MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - E-mini S&P Eyeing Alltime Highs Post-Fed

Price Signal Summary – E-mini S&P Eyeing Alltime Highs Post-Fed

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis rallied yesterday and have started today’s session on a firmer note. Attention is once again on key resistance and the all-time high of 4735.00, the Nov 22 high. The contract has remained above the 50-day EMA, at 4586.92, reinforcing the current bullish theme. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have rebounded from recent lows. A key S/T support has been defined at 4134.50, Dec 3 low. Further gains would open 4289.00, Dec 8 high where a break would reinstate the recent bullish theme and open 4311.70, a Fibonacci retracement.
• In FX, EURUSD traded lower yesterday but rebounded from session lows. The pair remains in a range and below 1.1383, Nov 30 high. A break of this resistance would signal potential for a stronger recovery towards 1.1429, the 50-day EMA. GBPUSD trend conditions are unchanged and the outlook remains bearish. Recent weakness to a fresh trend low of 1.3163 on Dec 8 confirmed a resumption of the downtrend to maintain the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. USDJPY has broken out of its recent tight range and short-term conditions have improved for bulls. The bullish engulfing candle on Dec 6 is still in play and highlights a reversal from the recent low of 112.53 on Nov 30.
• On the commodity front, Gold traded lower yesterday and attempted to clear the base of its bull channel from the Aug 9 low. The base is at $1768.9 but key support has been defined at $1753.7, yesterday’s low. WTI futures have traded lower this week but did find support yesterday. A deeper retracement would signal scope for weakness towards $65.60, the Dec 3 low.
• In the FI space, Bund futures are consolidating but the contract remains in an uptrend. Price continues to trade above the 20-day EMA, at 173.76 today. The Gilt futures dipped yesterday but remain in an uptrend - the contract recovered from session lows. Recent gains maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend and sights remain on the 128.00 objective.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Still Range Bound

• RES 4: 1.1544 Bear channel top from Jun 1 high
• RES 3: 1.1514 Low Nov 5
• RES 2: 1.1429 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1355/83 High Aug 8 / High Nov 30
• PRICE: 1.1286 @ 05:58 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 1.1222 Low Dec 15
• SUP 2: 1.1186/85 Low Nov 24 / Low Jul 1, 2020
• SUP 3: 1.1128 1.764 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1040 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘21 uptrend

EURUSD traded lower yesterday but rebounded from session lows. The pair remains in a range and below 1.1383, Nov 30 high. A break of this resistance would signal potential for a stronger recovery towards 1.1429, the 50-day EMA. The recent consolidation is a triangle formation. This is a continuation pattern and reinforces the current bear trend. The trigger for a resumption of the trend is 1.1186/85 and would open 1.1128, a Fibonacci projection.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.3698 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3607 High Nov 9
• RES 2: 1.3514 High Nov 18 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3308/70 20-day EMA / High Nov 30
• PRICE: 1.3246 @ 06:07 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 1.3163 Low Dec 08
• SUP 2: 1.3135 Low Dec 11 2020
• SUP 3: 1.3113 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.3057 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band

GBPUSD trend conditions are unchanged and the outlook remains bearish. Recent weakness to a fresh trend low of 1.3163 on Dec 8 confirmed a resumption of the downtrend to maintain the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Attention is on the Dec 11 2020 low of 1.3131 ahead of a vol-band support at 1.3113 today. Resistance to watch is at 1.3308, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal a short-term reversal.

EURGBP TECHS: Finds Support

• RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20
• RES 3: 0.8658 High Sep 29 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8624 High Oct 1
• RES 1: 0.8553/8600 High Dec 10 and 14 / High Dec 8
• PRICE: 0.8520 @ 06:15 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 0.8486 Low Dec 15
• SUP 2: 0.8446 Low Nov 29 and a key S/T support
• SUP 3: 0.8411/8381 Low Nov 26 / Low Nov 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020

EURGBP briefly probed support at 0.8489 yesterday, the Nov 22 low. The recovery keeps alive a short-term bull theme and attention turns to resistance at 0.8553, the Dec 10 / 14 high. Clearance of this level would expose the recent high at 0.8600 on Dec 8. On the downside, a clear break of the 0.8489 handle would set the scene for a deeper pullback that would expose 0.8446 initially, the Nov 29 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Breaks Out Of Its Tight Range

