MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - E-mini S&P Nears Key Pivot Support

Price Signal Summary – E-mini S&P nears key pivot support

• The S&P E-Minis contract remains vulnerable following recent weakness. The move lower is allowing an overbought reading in momentum studies to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 4085.13 - a key pivot support. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a bearish corrective cycle. The move lower this week, marks an extension of the pullback from 3822.00, Aug 17 high. The 20-day EMA has been breached.
• EURUSD bears have paused for breath and the pair remains above Tuesday’s low. The outlook is bearish following this week’s breach of 0.9952, Jul 14 low. This confirmed an extension lower inside the bear channel. EURGBP remains below last week’s highs. The high print of 0.8512 on Aug 19, is a bullish development and threatens the recent bearish outlook. The move signals scope for an extension higher. A bearish threat in AUDUSD remains present following the recent retracement from 0.7137, the Aug 11 high. This week’s recovery is considered corrective.
• Gold remains vulnerable despite the recovery from Tuesday’s low. Recent gains saw price trade above trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high. The break highlighted a potential reversal of the 5-month downtrend. WTI futures traded continue to climb. This week’s gains have improved the short-term outlook for bulls. Resistance at $94.17, Aug 11 high and the 50-day EMA, at $94.34 have been cleared.
• Bund futures remain bearish and the contract is trading at its recent lows. Recent weakness has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA. This marked a key support area and the clear break has strengthened bearish conditions. Gilt futures remain vulnerable and this week’s bearish impulsive run continues. The sharp move lower reinforces a bearish theme and attention is on key support at 109.89, the Jun 16 low and a key medium-term bear trigger.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bears Pause For Breath

• RES 4: 1.0327 High Aug 12
• RES 3: 1.0255 Channel top drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 2: 1.0097/0147 Low Jul 27 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0047 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 0.9999 @ 06:14 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 2: 0.9800 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.9785 2.00 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9734 Channel base drawn from the Feb 10 high

EURUSD bears have paused for breath and the pair remains above Tuesday’s low. The outlook is bearish following this week’s breach of 0.9952, Jul 14 low. This confirmed an extension lower inside the bear channel and more importantly a resumption of the primary downtrend. The focus is on 0.9883 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, scope is seen for a move towards the channel base at 0.9717. Initial resistance is at 1.0047.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 1.2217 High Aug 12
• RES 3: 1.2113 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.1996/2004/1.2016 20-day EMA / Low Aug 5
• RES 1: 1.1878/1938 High Aug 23 / 19
• PRICE: 1.1839 @ 06:19 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 1.1718 Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1640 Low Mar 25 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1503 Low Mar 24 2020

GBPUSD is consolidating but is trading closer to recent lows and remains vulnerable. Recent weakness that resulted in the break of support at 1.1760, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger, reinforces bearish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. This paves the way for a move towards 1.1673, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, firm short-term resistance is seen at 1.2004, the Aug 5 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Still Trading Below Its Recent High

• RES 4: 0.8627 High Jul 4
• RES 3: 0.8585 High Jul 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8525 High Jul 25
• RES 1: 0.8465/8512 50-day EMA / High Aug 19
• PRICE: 0.8445 @ 06:26 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 0.8408 Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 0.8388/40 Low Aug 17 / 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 4: 0.8277 2.0% 10-dma envelope and low Apr 14

EURGBP remains below last week’s highs. The high print of 0.8512 on Aug 19, is a bullish development and threatens the recent bearish outlook. The move signals scope for an extension higher. A resumption of gains would open 0.8525 and potentially 0.8585 further out, the Jul 25 and 21 highs respectively. Initial key support to watch is at 0.8388, the Aug 17 low. A break would reinstate a bearish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Theme Still In Play

• RES 4: 139.39 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• RES 3: 138.88 High Jul 21
• RES 2: 137.96 High Jul 22
• RES 1: 137.71 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 136.69 @ 06:33 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 135.72 Low Aug 19
• SUP 2: 135.43/134.56 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 133.91 Low Aug 17
• SUP 4: 132.56 Low Aug 15

USDJPY is consolidating. Short-term conditions remain bullish despite Tuesday’s pullback. The pair last week traded above 135.58, Aug 8 high and this strengthened a short-term bullish condition. Furthermore, 137.27, 76.4% of the Jul 14 - Aug 2 downleg, has been cleared reinforcing current conditions. This signals scope for a continuation higher towards 137.96, the Jul 22 high. Initial firm support is seen at the 50-day EMA, at 134.56.

