MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bunds Build on Gains
Price Signal Summary – Bunds Build on Last Week’s Gains
- On Friday, S&P E-Minis pierced key resistance and the bull trigger at 6053.25, the Nov 11 high. This confirms a fresh cycle high and marks a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up. Eurostoxx 50 futures are in consolidation mode. A bear trend remains intact and a fresh cycle low on Nov 19 marked a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30. Price has traded through 4746.94, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle.
- The latest recovery in GBPUSD is considered corrective and the move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 1.2730, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a stronger recovery. Last week’s move lower in USDJPY marks an extension of the current corrective phase, and a bear cycle remains in play for now. The pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs.EURJPY remains soft and the cross traded lower Friday, extending the current bear leg. A number of retracement points have been cleared and sights are on 157.87, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle.
- A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and the Nov 25 move lower reinforces this theme. Attention is on $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. The long-term trend condition in Gold is unchanged and remains bullish. The Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
- Bund futures traded higher last week and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. A bullish theme remains intact and further gains are likely. Price has pierced 134.87, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. A bullish corrective cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and last week’s climb reinforces current bullish conditions. A continuation higher would pave the way for a climb towards 96.33 next, a Fibonacci projection.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Resistance At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.0825 High Nov 7
- RES 3: 1.0748 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0609 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0597 High Nov 29
- PRICE: 1.0522 @ 05:59 GMT Dec 2
- SUP 1: 1.0425/0335 Low Nov 26 / 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0258 1.500 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0201 61.8% retracement of the Sep 28 - Juk 18 bull leg
EURUSD traded higher last week. A key short-term resistance at 1.0609, the 20-day EMA, remains intact. A clear break of this average is required to signal potential for a stronger short-term recovery. This would open 1.0748, the 50-day EMA and allow for a continued unwinding of the oversold trend condition. The medium-term trend direction is down. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 1.0335, the Nov 22 low.
GBPUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.3048 High Nov 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.2961 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.2864 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.2730/50 20-day EMA / High Nov 29
- PRICE: 1.2689 @ 06:18 GMT Dec 2
- SUP 1: 1.2567/2487 Low Nov 27 / 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.2446 Low May 9
- SUP 3. 1.2367 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 ‘23 - Sep 26 uptrend
- SUP 4: 1.2300 Low Apr 22 and a key support
The latest recovery in GBPUSD is considered corrective and the move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 1.2730, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a stronger recovery. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish, with moving average studies in a bear-mode set-up. The bear trigger is 1.2487, the Nov 22 low.
EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 2: 0.8404 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8355/76 50-day EMA / High Nov 19
- PRICE: 0.8293 @ 06:40 GMT Dec 2
- SUP 1: 0.8260 Low Nov 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
- SUP 4: 0.8200 Round number support
EURGBP is trading lower and remains below its recent high. A bullish engulfing candle pattern on Nov 12 continues to highlight a possible short-term reversal. The 20- and 50 day EMAs have been pierced. A clear break of both EMAs would strengthen the risk of a reversal and open 0.8404, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support is at 0.8260, the Nov 11 low. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
USDJPY TECHS: Retracement Mode Still In Play
- RES 4: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 3: 156.88 2.236 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 2: 155.89/156.75 High Nov 20 / 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 151.47/152.89 50- and 20-day EMA values
- PRICE: 150.33 @ 07:00 GMT Dec 2
- SUP 1: 149.47 Low Nov 29
- SUP 2: 149.09 Low Oct 21
- SUP 3: 148.17 50.0% retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 bull leg
- SUP 4: 147.35 Low Oct 8
Last week’s move lower in USDJPY marks an extension of the current corrective phase, and a bear cycle remains in play for now. The pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for a deeper retracement, towards 148.17 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 156.75, the Nov 15 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 152.89, the 20-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Maintains A Bearish Tone
