MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bunds Are Approaching Resistance

Price Signal Summary - Bunds Are Approaching Resistance

• In the equity space, bullish conditions remain intact in the S&P E-minis Attention is on 4400.00 next. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain above last week's low of 3951.50. The contract is approaching initial resistance at 4101.50, Jul 1 high where a break would neutralise recent bearish price signals and signal scope for a stronger recovery.
• In FX, the USD outlook remains bullish. EURUSD resumed its downtrend Tuesday, breaching the recent low of 1.1782, Jul 7 low. The focus is on 1.1704, Mar 31 low. Gains are considered corrective. Resistance is at 1.1881, Jul 9 high. The GBPUSD outlook remains bearish. The focus is on the support and bear trigger at 1.3733, Jul 2 low. Resistance is at 1.3941, the 50-day EMA. USDJPY failed to hold onto yesterday's high and tackle resistance at 110.82, Jul 7 high. The reversal lower suggests the recent 3-day recovery has been a correction and is over. Support at 109.53, Jul 8 low and the short-term bear trigger appears exposed.
• On the commodity front, Gold has overcome resistance offered by the 50-day EMA. The break higher strengthens bullish conditions with attention on $1833.7 (tested this morning) and $1853.3, 50.0% and 61.8% retracement levels of the Jun 1 - 29 decline. Brent (U1) futures are lower and attention turns to support at $72.11, Jul 8 low. A break would be bearish. WTI (Q1) key support to watch is at 70.76, Jul 8 low.
• Within FI, Bund futures have recovered off yesterday's low. Conditions remain bullish. Attention is on 174.97, Mar 3 high (cont) and the bull trigger. Gilt futures found support at yesterday's low. Broader conditions are bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Attention is on 129.92, Jul 8 high and the bull trigger.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.2006 High Jun 29 / Jun 17
• RES 3: 1.1975 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.1930/1975 High Jun 29 / High Jun 25
• RES 1: 1.1881 High Jul 9
• PRICE: 1.1835 @ 06:08 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 1.1772 Low Jul 13 and 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1738 Low Apr 5
• SUP 3: 1.1704 Low Mar 31 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD recovered Wednesday. Short-term gains are considered corrective though and the outlook is bearish.. The pair traded lower Tuesday and resumed its downtrend, breaching 1.1782, Jul 7 low. This week's move lower maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and has exposed 1.1704, Mar 31 low. Key S/T resistance has been defined at 1.1975, Jun 25 high. Initial firm resistance is at 1.1881, the July 9 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 1.4133 High Jun 16
• RES 3: 1.4074 Low Jun 10
• RES 2: 1.4001 High Jun 23 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3937 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3841 @ 06:13 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 1.3733 Low Jul 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3669 Low Apr 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

GBPUSD is unchanged and the outlook remains bearish. The pair recently breached 1.3787, Jun 21 low and this confirmed a resumption of the current bearish cycle. Furthermore, moving average studies are still in a bear mode highlighting a bearish condition. Recent weakness signals scope for a test of 1.3717, Apr 16 low. Attention is also on the key short-term support and bear trigger at 1.3669, Apr 12 low. First resistance is at 1.3937.

EURGBP TECHS: Bounce Is Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.8646/72 High Jun 1 / High May 25
• RES 2: 0.8618/29 High Jul 8 and key resistance / High Jun 15
• RES 1: 0.8567 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8550 @ 06:18 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 0.8504/8479 Low Jul 14 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020

EURGBP traded lower Wednesday before finding support. The cross has breached support at; 0.8531, 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally and 0.8530, the Jun 23 low of 0.8530. Directional signals still point south and the break lower strengthens a bearish case with the focus on key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. The cross last week probed resistance at 0.8616, Jul 1 high. A clear break is required to neutralise the current bearish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Pressure Returns

• RES 4: 112.23 High Feb 20, 2020 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 111.71 High Mar 24, 2020
• RES 2: 111.66 High Jul 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 110.70/82 High Jul 14/ High Jul 7
• PRICE: 109.86 @ 06:23 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 109.53 Low Jul 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 109.19 Low Jun 7 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 4: 108.34 Low May 7

USDJPY failed to hold onto yesterday's high and tackle resistance at 110.82, Jul 7 high.The reversal lower suggests the recent 3-day recovery has been a correction and is over. If correct, additional near-term weakness would expose support at 109.53, Jul 8 low and the short-term bear trigger. A break would open 109.19, Jun 7 low. Clearance of 110.70, Wednesday's intraday high and 110.82 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Theme Intact

• RES 4: 132.88 High Jun 17
• RES 3: 132.70 High Jun 23
• RES 2: 132.43 High Jul 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 131.09/64 High Jul 13 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.06 @ 06:35 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 129.63 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 129.35 38.2% retracement of the Oct 2020 - May 2021 rally
• SUP 3: 128.83 Low Mar 29
• SUP 4: 128.29 Low Mar 24 and key support

The EURJPY outlook remains bearish. This follows the move lower last week and break of support at 130.04, Jun 21 low. The move lower reinforces the bearish importance of the Jun 17 breach of a bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. Attention is on 129.35 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies also highlight a bearish condition, reinforcing current directional conditions. 131.09 marks initial resistance.

