MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bunds Testing Trendline Support

Price Signal Summary - Bunds Approach Trendline Support, EUROSTOXX 50 Rallies

• On the equity front, S&P E-minis outlook is unchanged and remains bullish. The contract traded to a fresh all-time high of 4542.25 this week and this confirms a resumption of the uptrend once again. The focus is on 4580.21, 1.382 projection of the Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing. EUROSTOXX 50 has rallied and traded above 4238.50, Aug 13 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 4294.20, 1.236 projection of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing.
• In the FX space, EURUSD is once again above the 50-day EMA and the outlook for bulls will improve materially should it hold above the average. The EMA intersects at 1.1827. Attention is on 1.1909, the Jul 30 high and the next key short-term resistance. GBPUSD is unchanged and trading closer to recent highs. The pair found resistance Tuesday at 1.3808. Despite recent gains, a bearish theme still dominates following the sell-off between Jul 30 and Aug 20.
• On the commodity front, Gold is consolidating but remains bullish. Attention is on $1834.1, Jul 15 high and a bull trigger. WTI futures remain bullish and the contract is holding onto recent gains. The recovery from the Aug 23 low defined a key short-term support at $61.74, Aug 23 low where a break is required to reinstate a bearish theme.
• In FI, Bunds traded sharply lower at the beginning of the week and breached 175.66, Aug 27 low. Price action has also moved below the 50-day EMA reinforcing current bearish conditions. The focus is on trendline support at 175.11, drawn off the May 19 low. Gilt futures have cleared support at 128.33, Aug 12 low and 128.24, Aug 12 low. The break lower strengthens a bearish case and signals scope for 128.03, the Jul 6 low (cont).

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Back Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1965 50.0% retracement of the May - Aug sell-off
• RES 3: 1.1945 High Jun 28
• RES 2: 1.1909 High Jul 30 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1857 High Sep 01
• PRICE: 1.1836 @ 05:55 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 1.1779 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1735/1664 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1621 1.00 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD traded higher Wednesday and breached 1.1845, Aug 31 high to extend the current recovery. Price is once again above the 50-day EMA and the outlook for bulls will improve materially should it hold above the average. The EMA intersects at 1.1827. Attention is on 1.1909, the Jul 30 high and the next key short-term resistance. On the downside, the support to watch is 1.1735, Aug 27 low. A break would suggest the recent corrective rally is over.

GBPUSD TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: 1.3983/90 High Jul 30 / 61.8% of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
• RES 3: 1.3916 High Aug 9
• RES 2: 1.3824 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3808 High Aug 31
• PRICE: 1.3772 @ 06:06 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 1.3680/02 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 20
• SUP 2: 1.3572 Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3520 Low Jan 18
• SUP 4: 1.3452 Low, Jan 11

GBPUSD is unchanged and trading closer to recent highs. The pair found resistance Tuesday at 1.3808. Despite recent gains, a bearish theme still dominates following the sell-off between Jul 30 and Aug 20. Note too that price remains below its 50-day EMA, at 13824 today. A break of the average is required to strengthen a bullish case. A stronger sell-off would reinforce the bearish theme. Initial support to watch is 1.3680, Aug 27 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Breaching The 100 DMA

• RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8659 High Jul 21
• RES 2: 0.8618 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 10 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.8603 High Sep 01
• PRICE: 0.8595 @ 06:21 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 0.8543 Low Aug 24
• SUP 2: 0.8506 Low Jul 19
• SUP 3: 0.8484 Low Aug 16
• SUP 4: 0.8450 Low Aug 10 and a key support

EURGBP maintains a positive S/T tone and traded higher Wednesday. The cross continues to pull away from the 20- and 50-day EMAs breached recently. Note that the cross has also progressed through the 100-dma at 0.8588. A break of this average strengthens a bullish case and opens 0.8618 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support has been defined at 0.8543, Aug 24 low. A break would signal a reversal to bearish.

