MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Corrective Cycle Remains at Play in EuroStoxx50

Price Signal Summary – Corrective Cycle Remains at Play in EuroStoxx50

• The short-term trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bearish. This week’s move lower reinforces the current condition - the contract has traded through support at the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower near-term. Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading at their recent lows. A bearish corrective cycle remains in play and the move down this month has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The contract has tested support at 4856.70, the 50-day EMA.
• A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the pair is trading just above its recent low. The clear break of 1.2519, the Feb 5 low, strengthens a bearish theme and signals a stronger reversal signal. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up. The USDJPY bull cycle remains in play and this week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The break higher last week confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and last week’s break higher together with this week’s gains, reinforce current conditions. The pair has cleared resistance and congestion at 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 high.
• The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and remains bullish plus the yellow metal is trading closer to its recent highs. The latest rally maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition. A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest move lower is considered corrective - for now. Recent gains reinforced current bullish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The contract has breached $84.87, the Sep 15 ‘23 high.
• The trend outlook in Bund futures remains bearish and yesterday’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The contract has pierced key support at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and the contract traded lower again yesterday, delivering a fresh cycle low of 96.03. The move down maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.0943 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 1.0885 High Apr 09
• RES 2: 1.0769/0813 20- and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.0725 Low Apr 2
• PRICE: 1.0625 @ 05:47 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 1.0601 Low Apr 16
• SUP 2: 1.0568 Low Nov 2 ‘23
• SUP 3: 1.0537 1.00 proj of the Dec 28 - Feb 14 - Mar 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.0517 Low Nov 1 ‘23

The current downtrend in EURUSD remains intact and the pair traded to a fresh cycle low yesterday. Last week’s break of key support at 1.0695, the Feb 14 low and bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle. Support at 1.0611, 76.4% of the Oct - Dec bull rally, has been pierced and this opens 1.0568 next, the Nov 2 2023 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.0769, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 1.2865 High Mar 11
• RES 3: 1.2803 High Mar 21
• RES 2: 1.2586/2709 20-day EMA / High Apr 09
• RES 1: 1.2540 Low Apr 2 / 1
• PRICE: 1.2429 @ 05:58 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 1.2406 Low Apr 17
• SUP 2: 1.2364 61.8% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.2266 Low Nov 14 ‘23
• SUP 4: 1.2239 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg

A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the pair is trading just above its recent low. The clear break of 1.2519, the Feb 5 low, strengthens a bearish theme and signals a stronger reversal signal. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up and this highlights a clear short-term downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 1.2364, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 1.2709, the Apr 10 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8678 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.8607 23.6% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 1: 0.8586/8602 High Apr 05 / High Mar 22 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.8548 @ 06:28 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 0.8527/8504 Low Apr 15 / Low Mar 8
• SUP 2: 0.8498/93 Low Feb 14 / Low Aug 23 2023 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

EURGBP is in consolidation mode and the cross is trading within this year’s broad range. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 0.8602, Mar 22 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a continuation of the recovery that started Feb 14 and open 0.8678, a Fibonacci retracement point. Support to watch is 0.8527, Apr 15 low. A clear break of this level would expose key support at 0.8498/93, Feb 14 and Aug 23 2023 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Overbought But Trend Remains Up

• RES 4: 156.47 2.00 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 3: 155.29 1.764 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 2: 155.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 154.79 High Apr 16
• PRICE: 154.66 @ 06:39 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 152.59 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 152.11/150.58 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 149.03 Low Mar 19
• SUP 4: 147.44 Low Mar 14

The USDJPY bull cycle remains in play and this week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The break higher last week confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The trend is overbought, however, this is not - for now - a concern for bulls. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too. Sights are on the 155.00 handle next. Support lies at 151.84, 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Key Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 167.55 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 166.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 165.35 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 165.17 High Apr 09
• PRICE: 163.98 @ 07:07 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 163.35/162.28 Trendline from Dec 7 ‘23 low / Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 161.07 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 160.72 38.2% retracement of the Dec 7 ‘23 - Mar 20 rally
• SUP 4: 160.22 Low Mar 11

The trend condition in EURJPY remains bullish and the cross continues to trade above key support at 163.35 - a trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. A clear break of this trendline is required to signal a short-term reversal and this would also highlight a break of the 50-day EMA, at 162.80. For bulls, key resistance is unchanged at 165.35, the Mar 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.6644 High Apr 9
• RES 3: 0.6546 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6524 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6481 Low Apr 1 and a recent breakout level
• PRICE: 0.6426 @ 07:55 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 0.6389 Low Apr 16
• SUP 2: 0.6360 Low Nov 14
• SUP 3: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6315 Low Oct 31

AUDUSD remains vulnerable following last week’s move lower and this week’s extension. Key support at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low, has been cleared and this highlights an important technical breach and confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6339, the Nov 10 ‘23 low. Firm resistance is seen at 0.6546, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘22 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3855 High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3846 High Apr 16
• PRICE: 1.3809 @ 08:04 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 1.3682 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 1.3634 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3569 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and last week’s break higher together with this week’s gains, reinforce current conditions. The pair has cleared resistance and congestion at 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 high. Sights are on 1.3855 next, the Nov 10 ‘23 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear rising trend. Initial firm support lies at 1.3634, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Trend Structure Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 134.15 High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 133.48 High Mar 27
• RES 2: 133.05 High Apr 12
• RES 1: 132.23 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 131.26 @ 05:24 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 130.97 Low Apr 16
• SUP 2: 130.87 1.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 130.25 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support

