MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Pullback Threatens Recent Bullish Theme

Price Signal Summary – Bund Pullback Threatens Recent Bullish Theme

• S&P E-Minis traded higher last week to confirm a resumption of the current uptrend. The move lower Monday is likely a correction. The recent breach of resistance has resulted in a print above the 4100.00 handle and an extension higher would open 4180.00, the Dec 13 high and a bull trigger. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are consolidating above support at 4097.00, Jan 19 low. The contract is also trading just ahead of key short-term resistance at 4206.00, Jan 18 high. A break of this level would resume the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 4215.00, a Fibonacci projection.
• EURUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat, however, the pair has pulled back from recent highs. The move lower is considered corrective with support at 1.0795, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and allow for a deeper correction. USDJPY is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode. The trend direction is down. Price is trading below key short-term resistance at 131.58, the Jan 18 high and below the 20-day EMA, at 130.62. A resumption of weakness would open 126.81, a Fibonacci projection. AUDUSD is softer today, extending its latest pullback. The move lower is considered corrective and the uptrend remains intact. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at 0.7063, the Jan 18 high.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent cycle highs confirm an extension of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. WTI futures traded sharply lower Monday and in the process breached support at $78.45, the Jan 19 low. The move lower undermines the recent bull theme and a continuation would signal potential for an extension towards $72.74, the Jan 5 low.
• Bund futures traded lower Monday, extending the recent break of support at 137.53, the Jan 16 low. The move lower threatens a recent bullish theme and the clear break of 137.53 signals scope for a deeper retracement near-term. Gilt futures remain in an uptrend and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent trend highs have confirmed a resumption of the short-term uptrend. The move signals potential for a climb towards 107.06, the Nov 24 high and a key resistance.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Watching Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1054 High Apr 4 2022
• RES 3: 1.1022 3.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - Oct 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0954 High Apr 11, 2022
• RES 1: 1.0929 High Jan 26
• PRICE: 1.0837 @ 06:11 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: 1.0795/0767 20-day EMA / Low Jan 18
• SUP 2: 1.0634 Low Jan 9
• SUP 3: 1.0626/1.0484 50-day EMA / Low Jan 6
• SUP 4: 1.0440 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band

EURUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat, however, the pair has pulled back from recent highs. The move lower is considered corrective with support at 1.0795, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and allow for a deeper correction. This would open 1.0767, the Jan 18 low. Note that the trend is overbought. On the upside, the bull trigger is 1.0929, the Jan 26 high. A break would resume the uptrend.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Direction Remains Up

• RES 4: 1.2599 High Jun 7
• RES 3: 1.2558 High Jub 9, 2022
• RES 2: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2448 High Jan 23 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2344 @ 06:15 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: 1.2278/64 20-day EMA / Low Jan 24
• SUP 2: 1.2126 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD is in consolidation mode. Pullbacks are considered corrective and the 4-month uptrend remains intact. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position reflecting positive market sentiment and the pair has recently pierced resistance at 1.2446, the Dec 14 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.2506, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2278, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish With Support Intact

• RES 4: 0.8992 61.8% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8907 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8852/97 High Jan 25 / 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8781 @ 06:32 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: 0.8762/22 50-day EMA / Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.8691 Low Dec 19
• SUP 3: 0.8630 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Jan 13 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.8593 Low Dec 15

EURGBP is unchanged and remains below last week’s highs. Key short-term support lies at 0.8722, the Jan 19 low. A break of this level is required to reinstate a recent bearish threat. For bulls, a resumption of gains would expose resistance at 0.8897, the Jan 13 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started early December last year.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 134.77/81 High Jan 6 / 23.6% Oct - Jan downleg
• RES 3: 133.51 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 132.87 High Jan 11
• RES 1: 130.62/131.58 20-day EMA / High Jan 18
• PRICE: 130.23 @ 06:38 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: 128.36/127.23 Low Jan 20 / 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.81 1.382 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 126.36 Low May 24 and a key support
• SUP 4: 125.49 1.50 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing

USDJPY is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode. The trend direction is down. Price is trading below key short-term resistance at 131.58, the Jan 18 high and below the 20-day EMA, at 130.62. A resumption of weakness would open 126.81, a Fibonacci projection - the bear trigger is 127.23, Jan 16 low. On the upside, a break of 131.58 would be a bullish development, signal a short-term reversal and open 133.51, the 50-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Flag?

