MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bunds Extend Losing Streak

Price Signal Summary – Bunds Extend Losing Streak

• S&P E-Minis maintain a firmer tone. The contract continues to test the 50-day EMA, at 4184.37 today. A clear break of this EMA would strengthen current bullish conditions and signal potential for a climb towards a key resistance at 4303.50, the Apr 26/28 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a bullish short-term tone but continue to trade below Monday’s high. Price however remains above the 50-day EMA. Attention is on resistance at 3883.00, Apr 21 high and a key resistance at 3944.00, Mar 29 high.
• EURUSD has stabilised and the pair traded higher Thursday. Price remains below the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top intersects at 1.0778 Thursday and this level marks a key short-term resistance. USDJPY is holding on to this week’s gains and potential is seen for a continuation higher. Price remains above the 50-day EMA, at 126.49 today. This week’s move higher signals the end of a recent corrective pullback and highlights the point that corrections in USDJPY are shallow. AUDUSD traded higher Thursday and is holding on to its recent gains. Yesterday's climb resulted in a break of key resistance at 0.7266, the May 4/5 high. This strengthens bullish conditions and signal scope for a move towards 0.7343.
• Gold traded higher Thursday and is above the 20-day EMA, currently at $1856.2. The climb suggests potential for a test of the 50-day EMA at $1876.6, where a break is required to suggest scope for a stronger short-term upleg. WTI futures remain in an uptrend. The contract has this week breached resistance at $116.43, the Mar 7 high and the former contract high.
• Bund futures maintain this week’s softer tone and the contract has continued to weaken. Price has traded below support at 150.97, May 9 low and a bear trigger. This signals a resumption of the primary downtrend and a continuation lower would open 150.19. Gilt futures traded sharply lower Tuesday to extend the pullback from its recent highs in May. The contract is approaching its key near-term support at 115.70, the May 9 low and bear trigger.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Still Trading Below The Bear Channel Top

• RES 4: 1.0954 High Apr 11
• RES 3: 1.0936 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0852 High Apr 22
• RES 1: 1.0778/87 Bear channel top from Feb 10 high / High May 30
• PRICE: 1.0750 @ 06:08 BST Jun 3
• SUP 1: 1.0627/0533 Low Jun 1 / Low May 20
• SUP 2: 1.0461 Low May 18 and19
• SUP 3: 1.0350 Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support

EURUSD has stabilised and the pair traded higher Thursday. Price remains below the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top intersects at 1.0778 Thursday and this level marks a key short-term resistance. A break would strengthen bullish conditions and highlight a stronger short-term reversal. The primary trend is down and an extension lower would reinforce a bearish theme and open 1.0533 initially, May 20 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2877 High APr 25
• RES 3: 1.2772 High Apr 26
• RES 2: 1.2705 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2667 High May 27 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.2568 @ 06:24 BST Jun 3
• SUP 1: 1.2438 Low May 20
• SUP 2: 1.2317 Low May 17
• SUP 3: 1.2277 76.4% retracement of the May 13 - 27 upleg
• SUP 4: 1.2156 Low May 13 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD found support Thursday and is the week’s worst levels. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of key resistance at the 50-day EMA that intersects at 1.2705. A break of this average is required to strengthen short-term bullish conditions. The broader trend outlook is bearish though and the trigger for a resumption of the downtrend is unchanged at 1.2156, May 13 low. Initial support lies at 1.2438, low May 24.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8658 High Sep 29 2021
• RES 3: 0.8643 High Sep 30 2021
• RES 2: 0.8619 High May 12 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8587 High May 24
• PRICE: 0.8553 @ 06:38 BST Jun 3
• SUP 1: 0.8497/8433 20-day EMA / Low May 23
• SUP 2: 0.8393/ 0.8391 Low May 17 / 61.8% of Apr 14 - May 12 upleg
• SUP 3: 0.8367 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 0.8337 76.4% retracement of the Apr 14 - May 12 upleg

EURGBP is trading higher and the cross maintains this week’s bullish theme. The break higher on May 24 has exposed 0.8619, May 12 high and the next important hurdle for bulls. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend that began Mar 7. Initial support lies at 0.8497, the 20-day EMA ahead of a firmer short-term level at 0.8433, May 23 low. Key short-term support is unchanged at 0.8393, the May 17 low and a bear trigger.

USDJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 132.39 High Apr 15 2002
• RES 3: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 131.35 High May 9 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 130.81 High May 11
• PRICE: 129.82 @ 06:52 BST Jun 3
• SUP 1: 128.40 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 126.49/36 50-day EMA / Low May 24
• SUP 3: 125.09 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 124.01 Low Apr 11

USDJPY is holding on to this week’s gains and potential is seen for a continuation higher. Price remains above the 50-day EMA, at 126.49 today. This week’s move higher signals the end of a recent corrective pullback and highlights the point that corrections in USDJPY are shallow - a bullish signal. The move higher signals scope for a climb towards the bull trigger at 131.35, May 9 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 126.36.

