MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Futures Remain in a Downtrend

Price Signal Summary – Bund Futures Remain in a Downtrend

• S&P E-Minis trend signals are bearish and this week’s low print reinforces this condition. The contract has recovered from its recent lows. The move higher is considered corrective and attention is on 3946.36, the 50-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have recovered from recent lows and the contract is trading higher today. Price has arrived at the 20-day EMA, at 3886.10 - a key short-term resistance.
• EURUSD is consolidating and remains below last week’s highs. The latest pullback is considered corrective. The recent break higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. EURGBP edged higher Wednesday and the outlook remains positive. Price rallied on Dec 15 and in the process cleared the 50-day EMA at 0.8663. The break higher improved the short-term outlook for bulls and signals scope for a climb towards resistance at 0.8829, the Nov 9 high and a bull trigger. AUDUSD is trading higher today as price recovers from Tuesday’s low of 0.6629. The recovery means that support around the 50-day EMA - at 0.6664 - remains intact.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent move lower is considered corrective. Key short-term support to watch is $1765.9, Dec 5 low. The yellow metal breached $1810.0 last week, Dec 5 high, to resume the uptrend. Trend conditions in WTI futures remain bearish. However, recent gains have highlighted a bullish corrective cycle and this has resulted in break of the 20-day EMA, at $76.94.
• Bund futures remain in a downtrend - the current bear phase started Dec 7 and price is trading at recent lows. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at 139.13, Nov 28 low, strengthening a bearish threat. Gilt futures remain bearish and the contract traded lower Tuesday, extending the current bearish leg. This week’s price action has resulted in a clear break of support at 103.54, the Nov 21 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.0851 High Apr 25
• RES 3: 1.0812 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.0787 High May 30 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.0736 2.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• PRICE: 1.0646 @ 05:41 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 1.0528 Low Dec 13
• SUP 2: 1.0512 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0443 Low Dec 7 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.0323 50-day EMA

EURUSD is consolidating and remains below last week’s highs. The latest pullback is considered corrective. The recent break higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.0736, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support to watch is at 1.0443, Dec 7 low, where a break would signal a short-term top. Initial support is 1.0528, the Dec 13 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27
• RES 3: 1.2599 High Jun 7
• RES 2: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2242/2446 High Dec 19 / 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2119 @ 06:01 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 1.2054 Low Dec 1
• SUP 2: 1.1912 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1901 Low Nov 30 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1779 Low Nov 21

GBPUSD traded lower Wednesday and remains closer to its recent lows. The short-term outlook appears bearish. This follows the move lower on Dec 15. Attention is on the first key support at 1.2107, the Dec 7 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would open 1.1901, the Nov 30 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.2446, the Dec 14 high. A turn higher and a break of this hurdle, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

EURGBP TECHS: Holding On To Its Latest Gains

• RES 4: 0.8907 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8867 High Oct 12
• RES 2: 0.8829 High Nov 09 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8790 High Dec 21
• PRICE: 0.8781 @ 06:27 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 0.8667/8593 50-day EMA / Low Dec 15
• SUP 2: 0.8560/47 200-dma / Low Dec 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28

EURGBP edged higher Wednesday and the outlook remains positive. Price rallied on Dec 15 and in the process cleared the 50-day EMA at 0.8663. The break higher improved the short-term outlook for bulls and signals scope for a climb towards resistance at 0.8829, the Nov 9 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, key support has been defined at 0.8547, the Dec 1 low, where a break would signal a continuation of the downtrend.

USDJPY TECHS: Bears Still In The Driver's Seat

• RES 4: 139.45 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 138.17 High Dec 15
• RES 2: 136.76 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 134.54 Low Dec 14
• PRICE: 131.79 @ 06:43 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 130.58 Low Dec 20
• SUP 2: 130.41 Low Aug 2 and a key support
• SUP 3: 129.51 Low Jun 2
• SUP 4: 128.44 1.236 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing

The USDJPY trend outlook remains bearish following Tuesday's sell-off. Key support at 131.74 was cleared, opening losses toward early August lows of 130.41. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and price remains well below the 20-day EMA, at 136.76. The daily RSI is nearing oversold territory, which suggests progress near-term, could slow down. The overarching theme remains negative for now.

EURJPY TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 146.73 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 145.83 High Dec 20
• RES 2: 143.50 Low Dec 14 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 142.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 140.36 @ 06:46 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 138.81 Low Dec 20
• SUP 2: 138.14 4.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 138.06 Low Sep 28
• SUP 4: 137.40 Low Sep 26 and a key support

EURJPY traded sharply lower Tuesday as the JPY rallied - the cross remains bearish. A key support at 140.77, the Dec 2 low and a bear trigger, has been cleared. This marks a resumption of the bear cycle that started on Oct 21 and opens 138.06, the Sep 28 low and 137.40, the Sep 26 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at 143.50, the Dec 14 low and a recent breakout level. Short-term gains would likely be a correction.