• RES 4: 144.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 143.16 61.8% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 142.86/94 High Jan 11 / High Dec 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 142.30 High Jan 25
• PRICE: 141.15 @ 06:50 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: 140.47/137.92 Low Jan 23 / Low Jan 19
• SUP 2: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 137.03 Low Aug 29
• SUP 4: 136.02 Low Aug 25

EURJPY is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Recent consolidation appears to be a bull flag formation. If correct, the pattern suggests scope for a break higher near-term. The 50-day EMA, at 141.73, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bullish condition and expose key resistance at 142.86, the Jan 11 high. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 137.39, Jan 3 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: 0.7245 2.00 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 2: 0.7172 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 1: 0.7142 High Jan 26
• PRICE: 0.7035 @ 08:01 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: 0.6994/6967 Low Nov 24 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6872 Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6845 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.6688 Low Jan 3 and key support

AUDUSD is softer today, extending its latest pullback. The move lower is considered corrective and the uptrend remains intact. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at 0.7063, the Jan 18 high. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on a move to 0.7172 next, a Fibonacci projection. Short-term support is seen at the 20-day EMA, at 0.6967.

USDCAD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
• RES 1: 1.3521 High Jan 19 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.3416 @ 08:04 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: 1.3300 Low Jan 30
• SUP 2: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3131 0.764 proj of the Oct 13 - Nov 15 - Dec 16 price swing

USDCAD bearish trend conditions remain intact despite Monday’s gains. The move lower last week resulted in a print below 1.3322. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and signal scope for weakness towards 1.3226, the Nov 13 low and the bear trigger. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. On the upside, the pair needs to clear 1.3521, the Jan 19 high, to signal a reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 142.55 High Dec 8
• RES 3: 141.70 High Dec 13
• RES 2: 140.73 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 137.91/139.36 50-day EMA / High Jan 25 and key resistance
• PRICE: 136.61 @ 04:58 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: 136.38 Low Jan 30
• SUP 2: 136.04 Low Jan 10
• SUP 3: 135.71 61.8% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run
• SUP 4: 135.08 Low Jan 4

Bund futures traded lower Monday, extending the recent break of support at 137.53, the Jan 16 low. The move lower threatens a recent bullish theme and the clear break of 137.53 signals scope for a deeper retracement near-term. This opens 136.04, the Jan 10 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 139.36, the Jan 25 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a base and a reversal. Initial resistance is at 137.91, the 50-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 119.310 High Dec 14
• RES 3: 119.086 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 2: 118.880 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 117.823/118.320 50-day EMA / High Jan 25 - a key resistance
• PRICE: 117.100 @ 05:08 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: 117.020 Low Jan 30
• SUP 2: 116.878 61.8% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run
• SUP 3: 116.730 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 116.405 76.4% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run

Bobl futures traded lower Monday, starting the week on a bearish note. The contract has cleared support at 117.560, the Jan 16 low. The clear breach threatens a bullish theme and suggests potential for a deeper pullback that has exposed 116.878, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 118.320, the Jan 25 high. For bulls, a break would be a positive development. Initial resistance is at 117.823, the 50-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Clears Support

• RES 4: 106.370 Low Dec 12
• RES 3: 106.296 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 2: 106.025/106.155 High Jan 25 / 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 105.920 High Jan 30
• PRICE: 105.680 @ 05:19 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: 105.664 61.8% retracement of the Jan 2 - 18 bull cycle
• SUP 2: 105.548 76.4% retracement of the Jan 2 - 18 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 105.480 Low Jan 3
• SUP 4: 105.360 Low Jan 2 and the bear trigger

Schatz futures traded lower Monday and in the process breached support at 105.735, the Jan 16 low. The break lower signals potential for a deeper retracement and this has opened 105.664 and 105.548, Fibonacci retracement points. Firm resistance to watch has been defined at 106.025, Jan 25 high. A break would be bullish and expose the bull trigger at 106.155, the Jan 18 high. Initial resistance is at 105.920, Monday’s high.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 107.06 High Nov 24 and key resistance
• RES 3: 106.23 High Dec 9
• RES 2: 106.18 High Dec 12
• RES 1: 105.05/106.00 High Jan 30 / Round number resistance
• PRICE: 104.58 @ Close Jan 30
• SUP 1: 103.79 Low Jan 23 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 103.21/102.78 Low Jan 17 / High Jan 6
• SUP 3: 102.19/101.40 Low Jan 11 / 10
• SUP 4: 99.97 Low Jan 3