- RES 4: 165.04/166.69 High Nov 15 / High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 164.76 High Nov 20 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 162.75 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 160.71/162.18 High Nov 27 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 157.79 @ 08:21 GMT Dec 2
- SUP 1: 157.87/59 76.4% of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle
- SUP 2: 157.05 Low Sep 18
- SUP 3: 156.05 Low Sep 17
- SUP 4: 155.15 Low Sep 16 and a key support
EURJPY remains soft and the cross traded lower Friday, extending the current bear leg. A number of retracement points have been cleared and sights are on 157.87, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle. This level has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bearish theme and open 155.15, the Sep 16 low. Initial firm resistance is 162.18, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this EMA is required to signal a reversal.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 0.6600/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.6532/50 20-day EMA / High Nov 25
- PRICE: 0.6497 @ 07:58 GMT Dec 2
- SUP 1: 0.6434 Low Nov 26
- SUP 3: 0.6400 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023
A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact. Last week’s fresh cycle low marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. The pair has recovered from its recent lows - a correction. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6532, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.4279 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4196 1.764 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4078/4178 High Nov 27 / 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4046 @ 08:05 GMT Dec 2
- SUP 1: 1.3969/28 20-day EMA / Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 2: 1.3864 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
- SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17
The trend condition in USDCAD remains bullish and last week’s fresh cycle high reinforced this theme. The move higher confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and marked an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4196 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low. For now, the latest pullback is considered corrective.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bull Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 136.20 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 135.92 High Oct 2
- RES 2: 135.24 High Oct 3
- RES 1: 134.94 High Nov 29
- PRICE: 134.90 @ 05:34 GMT Dec 2
- SUP 1: 133.88/133.08 Low Nov 28 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2 131.28 Low Nov 14
- SUP 3: 130.58 Low Nov 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 129.99 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
Bund futures traded higher last week and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. A bullish theme remains intact and further gains are likely. Price has pierced 134.87, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bullish and signal scope for a climb towards 136.20, the Oct 1 high. Initial firm support lies at 133.08, the 20-day EMA.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Bull Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 120.650 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 120.490 High Oct 2
- RES 2: 120.190 High Oct 3
- RES 1: 119.949 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - 31 bear leg
- PRICE: 119.900 @ 05:50 GMT Dec 2
- SUP 1: 119.550/118.996 Low Nov 29 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 118.540 Low Nov 22
- SUP 3: 118.150 Low Nov 14
- SUP 4: 118.680 Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
Bobl futures maintain a firmer tone and last week’s gains mark an extension of the current cycle. The contract has recently breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and traded above 119.519, 61.8% of the Oct 1 - 31 bear leg. Clearance of this level strengthens a bullish theme and has exposed 119.949, the 76.4% retracement point. A break of this retracement would strengthen the bullish theme. Initial firm support lies at 118.996, the 20-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 107.335 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 107.225 High Oct 3
- RES 2: 107.108 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - 31 bear leg
- RES 1: 107.070 High Oct 24 and the near-term bull trigger
- PRICE: 107.090 @ 06:14 GMT Dec 2
- SUP 1: 106.864/880 20-day EMA / Low Nov 28
- SUP 2: 106.740 Low Nov 22
- SUP 3: 106.645 Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: 106.485 Low Nov 5
Schatz futures traded higher Friday marking a continuation of the bull cycle that started on Oct 31. Attention is on 107.108, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Oct 1 - 31. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and open 107.335, the Oct 1 high. Key short-term support is at 106.880, the Nov 28 low. A break of this level would highlight a possible reversal. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 106.864.
