MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - E-mini S&P Clears Key Resistance

Price Signal Summary – E-mini S&P Clears Key Resistance

• S&P E-minis traded higher again Thursday and the contract has cleared key resistance and the bull trigger at 4206.25, the May 1 high. Clearance of this level confirms an extension of the bull trend from Mar 13. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher yesterday and cleared resistance at 4363.00, the Apr 21 high and the bull trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Mar 20 and confirms a continuation of the medium-term uptrend.
• GBPUSD maintains a softer tone and is trading at its recent lows. Yesterday’s move lower resulted in a test of the 50-day EMA which intersects at 1.2408. This average represents a key support and a clear break would strengthen current bearish conditions and expose 1.2345, the Apr 10 low. USDJPY maintains a bullish tone and Thursday’s extension resulted in the break of a key resistance zone between 137.77-91, the May 2 and Mar 8 high respectively. The break strengthens bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started on Jan 16. AUDUSD maintains a softer tone following the pullback from 0.6818, the May 10 high, and price is trading closer to this week’s lows. A bearish continuation would expose key support at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low.
• Gold remains in a bearish cycle and is trading closer to its recent lows. The yellow metal has cleared support at $1976.2, the 50-day EMA and $1969.3, the Apr 19 low. WTI futures traded higher Wednesday. However, a short-term bearish threat remains present and initial resistance at $73.93, the Apr 28 low, is intact. A resumption of weakness and a break of $69.41, the May 15 low, would strengthen near-term bearish conditions.
• Bund futures maintain a bearish theme and the contract traded lower Thursday. Support at 134.99, the May 10 low, has been breached and this strengthens the bearish theme, paving the way for a continuation near-term. The focus is on 133.64 next, the Apr 28 low. Gilt futures traded lower Thursday, marking an acceleration of the downtrend. The contract has cleared support at 99.73, the Apr 19 low, and 99.20, the Feb 28 low and a key support level.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1054/95 High May 8 / High Apr 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1007 High May 10
• RES 1: 1.0085/0919 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 1.0763 @ 05:34 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 1.0760 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0737 61.8% retracement of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.0713 Low Mar 24
• SUP 4: 1.0653 76.4% retracement of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 bull run

Thursday’s move lower in EURUSD marks an extension of the bear leg that started on Apr 26. The 50-day EMA, at 1.0885 and a key support, has recently been breached. This signals scope for a continuation lower and attention is on 1.0737, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open 1.0713, the Mar 24 low. A firm resistance is seen at 1.0919, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Testing Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2767 61.8% of the Jun 1 ‘21 - Sep 26 ‘22 downtrend
• RES 3: 1.2680 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2547/2641 High May 16 / 11
• RES 1: 1.2498 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2396 @ 05:53 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 1.2392 Low May 18 and intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
• SUP 4: 1.2242 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - May 10 bull run

GBPUSD maintains a softer tone and is trading at its recent lows. Yesterday’s move lower resulted in a test of the 50-day EMA which intersects at 1.2408. This average represents a key support and a clear break would strengthen current bearish conditions and expose 1.2345, the Apr 10 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2547, the May 16 high where a break is required to signal a possible reversal.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8773 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8738 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8682 @ 06:03 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 0.8661 Low May 11
• SUP 2: 0.8649 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 0.8593 Low Dec 15 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8562 Low Dec 13 2022

EURGBP remains in consolidation mode and is still trading closer to its recent lows. The trend condition is bearish. The break earlier this month of 0.8719, Mar 15 low, confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that began Feb 3 and this has opened 0.8649, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, Initial firm resistance is at 0.8738 the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA intersects at 0.8773 where a clear break is required to signal a potential reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 140.47 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 16 low
• RES 3: 139.59 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Jan bear cycle
• RES 2: 139.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 138.75 High May 18
• PRICE: 138.44 @ 06:27 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 136.31 Low May 17
• SUP 2: 135.55/134.57 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 133.50 Low May 4
• SUP 4: 133.02 Low Apr 26 and a key near-term support