AUDUSD TECHS: Finds Support Just Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.6976 2.00 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6956 High Aug 30
• RES 2: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 1: 0.6893 High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6767 @ 07:55 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 0.6629 Low Dec 20 and key short-term support.
• SUP 2: 0.6585 Low Nov 21 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 0.6531 50.0% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 climb
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

AUDUSD is trading higher today as price recovers from Tuesday’s low of 0.6629. The recovery means that support around the 50-day EMA - at 0.6664 - remains intact. A clear break of the EMA is required to suggest scope for a deeper pullback and 0.6629, this week’s low, is seen as a key short-term support. A continuation higher would refocus attention on 0.6893, the Dec 13 high and the bull trigger. A break would resume the recent uptrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.3855 High Oct 21 - Nov 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 1: 1.3705 High Dec 16
• PRICE: 1.3578@ 08:01 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 1.3519 Low Dec 14
• SUP 2: 1.3414/3385 Former trendline resistance / Low Dec 5
• SUP 3: 1.3317/3226 Low Nov 24/25 / Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD short-term conditions remain bullish. The recent break of trendline resistance, drawn from the Oct 13 high, strengthened the bullish argument and this has opened 1.3751, the Nov 4 high. On the downside, a break below the former trendline resistance - at 1.3414 - would be bearish and expose 1.3385, the Dec 5 low. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.3519, the Dec 14 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Bear Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: 140.78 High Dec 15
• RES 3: 138.99 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 138.62 High Dec 16
• RES 1: 137.76 High De 19
• PRICE: 135.84 @ 05:16 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 135.60 Low Dec 21
• SUP 2: 135.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 134.50 Low Nov 8 and a key support
• SUP 4: 134.02 Low Oct 21 (cont)

Bund futures remain in a downtrend - the current bear phase started Dec 7 and price is trading at recent lows. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at 139.13, Nov 28 low, strengthening a bearish threat. Furthermore, a number of additional support points have been cleared. The focus is on 135.00 next. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 138.99, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Trading At Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 119.230 High Dec 15
• RES 3: 118.330 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 118.260 Low Nov 28 and a recent breakout point
• RES 1: 117.720 High Dec 16
• PRICE: 116.8700 @ 05:18 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 116.800 Low Dec 21
• SUP 2: 116.773 1.764 proj of the Dec 7 - 12 - 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 116.410 2.00 proj of the Dec 7 - 12 - 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.047 2.236 proj of the Dec 7 - 12 - 13 price swing

Bobl futures remain bearish following the recent sharp sell-off that resulted in a break of support at 118.260, the Dec 13 low. Price is trading at its recent lows and this week’s move lower has reinforced the bearish threat. The extension signals scope for 116.773 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 118.260, the recent breakout level. The 20-day EMA intersects at 118.330.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 106.875 High Dec 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 106.680 High Dec 13
• RES 2: 106.570 High Dec 15
• RES 1: 106.005/106.335 High Dec 16 / Low Nov 28
• PRICE: 105.755 @ 05:35 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 105.735 Low Dec 21
• SUP 2: 105.660 2.00 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 105.540 2.236 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 105.465 2.382 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing

Schatz futures remain soft following the recent sell-off - this resulted in a break of support at 106.335, the Nov 28 low. The break lower, signals potential for a deeper pullback that has opened 105.660 and 105.540, Fibonacci projections. On the upside, 106.335 is a firm resistance. A break of this level is required to suggest a potential reversal. This would open 106.680, the Dec 13 high.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 106.95 High Dec 2
• RES 3: 106.18 High Dec 12
• RES 2: 105.29 High Dec 15 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 103.67/104.31 High Dec 19 / 16
• PRICE: 101.38 @ Close Dec 21
• SUP 1: 100.68 Low Dec 20
• SUP 2: 100.00/99.92 Psychological support / Low Nov 8 (cont)
• SUP 3: 98.15 Low Oct 24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 97.33 61.8% retracement of the Oct 12 - Nov 25 bull phase

Gilt futures remain bearish and the contract traded lower Tuesday, extending the current bearish leg. This week’s price action has resulted in a clear break of support at 103.54, the Nov 21 low. The move has strengthened the current downtrend and signals scope for a deeper pullback - towards the 100.00 psychological support. A break would open 98.15, the Oct 4 low (cont). Initial firm resistance is seen at 105.29, the Dec 15 high.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 118.96 High Dec 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 117.93 High Dec 13
• RES 1: 113.23/116.43 High Dec 16 / High Dec 15
• PRICE: 111.16 @ Close Dec 21
• SUP 1: 110.49 Low Dec 20
• SUP 2: 110.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 109.46 Low Nov 8
• SUP 4: 107.51 Low Oct 24