EURJPY TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Still Bearish

• RES 4: 140.07 High Jul 25
• RES 3: 139.44 Trendline resistance drawn from the Jun 28 high
• RES 2: 138.40 High Aug 10
• RES 1: 137.18/90 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 136.61 @ 06:55 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 134.95 Low Aug 16
• SUP 2: 133.40 Low Aug 2 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 132.66 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 131.99 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Jun 28 bull leg

The EURJPY short-term outlook remains bearish. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition highlighting a downtrend and the 50-day EMA, at 137.90, remains intact. This average is a key resistance. A strong resumption of weakness would open the 133.40 bear trigger. On the upside, clearance of resistance at the 50-day EMA would instead alter the picture and open the 139.44 trendline resistance drawn from the Jun 28 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.7246 High Jun 7
• RES 3: 0.7185 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 0.7137 High Aug 11
• RES 1: 0.6964/7040 50-day EMA / High Aug 16
• PRICE: 0.6954 @ 07:10 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 0.6856 Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 0.6789 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 11 upleg
• SUP 3: 0.6719 Low Jul 15
• SUP 4: 0.6682 14 and the bear trigger

A bearish threat in AUDUSD remains present following the recent retracement from 0.7137, the Aug 11 high. This week’s recovery is considered corrective. The move lower last week resulted in a print below 0.6870, Aug 5 low and clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper pullback. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.7040, the Aug 16 high where a break is required to ease the current bearish pressure.

USDCAD TECHS: Remains Below Tuesday’s High

• RES 4: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3135 High Jul 15
• RES 2: 1.3107 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 11 downleg
• RES 1: 1.2976/3063 High Aug 25 / 23
• PRICE: 1.2921 @ 08:03 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 1.2911/2886 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.2828/2762 Low Aug 17 / 200-dma
• SUP 3: 1.2728 Low Aug 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.2685 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 upleg

USDCAD is trading lower today as the pair extends the pullback from Tuesday’s high of 1.3063. Short-term trend conditions appear bullish following the recent strong recovery from 1.2728, the Aug 17 low. A resumption of gains and a break of 1.3063 would open 1.3107 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that MA studies are in a bull mode condition, highlighting an uptrend. Initial firm support is at 1.2886, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Trading At Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 157.74 High Aug 10
• RES 3: 156.88 High Aug 5
• RES 2: 153.88/155.96 20-day EMA / High Aug 17
• RES 1: 152.40/53.46 High Aug 23 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 150.26 @ 05:19 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 150.00 Round number support
• SUP 2: 149.69 Low Jul 21 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 148.24 Low Jul 1
• SUP 4: 147.94 61.8% of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 bull leg

Bund futures remain bearish and the contract is trading at its recent lows. Recent weakness has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA. This marked a key support area and the clear break has strengthened bearish conditions, signalling scope for a continuation lower. The focus is on the 150.00 handle next. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 153.46, the 50-day EMA, a break would ease the bearish threat.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Continues To Weaken

• RES 4: 127.580 High Aug 10
• RES 3: 127.290 High Aug 15
• RES 2: 126.010/126.930 20-day EMA / High Aug 17
• RES 1: 125.100/890 High Aug 23 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 124.450 @ 05:25 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 124.260 Low Aug 24
• SUP 2: 124.030 Low Jul 21 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 123.309 61.8% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 rally
• SUP 4: 122.180 Low Jun 29

