MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - CAD Losing Streak Extends
Price Signal Summary – CAD Losing Streak Extends
- A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and Monday’s gains reinforce the current trend condition. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading higher this week. Key short-term support to watch is 4943.25, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Recently, the contract breached resistance at 5024.00, the Sep 3 high.
- GBPUSD is unchanged. The short-term trend condition remains bearish and the pair is trading just ahead of its recent lows. Price action remains below the 20-day EMA and attention is on the next important support at 1.3002, the Sep 11 low. USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. The latest rally resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA, a bullish development that undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal.USDCAD continues to extend its winning streak of higher highs and higher lows and is again trading higher this week. Short-term gains confirm an extension of the bull cycle that started Sep 25. Sights are on 1.3822 next, a Fibonacci retracement point.
- The recent short-term retracement in Gold appears to have been a correction. The trend condition is unchanged and remains bullish. MA studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. WTI futures have gapped lower today and this has resulted in a break of the Oct 9 low. An extension lower would threaten the recent bullish theme and expose support at $66.33, the Oct 1 low, and $64.61, the Sep 10 low and a key support.
- A bearish theme in Bund futures remains intact and price continues to trade below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The contract is also trading closer to its recent lows. Attention is on the next key support at 132.65, the Sep 2 low. A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present and the recent impulsive sell-off reinforces a bearish theme. The contract has traded through support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low and a bear trigger.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 1.1144 High Oct 1
- RES 3: 1.1083 High Oct 2
- RES 2: 1.1021 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0955 High Oct 10
- PRICE: 1.0892 @ 06:09 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: 1.0888 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 1.0881 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 25 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0778 Low Aug 1 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.0736 Low Jul 3
EURUSD remains in a bear cycle. The pair traded lower Monday and is trading at its recent lows. Support at 1.1002, the Sep 11 low, has been breached. This level marked the midpoint of a double top reversal pattern on the daily chart and the formation highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on 1.0881, a Fibonacci retracement and the next important support. Initial firm resistance is at 1.1021, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.3434 High Sep 26 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3389 High Oct 1
- RES 2: 1.3305 High Oct 2 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3159 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3045 @ 06:18 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: 1.3022 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 1.3002 Low Sep 11 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.2959 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.2890 Low Aug 18
GBPUSD is unchanged. The short-term trend condition remains bearish and the pair is trading just ahead of its recent lows. Price action remains below the 20-day EMA and attention is on the next important support at 1.3002, the Sep 11 low. A clear break of this level would expose 1.2959, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 1.3159, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would signal a reversal.
EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 3: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8453 High Sep 18
- RES 1: 0.8434 High Oct 3
- PRICE: 0.8350 @ 06:31 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: 0.8343/11 Intraday low / Low Oct 1 and a key S/T support
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
EURGBP continues to trade within the Oct 3 range. The rally on this day highlights a possible reversal and note that the cross is trading close to the base of its 0.9300 - 0.8300 multi-year range and a key area of support. For now, MA studies are in a bear-mode position - highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key support is 0.8311, Oct 1 low. Key resistance is 0.8464, Sep 11 high and a reversal trigger. First resistance is at 0.8434, Oct 23 high.
USDJPY TECHS: Holding On To Its Latest Gains
- RES 4: 153.40 61.8% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.94 Low Jul 25
- RES 2: 150.76 50.0% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 149.98 High Oct 14
- PRICE: 149.51 @ 06:52 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: 147.35/146.57 Low Oct 8 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 143.43/141.65 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 30
- SUP 3: 140.45 Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: 139.58 Low Sep 16 and the bear trigger
USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. The latest rally resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA, a bullish development that undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on 150.76, the 50% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg. Initial firm support to watch is 146.57, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal.
EURJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 166.53 High Jul 31
- RES 3: 165.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 163.89 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 163.61 High Oct 10
- PRICE: 162.88 @ 07:02 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: 161.52 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 158.11/155.15 Low Sep 30 / Low Sep 16
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode with price trading at its recent highs. Key short-term resistance is at 163.49, the Sep 27 high (pierced), and 163.89, the Aug 15 high. Clearance of both levels is required to highlight a potential reversal. For now, trend signals are bearish and gains are still considered corrective. A reversal lower and a resumption of bearish price action would open 154.42, Aug 5 low and the bear trigger.
AUDUSD TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6984 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - 29 - Sep 11 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6942 High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6852/6889 High Oct 4 / 3
- RES 1: 0.6781 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6713 @ 07:55 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: 0.6702 Low Oct 10 / 14
- SUP 2: 0.6646 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6622 Low Sep 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.6576 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
AUDUSD is unchanged and in consolidation mode. A bearish theme remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has recently traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the 50-day average, at 0.6749, would undermine a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 0.6622, the Sep 11 low and a key support. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 0.6942, the Sep 30 high.
USDCAD TECHS: Overbought But Bull Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 1.3946 High Aug 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3856/3913 High Aug 6 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.3822 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 25 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3815 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.3803 @ 08:4 BST Oct 17
- SUP 1: 1.3696/3622 Low Oct 10 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3567 Low Oct 7
- SUP 3: 1.3473/3420 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.3413 Low Feb 9
USDCAD continues to extend its winning streak of higher highs and higher lows and is again trading higher this week. Short-term gains confirm an extension of the bull cycle that started Sep 25. Sights are on 1.3822 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. A break of this level would reinforce a bullish theme. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3622, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective and allow an overbought condition to unwind.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 136.20 High Oct 1 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 135.24 High Oct 3
- RES 2: 134.63 High Oct 4
- RES 1: 133.84/134.00 50- and 20-day EMA values
- PRICE: 133.43 @ 05:48 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: 132.75 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2 132.65 Low Sep 2 and a key support:
- SUP 3: 132.25 Low Jul 29
- SUP 4: 131.66 Low Jul 26
A bearish theme in Bund futures remains intact and price continues to trade below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The contract is also trading closer to its recent lows. Attention is on the next key support at 132.65, the Sep 2 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. Initial firm resistance is at 134.00, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a possible reversal.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 120.650 High Oct 1 and key resistance
- RES 3: 120.190 High Oct 3
- RES 2: 119.870 High Oct 4
- RES 1: 119.260/119.408 High Oct 9 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 119.070 @ 05:59 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: 118.620 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 118.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 117.789 123.6% retrace projection of the Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull leg
Bobl futures are in consolidation mode and trading closer to their recent lows. The reversal from the Oct 1 high, undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The contract has traded through a number of short-term retracement points and has recently breached the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would open 118.580, the Sep 3 low. Initial resistance is 119.408, the 20-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Bear Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 107.450 1.00 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 107.225/335 High Oct 3 / 1 and key resistance
- RES 2: 107.110 High Oct 4
- RES 1: 106.892 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 106.775 @ 06:09 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: 106.580 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 106.520 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 106.328 123.6% retracement proj of Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 106.209 138.2% retracement proj of Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull cycle
A short-term bearish threat in Schatz futures remains intact following the extended reversal from the Oct 1 high. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and breached not only 106.815, the Sep 18 low, but also 106.712, 76.4% of the Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull cycle. Sights are on 106.520, the Sep 3 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 106.892, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would signal a possible reversal.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Bearish Set-Up
- RES 4: 99.47 High Oct and key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 98.53 High Oct 3
- RES 2: 98.11 Low Sep 2
- RES 1: 96.93/97.76 High Oct 7 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 96.03 @ Close Oct 14
