MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bunds Extends Bearish Price Sequence

Price Signal Summary – Bunds Extends Bearish Price Sequence

• S&P E-Minis continue to deliver fresh highs and the contract maintains a bullish tone following last week’s reversal higher. The contract has cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to trade inside its current range and the recent consolidation appears to be a bull flag. A bullish theme remains in place and attention is on the 50-day EMA at 3866.40. This average represents an important resistance.
• The near-term EURUSD outlook remains bearish following the recent move lower from 1.1137, Mar 17 high. Recently, the pair failed to convincingly break a key resistance at 1.1121, Jan 28 low and the Mar 10 high. USDJPY rallied again Thursday, marking a sixth consecutive session of higher highs for the pair. Despite being in overbought territory, current momentum suggests the USD still has the potential to extend this bull cycle. The AUDUSD strengthened further Thursday and continues to deliver new YTD and multi-month highs. This week’s important technical break has been the move above 0.7441, the Mar 7 high, marking an extension of the strong reversal from 0.7165, Mar 15 low.
• Gold traded higher Thursday. The short-term outlook however remains bearish following the recent sharp pullback from the Mar 8 high of $2070.4. The move lower is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. WTI futures remain in an uptrend following recent gains and the strong reversal from $92.20, the Mar 15 low. The recent climb means the 50-day EMA, at $95.33 today, remains intact and that this average still represents a key near-term support.
• Bunds remain in a downtrend and touched a fresh cycle low yesterday. The contract this week traded through the psychological 160.00 handle. The continuation lower confirms an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that has unfolded since Aug / Sep 2019. Trend conditions in Gilt futures remain bearish following recent weakness and despite yesterday’s bounce from the day low. This week’s move lower has resulted in a break of key support and the bear trigger at 121.10, the Feb 6 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Still Looking For Weakness

• RES 4: 1.1280 Low Feb 14
• RES 3: 1.1232 61.8% of Feb 10 - Mar 7 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1166/1223 50-day EMA / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.1137 High Mar 17 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.1028 @ 06:14 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 1.0961 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 1.0890/06 Low Mar 9 / Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020

The near-term EURUSD outlook remains bearish following the recent move lower from 1.1137, Mar 17 high. Recently, the pair failed to convincingly break a key resistance at 1.1121, Jan 28 low and the Mar 10 high. This has reinforced bearish conditions and note that the primary trend remains down. Further weakness would open 1.0890, the Mar 9 low and 1.0806, Mar 7 low and bear trigger. Key short-term resistance is at 1.1137.

GBPUSD TECHS: The 50-Day EMA Marks Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3492 76.4% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 15 downleg
• RES 3: 1.3439 High Feb 25
• RES 2: 1.3337 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3298 High Mar 23
• PRICE: 1.3214 @ 06:22 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 1.3120/3000 Low Mar 22 / Low Mar 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2954 1.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933 Low Nov 5 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

GBPUSD remains below Wednesday’s high of 1.3298. This week’s break of the 20-day EMA and the 1.0% 10-dma envelope (at 1.3257) was seen as a positive development however, a key resistance at 1.3337, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. Clearance of this average is required to further strengthen short-term bullish conditions. On the downside, watch support at 1.3120, Tuesday’s low. A break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 0.8498/8535 High Dec 23 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 0.8478 High Feb 7 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8458 High Mar 17
• RES 1: 0.8374 High Mar 22
• PRICE: 0.8346 @ 06:30 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 0.8296 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 0.8278 Low Mar 7
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8131 Low Jun 27, 2016

Weakness in EURGBP this week threatens the recent bullish theme and has exposed support at 0.8278, Mar 7 low. A break of this level would highlight a stronger bearish reversal and exposes key short-term support at 0.8203, Mar 7 low. The cross is also once again trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs - a bearish development. For bulls, a recovery would refocus attention on 0.8458, Mar 17 high and a bull trigger.

USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Still Firmly Intact

• RES 4: 124.63 High Aug 13 2015
• RES 3: 123.76 High Nov 18 2015
• RES 2: 122.47 2.382 projection of the Dec 3 - Jan 4 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 122.44 Intraday high
• PRICE: 121.94 @ 06:45 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 120.95/120.00 Low Mar 24 / Round number support
• SUP 2: 119.04/ Low Mar 21
• SUP 3: 118.18 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 117.28 Low Mar 14

USDJPY rallied again Thursday, marking a sixth consecutive session of higher highs for the pair. Despite being in overbought territory, current momentum suggests the USD still has the potential to extend this bull cycle. Upside targets shift higher to 122.47, the 2.382 projection of the Dec 3 - Jan 4 - 24 price swing as well as the Nov 18 2015 high of 123.76. Initial firm support is seen at 120.00.