• RES 4: 116.09 1.764 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 3: 115.52 High Nov 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 114.81 76.4% of the Nov 24 - 30 downleg
• RES 1: 114.38 61.8% of the Nov 24 - 30 downleg
• PRICE: 114.20 @ 06:20 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 113.23 Low Dec 10 / 13
• SUP 2: 112.53 Low Nov 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 112.08 High Sep 30 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 111.32 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Nov rally

USDJPY has broken out of its recent tight range and short-term conditions have improved for bulls.The bullish engulfing candle on Dec 6 is still in play and highlights a reversal from the recent low of 112.53 on Nov 30. The 20-day EMA as a resistance has been cleared reinforcing the positive tone and this also reinforces the candle pattern. Continued gains would open the November high of 115.52. Sub 112.53 levels would reverse the trend.

EURJPY TECHS: Inverted Head And Shoulders Reversal?

• RES 4: 131.59 High Nov 5
• RES 3: 129.99 High Nov 19
• RES 2: 129.48 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 129.11 High Dec 08
• PRICE: 128.90 @ 066:28 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 127.81 Low Dec 10
• SUP 2: 127.39 Low Dec 3 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.28 1.00 proj of the Jun 1 - Sep 22 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 4: 127.04/126.65 Low Feb 15 / Low Feb 10

EURJPY traded higher yesterday. The climb highlights a potential bullish reversal pattern - an inverted head and shoulders - that would signal scope for a stronger rally near-term if confirmed. A break of 129.11, Dec 8 high would confirm the pattern and also establish a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows from early December. This would open 129.48, the 50-day EMA. Initial firm support is seen at 127.81, Dec 10 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Back At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.7341 61.8% retracement of the Oct 28 - Dec 3 downleg
• RES 3: 0.7298 Former channel base drawn from the Aug 20 low
• RES 2: 0.7249 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7169/87 20-day EMA / High Dec 9
• PRICE: 0.7163 @ 06:34 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 0.7090/7040 Low Dec 14 / Low Dec 7
• SUP 2: 0.6993/91 Low Dec 3 / Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6963 Low Jul 16 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6921 Low Jul 14 2020

AUDUSD has retraced part of last week’s gains and found support at 0.7090. The pair is again testing the 20-day EMA, at 0.7169 today. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bull cycle and signal scope for a climb towards 0.7298, the base of the bull channel drawn from the Aug 20 low. The channel was breached on Nov 19. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on 0.6991, Nov 2 2020 low and the key bear trigger.

USDCAD TECHS: Shooting Star Reversal Candle

• RES 4: 1.3024 38.2% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jun ‘21 downleg
• RES 3: 1.3018 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2949 High Aug 20 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2937 High Dec 15
• PRICE: 1.2834 @ 06:42 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 1.2721 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2608 Low Dec 8 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.2585 Low Nov 19
• SUP 4: 1.2493 Low Nov 16

USDCAD traded higher yesterday and breached 1.2854, Dec 3 high and 1.2896, Sep 20 high. Key resistance however at 1.2949, Aug 20 high remains intact. The pair also failed to hold onto yesterday’s gains and closed at the session low. In pattern terms, yesterday’s activity is a shooting star reversal candle and represents a concern for bulls. A continuation lower would expose the 20-day EMA at 1.2721. A break of 1.2949 would resume bullish activity.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H2) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 176.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 175.57 1.618 proj of the Nov 11 - 22 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 175.29 1.50 proj of the Nov 11 - 22 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 175.02 High Dec 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 174.31 @ 05:10 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 173.76/40 20-day EMA / Low Dec 8
• SUP 2: 172.70 Low Nov 26
• SUP 3: 171.77 Low Nov 24 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 170.72 Low Nov 4

Bund futures are consolidating but the contract remains in an uptrend. Price continues to trade above the 20-day EMA, at 173.76 today. A break of this average is required to strengthen a bearish threat and would signal scope for a deeper pullback. For bulls, clearance of 175.02, the Dec 8 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 175.29, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average conditions are in a bull mode.

