MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - CAD Condition Remains Bullish
Price Signal Summary – CAD Trend Condition Remains Bullish
- A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest shallow pullback appears to be a correction. Recent gains reinforce a bullish theme and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode setup, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Eurostoxx 50 futures recently breached resistance at 5024.00, the Sep 3 high. This confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Aug 5 and cancels a recent bearish theme. It also suggests that the pullback this week is likely a correction.
- GBPUSD maintains a softer short-term tone following this week’s sell-off. The pair has breached support at the 20-day EMA and has pierced the 50-day EMA at 1.3113. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bearish threat and open 1.3049, a Fibonacci retracement. USDJPY is holding on to this week’s gains. The rally from the Sep 30 low has resulted in a print above resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 146.22. A clear break of this average would undermine a bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. The trend condition in USDCAD remains bearish and the latest recovery appears to be a correction - for now. The strong Sep 24 sell-off reinforced a bearish theme. The pair breached support at 1.3441, the Aug 28 low, confirming a resumption of the downtrend that started Aug 5.
- Gold is in consolidation mode. The trend condition is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.WTI futures traded higher Thursday, extending the rally that started on Oct 1. Short-term gains appear to be corrective, however, the break of the 50-day EMA suggests potential for an extension near-term.
- Bund futures traded sharply higher Tuesday resulting in a break above key resistance at 135.66 - a bullish development. However, the contract has pulled back from its latest highs. A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present - for now - and this week’s extension reinforces the bearish theme. The contract has traded through support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low and a bear trigger.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Double Top Reversal Threat?
- RES 4: 1.1342 2.00 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
- RES 2: 1.1214/34 High Sep 25 / 1.618 proj Jun 26-Jul 17-Aug 1 swing
- RES 1: 1.1098/1144 20-day EMA / High Oct 1
- PRICE: 1.1027 @ 05:54 BST Oct 4
- SUP 1: 1.1002 Low Sep 11 and double top mid-point
- SUP 2: 1.0940 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0909 Low Aug 9
- SUP 4: 1.0878 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
The trend in EURUSD remains bullish, however, this week’s move down highlights scope for a deeper corrective pullback and for now, the pair maintains a softer tone. The 50-day EMA has been breached and this signals scope for a deeper retracement towards 1.1002, the Sep 11 low and the next key support. Clearance of this level would highlight a double top reversal. Initial resistance is at 1.1098, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Tests Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.3527 2.00 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3500 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3389/3434 Oct 1 / High Sep 26 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3242 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3132 @ 06:13 BST Oct 4
- SUP 1: 1.3113/3092 50-day EMA / Low Oct 3
- SUP 2: 1.3049 50.0% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.3002 Low Sep 11
- SUP 4: 1.2959 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg
GBPUSD maintains a softer short-term tone following this week’s sell-off. The pair has breached support at the 20-day EMA and has pierced the 50-day EMA at 1.3113. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bearish threat and open 1.3049, a Fibonacci retracement. For now, the medium-term trend condition remains bullish. Initial resistance to watch is 1.3242, the 20-day EMA. A break of it would signal a possible bullish reversal.
EURGBP TECHS: Potential Base Building
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 3: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8444 High sep 18
- RES 1: 0.8434 High Oct 3
- PRICE: 0.8400 @ 06:39 BST Oct 4
- SUP 1: 0.8381/8311 20-day EMA / Low Oct 1
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
The trend condition in EURGBP remains bearish, however, Thursday’s strong rally highlights potential base building, particularly given the fact that the cross is trading close to the base of its 0.9300 - 0.8300 multi-year range. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend - for now. Key support is at 0.8311, the Oct 1 low. Key resistance to watch is 0.8464, the Sep 11 high.
USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 150.76 50.0% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 149.39 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 2: 148.13 38.2% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 147.24 High Oct 3
- PRICE: 146.06 @ 06:56 BST Oct 4
- SUP 1: 144.18 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 141.65 Low Sep 30
- SUP 3: 140.45 Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: 139.58 Low Sep 16 and the bear trigger
USDJPY is holding on to this week’s gains. The rally from the Sep 30 low has resulted in a print above resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 146.22. A clear break of this average would undermine a bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 149.39, the Aug 15 high. It is still possible that short-term gains are corrective. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 139.58, the Sep 16 low.