AUDUSD TECHS: Eyeing The Bear Channel Base

• RES 4: 0.7716 High Jun 16
• RES 3: 0.7645 High Jun 17
• RES 2: 0.7605/17 50-day EMA / High Jun 25 and key S/T resistance
• RES 1: 0.7534/99 High Jul 7 / High Jul 6
• PRICE: 0.7468 @ 06:44 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 0.7410 Low Jul 9
• SUP 2: 0.7365 Bear channel base drawn off the Feb 25 high
• SUP 3: 0.7339 Low Nov 30, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.7304 1.236 proj of Feb 25 - Apr 1 - May 10 price swing

AUDUSD is consolidating and attention is on a key near-term support. Price recently found resistance at 0.7599, Jul 6 high. The outlook is bearish and sights are on 0.7365, the bear channel base drawn off the Feb 25 high. The recent move lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and moving average studies remain in bear mode. Initial resistance is at 0.7534.

USDCAD TECHS: Finds Support

• RES 4: 1.2737 High Mar 5
• RES 3: 1.2699 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2653 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2590 High Jul 8
• PRICE: 1.2527 @ 06:47 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 1.2428 Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 1.2303/2253 Low Jul 6 / Low Jun 23 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2157 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 1.2057 Low Jun 7

USDCAD bounced is firmer having bounced off Wednesday's low. The outlook is bullish. Gains last week resulted in a break of 1.2487, Jun 21 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Jun 1 and establishes a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition too. The focus is on 1.2653, Apr 21 high and an important resistance. Firm trend support lies at 1.2253, Jun 23 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Approaching Recent Highs

• RES 4: 175.26 High Feb 18 (cont)
• RES 3: 175.08 1.00 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 2: 174.97 High Mar 3 (cont)
• RES 1: 174.77 High Jul 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 174.62 @ 05:19 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 173.70 LowJul 13 and 14
• SUP 2: 173.16 High Jun 11 and recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 172.61/49 50-day EMA / Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: 171.67 Low Jun 22 and the near-term bear trigger

Bund futures traded higher yesterday and the near-term outlook remains bullish. This follows last week's gains, an extension of the rally from Jun 22. Furthermore, price has recently cleared 173.16, Jun 11 high. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started May 9 and established a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on 174.97, Mar 3 high (cont) and 175.08, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is at 173.70.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 134.912 1.618 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 134.835 1.50 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 134.758 1.382 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 134.710 High Jul 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 134.660 @ 05:33 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 134.410 Low Jul 13
• SUP 2: 134.070 Low Jul 6
• SUP 3: 133.860 Low May 28, 31, Jun 22 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: 133.530 Low May 21

Bobl futures maintain a bullish theme and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Yesterday's gains are positive. The contract last week confirmed a clear break of key S/T resistance at 134.510, Jun 11 high and a Fibonacci projection. The break confirmed a resumption of the recovery from May 20 and sets the scene for an extension higher. This opens 134.758, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support lies at 134.340, Jul 7 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Attention Is On The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 112.290 High Feb 11 (cont)
• RES 3: 112.280 High Feb 12 (cont)
• RES 2: 112.250 High Mar 1 and 2 (cont)
• RES 1: 112.215 High Jul 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 112.190 @ 05:22 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 112.150 Low Jul 13
• SUP 2: 112.140 Low Jul 5 and 6
• SUP 3: 112.120 Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 112.110 Congestion lows Apr 20, Jun 22, 23, 25 and 28

The Schatz futures outback remains bullish. The contract traded higher last week extending the climb from the 112.110 congestion lows in June. Resistance at 112.210, Jun 11 high was probed last week, a clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish case and open 112.250, the Mar 1 and 2 high (cont). On the downside, clearance of 112.110 is required to reinstate a bearish theme. Initial firm support is at 112.150.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Directional Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 130.62 High Feb 22 (cont)
• RES 3: 130.30 2.00 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 129.99 High Feb 24 (cont)
• RES 1: 129.92 High Jul 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 129.06 @ Close Jul 14
• SUP 1: 128.54/39 Low Jul 14 / High Jun 11 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 128.03 Jul 6
• SUP 3: 127.25 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 126.91 Low Jun 17 and key support

Gilt futures remain below recent highs however a bullish outlook remains intact. Recent gains resulted in a breach of key S/T resistance at 128.39, Jun 11 high. The break represents an important bullish development and highlights a resumption of the uptrend from May 13. Furthermore, this maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on 129.99, Feb 24 high (cont). Initial firm support is at 128.54/39.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Fresh Trend High Print