Bobl futures remain bearish and the contract continued its move lower yesterday. The 50-day EMA has recently been breached and the deeper pullback has opened 124.030, the Jul 21 low and a reversal trigger. Note that the contract has also breached a trendline support drawn from the Jun 16 low, reinforcing bearish conditions. Initial firm resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA at 125.890.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 110.380 High Aug 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 110.100 HIgh Aug 3
• RES 2: 109.830/915 High Aug 17 / 16
• RES 1: 109.355/588 High Aug 23 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 109.165 @ 05:32 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 109.175 Low Aug 22
• SUP 2: 109.042 50.0% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg
• SUP 3: 108.950 Low Jul 21 and a key support
• SUP 4: 108.727 61.8% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg

Schatz futures remain vulnerable and continue the extension lower from the early August highs.The 50-day EMA has been cleared, reinforcing bearish conditions. The focus is on 109.042, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA, at 109.570. A break of this level is required to ease the current bearish pressure. Initial resistance is at 109.355, Tuesday’s high.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Impulsive Sell-Off Extends

• RES 4: 117.15 High Aug 15 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 115.63 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 114.53/114.88 High Aug 18 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 112.86/113.57 High Aug 23 / 22
• PRICE: 111.82 @ Close Aug 23
• SUP 1: 110.34 Low Aug 24
• SUP 2: 109.89 Low Jun 16 and major support
• SUP 3: 109.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 108.66 1.00 proj of May 12 - Jun 16 - Aug 2 price swing (cont)

Gilt futures remain vulnerable and this week’s bearish impulsive run continues. The sharp move lower reinforces a bearish theme and attention is on key support at 109.89, the Jun 16 low and a key medium-term bear trigger. Recent weakness has also resulted in the break of trendline support drawn from the Jun 16 low. Clearance of 109.89 would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Initial resistance is at 112.86, Tuesday’s high.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Bear Trend Extends

• RES 4: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.36 High Aug 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 125.09/127.15 50-day EMA / High Aug 17
• RES 1: 124.02 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 121.47 @ Close Aug 24
• SUP 1: 120.77 Low Aug 24
• SUP 2: 119.57 Low Jul 21 and a key support
• SUP 3: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 4: 117.88 Low Jun 17

BTP futures traded lower again yesterday and bearish conditions remain intact. This week’s move lower has resulted in a break below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Furthermore, the move through 124.07 on Aug 19, confirmed a break of trendline support drawn from the Jun 14 low. The clear breach has opened 119.57, the Jul 21 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 125.09, the 50-day EMA.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U2) Heading South

• RES 4: 122-02 High Aug 2 and key resistance
• RES 3: 120-29 High Aug 4
• RES 2: 119-31/120-22 High Aug 15 / 10
• RES 1: 118-14/119-00 High Aug 22 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117-10 @ 16:19 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 117-07 61.8% retracement of the Jun 14 - Aug 2 bull cycle
• SUP 2: 117-04 Low Aug 24
• SUP 3: 116-26+ Low Jun 29
• SUP 4: 116-11 Low Jun 28

Treasuries maintain a bearish tone following recent weakness that resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMA levels. 118-05, 50.0% of the Jun 14 - Aug 2 bull cycle, has also been cleared and this signals scope for an extension towards 117-14+ next, the Jul 21 low and Tuesday’s low print. Support at 117-07, the 61.8% retracement, has been tested, but a clear break below is required before 116-26+ support can be considered.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 3855.00 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 3822/40.00 High Aug 17 / High Jun 6 and key resistance zone
• RES 2: 3782.00 High Aug 18
• RES 1: 3726.00 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 3674.00 @ 05:40 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 3621.00 Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 3582.50 50.0% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 17 rally
• SUP 3: 3526.00 61.8% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 17 rally
• SUP 4: 3467.00 Low Jul 18 / 19

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a bearish corrective cycle. The move lower this week, marks an extension of the pullback from 3822.00, Aug 17 high. The 20-day EMA has been breached. The clear break signalled scope for an extension lower, exposing the 50-day EMA at 3651.30,. This average has been pierced, reinforcing bearish conditions. Key resistance is at 3822.00 ahead of 3840.00. The latter is the Jun 6 high.