EURJPY TECHS: Trading Below Key Resistance
- RES 4: 166.53 High Jul 31
- RES 3: 165.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 163.89 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 163.49 High Sep 27
- PRICE: 161.14 @ 07:19 BST Oct 4
- SUP 1: 158.11/155.15 Low Sep 30 / Low Sep 16
- SUP 2: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 154.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY has traded higher this week, resulting in a print above the 50-day EMA of 161.45. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 163.49, the Sep 27 high, and 163.89, the Aug 15 high. A clear break of both price points would highlight a potential reversal. For now, trend signals remain bearish and gains are considered corrective. A resumption of bearish price action would open 155.15, Sep 16 low, and 154.42, Aug 5 low and a bear trigger.
AUDUSD TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend
- RES 4: 0.7029 High Feb 14 ‘23
- RES 3: 0.7003 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 0.6984 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - 29 - Sep 11 price swing
- RES 1: 0.6942 High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6842 @ 07:56 BST Oct 4
- SUP 1: 0.6818 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6750 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6622 Low Sep 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.6608 Low Aug 16
An uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Key resistance at 0.6824, the Aug 29 high, has recently been cleared confirming a resumption of the bull cycle that started Aug 5. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 0.6984 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 0.6818, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Phase
- RES 4: 1.3739 High Aug 15
- RES 3: 1.3693 High Aug 19
- RES 2: 1.3647 High Sep 19 and key resistance
- RES 1: 1.3584 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3566 @ 08:02 BST Oct 4
- SUP 1: 1.3473/3420 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3413 Low Feb 9
- SUP 3: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 ‘23 - Aug 5 bull run
- SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
The trend condition in USDCAD remains bearish and the latest recovery appears to be a correction - for now. The strong Sep 24 sell-off reinforced a bearish theme. The pair breached support at 1.3441, the Aug 28 low, confirming a resumption of the downtrend that started Aug 5. This paves the way for an extension towards 1.3358, a Fibonacci retracement. Resistance to watch is 1.3584, 50-day EMA. A break would expose 1.3647, Sep 19 high.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Pullback Extends
- RES 4: 137.85 1.382 projection of the Sep 2 - 11 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: 136.77 1.00 projection of the Sep 2 - 11 - 20 price swing
- RES 2: 136.37 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 2 bear leg
- RES 1: 135.24/136.20 High Oct 3 / 1 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 134.54 @ 05:30 BST Oct 4
- SUP 1: 134.64 Low Oct 3
- SUP 2: 134.31/133.99 Low Sep 27 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 132.65 Low Sep 2 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 132.25 Low Jul 29
Bund futures traded sharply higher Tuesday resulting in a break above key resistance at 135.66 - a bullish development. However, the contract has pulled back from its latest highs. The move down appears to be a correction - for now. The 20-day EMA, at 134.66, has been pierced. A clear break would expose the 50-day EMA, at 133.99. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 136.20, the Oct 1 high and bull trigger.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Watching Support
- RES 4: 121.379 1.236 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: 121.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 120.99 1.00 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: 120.650 High Oct 1
- PRICE: 119.810@ 05:50 BST Oct 4
- SUP 1: 119.800/ 780 20-day EMA / Low Oct 3
- SUP 2: 119.660 Low Sep 27
- SUP 3: 119.340 Low Sep 20 and key support
- SUP 4: 119.210 Low Sep 5
The trend condition in Bobl futures is bullish and Tuesday’s rally reinforces this theme. The subsequent pullback, for now, is considered corrective. The contract has traded through 120.230, the Sep 11 high and a bull trigger, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are set on 120.990 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 119.800, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a break would expose 119.340, the Sep 20 and key support.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 107.693 1.382 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 107.600 1.236 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 107.450 1.00 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 107.225/335 High Oct 3 / 1 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 107.090 @ 06:02 BST Oct 4
- SUP 1: 107.030 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 106.815 Low Sep 18
- SUP 3: 106.675 Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: 105.520 Low Sep 3 and a key support
A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and the latest pullback has been a correction. Tuesday’s gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend - key resistance at 107.155, the Sep 11 high, has been breached. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and paves the way for a climb towards 107.450, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is 107.030, the 20-day EMA.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Clears Support
- RES 4: 101.06 High sep 18
- RES 3: 100.39 High Sep 19
- RES 2: 100.00 High Sep 23
- RES 1: 99.47 High Oct and key short-term resistance
- PRICE: 98.38 @ Close Oct 3
- SUP 1: 97.97 Low Oct 2
- SUP 2: 97.85 0.50 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 97.47 0.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 4: 96.99 0.764 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present - for now - and this week’s extension reinforces the bearish theme. The contract has traded through support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low and a bear trigger. The break strengthens the downtrend, signalling scope for a deeper retracement, towards 97.47, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 99.47, the Oct 1 high and just above the 20-day EMA.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 123.40 3.500 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 1: 122.62 High Oct 1