EURJPY TECHS: Clears 2021 Highs

• RES 4: 137.50 High Feb 2 2018 and a major resistance
• RES 3: 135.85 High Feb 7 2018
• RES 2: 135.33 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 134.75 Intraday high
• PRICE: 134.29 @ 06:57 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 132.33 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 131.00 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 130.08 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 129.27 Low Mar 15

EURJPY traded higher again Thursday and the cross maintains its current bullish form. Price is through a major resistance at the 2021 high of 134.13, from Jun 1. This has strengthened the bullish condition and attention turns to the 3.0% 10-dma envelope at 135.33 and the Feb 7 2018 high of 135.85. The RSI has ticked higher and is approaching overbought territory for the first time since early February. Initial support is seen at 132.33, the Mar 23 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh YTD High

• RES 4: 0.7599 High Jul 6 2021
• RES 3: 0.7556 High Oct 28 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.7532 High Nov 2, 2021
• RES 1: 0.7528 High Mar 24
• PRICE: 0.7525 @ 07:02 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 0.7450/7376 Low Mar 23 / Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 0.7343 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.7271 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.7165 Low Mar 15 and a key support

The AUDUSD strengthened further Thursday and continues to deliver new YTD and multi-month highs. This week’s important technical break has been the move above 0.7441, the Mar 7 high, marking an extension of the strong reversal from 0.7165, Mar 15 low. This reinforces the current bull cycle that started Jan 28. The break of 0.7441 signals scope for a climb towards 0.7556, the Oct 28 high. Initial firm support is seen at 0.7376.

USDCAD TECHS: Eyeing Key Support

• RES 4: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 3: 1.2871/2901 High Mar 15 / High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2778 High Mar 16
• RES 1: 1.2669 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2541 @ 07:57 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 1.2510 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 1.2499 Low Jan 21
• SUP 3: 1.2454 Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10 2021

USDCAD traded to a new cycle low Thursday. This week’s move lower and most recently, a break of 1.2552, the 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally, reinforces a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension lower. The focus is on the Jan 21 low of 1.2499 and 1.2451, the Jan 19 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2669, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would ease current bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Fresh Cycle Low

• RES 4: 165.9 High Mar 9
• RES 3: 164.43 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 163.20 High Mar 11
• RES 1: 160.56/162.05 Low Mar 16 / High Mar 15 and the 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 159.12 @ 05:12 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 158.73 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 157.92 150.0% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 rally
• SUP 3: 157.33 Low Oct 10 2018 (cont)
• SUP 4: 156.88 Low Mar 8 2018 (cont)

Bunds remain in a downtrend and touched a fresh cycle low yesterday. The contract this week traded through the psychological 160.00 handle. The continuation lower confirms an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that has unfolded since Aug / Sep 2019. The focus is on 157.92 next, a Fibonacci retracement level. Firm resistance is at 162.05.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 132.370 High Mar 10
• RES 3: 131.550 High Mar 11
• RES 2: 130.939 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 130.300 Low Mar 16
• PRICE: 129.570 @ 05:15 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 129.440 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 129.008 138.2% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 upleg
• SUP 3: 128.820 Low Dec 4 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 128.340 Low Sep 17 2015 (cont)

Bobl futures traded lower again Thursday marking an extension of this week’s downleg. This has again confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend and maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The break lower paves the way for a move towards 129.008 next, the 123.6% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 upleg. The 20-day EMA at 131.939 is seen as a firm resistance.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Bearish Conditions

• RES 4: 111.740 High Mar 10
• RES 3: 111.560 High Mar 11
• RES 2: 111.368 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 111.205 Low Mar 16 and high Mar 22
• PRICE: 111.025 @ 05:27 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 110.985 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 110.602 38.2% retracement of the 2011 - 2020 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 110.590 Low Jun 10/11 2014 (cont)
• SUP 4: 110.475 Low May 12 2014 (cont)

Schatz futures remain vulnerable. The move lower this week has strengthened bearish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend plus, it marks an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. 111.00 has been probed and this paves the way for a move towards 111.065, the Jun 5 2015 low on the continuation chart. Initial firm resistance is seen at 111.405.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 125.85 High Mar 4
• RES 3: 124.60 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 123.52 High Mar 9
• RES 1: 122.72 High Mar 18 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 121.08 @ Close Mar 24
• SUP 1: 120.26 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 120.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 119.75 123.6% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb
• SUP 4: 118.92 138.2% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb

Trend conditions in Gilt futures remain bearish following recent weakness and despite yesterday’s bounce from the day low. This week’s move lower has resulted in a break of key support and the bear trigger at 121.10, the Feb 6 low. This marks a resumption of the broader downtrend and opens 120.00. Price action has defined a key short-term resistance at 122.72, Mar 18 high. A break of this level is required to signal a short-term reversal.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Southbound

• RES 4: 145.06 High Mar 8
• RES 3: 143.85 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 142.51 Low Mar 1
• RES 1: 140.44 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 138.31 @ Close Mar 24
• SUP 1: 137.94 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 137.52 Low May 18 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 136.86 Low May 13 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 136.13 61.8% retracement of the Mar ‘19 - Aug ‘21 bull cycle

BTP futures remain vulnerable. The contract has traded lower this week and cleared key support at 138.60, the Feb 16 low and a bear trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and highlights an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 137.52, the May 18 2020 low on the continuation chart. Resistance is seen at 140.44, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (M2): Heading North

• RES 4: 4730.50 High Jan 1
• RES 3: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 2: 4578.50 High Feb 9 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4527.25 High Mar 22
• PRICE: 4519.00 @ 06:57 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 4375.64 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4129.50/4094.25 Low Mar 15 / Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 4029.25 Low May 13 2021 (cont)

S&P E-Minis continue to deliver fresh highs and the contract maintains a bullish tone following last week’s reversal higher. The contract has cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The breach of the latter average is an important short-term bullish development and an extension would open 4578.50, the Feb 9 high. Initial support is at 4375.64, the 20-day EMA. A break would be seen as a bearish development.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Bull Flag

• RES 4: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 3: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 3965.50 High Feb 23
• RES 1: 3866.40 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3789.00 @ 05:53 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 3555.50 Low Mar 15 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 3455.00 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 3441.50 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3379.00 Low Dec 21 2020 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to trade inside its current range and the recent consolidation appears to be a bull flag. A bullish theme remains in place and attention is on the 50-day EMA at 3866.40. This average represents an important resistance. If cleared, it would further strengthen a bullish short-term theme and open 3965.50. Support to watch lies at 3555.50 Mar 15 low. A break would highlight a possible reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K2) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $139.13 - High Mar 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: $133.15 - High Mar 8
• RES 2: $129.17 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 1: $123.74 - High Mar 22
• PRICE: $119.41 @ 07:00 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: $109.28 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $100.09/96.93 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: $92.75 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $88.25 - Low Feb 18

Brent futures maintain a firmer tone despite yesterday’s pullback. The contract recently found support ahead of the 50-day EMA that intersects at $100.09 today. Price has cleared resistance at 113.91, Mar 11 high. The break has strengthened bullish conditions and signals scope for a stronger short-term climb towards 129.17 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of the 50-day EMA would reinstate a bearish threat.

WTI TECHS: (K2) Bullish Structure

• RES 4: $126.42 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $122.73 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $118.34 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 1: $116.64 - High Mar 24
• PRICE: $112.24 @ 07:11 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: $103.74 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $95.33/92.20 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $88.49 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $85.81 - Low Feb 18

WTI futures remain in an uptrend following recent gains and the strong reversal from $92.20, the Mar 15 low. The recent climb means the 50-day EMA, at $95.33 today, remains intact and that this average still represents a key near-term support. A continuation higher would open 118.34, a Fibonacci retracement level. On the downside, a breach of the 50-day EMA would instead reinstate the recent bearish theme.

GOLD TECHS: S/T Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $2104.6 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: $2075.5 - High Aug 7 2020 and the all-time high
• RES 2: $2009.2/2070.4 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8
• RES 1: $1966.1 - High Mar 24
• PRICE: $1954.9 @ 07:17 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: $1899.6/95.3 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $1821.1 - Low feb 11

Gold traded higher Thursday. The short-term outlook however remains bearish following the recent sharp pullback from the Mar 8 high of $2070.4. The move lower is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Key support is seen at the 50-day EMA that intersects at $1899.6 - just ahead of the recent low of $1895.3 on Mar 15. A break of the EMA would signal scope for a deeper pullback. Firm S/T resistance is seen at $2009.2, Mar 10 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $27.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $26.063/943 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $25.542 @ 08:04 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: $24.473/428 - Low Mar 16 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 3: $22.863 - Low Feb 11
• SUP 4: $22.008 - Low Feb 3 and a key support

Silver traded higher Thursday. Despite these gains, the recent pullback - a correction - is still in play and potential is seen for a deeper short-term retracement. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at 24.428. This EMA marks an important support and a break would signal scope for a resumption of recent weakness. For bulls, a move above $26.00 would refocus attention on the key resistance at 26.943, the Mar 8 high.