USDJPY maintains a bullish tone and Thursday’s extension resulted in the break of a key resistance zone between 137.77-91, the May 2 and Mar 8 high respectively. The break strengthens bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started on Jan 16. The focus is on 139.00 and 139.59, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 135.55, the 20-day EMA. Key support is far off at 133.50, the May 4 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Short-Term Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 150.32 76.4% retracement of the May 2 - 11 bear leg
• RES 1: 149.45 High May 18
• PRICE: 148.98 @ 06:45 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 148.00 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 146.46/13 50-day EMA / Low May 11
• SUP 3: 145.67 High Mar 31
• SUP 4: 145.22 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURJPY has traded higher this week as the cross extended the bounce from 146.13, the May 11 low. Support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 146.46, remains intact and marks a key support. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards 150.32 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to signal a resumption of bearish activity. Initial support lies at 148.00, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 0.6705/6818 50-day EMA / High May 10
• PRICE: 0.6634 @ 06:58 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 0.6605 Low May 18
• SUP 2: 0.6565 Low May 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6547 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

AUDUSD maintains a softer tone following the pullback from 0.6818, the May 10 high, and price is trading closer to this week’s lows. A bearish continuation would expose key support at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 2 and highlight a range breakout. On the upside, a breach of 0.6818 is required to reinstate a bullish theme and this would expose 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Short-Term Theme

• RES 4: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3640 High May 3
• RES 1: 1.3568 High May 15
• PRICE: 1.3482 @ 08:05 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 1.3404 Low May 16
• SUP 2: 1.3363/15 Low May 11 / 8
• SUP 3: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 1.3275 Low Feb 14

USDCAD remains above Tuesday’s low. The recovery from the May 8 low eased recent bearish pressure and the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.3513. A clear break of this average would strengthen the case for bulls and signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 1.3668, the Apr 28 high. Key support lies at 1.3302, the Apr 14 low. A break would reinstate the recent bearish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 138.09 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 137.55 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 137.29 High May 11
• RES 1: 135.32/136.38 20-day EMA / High May 16
• PRICE: 133.95 @ 05:59 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 133.85 Low May 18
• SUP 2: 133.64 Low Apr 28
• SUP 3: 133.10 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 132.37 Low Mar 10

Bund futures maintain a bearish theme and the contract traded lower Thursday. Support at 134.99, the May 10 low, has been breached and this strengthens the bearish theme, paving the way for a continuation near-term. The focus is on 133.64 next, the Apr 28 low. Note that key support lies at 133.10, the Apr 19 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 137.29, May 11 high. Initial resistance is 135.32, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Short-Term Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 119.190 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 119.120 High May 4 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 118.610/119.020 High May 16 / 11
• RES 1: 117.985 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117.290 @ 05:06 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 117.240 Low May 18
• SUP 2: 116.890 Low Apr 28
• SUP 3: 116.720 Low Apr 25
• SUP 4: 116.420 Low Apr19 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures traded lower again Thursday and the outlook remains bearish. The contract has breached support at 117.930, the May 10 low. The break signals scope for an extension lower and opens 116.890, the Apr 28 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 119.120, the May 4 high where a break is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme. Initial resistance is seen at 117.985, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 106.190 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 106.020/106.120 High May 11 / 4
• RES 2: 105.910 High May 16
• RES 1: 105.703 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 105.495 @ 05:03 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 105.475 Low May 2
• SUP 2: 105.350 Low Apr 28
• SUP 3: 105.235 Low Apr 25
• SUP 4: 105.165 Low Apr 19 / 24 and bear trigger

A short-term bearish cycle in Schatz futures remains in play and the contract traded lower once again yesterday. Price has breached support at 105.705, the May 10 low. The clear break of this level strengthens near-term bearish conditions and signals scope for a deeper retracement towards 105.350, the Apr 28 low. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at 106.120, the May 4 high. Initial resistance is seen at 105.703, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Key Support Cleared

• RES 4: 102.46 High May 3 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 101.98 High May 11
• RES 2: 100.99 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 99.73/100.11 Low Apr 19 / High May 18
• PRICE: 98.98 @ Close May 18
• SUP 1: 98.84 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 98.54 1.382 projection of the May 3 - 10 - 11 price swing
• SUP 3: 98.15 Low Oct 24 2022 (cont)
• SUP 4: 97.95 1.618 projection of the May 3 - 10 - 11 price swing

Gilt futures traded lower Thursday, marking an acceleration of the downtrend. The contract has cleared support at 99.73, the Apr 19 low, and 99.20, the Feb 28 low and a key support level. This confirms a resumption of the current downtrend and signals scope for weakness towards 98.54 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is 99.73 ahead of yesterday’s high of 100.11. Note that price has also traded through the late Dec 2022 lows.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Trades Through Support