EURJPY TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 140.87 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 2: 140.00 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 139.78 High Jun 1
• PRICE: 139.64 @ 07:02 BST Jun 3
• SUP 1: 138.32/36.85 High May 9 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 135.72/133.93 50-day EMA / Low May 19
• SUP 3: 133.17 100-dma
• SUP 4: 132.66 Low May 12 and the bear trigger

EURJPY continues to climb. The cross maintains this week’s firmer tone and is approaching key resistance at 140.00, the Apr 21 high. This level also represents an important bull trigger and a break would strengthen bullish conditions and confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 7. This would open 140.87, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, the 20-day EMA at 136.85, is seen as a firm short-term support.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trades Through Key Short-term Resistance

• RES 4: 0.7465 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.7400 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 0.7343 61.8% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.7283 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.7256 @ 07:26 BST Jun 3
• SUP 1: 0.7126/7036 20-day EMA / Low May 25
• SUP 2: 0.6950 Low May 18
• SUP 3: 0.6829 Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020

AUDUSD traded higher Thursday and is holding on to its recent gains. Yesterday's climb resulted in a break of key resistance at 0.7266, the May 4/5 high. This strengthens bullish conditions and signal scope for a move towards 0.7343, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that the current bull cycle is still considered corrective. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 0.6829, May 12 low. Initial firm support to watch is at 0.7036.

USDCAD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 1.3077 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2982 High May 16
• RES 2: 1.2896 High May 18 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2686/2755 High Jun 2 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2571 @ 08:01 BST Jun 3
• SUP 1: 1.2558 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.2472 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.2459 Low Apr 21
• SUP 4: 1.2403Low Apr 5 and key support

USDCAD maintains a softer tone and the pair traded lower Thursday. Price has arrived at 1.2562, the 76.4%retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 uptrend. A clear breach of the level would strengthen current bearish conditions and pave the way for weakness towards 1.2459, Apr 21 low and potentially 1.2403, the Apr 5 low and a key support. Key resistance is seen at 1.2755, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Fresh Cycle Low

• RES 4: 158.87 High May 12
• RES 3: 155.27 High May 26
• RES 2: 153.39 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 152.34 Low May 18
• PRICE: 150.47 @ 05:17 BST Jun 3
• SUP 1: 150.19 1.00 proj of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing
• SUP 2: 150.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 148.85 1.236 proj of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 148.02 1.382 proj of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing

Bund futures maintain this week’s softer tone and the contract has continued to weaken. Price has traded below support at 150.97, May 9 low and a bear trigger. This signals a resumption of the primary downtrend and a continuation lower would open 150.19, 1.00 projection of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing. A move lower would also expose the psychological 150.00 handle. Initial firm resistance is at 153.39, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 127.160 High May 12
• RES 3: 126.710 High May 26
• RES 2: 125.816 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 125.380 Low May 18
• PRICE: 124.410 @ 05:11 BST Jun 3
• SUP 1: 124.250 1.382 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 2: 124.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 123.830 1.618 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 123.570 1.764 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing

Bobl futures traded lower again Thursday and the contract maintains this week's bearish theme. Price has traded to a fresh cycle low and through former support at 124.840, the May 6 low. This confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 124.00. Initial resistance is seen at 125.380, the May 18 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Bear Cycle Extension

• RES 4: 110.070 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 109.850 High May 26
• RES 2: 109.605 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 109.445 Low May 18
• PRICE: 109.145 @ 05:43 BST Jun 3
• SUP 1: 109.077 1.236 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 2: 109.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 108.912 1.50 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 108.618 1.618 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing

Schatz futures remain soft and the contract has resumed its primary downtrend. Support at 109.330, the May 6 low, has been cleared and this signals potential for a continuation lower with the focus on the 109.00 handle next. The break lower maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs - the definition of a downtrend. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 109.445, the May 18 low.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Approaching Its Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 119.25 High May 19
• RES 2: 118.63 High May 24 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 117.49/118.51 High May 31 / High May 26
• PRICE: 115.97 @ Close May 31
• SUP 1: 115.76 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 115.70 Low May 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 115.54 1.50 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 115.31 1.618 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing

Gilt futures traded sharply lower Tuesday to extend the pullback from its recent highs in May. The contract is approaching its key near-term support at 115.70, the May 9 low and bear trigger. The primary trend direction remains down and a break of 115.70 would confirm a resumption of the bear leg. This would open 115.50 initially, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at yesterday’s high of 117.49.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Bearish Price Structure