E-MINI S&P (U2): All Eyes On The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4419.15 2.236 proj of the Jun 17 - 28 - Jul 14 price swing
• RES 3: 4345.75 2.00 proj of the Jun 17 - 28 - Jul 14 price swing
• RES 2: 4288.00/4327.50 High Aug 19 /16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4221.50 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 4158.50 @ 06:49 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 4085.13 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4000.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 3994.50 Low Jul 28
• SUP 4: 3913.25 Low Jul 26 and a key support

The S&P E-Minis contract remains vulnerable following recent weakness. The move lower is allowing an overbought reading in momentum studies to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 4085.13 - a key pivot support. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 4327.50, the Aug 16 high. Initial resistance is at 4221.50, Monday’s high. A break would ease the current bearish threat.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V2) Clears Resistance

• RES 4: $110.72 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $108.55 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 bear leg
• RES 2: $106.50 - High Jul 29 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $102.41 - High Aug 2 / 3
• PRICE: $101.77 @ 06:56 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: $96.53/91.22 - Low Aug 23 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $90.00 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $88.31 - Low Mar 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $85.88 - Low Feb 25

Brent futures traded higher again Wednesday. This week’s climb has strengthened short-term conditions for bulls. Price has breached resistance at $100.38, the Aug 12 high and $100.25, the 50-day EMA. The break signals a stronger short-term reversal and opens $102.41, the Aug 2 / 3 high ahead of $106.50, the Jul 29 high. On the downside, key support is unchanged at $91.22, Jul 14 low. A break would confirm a resumption of bearish activity.

WTI TECHS: (V2) Trades Through Key Resistance

• RES 4: $108.07 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $105.00 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $99.75 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 1: $96.68 - High Aug 1
• PRICE: $95.23 @ 07:09 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: $90.42/85.37 - Low Aug 23 / 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $84.10/00 - Low Mar 15 / Round number support
• SUP 3: $81.88 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $80.00 - Round number support

WTI futures traded continue to climb. This week’s gains have improved the short-term outlook for bulls. Resistance at $94.17, Aug 11 high and the 50-day EMA, at $94.34 have been cleared, highlighting a short-term reversal and this signals scope for a climb towards $99.75, the Jul 29 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at $85.37, Aug 16 low. This level is the bear trigger.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: $1857.6 - High Jun 16
• RES 3: $1829.8 - 38.2% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jul 21 bear leg
• RES 2: $1777.2/1807.9 - 50-day EMA / High Aug 10 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $1762.2 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1757.3 @ 07:13 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: $1727.8 - Low Aug 22
• SUP 2: $1711.7 - Low Jul 27
• SUP 3: $1681.0 - Low Jul 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021

Gold remains vulnerable despite the recovery from Tuesday’s low. Recent gains saw price trade above trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high. The break highlighted a potential reversal of the 5-month downtrend. However, the failure to follow through and the breach last week of support at $1754.4 Aug 3 low, means the trendline remains intact. Sights are on $1711.7 next, the Jul 27 low. Key resistance is $1807.9.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Theme Despite The Latest Bounce

• RES 4: $21.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 2: $20.876 - High Aug 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $19.687/20.121- 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: $19.357 @ 08:08 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: $18.723 - Low Aug 22
• SUP 2: $18.146/18.000 - Low Jul 14 / Round number support
• SUP 3: $17.312 - 3.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020

Silver outlook remains bearish despite the latest bounce. The move lower last week resulted in a break of $19.551, Aug 5 low. The breach undermines the recent bullish theme and has exposed the key support and bear trigger at $18.146. A move below this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $20.876, the Aug 15 high where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.