• RES 4: 154.15 0.764 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 3: 153.82 High Feb 12 (cont)
• RES 2: 153.35 0.618 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 1: 153.18 Intraday high
• PRICE: 152.96 @ Close Jul 14
• SUP 1: 151.93/54 Low Jul 8 / Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: 151.19 High Jul 1
• SUP 3: 150.56 Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 149.97 Low Jun 25 and key short-term support

BTPs traded higher again yesterday and have resumed their uptrend. Last week's gains resulted in breach of key resistance at 152.47, Jun 14 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started May 19 and paves the way for a stronger short-term recovery. Yesterday's fresh high print reinforces the bullish theme. Attention is on 153.35, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is at the Jul 8 low of 151.93.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Consolidating Ahead Of Resistance

• RES 4: 4175.00 Nov 26, 2008 low (cont)
• RES 3: 4153.00 High Jun 17 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 4121.00 High Jun 25
• RES 1: 4101.50 High Jul 1
• PRICE: 4080.50 @ 05:59 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 3951.50 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 3976.00 Low May 21
• SUP 3: 3914.00 Low May 20
• SUP 4: 3871.00 Low May 19

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain above recent lows following the bounce from last week's 3951.50 low. The contract is trading ahead of initial resistance at 4101.50, Jul 1 high where a break would neutralise recent bearish price signals and signal scope for a stronger recovery towards 4121.00 initially. On the downside, a failure ahead of 4101.50 would expose 3951.50, Jul 8 low and the bear trigger.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Consolidating

• RES 4: 4508.82 1.236 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 4415.48 1.00 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4384.50 High Jul 14
• PRICE: 4364.75 @ 07:11 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 4279.25 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 4227.03/4126.75 50-day EMA / Low Jun 21 and key support
• SUP 3: 4100.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4020.20 Low May 13 and key short-term support

S&P E-minis are consolidating. The trend condition remains bullish and price has confirmed a fresh all-time high again this week. Moving average studies are pointing north too, reinforcing current conditions. Attention is on 4400.00 next. On the downside, the contract needs to trade below 4279.25, Jul 8 low to signal a potential near-term top. This would suggest scope for a deeper corrective pullback.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U1) Remains Above Last Week's Low

• RES 4: $78.03 - High Oct 29, 2018 (cont)
• RES 3: $77.86 - 1.382 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $77.84 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $76.72 - High Jul 14
• PRICE: $74.20 @ 06:50 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: $73.75 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $72.11 - Low Jul 8 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $71.24 - Low Jun 17
• SUP 4: $69.42 - High May 18 and the recent break out level

Brent futures remain above last week's lows. Recent gains suggest a bullish theme has been re-established. Attention is on the key resistance at $77.84, Jul 6 high where a break would negate recent bearish concerns and confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, a key short-term support has been defined at $72.11, Jul 8 low. A breach of this support would signal a short-term top instead.

WTI TECHS: (Q1) Monitoring Support

• RES 4: $78.79 - 1.764 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 3: $77.35 - 1.618 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $76.98 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $75.52 - High Jul 13
• PRICE: $72.49 @ 06:57 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: $70.76 - Low Jul 8 and key support
• SUP 2: $69.78 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $69.54 - Low Jun 17
• SUP 4: $67.59 - Low Jun 2

Brent futures found resistance yesterday but remain above last week's lows. Attention is on the recent high of $76.98 on Jul 6, that also marks the bull trigger. A break of this level would negate recent bearish concerns and confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $70.76, Jul 8 low where a break is required to signal a top.

GOLD TECHS: Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1877.5 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 3: $1863.3 - High Jun 16
• RES 2: $1853.3 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 1: $1834.1 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $1831.6 @ 09:36 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: $1791.7 Low Jul 12 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: $1774.4/1750.8 - Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 29
• SUP 3: $1733.5 -76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 4: $1723.8 - Low Apr 13

Gold rallied yesterday and appears to have finally overcome the resistance offered by the 50-day EMA. The break higher strengthens bullish conditions with attention on $1833.7 (tested this morning) and $1853.3, Fibonacci retracements. On the downside, support has been defined at $1791.7, Jul 12 low where a break is required to signal a short-term top. This would also suggest scope for a retest of $1750.8, Jun 29 low.

SILVER TECHS: Range Bound

• RES 4: $28.556 - High Jun 1
• RES 3: $28.285 - High Jun 11 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $27.831 - High Jun 16
• RES 1: $26.775/27.245 - High Jul 6 / High Jun 17
• PRICE: $26.329 @ 07:23 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: $25.529 - Low Jun 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: $24.955 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 18 rally
• SUP 4: $24.686 - Low Apr 13

Silver remains in a range. The metal recently breached resistance at $26.495, Jun 18 high. The break neutralises a recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery. If the metal is able to resume its climb, this would open $27.245, Jun 17 high. Thus far, price has failed to hold onto recent gains and attention is on the key support and bear trigger at $25.529, Jun 29 low. Clearance of this level resumes a downtrend.