• SUP 1: 94.91/21 Low May 30 / 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 94.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 93.45 1.618 projection of the Feb 2 - 28 - Mar 20 swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 92.66 Low Oct 14 2022 (cont)

Gilt futures remain in a bear mode position, however, price has recovered from last week’s low. The move higher is considered corrective and the trend condition remains bearish. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on the 94.00 handle next. Initial resistance is at yesterday’s high of 97.01 and the bear trigger is 94.21, the May 26 low.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Impulsive Rally Extends

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.17 High Mar 24 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 116.97 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 116.21 High May 31
• PRICE: 115.96 @ Close May 31
• SUP 1: 114.06/112.60 Low May 30 / 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 111.05 Low Mar 8
• SUP 4: 110.79 Low Mar 7

BTP futures traded higher again Wednesday. The contract is through the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this strengthens current short-term bullish conditions. Yesterday’s gains resulted in a breach of 115.89, the May 11 high. The clear break of this level exposes 117.17 further out, Mar 24 high. On the downside, initial support lies at 114.06, the May 30 low. A break of this level would signal a possible reversal.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Clears Support

• RES 4: 4457.50 0.5 proj of the Mar 20 - Apr 21 - May 4 price swing
• RES 3: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 1: 4305.40/4362.00 20-day EMA / High May 29
• PRICE: 4245.00 @ 07:01 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 4216.00 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded lower again Wednesday and in the process, cleared the 50-day EMA and support at 4252.00, the May 25 low. Price has also pierced support at 4233.00, the May 4 low and a key short-term level. A clear break of 4233.00 would signal a potential reversal and highlight a stronger bearish theme. This would open the 4200.00 handle. The bull trigger is at 4409.50, the Nov 18 2021 high (cont) and is a major resistance.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 4327.50 High Aug 16 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4288.00 High Aug 19 2022
• RES 1: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a medium-term bull trigger
• PRICE: 4193.75 @ 07:00 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 4165.17/4114.00 20-day EMA / Low May 24
• SUP 2: 4062.25 Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: 4052.50 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4022.75 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - May 1 bull leg

S&P E-minis trend conditions remain bullish and the latest pullback is, for now, considered corrective. Last week’s bounce from 4114.00, May 24 low, means that support around the 50-day EMA remains intact. The average intersects at 4134.83 and a clear break of it is required to signal a reversal. Key resistance is at 4244.00, the Feb 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend that started on Mar 13.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $84.56 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.47 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $77.71/80.08 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 28
• RES 1: $76.10 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $73.38 @ 07:53 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: $71.20 - Low May 4
• SUP 2: $70.06 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

Brent futures traded lower again Wednesday. This reinforces short-term bearish conditions and this week’s move lower has resulted in a breach of support at $73.25, the May 15 low. The clear break of this level signals scope for weakness towards $71.20 the May 4 low and $70.06, the Mar 20 low and key support. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting a downtrend. Key resistance is at $77.71, the 50-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (N3) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $80.93 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.00 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.74 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $73.82/74.73 - 50-day EMA / High May 24
• PRICE: $68.44 @ 08:10 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: $66.46 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - 24 rally
• SUP 2: $63.90 - Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures remain in a bear mode position. The strong sell-off this week has resulted in a break of support at $69.39, the May 15 low. The clear breach strengthens bearish conditions and paves the way for weakness towards $63.90, the May 4 low. On the upside, key resistance is at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at $73.82, where a break would instead be seen as a bullish development.

GOLD TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $2022.6/2063.0 - High May 12 / 4
• RES 2: $1985.3 - High May 24 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $1975.4. 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1956.8 @ 08:29 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: $1932.2/18.3 - Low May 31 / Low Mar 17
• SUP 2: $1903.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle

The bear cycle in Gold remains intact and short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. The yellow metal has this week pierced $1942.4, trendline support drawn from Nov 3 2022. A clear breach of this trendline would reinforce bearish conditions and pave the way for a move towards $1903.5, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Clearance of this level is required to signal a short-term reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5
• RES 1: $23.815/24.492 - 20-day EMA / Low Apr 25
• PRICE: $23.350 @ 08:38 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: $22.682 - Low May 26
• SUP 2: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $22.157 - Low Mar 21
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

The Silver trend condition is unchanged and remains bearish. The May 11 sell-off confirmed a double top reversal following the break of $24.492, the Apr 25 low. The subsequent bearish extension has reinforced the importance of this reversal signal. Sights are set on $22.284 next, a Fibonacci retracement level. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at $24.492, the double top mid-point. Short-term gains appear to be a correction.