USDJPY TECHS: Range Bound

• RES 4: 111.66 High Jul 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 110.82 High Jul 7
• RES 2: 110.80 High Aug 11 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 110.42/46 High Sep 1 / High Aug 13
• PRICE: 110.01 @ 07:26 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 109.41 Low Aug 24
• SUP 2: 109.11/108.72 Low Aug 16 / Low Aug 04 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 4: 108.47 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally

USDJPY failed to hold onto Wednesday's high and is back in its range. Despite recent gains, the pair still appears vulnerable and attention is on the key support at 108.72, Aug 4 low. A breach of this level would strengthen a bearish case and open 108.47, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, key near-term resistance is unchanged at 110.80, Aug 11 high. A break would instead open key resistance at 111.66, Jul 2 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Holding Onto Gains

• RES 4: 131.77 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Aug sell-off
• RES 3: 131.09 High Jul 13
• RES 2: 130.56 High Jul 29
• RES 1: 130.45 High Sep 01
• PRICE: 130.22 @ 06:32 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 129.16 Low Aug 27
• SUP 2: 128.60 Low Aug 24
• SUP 3: 127.94 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 127.88 38.2% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jun rally

EURJPY continues to climb and has this week topped the 50-day EMA at 129.96. The breach of this average strengthens the current bull theme and suggests scope for gains towards 130.56, Jul 29 high. Key support and bear trigger has been defined at 127.94, Aug 19 low. Initial support lies at 129.16, Aug 27 low. A break of this level would signal a short-term top reinstate a bearish theme, exposing 127.94.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.7499 60.0% retracement of the May - Aug sell-off
• RES 3: 0.7487 High Jul 15
• RES 2: 0.7427 High Aug 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.7385/89 50-day EMA / High Aug 11
• PRICE: 0.7373 @ 06:43 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 0.7285 Low Aug 30
• SUP 2: 0.7222/7106 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.7053 38.2% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb uptrend
• SUP 4: 0.6991 Low Nov 2, 2020

AUDUSD maintains a firmer tone and traded higher yesterday. The pair has cleared the 20-day EMA and is approaching the 50-day EMA at 0.7385. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger bullish retracement. Recent gains are still considered corrective though. Support to watch is at 0.7222, Aug 27 low. A break would highlight a resumption of weakness and expose key support at 0.7106, Aug 20 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Consolidating Ahead Of The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2976 1.00 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2957 High Dec 21, 2020
• RES 2: 1.2834/ 2949 High Aug 23 / High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2708 High Aug 27
• PRICE: 1.2619 @ 06:48 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 1.2569 Low Aug 31
• SUP 2: 1.2536 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2422 Jul 30 low and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2303 Low Jul 6

USDCAD is unchanged and consolidating. The near-term outlook remains bearish. Activity on Aug 20 was a bearish reversal shooting star candle. The Aug 23 sell-off and particularly the weak close, reinforced the candle pattern highlighting a short-term bearish theme. Attention remains on 1.2536, the 50-day EMA and a key support. A clear break of the EMA would strengthen the current bearish theme. Key resistance is at 1.2949.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Testing Trendline Support

• RES 4: 177.61 High Aug 05 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 177.24 High Aug 17 and 19
• RES 2: 176.87 High Aug 25
• RES 1: 175.66/76.48 Low Aug 27 / High Aug 31
• PRICE: 175.23 @ 05:03 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 175.18/74.98 Trendline drawn from May 19 low / Low Sep 1
• SUP 2: 174.64 50.0% retracement of the Jul 22 - Aug 5 rally
• SUP 3: 173.94 61.8% retracement of the Jul 22 - Aug 5 rally
• SUP 4: 173.70 Low Jul 13 and 14

Bund futures traded lower again. Price action has moved below the 50-day EMA reinforcing current bearish conditions and trendline support at 175.18 today has been tested. The trendline is drawn off the May 19 low. A clear break would signal scope for a deeper sell-off and highlight a more meaningful reversal. This would open 174.64, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 176.48, Tuesday's high.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Bearish Structure