• RES 4: 116.97 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 116.17 76.4% retracement of the Mar 24 - Apr 24 downleg
• RES 2: 115.89 High May 11
• RES 1: 114.95 High May 18
• PRICE: 113.86 @ Close May 18
• SUP 1: 113.70 Low May 2
• SUP 2: 112.93/89 Low Apr 24 / 61.8% of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 4: 111.05 Low Mar 8

BTP futures traded sharply lower yesterday and price has moved below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The contract has also breached support at 113.91, the May 10 low. This signals scope for an extension lower towards key support at 112.93, the Apr 24 low. A breach of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 115.89, the May 11 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Northbound

• RES 4: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 3: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4390.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4382.00 @ 06:21 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 4252.20 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4233.00 Low May 4
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher yesterday and cleared resistance at 4363.00, the Apr 21 high and the bull trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Mar 20 and confirms a continuation of the medium-term uptrend. This opens the 4400.00 handle ahead of 4409.50, the Nov 18 2021 high on the continuation chart and a key resistance. Key support has been defined at 4233.00, the May 4 low.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 4288.00 High Aug 19 2022
• RES 3: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 2: 4231.00 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 4225.50 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4217.75 @ 06:42 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 4116.32/4062.25 50-day EMA / Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 2: 4052.50 Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: 4022.75 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - May 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4006.00 Low Mar 29

S&P E-minis traded higher again Thursday and the contract has cleared key resistance and the bull trigger at 4206.25, the May 1 high. Clearance of this level confirms an extension of the bull trend from Mar 13. This opens 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and the next key short-term resistance. Key support is at 4062.25, the May 4 low. A move through this level would highlight a bearish threat.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N3) Resistance Stays Intact

• RES 4: $85.08 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.88 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $78.87 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $77.60 - High May 10
• PRICE: $76.43@ 06:55 BST May 19
• SUP 1: $73.49/71.28 - Low May 15 / 4
• SUP 2: $70.10 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

Brent futures recovered on Wednesday. However, price remains below the recent high of $77.60 (May 10) and below resistance at the 50-day EMA which intersects at $78.87. A clear break of the average is required to strengthen a bullish threat and signal scope for a stronger recovery. For now, the outlook remains bearish. A breach of $73.49, the May 15 low, would set the scene for an extension towards $71.28, the May 4 low.

WTI TECHS: (M3) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: $81.24 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.18 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.92 - High Apr 28 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $73.93 - Low Apr 28
• PRICE: $72.37 @ 07:00 BST May 19
• SUP 1: $69.41/63.64 - Low May 15 / 4
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021
• SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $57.63 - Low Apr 5 2021

WTI futures traded higher Wednesday. However, a short-term bearish threat remains present and initial resistance at $73.93, the Apr 28 low, is intact. A resumption of weakness and a break of $69.41, the May 15 low, would strengthen near-term bearish conditions. The recent print below $64.58, the Mar 20 low and a key support, is a medium-term bearish development. A clear break of it would resume the broader downtrend.

GOLD TECHS: Clears Support

• RES 4: $2100.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 2: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $2022.6/2063.0 - High May 12 / 4 and key resistance
• PRICE: $1966.4 07:24 BST May 19
• SUP 1: $1952.0 - Low May 18
• SUP 2: $1934.3 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: $1922.5 - Trendline support drawn from the Nov 3 2022
• SUP 4: $1900.0 - Round number support

Gold remains in a bearish cycle and is trading closer to its recent lows. The yellow metal has cleared support at $1976.2, the 50-day EMA and $1969.3, the Apr 19 low. A clear break of this support zone highlights a stronger bearish threat and opens $1934.3, the Mar 22 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $2063.0, the May 4 high. Initial firm resistance is at $2022.6, the May 12 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5
• RES 1: $24.492 - Apr 25 low and double top mid-point
• PRICE: $23.715 @ 08:00 BST May 19
• SUP 1: $23.327 - Low May 18
• SUP 2: $23.238 - Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: $22.761 - Low Mar 23
• SUP 4: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

Silver remains bearish and traded to a fresh short-term low yesterday. Last week’s sell-off confirmed a double top reversal pattern following the break of $24.492, Apr 25 low. The metal has also breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for a move towards $23.238, the Mar 30 low. Initial resistance is seen at $24.492, the double top mid-point. Key resistance has been defined at $26.135, the May 5 high.