GILT TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 96.67 2.500 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: 96.52 2.382 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing
- RES 2: 96.33 2.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: 96.25 High Nov 29
- PRICE: 95.89 @ Close Nov 29
- SUP 1: 95.17/94.66 Low Nov 28 / 25
- SUP 2: 93.96 Low Nov 22
- SUP 3: 93.40 Low Nov 18 and a key short-term support
- SUP 4: 93.00 Round number support
A bullish corrective cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and last week’s climb reinforces current bullish conditions. A continuation higher would pave the way for a climb towards 96.33 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the initial key support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. A breach of this support would be a bearish development. First support lies at 95.17, the Nov 28 low.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Breaches A Key Resistance
- RES 4: 124.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 123.88 2.000 proj of the Nov 7 - 12 - 13 price swing
- RES 2: 122.32 1.794 proj of the Nov 7 - 12 - 13 price swing
- RES 1: 123.02 Highh Nov 29
- PRICE: 122.83 @ Close Nov 29
- SUP 1: 121.68/120.90 Low Nov 28 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 119.63 Low Nov 18
- SUP 3: 119.12 Low Nov 13
- SUP 4: 117.88 Low Nov 7 and a key support
BTP futures traded higher Friday marking an extension of the bull cycle that started Nov 7. The latest rally has resulted in a move through key resistance at 122.62, the Oct 1 high. A clear break of this level highlights an important bullish development and opens 123.32 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is overbought and a corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Support to watch is 120.90, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 5015.00 High Oct 21
- RES 3: 5106.00 High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 4961.00 High Nov 6 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 4861.43 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 4773.00 @ 06:29 GMT Dec 2
- SUP 1: 4699.00 Low Nov 19 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 4707.00 Low Aug 9
- SUP 3: 4662.12 .76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4586.00 Low Aug 6
Eurostoxx 50 futures are in consolidation mode. A bear trend remains intact and a fresh cycle low on Nov 19 marked a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30. Price has traded through 4746.94, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle. This exposes 4662.12 next, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 4961.00, the Nov 6 high, where a break would highlight a reversal. First resistance is at 4861.43, the 50-day EMA.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Fresh All-Time High
- RES 4: 6145.26 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6103.88 1.500 proj of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 6070.16 1.382 proj of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 6060.00 High Nov 29
- PRICE: 6038.50 @ 07:25 GMT Dec 2
- SUP 1: 5960.85 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5876.00 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5814.75 Low Nov 6
- SUP 4: 5724.25 Low Nov 4 and a key support
On Friday, S&P E-Minis pierced key resistance and the bull trigger at 6053.25, the Nov 11 high. This confirms a fresh cycle high and marks a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up and this set-up highlights a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on 6070.16, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 5960.85, the 20-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (G5) Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: $84.32 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $81.83 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $79.98/80.44 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $75.79 - High Nov 5
- PRICE: $72.35 @ 07:06 GMT Dec 2
- SUP 1: $69.95 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $69.52/67.89 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $66.70 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $64.34 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures are unchanged and remain in consolidation mode. A short-term bearish condition is intact and last Monday’s move lower reinforces this theme. A continuation down would open $69.52 the Oct 1 low, and $67.89, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a clearer reversal higher would instead refocus attention on key resistance at $79.98, the Oct 7 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $75.79, the Nov 5 high.
WTI TECHS: (F5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $80.25 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $78.03 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $74.83/77.04 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.41 - High Nov 7
- PRICE: $68.54 @ 07:18 GMT Dec 2
- SUP 1: $66.32 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $65.74/63.90 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $62.73 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and the Nov 25 move lower reinforces this theme. Attention is on $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $72.41, the Nov 7 high.
GOLD TECHS: Trend Structure Is Bullish
- RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $2750.0 - High Nov 5
- RES 2: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 1: $2721.4 - High Nov 25
- PRICE: $2629.1 @ 07:22 GMT Dec 2
- SUP 1: $2605.3/2564.4 - Low Nov 26 / 18
- SUP 2: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 3: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
- SUP 4: $2472.0 - Low Sep 4
The long-term trend condition in Gold is unchanged and remains bullish. The Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance to watch is $2721.4, the Nov 25 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a bullish short-term development. Key support to monitor is $2536.9, the Nov 14 low.
SILVER TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $31.180/537 - 50-day EMA / High Nov 19
- PRICE: 30.204 @ 08:13 GMT Dec 2
- SUP 1: $29.642 - Low Nov 28
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
The bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play and the metal is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has recently breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and traded through a trendline drawn from the Aug 8 low. A resumption of the bear leg would open $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is $31.180, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a possible reversal.