• RES 4: 135.640 High Aug 05 and the bull trigger
• RES 4: 135.430 High Aug 20 a key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 135.340 Aug 25 high
• RES 2: 135.270 High Aug 31
• PRICE: 134.960 @ 04:47 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 134.890 Low Sep 1
• SUP 2: 134.750 50.0% retracement of the Jun 22 - Aug 5 rally
• SUP 3: 134.672 Trendline support drawn from the May 20 low
• SUP 4: 134.540 61.8% retracement of the Jun 22 - Aug 5 rally

Bobl futures traded lower Tuesday and weakened further yesterday resuming the downtrend that started Aug 5. The contract has cleared recent support at 135.040, Aug 27 low and the 50-day EMA. This signals scope for a move towards 134.750 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Further out, trendline support intersects at 134.672. The trendline is drawn from the May 20 low. Key short-term resistance is at 135.270, Tuesday's high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Bearish Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 112.415 High Aug 05 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 112.390 High Aug 6
• RES 2: 112.330/350 High Aug 25 / High Aug 20 and key resistance
• RES 1: 112.325 High Aug 31
• PRICE: 112.270 @ 05:09 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 112.262 50.0% retracement of the Jun 22 - Aug 5 rally
• SUP 2: 112.245 Low Jul 21
• SUP 3: 112.227 50.0% retracement of the Jun 22 - Aug 5 rally
• SUP 4: 112.210 Low Jul 20

Schatz futures remain weak. The contract traded lower Tuesday resuming the downtrend that started Aug 5. Price has cleared recent support at 112.295, Aug 13, 16, 26 and 30 low and has also breached its 50-day EMA. With bearish conditions reinforced, scope is seen for a move towards 112.262 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Tuesday's high of 112.325 is seen as a key short-term resistance.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 130.72 High Aug 4 and the bull trigger (cont)
• RES 3: 130.53 High Aug 5 (cont)
• RES 2: 129.35 High Aug 20 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 129.05 High Aug 31
• PRICE: 128.47 @ Close Sep 1
• SUP 1: 128.03 Low Jul 6 (cont)
• SUP 2: 127.65 61.8% retracement of the Jun 3 - Aug rally (cont)
• SUP 3: 127.50 Low Jun 28 (cont)
• SUP 4: 127.25 Low Jun 23 (cont)

Gilt futures last week probed initial support at 128.33, Aug 12 low. On Tuesday, the contract confirmed a clear breach of this support trading below 128.24 too, the Aug 12 low. The break lower strengthens a bearish case and signals scope for an extension. Note too that the contract has cleared the 50-day EMA on the continuation chart. The focus is on 128.03, Jul 6 low (cont). Key near-term resistance has been defined at 129.05.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 157.71 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 155.43 High Aug 13
• RES 2: 155.11 High Aug 25
• RES 1: 154.55 High Aug 30
• PRICE: 153.40 @ Close Sep 1
• SUP 1: 153.02 Low Sep 1
• SUP 2: 152.84 50.0% retracement of the May 25 - Aug 5 rally
• SUP 3: 152.66 Low Jul 15
• SUP 4: 152.16 50.0% retracement of the May 25 - Aug 5 rally

BTP futures remain bearish. On Aug 25, the contract cleared a key support at 154.54 marking the base of a bull channel drawn off the May 19 low. The bearish breakout signals scope for a deeper corrective pullback and Tuesday's sell-off has confirmed a resumption of this downleg. The contract has cleared 153.53, Aug 26 low. This opens 152.84, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 154.55, Aug 30 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Fresh Trend High

• RES 4: 4341.40 1.382 proj of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4294.20 1.236 proj of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing
• RES 2: 4258.35 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 4249.50 High Sep 1
• PRICE: 4219.00 @ 05:43 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 4138.50 Low Aug 26
• SUP 2: 4078.00 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4026.20 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Aug 13 rally
• SUP 4: 3944.00 Low Jul 21

EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend conditions remain bullish. The contract traded higher yesterday and breached 4238.50, Aug 13 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 4294.20, 1.236 projection of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing. Key support has been defined at 4078.00, Aug 19 low. A break is required to signal a reversal. Initial firm support is at 4138.50, Aug 26 low.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Consolidating Near Recent Highs