BTP futures remain soft following last week’s following recent bearish price action. Price has recently cleared support at 115.01, the Nov 28 low and this strengthened bearish conditions. Attention is on the 110.00 handle. On the upside, initial firm resistance is far-off at 117.93, Dec 13 high. A break would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 118.96, the Dec 7 high. First resistance is 113.23, the Dec 16 high.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H3) Pierces The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 116-23+ 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 115-26 2.00 proj of the Oct 21 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 2: 115-14 50% Aug - Oct Downleg
• RES 1: 114-23/115-11+ High Dec 19 / 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 113-25 @ 15:24 GMT Dec 21
• SUP 1: 113-09+ Intraday low
• SUP 2: 112-11+ Low Nov 21 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 112-05+ Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 110-22 Low Nov 10

Treasury futures remain soft. Tuesday’s move lower resulted in a break of support at 113-22+, the Dec 12 low and a key short-term level. This undermines the recent bull theme and instead suggests scope for a deeper retracement. The focus is on 112-11+, the Nov 21 low. Note that the contract has pierced the 50-day EMA - at 113-15. A clear break would strengthen the bear threat. Key resistance is at 115-11+, the Dec 13 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 4132.60 76.4/% of the Nov ‘21 - Oct ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 3: 4049.50 High Feb 23 (cont)
• RES 2: 4043.00 High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 3908.00 Low Dec 9
• PRICE: 3891.00 @ 05:52 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3646.50 50% retracement of the Sep - Dec bull cycle
• SUP 3: 3580.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3552.90 61.8% retracement of the Sep - Dec bull cycle

EUROSTOXX 50 futures have recovered from recent lows and the contract is trading higher today. Price has arrived at the 20-day EMA, at 3886.10 - a key short-term resistance. A clear breach of this hurdle would suggest potential for a stronger recovery. Gains are considered corrective - for now. A reversal lower and a break of 3753.00, the Dec 20 low, would confirm a resumption of the recent downtrend. The bull trigger is at 4043.00, Dec 13 high.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4250.00 High Aug 26
• RES 3: 4194.25 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4043.00/4180.00 High Dec 15 / 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 3946.36 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3914.75 @ 06:54 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 3778.45 61.8% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 2: 3735.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 3670.00 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 4: 3735.00 Low Oct 21

S&P E-Minis trend signals are bearish and this week’s low print reinforces this condition. The contract has recovered from its recent lows. The move higher is considered corrective and attention is on 3946.36, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this hurdle is required to suggest potential for a stronger recovery. On the downside, a reversal lower and a break of 3803.50, the Dec 20 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G3) Pierces The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $91.63 - High Nov 17
• RES 3: $89.37 - High Dec 1
• RES 2: $85.37 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $82.71/83.18 - Intraday high / High Dec 15
• PRICE: $82.25 @ 06:58 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: $78.10/75.11 - Low Dec 13 / Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $72.33 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $68.31 - 1.236 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing

Recent gains in Brent futures have highlighted a bullish corrective cycle. Price has again pierced resistance at $82.05, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal potential for a stronger recovery and open the 50-day EMA, at $85.37. The broader trend outlook is bearish. A stronger reversal lower would signal the end of the correction and refocus attention on the Dec 9 low of $75.11 - the bear trigger.

WTI TECHS: (G3) Break Higher Exposes The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $88.10 - High Nov 11
• RES 3: $83.27 - High Dec 1
• RES 2: $79.73 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $78.87 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $78.44 @ 07:02 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: $73.33/70.31 - Low Dec 13 / 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $68.19 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 3: $65.47 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $63.28 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

Trend conditions in WTI futures remain bearish. However, recent gains have highlighted a bullish corrective cycle and this has resulted in break of the 20-day EMA, at $76.94. The move above this hurdle signals scope for an extension towards $79.73, the 50-day EMA and a key resistance. On the downside, a stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger which lies at $70.31, the Dec 9 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Sequence Remains Intact

• RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 3: $1842.7 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $1833.0 - High Jun 29
• RES 1: $1824.5 - High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1814.3 @ 07:18 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: $1782.9/65.9 - 20-day EMA / Low Dec 5
• SUP 2: $1751.1 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1729.0 - Low Nov 23 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $1702.3 - Low Nov 9

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent move lower is considered corrective. Key short-term support to watch is $1765.9, Dec 5 low. The yellow metal breached $1810.0 last week, Dec 5 high, to resume the uptrend. This maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and opens $1842.7, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a break of $1765.9 would signal scope for a deeper pullback.

SILVER TECHS: Fresh Trend High Resumes The Uptrend

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 2: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $24.299 - High Dec 21
• PRICE: $23.824 @ 07:21 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: $22.557 - Low Dec 16 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $21.708 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $20.872 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: $20.585 - Low Nov 21

The trend outlook in Silver remains bullish and moving average studies are in a bull mode position. Furthermore, this week’s fresh trend highs highlight a continuation of the bull cycle and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $24.729, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at $22.557, the Dec 16 low.