The trend outlook in Bund futures remains bearish and yesterday’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The contract has pierced key support at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. Attention is on 130.87 and 130.25, Fibonacci projections. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 133.05, the Apr 12 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Bearish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 118.790 High Feb 15 and Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 118.460 High Mar 12
• RES 3: 118.100/118.310 High Apr 12 / High Mar 27
• RES 1: 117.726 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117.180 @ 05:37 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 117.200/060 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger / Low Apr 16
• SUP 2: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 116.740 High Mar 5 (cont)
• SUP 4: 116.518 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing

A bearish threat in Bobl futures remains present and this week’s move lower reinforces current bearish conditions. Key support to watch lies at 117.200, the Feb 29 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would confirm a continuation of the downtrend that started early December last year and open 116.740, the Mar 5 high (cont). For bulls, a break of resistance at 118.310, the Mar 27 high, would instead highlight a short-term reversal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Heading South

• RES 4: 106.040 Low Feb 15
• RES 3: 106.010 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 105.790/875 High Mar 25 and key resistance / High Mar 12
• RES 1: 105.680 High Apr 12
• PRICE: 105.425 @ 06:04 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 105.355 Low Apr 11
• SUP 2: 105.310 High Feb 26 (cont)
• SUP 3: 105.295 1.236 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 105.106 1.382 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing

The trend condition in Schatz futures remains bearish and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. The move higher last Friday is considered corrective - for now. The break of support at 105.490, Feb 29 / Apr 9 low and bear trigger, confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. The focus is on 105.295, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 105.790, the Mar 25 high.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 100.05 High Mar 22
• RES 3: 99.37 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 99.10 High Apr 10
• RES 1: 96.83/98.23 Low Feb 29 / High Apr 12 and the 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 96.29 @ Close Apr 16
• SUP 1: 96.03 Low Apr 16
• SUP 2: 95.96 1.764 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
• SUP 3: 95.41 2.00 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 95.00 Round number support

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and the contract traded lower again yesterday, delivering a fresh cycle low of 96.03. The move down maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies have crossed and highlight a bear-mode set-up. Scope is seen for an extension towards 95.96 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 98.23, the Apr 12 high.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 121.19 2.382 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 119.55/120.28 High Mar 27 / 14
• RES 1: 119.10 High Apr 10
• PRICE: 116.86 @ Close Apr 16
• SUP 1: 116.52 Low Feb 29
• SUP 2: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 116.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 115.70 Low Dec 8 ‘23 (cont)

A bearish threat in BTP futures remains present and this week’s move lower reinforces this theme. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and a breach of 118.33, the Mar 15 low. Attention is on 116.52, the Feb 29 low and 116.15, the Feb 22 low and a key support. A clear break of the latter would signal a stronger reversal. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 119.10, the Mar 27 high, would instead reinstate a bull cycle.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Testing Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 5170.50 1.50 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 5100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4990.00/5079.00 High Apr 15 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4872.00 @ 06:18 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 4856.70/4851.00 50-day EMA / Low Apr 17
• SUP 2: 4826.00 Low Mar 5
• SUP 3: 4800.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4771.00 Low Feb 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading at their recent lows. A bearish corrective cycle remains in play and the move down this month has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The contract has tested support at 4856.70, the 50-day EMA and a key pivot price point. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 4826.00, the Mar 5 low. Initial resistance to watch is 4990.00, the Apr 15 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 5400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 5285.00/5333.50 High Apr 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 5209.21 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 5154.43 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 5082.50 @ 07:22 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 5070.36 38.2% retracement of the Oct 27 ‘23 - Apr 1 bull leg
• SUP 2: 5018.00 Low Feb 21
• SUP 3: 4994.25 Low Feb 13
• SUP 4: 4907.57 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 ‘23 - Apr 1 bull leg

The short-term trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bearish. This week’s move lower reinforces the current condition - the contract has traded through support at the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 5070.36 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open 5018.00, the Feb 21 low. Firm resistance is seen at 5209.2, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M4) Bull Flag

• RES 4: $96.16 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $94.94 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $92.96 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $92.18 - High Apr 12
• PRICE: $89.47 @ 07:09 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: $88.28 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $85.27 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $79.70 - Low Feb 26
• SUP 4: $76.18 - Low Feb 5 and key S/T support

Brent futures are in consolidation mode and the latest pause appears to be a bull flag - a trend continuation pattern. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a clear uptrend. Furthermore, last Friday’s fresh trend high reinforces bullish conditions and short-term weakness is considered corrective. A resumption of gains would open $92.96, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is $88.28, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (K4) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $91.15 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $89.08 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $87.67 - High Apr 11
• PRICE: $84.82 @ 07:16 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: $84.01 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $81.06/76.43 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 11
• SUP 3: $71.52 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $70.02 - Low Jan 3

A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest move lower is considered corrective - for now. Recent gains reinforced current bullish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The contract has breached $84.87, the Sep 15 ‘23 high, paving the way for a climb towards the $90.00 handle further out. The next objective is $89.08, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $84.01, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $2500.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2481.5 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2431.5 High Apr 12
• PRICE: $2375.6 @ 07:23 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: $2286.3 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $2191.8 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $2088.5 - High Dec 28

The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and remains bullish plus the yellow metal is trading closer to its recent highs. The latest rally maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting positive market sentiment. The next objective is $2452.5, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at $2286.3, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Theme

• RES 4: $30.912 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $30.100 - Feb 2021 high and a key resistance
• RES 2: $30.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $29.797 - High Apr 12
• PRICE: $28.390 @ 08:08 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: $26.772 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $25.290/328 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 27
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

Despite the pullback in Silver from last Friday’s high, the trend outlook remains bullish. Fresh trend gains last week and a bullish moving average set-up, reinforce the current positive outlook. The latest rally signals scope for a climb towards the $30.00 psychological handle. Initial firm support lies at $26.772, the 20-day EMA. A move lower in the metal would be considered corrective.