BOBL TECHS: (H2) Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 135.126 1.382 pro of the Nov 11 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 134.978 1.236 pro of the Nov 11 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 2: 134.740 1.00 pro of the Nov 11 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 134.530 High Nov 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 134.050 @ 05:08 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 133.710 Low Dec 8
• SUP 2: 133.610 Low Nov 16
• SUP 3: 133.410 Low Nov 11 and a key support
• SUP 4: 133.200 Low Nov 3

Bobl futures are unchanged and continue to consolidate. The contract traded sharply lower Dec 8 but also managed to recover from that day's low. Price did probe support at 133.730, Nov 23 low. A clear breach of this level would strengthen a bearish case and open 133.410, Nov 11 low. A recovery would instead refocus attention on 134.530, Nov 30 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of bullish activity.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H2) Holding Above Support

• RES 4: 112.375 1.382 proj of the Nov 16 - 26 - Dec 1 price swing
• RES 3: 112.350 1.236 proj of the Nov 16 - 26 - Dec 1 price swing
• RES 2: 112.305 High Nov 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 112.235 High Dec 2 / 3
• PRICE: 112.120 @ 05:23 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 112.090 Low Dec 8
• SUP 2: 112.070 1.000 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 1 - Dec 3 price swing
• SUP 3: 112.031 1.236 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 1 - Dec 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 112.007 1.382 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 1 - Dec 3 price swing

Schatz futures faced strong selling pressure on Dec 8 and cleared near term support levels. This move lower strengthened a bearish threat and confirmed an extension of the pullback from 112.305, Nov 26 high. A resumption of weakness would open 112.070 and 112.031, Fibonacci retracements. The recovery since Dec 8 however remains an encouraging sign for bulls. A break of 112.235, the Dec 2 / 3 high would ease any bearish threat.

GILT TECHS: (H2) Price Conditions Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 129.00 76.4% retracement of the Aug - Oct downleg (cont)
• RES 3: 128.18 High Sep 10 / 14 (cont)
• RES 2: 127.94/128.00 61.8% of Aug - Oct move (cont) / High Aug 31
• RES 1: 127.67 High Dec 8
• PRICE: 127.30 @ Close Dec 15
• SUP 1: 126.67/32 Low Dec 10 / Low Dec 2
• SUP 2: 125.44 Low Nov 26 and gap high
• SUP 3: 124.94 High Nov 25 and gap low
• SUP 4: 124.48 Low Nov 25

Gilt futures dipped yesterday but remain in an uptrend - the contract recovered from session lows. Recent gains maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend and sights remain on the 128.00 objective. Short-term dips would be considered corrective with initial support seen at 126.67, the Dec 10 low. Also watch support at 125.44, the Nov 26 low and a gap high on the daily chart.

BTP TECHS: (H2) Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 152.71 1.00 proj of the Nov 1 - 22 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 151.45 0.764 proj of the Nov 1 - 22 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 151.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 150.66 High Dec 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 150.12 @ Close Dec 15
• SUP 1: 148.51/25 Low Dec 8 / Low Dec 1
• SUP 2: 147.36 Low Nov 24 and key support
• SUP 3: 146.55 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - 22 rally
• SUP 4: 145.29 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger

BTP futures are holding onto the bulk of recent gains. Attention is on resistance at 150.64, the Nov 22 high. A clear break of this hurdle (probed last week) would reinstate a bullish theme and open the 151.00 handle. On the downside, support lies at 148.51, the Dec 8 low. Clearance of this level would threaten the bullish theme and instead expose support at 148.25, the Dec 1 low and a firmer support at 147.36, Nov 24 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Rebounds From Recent Lows

• RES 4: 4461.00 1.50 proj of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - Oct 6 price swing
• RES 3: 4420.80 1.382 proj of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - Oct 6 price swing
• RES 2: 4409.50 High Nov 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4289.00/4311.70 High Dec 8 / 76.4% of Nov 18 - 30 downleg
• PRICE: 4230.50 @ 05:50 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 4134.50 Low Dec 14
• SUP 2: 4053.50/3995.00 Low Dec 3 / Low Nov 30
• SUP 3: 3949.50 Low Oct 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3882.00 Low Jul 19

EUROSTOXX 50 futures have rebounded from recent lows. A key S/T support has been defined at 4134.50, Dec 3 low. Further gains would open 4289.00, Dec 8 high where a break would reinstate the recent bullish theme and open 4311.70, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, weakness through 4134.50 would signal scope for a deeper pullback and expose 4053.50, the Dec 3 low. Major support and the bear trigger is at 3995.00, the Nov 30 low.