Gilt futures remain in an uptrend and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent trend highs have confirmed a resumption of the short-term uptrend. The move signals potential for a climb towards 107.06, the Nov 24 high and a key resistance. The first objective is 106.00. Initial firm support has been defined at 103.79, the Jan 17 low. A break would threaten the current bullish theme.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 120.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 118.57/96 High Jan 25 / Dec 7 and a key resistance zone
• RES 2: 116.94 High Jan 25 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 115.10 High Jan 27
• PRICE: 113.91 @ Close Jan 30
• SUP 1: 113.46 50.0% retracement of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally
• SUP 2: 112.26 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally
• SUP 3: 111.59 Low Jan 6
• SUP 4: 110.77 Low Jan 4 and 76.4% of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact, however, a short-term bearish phase remains in play and the contract traded lower again on Monday. This has resulted in a break of support at 114.46, the Jan 16 low. The breach threatens the bull theme and signals scope for a deeper pullback. Attention is on 113.46 and 112.26, Fibonacci retracement points. Firm resistance has been defined at 116.94, the Jan 25 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Bull Trigger Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 4269.50 2.236 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 3: 4230.50 High Feb 10, 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4215.00 2.00 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 1: 4206.00 High Jan 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4148.00 @ 05:45 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: 4101.40/4097.00 20-day EMA / Low Jan 19
• SUP 2: 3981.70 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3720.00 Low Nov 10

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are consolidating above support at 4097.00, Jan 19 low. The contract is also trading just ahead of key short-term resistance at 4206.00, Jan 18 high. A break of this level would resume the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 4215.00, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the trend remains overbought. A pullback, if seen, would represent a healthy correction. Support to watch is 4101.40, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4250.00 High Aug 26, 2022
• RES 3: 4194.25 High Sep 13
• RES 2: 4180.00 High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4109.25 High Jan 27
• PRICE: 4030.50 @ 06:44 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: 4027.25/3957.89 Low Jan 26 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3901.75/3891.50 Low Jan 19 / Low Jan 10
• SUP 3: 3788.50/78.45 Low Dec 22 / 61.8% of Oct 13-Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 4: 3735.00 Low Nov 3

S&P E-Minis traded higher last week to confirm a resumption of the current uptrend. The move lower Monday is likely a correction. The recent breach of resistance has resulted in a print above the 4100.00 handle and an extension higher would open 4180.00, the Dec 13 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm support has been defined at 3957.89, the 50-day EMA. A move below the average would be seen as a bearish development and signal a reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H3) Bearish Threat

• RES 4: $93.97 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $92.43 - High Nov 16
• RES 2: $91.39 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 9 bear leg
• RES 1: $89.09 - High Jan 23 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $84.65 @ 06:10 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: $83.76/77.61 - Low Jan 19 / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $82.37 - Low Jan 12
• SUP 3: $75.64 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $73.73 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing

Brent futures traded sharply lower Monday and in the process breached support at $84.91, the 20-day EMA. The move lower undermines the recent bull theme and a continuation would expose support at $83.76, the Jan 19 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and potentially expose $77.61, the Jan 5 low. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at $89.09, the Jan 23 high.

WTI TECHS: (H3) Trades Through Support

• RES 4: $87.00 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $85.33 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 9 bear leg
• RES 2: $83.14 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $80.49/82.66 - High Jan 30 / High Jan 18
• PRICE: $77.50 @ 07:13 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: $76.53/72.74 - 61.8% of the Jan 5 - 18 bull leg / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $70.56 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $67.44 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

WTI futures traded sharply lower Monday and in the process breached support at $78.45, the Jan 19 low. The move lower undermines the recent bull theme and a continuation would signal potential for an extension towards $72.74, the Jan 5 low. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at $82.66, the Jan 18 high. A break of this level is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $1998.4 - High Apr 18, 2022
• RES 3: $1982.0 - High Apr 19, 2022
• RES 2: $1963.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 1: $1949.2 - High Jan 26 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1913.1 @ 07:28 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: $1899.5/96.7 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 12
• SUP 2: $1867.2 - Low Jan 11
• SUP 3: $1825.2 - Low Jan 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $1797.1 - Low Dec 28

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent cycle highs confirm an extension of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position - reflecting the uptrend. The focus is on $1963.0 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support to watch lies at $1899.5, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a deeper pullback.

SILVER TECHS: Broader Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 2: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $24.548 - High Jan 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $23.264@ 08:07 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: $23.035 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $22.557 - Low Dec 16 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $20.872 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: $20.585 - Low Nov 21

Silver is lower but continues to trade inside a range. The trend direction is unchanged and remains up and moving average studies are in a bull mode position. Fresh trend highs in December reinforced the positive theme. Furthermore, the move higher has maintained the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $24.729, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support is at $22.557, the Dec 16 low.