- PRICE: 121.27 @ Close Oct 3
- SUP 1: 120.86/17 20-day EMA / Low Sep 19
- SUP 2: 119.32 Low Sep 9
- SUP 3: 118.85 Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: 118.16 Low Sep 2 and key support
The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures is bullish and Tuesday’s rally reinforces this theme. The contract has cleared key short-term resistance at 121.59, the Sep 17 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. This maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows and scope is seen for a climb towards 122.78, a Fibonacci projection. The latest pullback appears to be a correction. Initial firm support lies at 120.86, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 5256.00 1.00 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5138.24 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 5048.00/5106.00 High Oct 1 / High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 4946.00 @ 06:10 BST Oct 4
- SUP 1: 4922.94 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 4848.00/4757.00 Low Sep 13 / Low Sep 6 and 10
- SUP 3: 4813.00 Low Sep 12
- SUP 4: 4757.00 Low Sep 6 / 10 and key support
Eurostoxx 50 futures recently breached resistance at 5024.00, the Sep 3 high. This confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Aug 5 and cancels a recent bearish theme. It also suggests that the pullback this week is likely a correction. Key short-term support to watch is 4922.94, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 5106.00, the Sep 30 high.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Pullback Appears To Be Corrective
- RES 4: 5900.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5871.77 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 2: 5868.50 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: 5830.00 High Sep 26
- PRICE: 5752.25 @ 07:18 BST Oct 4
- SUP 1: 5728.91 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5660.56 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5500.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 5451.25 Low Sep 6 and a bear trigger
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest shallow pullback appears to be a correction. Recent gains reinforce a bullish theme and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode setup, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 5868.50, a Fibonacci projection, and 5900.00 further out. On the downside, initial support to watch is 5728.91, the 20-day EMA. Key support lies at 5660.56, the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (Z4) Bull Cycle Extends
- RES 4: $83.02 - High Jul 18
- RES 3: $81.47 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 2: $79.68 - High Aug 26
- RES 1: $78.95 - 61.8% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- PRICE: $77.46 @ 06:38 BST Oct 4
- SUP 1: $73.57 - 20-Day EMA
- SUP 2: $69.91/68.29 - Low Oct 1 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $67.73 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $66.12 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures traded sharply higher yesterday and for now, the contract is holding on to its gains. It is still possible that the recent rally is a correction, however, the clear break of the 50-day EMA, suggests potential for a continuation higher near-term. Scope is seen for a climb towards $78.95 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support to watch is $73.57, the 20-day EMA. A clear break would be seen as an early reversal signal.
WTI TECHS: (X4) Has Cleared The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $79.69 - High Jul 18
- RES 3: $77.70 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 2: $76.40 - High Aug 26
- RES 1: $75.20 - 61.8% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- PRICE: $73.59 @ 06:59 BST Oct 4
- SUP 1: $70.15 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $66.33/64.61 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.89 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
WTI futures traded higher Thursday, extending the rally that started on Oct 1. Short-term gains appear to be corrective, however, the break of the 50-day EMA suggests potential for an extension near-term. This has exposed $75.20, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch is $70.15, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would highlight a potential reversal and a resumption of the downtrend.
GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $2708.4 - 2.764 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2697.9 - 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2690.2 - 2.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2685.6 - High Sep 26
- PRICE: $2666.1 @ 07:24 BST Oct 4
- SUP 1: $2624.8 - Low Sep 30
- SUP 2: $2607.8 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2547.0 - Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: $2535.8 - 50-day EMA
Gold is in consolidation mode. The trend condition is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. The focus is on $2690.2 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at $2607.8, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: $33.738 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 3: $33.297 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $32.715 - High Sep 26
- PRICE: $32.033 @ 08:10 BST Oct 4
- SUP 1: $30.847/29.981 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: $28.535 - Low Sep 12
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 and a key support
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and recent gains reinforce this set-up. The metal has recently traded through resistance at $31.754, the Jul 11 high. Note too that price has pierced $32.518, the May 20 high and a key resistance. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and open $33.297, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at $29.981, the 50-day EMA.