E-MINI S&P (H2): Approaching The All-Time High

• RES 4: 4854.19 0.764 proj of the Oct 1 - Nov 22 - Dec 3 price swing
• RES 1: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4783.78 0.618 proj of the Oct 1 - Nov 22 - Dec 3 price swing
• RES 1: 4735.00 High Nov 22 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4719.00 @ 06:58 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 4586.92 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4485.75 Low Dec 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4493.88 61.8% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 22 rally
• SUP 4: 4436.97 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 22 rally

S&P E-minis rallied yesterday and have started today’s session on a firmer note. Attention is once again on key resistance and the all-time high of 4735.00, the Nov 22 high. The contract has remained above the 50-day EMA, at 4586.92, reinforcing the current bullish theme. A break of 4735.00 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open the 4800.00 handle. A break of the 50-day EMA is required to alter the picture.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G2) Watching The 50-day EMA

• RES 4: $81.88 - High Nov 24
• RES 3: $80.42 - High Nov 26
• RES 2: $76.68/70 -50-day EMA / High Dec 9
• RES 1: $75.16High Dec 14
• PRICE: $74.66 @ 06:54 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: $72.50 - Low Dec 15
• SUP 2: $69.24/65.72 - Low Dec 3 / Low Dec 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $62.95 - Low Aug 23 and a key support
• SUP 4: $62.54 - Low May 21

Brent futures have retraced part of the rally between Dec 2 - 9. A deeper retracement would signal scope for a test of $69.24, Dec 3 low. The major support is at the Dec 2 low of $65.72. On the upside, clearance of $76.70, Dec 9 high and $76.68, the 50-day EMA would reinstate a bullish focus and open $80.42, the Nov 26 low. Note that MA studies are in a bear mode. This suggests the broader trend direction is down and that gains are corrective.

WTI TECHS: (F2) Finds Support At Yesterday’s Low

• RES 4: $80.68 - High Nov 16
• RES 3: $78.65 - High Nov 26
• RES 2: $73.34/74.12 - High Dec 9 / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $72.24 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $71.69 @ 06:59 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: $69.39 - Low Dec 15
• SUP 2: $65.60 - Low Dec 3
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $60.77 - Low Aug 23 and a key support

WTI futures have traded lower this week but did find support yesterday. A deeper retracement would signal scope for weakness towards $65.60, the Dec 3 low. The major support is at the Dec 2 low of $62.43. On the upside, clearance of $73.34, Dec 9 high and $74.12, the 50-day EMA would reinstate a bullish focus and open $78.65, the Nov 26 low. Moving average studies are pointing south. This suggests short-term gains are corrective.

GOLD TECHS: Fails To Remain Below The Bull Channel Base

• RES 4: $1903.8 - High Jun 8
• RES 3: $1877.2/93.0 High Nov 16 / Bull channel top
• RES 2: $1815.6/49.1 - High Nov 26 / High Nov 22
• RES 1: $1794.5 High Dec 1
• PRICE: $1785.3 @ 07:18 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: $1768.9 - Bull channel base drawn from the Aug 9 low
• SUP 2: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15
• SUP 3: $1746.0 - Oct 6 low
• SUP 4: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29

Gold traded lower yesterday and attempted to clear the base of its bull channel from the Aug 9 low. The base is at $1768.9 but key support has been defined at $1753.7, yesterday’s low. The recovery from $1753.7 has taken the yellow metal back into its recent range. Initial resistance is $1794.5, Dec 1 high where a break would warn of a developing base and provide a bullish signal. Weakness below yesterday’s low would resume bearish pressure.

SILVER TECHS: Eyeing Key Support

• RES 4: $24.323 - High Nov 23
• RES 3: $23.772 - High Nov 24
• RES 2: $23.030 - High Dec 1
• RES 1: $22.420/609 High Dec 13 / High Dec 6
• PRICE: $21.151 @ 07:22 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: $21.423 - Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 2: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 rally
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.851 - Low Jul 21 2020

Silver remains vulnerable following yesterday’s sell-off and despite the recovery from session lows. Attention is on $21.423, the Sep 29 low. This level represents the next key support where a break would strengthen bearish conditions and confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend that started in Feb this year. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $22.420, Dec 13 high. A break would alter the short-term picture.