• RES 4: 4610.63 1.50 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4580.21 1.382 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4542.58 1.236 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• PRICE: 4520.00 @ 06:56 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 4462.29 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4389.35 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4347.75 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4224.00 Low Jul 19 and key support

S&P E-minis are consolidating. The outlook is bullish and the contract traded higher Tuesday, registering a fresh all-time high confirming a resumption of the underlying uptrend. The contract's recent recovery from 4347.75, Aug 19 low means the 50-day EMA remains intact and this reinforces bullish conditions. The average intersects at 4389.35 and represents a key trend support. A clear break of the average is required to signal a S/T reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X1) Bullish Conditions Intact

• RES 4: $75.13 - High Jul 14
• RES 3: $74.84 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $73.47 - Bear channel top drawn off the Jul 6 high
• RES 1: $72.69 - High Aug 30
• PRICE: $71.30 @ 06:54 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: $69.77/$68.13 - Low Aug 26 / Low Aug 24
• SUP 2: $64.20 - Low Aug 23
• SUP 3: $63.54 - Low May 21 and a key support
• SUP 4: $63.14 - 1.236 proj of the Jul 6 - 20 - 30 price swing

Brent futures remain bullish and the contract is holding onto recent gains. The recovery last week defined a key short-term support at $64.20, Aug 23 low where a break is required to reinstate a bearish theme. Attention is on $73.47, a bear channel top drawn off the Jul 6 high. Clearance of this channel top would strengthen bullish conditions. Initial support is at $69.77, the Aug 26 low.

WTI TECHS: (V1) Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: $71.85 - Bear channel top drawn from the Jul 6 high
• RES 3: $71.29 - High Aug 3
• RES 2: $70.74 - 764.% retracement of the Jul 30 - Aug 23 sell-off
• RES 1: $69.64 - High Aug 30
• PRICE: $68.26 @ 07:00 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: $66.92/65.41 - Low Aug 25 / Low Aug 24
• SUP 2: $61.74 - Low Aug 23 and key support
• SUP 3: $60.81 - 1.236 proj of the Jul 6 - 20 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4: $60.68 - Low May 21

WTI futures remain bullish and the contract is holding onto recent gains. The recovery from the Aug 23 low defined a key short-term support at $61.74, Aug 23 low where a break is required to reinstate a bearish theme. Short-term, further gains are likely and the focus is on $70.74, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support lies at $66.92, the Aug 25 low. A break would be seen as an initial bearish threat.

GOLD TECHS: Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: $1863.3 - High Jun 16
• RES 3: $1853.3 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 2: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $1823.3 - High Aug 30
• PRICE: $1814.1 @ 07:14 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: $1774.5 - Low Aug 19
• SUP 2: $1751.7 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 3: $1717.8 - Low Aug 10
• SUP 4: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger

Gold is unchanged but maintains a bullish tone. The yellow metal recently cleared its 50-day EMA. The break of this average confirms a resumption of the upleg from Aug 9. This signals scope for a climb towards resistance at $1834.1, Jul 15 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, initial support is unchanged at $1774.5, Aug 19 low. A move through this support would be bearish and signal a short-term reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Correction Still In Play

• RES 4: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 3: $26.002 - High Aug 04 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $24.769 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $24.375 - High Aug 9
• PRICE: $24.175 @ 07:20 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: $22.878/626 - Low Aug 20 / Low Aug 09 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $21.899 - Low Nov 30, 2020
• SUP 3: $20.871 - 50% retracement of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 rally
• SUP 4: $20.000 - Psychological round number

Silver is trading closer to recent highs. A bearish risk remains present despite short-term gains. Moving average conditions continue to highlight a bearish theme and note that price action since Aug 9 still appears to be a flag - a bearish formation. A break and close below the Aug 9 low of $22.626 would confirm a resumption of bearish pressure and open 20.871, 50% of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 range. $24.375 marks the next resistance.