- SUP 1: 95.83 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 95.47 1.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 95.12 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 94.99 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present and the recent impulsive sell-off reinforces a bearish theme. The contract has traded through support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low and a bear trigger. The break strengthens the downtrend, signalling scope for a deeper retracement. The 96.00 handle has now given way, exposing 95.47, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 98.11, the Sep 2 low.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Testing Support
- RES 4: 123.40 3.500 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 1: 121.39/122.62 High Oct 4 / 1 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 120.54 @ Close Oct 14
- SUP 1: 119.97 Low Oct 11
- SUP 2: 119.58 38.2% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 118.64 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 117.34 Low Jul 26
The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures is bullish. However, a short-term bearish threat exists for now, following the reversal from the Oct 1 high. This move down highlights a corrective cycle. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and pierced support at 120.17, the Sep 19 low and a key support. A clear break of this support would expose 119.58, a Fibonacci retracement. The bull trigger is 122.62, the Oct 1 high.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 5256.00 1.00 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5138.24 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 5106.00 High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5069.00 @ 06:33 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: 4943.25 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 4848.00/4757.00 Low Sep 13 / Low Sep 6 and 10
- SUP 3: 4813.00 Low Sep 12
- SUP 4: 4757.00 Low Sep 6 / 10 and key support
Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading higher this week. Key short-term support to watch is 4943.25, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Recently, the contract breached resistance at 5024.00, the Sep 3 high. This confirmed a resumption of the bull leg that started Aug 5 and cancels a recent bearish theme. Key resistance and bull trigger is unchanged 5106.00, the Sep 30 high. A break resumes the uptrend.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Primary Uptrend Extends
- RES 4: 6012.75 1.00 projection of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6000.00 Psychological handle
- RES 2: 5961.00 1.00 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18
- RES 1: 5918.50 Intraday high
- PRICE: 5910.50 @ 07:24 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: 5782.19/5724.00 20-day EMA / Low Oct 2
- SUP 2: 5701.99 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 13
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and Monday’s gains reinforce the current trend condition. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode setup, highlighting a dominant uptrend Sights are on 5961.00, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is 5782.19, the 20-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (Z4) Breaches Near-Term Support
- RES 4: $86.86 - High Apr 12 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $85.54 - High Jul 5
- RES 2: $83.02 - High Jul 18
- RES 1: $81.16/47 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- PRICE: $74.62 @ 07:05 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: $74.26 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $69.91/68.29 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $67.73 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $66.12 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures have gapped lower today and this has resulted in a break of the contract’s most recent lows. A continuation lower would threaten the recent bullish theme and expose support at $69.91, the Oct 1 low, and $68.29, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $81.16, the Oct 7 high. Clearance of this level would resume to the recent uptrend.
WTI TECHS: (X4) Breaches Support
- RES 4: $82.59 - High Apr 12 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $81.75 - High Jul 5
- RES 2: $79.69 - High Jul 18
- RES 1: $76.24/78.46 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $71.14 @ 07:16 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: $70.75 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $66.33/64.61 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.89 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
WTI futures have gapped lower today and this has resulted in a break of the Oct 9 low. An extension lower would threaten the recent bullish theme and expose support at $66.33, the Oct 1 low, and $64.61, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $78.46, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume to the recent uptrend.
GOLD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: $2708.4 - 2.764 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2720.5 - 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2690.2 - 2.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2685.6 - High Sep 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $2643.9 @ 07:19 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: $2622.9/2604.9 - 20-day EMA / Low Oct 8
- SUP 2: $2584.9 - Low Sep 20
- SUP 3: $2560.6 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $2531.8 - High Aug 20
The recent short-term retracement in Gold appears to have been a correction. The trend condition is unchanged and remains bullish. MA studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $2690.2, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at $2622.9, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
SILVER TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: $33.738 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 3: $33.297 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $31.780/32.963 - High Oct 8 / 4 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $31.130 @ 08:07 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: $30.294 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $29.271 - Trendline support drawn from the Aug 8 low
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 and a key support
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and recent short-term weakness is considered corrective. Last week’s move down resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA. Attention turns to support at the 50-day EMA, at $30.294. A clear break of this EMA would undermine a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a reversal higher would signal the end of the correction and refocus attention on $32.963, the Oct 4 high.