• RES 4: 129.00 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 127.79 High May 26
• RES 2: 126.32 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 125.13 Low May 24
• PRICE: 122.95 @ Close Jun 2
• SUP 1: 122.44 1.382 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 2: 122.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 121.53 1.618 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 120.96 1.764 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing

The primary trend condition in BTP futures remains bearish. The contract traded lower again Thursday. This week’s move lower has confirmed a break of support at 123.88, the May 9 low and bear trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on the 122.00 handle next. Initial resistance is at 125.13, the May 24 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Short-Term Bull Theme Intact

• RES 4: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 3888.00 High Apr 5
• RES 2: 3883.00 High Apr 21
• RES 1: 3850.00 High May 30
• PRICE: 3821.00 @ 06:00 BST Jun 3
• SUP 1: 3720.30 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3628.00 Low May 25
• SUP 3: 3576.00/3466.00 Low May 19 / Low May 10 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3458.90 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally

EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a bullish short-term tone but continue to trade below Monday’s high. Price however remains above the 50-day EMA. Attention is on resistance at 3883.00, Apr 21 high and a key resistance at 3944.00, Mar 29 high. A break of the latter would strengthen current bullish conditions. Firm short-term support has been defined at 3576.00, May 19 low. A reversal lower would signal a resumption of the broader downtrend.

E-MINI S&P (M2): 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 4509.00 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 4393.25 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 4303.50 High Apr 26/28 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4184.37/4202.25 50-day EMA / High May 31
• PRICE: 4179.50 @ 06:57 BST June 3
• SUP 1: 3960.50/3807.50 Low May 26 / Low May 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3801.97 38.2% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 bull leg (cont)
• SUP 3: 3787.74 2.618 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 3747.52 2.764 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing

S&P E-Minis maintain a firmer tone. The contract continues to test the 50-day EMA, at 4184.37 today. A clear break of this EMA would strengthen current bullish conditions and signal potential for a climb towards a key resistance at 4303.50, the Apr 26/28 high. Recent gains are still considered corrective and the primary trend is down. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 3807.50.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q2) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $124.42 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $123.49 - 1.50 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: $121.94 - 1.382 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $120.80 - High May 31
• PRICE: $117.38 @ 07:01 BST Jun 3
• SUP 1: $112.45 - Low Jun 2
• SUP 2: $111.86 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $107.03 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $103.84 - Low May 19 and a key support

Brent futures remain below Tuesday’s high. Trend conditions are bullish and pullbacks are considered corrective. Recent gains signals scope for an extension towards the contract high of 124.42, the Mar 7 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, the 20-day EMA, at $111.86, is seen as initial support. A break would suggest scope for a deeper corrective pullback.

WTI TECHS: (N2) Bulls Have Sights On $120.00

• RES 4: $125.73 - 1.382 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 3: $123.35 - 1.236 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 2: $120.00 - Psychological Resistance
• RES 1: $119.98 - High May 31
• PRICE: $116.89 @ 07:55 BST Jun 3
• SUP 1: $110.18 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $103.24 - Low May 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: $100.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $96.93 - Low May 11

WTI futures remain in an uptrend. The contract has this week breached resistance at $116.43, the Mar 7 high and the former contract high. This confirmed a resumption of the underlying uptrend and paves the way for a test of the $120.00 handle and potentially beyond. Initial firm support is seen at $110.18, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would suggest scope for a deeper correction.

GOLD TECHS: Watching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1919.9 - High Apr 29 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 2: $1876.6 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1874.1 - High May 24
• PRICE: $1868.0 @ 07:17 BST Jun 3
• SUP 1: $1828.6 - Low Jun 1
• SUP 2: $1807.5/1787.0 - Low May 18 / Low May 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021

Gold traded higher Thursday and is above the 20-day EMA, currently at $1856.2 The climb suggests potential for a test of the 50-day EMA at $1876.6, where a break is required to suggest scope for a stronger short-term upleg. Recent gains are still considered corrective though and the primary trend direction is down. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on the May 16 $1787.0 low.

SILVER TECHS: The 50-Day EMA Is Key Resistance

• RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
• RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• RES 2: $22.875 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $22463 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $22.283 @ 08:10 BST Jun 3
• SUP 1: $21.435/20.464 - Low Jun 1 / Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Silver has briefly tested above resistance at $22.446, May 27 high. A clear break above this level is required to suggest scope for an extension higher that would open the 50-day EMA at $22.875. For bears, a resumption of weakness would signal potential for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $20.464, the May 13 low. Initial support to watch is $21.435, the Jun 1 low.