MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - E-mini S&P Remains in Bull Mode

Price Signal Summary – E-mini S&P Remains in Bull Mode

• The E-mini S&P contract remains in a bull mode condition and is trading just below last week’s high of 4609.25 (Jul 19). The contract has recently tested the top of the bull channel drawn off the March 13 low - the top intersects at 4627.50 today. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in consolidation mode but continue to trade closer to their recent highs and price is holding above the 50-day EMA at 4353.30. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4447.00, the Jul 3 high.
• GBPUSD found support yesterday, however, the short-term outlook remains bearish. Price has pierced 1.2801 - the 61.8% retracement of the Jun 29 - Jul 14 upleg. A clear break would expose the 50-day EMA at 1.2726. USDJPY is consolidating and holding on to its recent gains. The pair has recently traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, strengthening a short-term bullish condition. AUDUSD remains in a bearish cycle but has managed to find some support for now. Price has recently pierced the 50-day EMA - at 0.6722 today. An extension lower would pave the way for a move towards 0.6651, the Jul 11 low.
• Gold conditions remain bullish for now and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s print above $1985.3, the May 24 high, reinforces a bull theme. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards $1998.1, a Fibonacci retracement point. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s climb has confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The break above $77.15, the Jul 13 high signals scope for a climb towards the next key resistance at $81.44, the high on Apr 12 / 13.
• Bund futures are unchanged and remain below last week’s peak. For now, the recent retracement appears to be a correction and short-term trend signals highlight a bull cycle. The outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Last week’s print above resistance at 97.00, the Jun 23 high, and clearance of the 50-dma on the continuation chart, reinforces current positive conditions.

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.1355 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 22 - Jul 7 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1313 High Feb 24 2022
• RES 2: 1.1276 High Jul 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1147/1229 High Jul 24 / 20
• PRICE: 1.1047 @ 05:53 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 1.1021 Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: 1.1012/04 High Jun 22 / Low Jul 12
• SUP 3: 1.0964 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0941 Trendline support drawn from the May 31 low

EURUSD traded lower Tuesday and a bear cycle remains intact The recent pullback appears to be a correction, however, price has cleared 1.1060, the 20-day EMA. The break signals scope for a deeper short-term correction, towards the 50-day EMA at 1.0967. On the upside, the key resistance and bull trigger is unchanged at 1.1276, the Jul 18 high. First resistance is at 1.1147, Monday’s high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.3237 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 8 low
• RES 3: 1.3142 High Jul 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 1: 1.2965 High Jul 20
• PRICE: 1.2888 @ 06:00 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 1.2801/2798 61.8% of the Jun 29 - Jul 14 Upleg / Low Jul 24
• SUP 2: 1.2751 Low Jul 10
• SUP 3: 1.2726 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2693 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 8 low

GBPUSD found support yesterday, however, the short-term outlook remains bearish. Price has pierced 1.2801 - the 61.8% retracement of the Jun 29 - Jul 14 upleg. A clear break would expose the 50-day EMA at 1.2726. The base of the bull channel, drawn from the Mar 8 low, crosses at 1.2693 today and represents a key trend support point. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2965, the Jul 20 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Deeper Retracement

• RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 2: 0.8696/8701 100-dma / High Jul 19
• RES 1: 0.8637 High Jul 25
• PRICE: 0.8575 @ 07:17 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 0.8564 Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: 0.8520 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8504 Low Jul 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 29 2022

EURGBP traded sharply lower Tuesday. This threatens the recent bull theme and note that the cross has breached both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, signalling a stronger reversal. The move lower opens 0.8564 initially, Jul 17 low, ahead of 0.8504, the Jul 11 low and key support. Initial firm resistance is at yesterday’s high of 0.8637. Clearance of the 100-dma of 0.8696 and congestion at 0.8719, the May 23 high, would reinstate a bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Theme

• RES 4: 144.20 High Jul 7
• RES 3: 143.22 76.4% retracement of the Jun 30 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 2: 142.78 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 16 low
• RES 1: 142.08 61.8% retracement of the Jun 30 - Jul 14 downleg
• PRICE: 141.07 @ 06:32 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 139.75 Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 138.77 Low Jul 19
• SUP 3: 137.25 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17

USDJPY is consolidating and holding on to its recent gains. The pair has recently traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, strengthening a short-term bullish condition. Sights are on 142.08, 61.8% of the early July downleg. A break would open 143.22, the 76.4% retracement point. On the downside, key support has been defined at 137.25, the Jul 14 low. Initial support to watch lies at 139.75, the Jul 21 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 158.90 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 158.72 2.00 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 158.05 High Jul 21
• PRICE: 155.92 @ 06:48 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 155.59 Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 154.96 Trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low
• SUP 3: 153.72/49 50-day EMA / Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: 151.61 High May 2

EURJPY trend conditions remain bullish despite this week’s move lower. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position and the price sequence of higher highs and and higher lows remains intact. Attention is on the bull trigger at 158.00, Jun 28 high. It has been pierced, a clear break would confirm a resumption of the long-term uptrend and open 158.72, a Fibonacci projection. Key trendline support, drawn from the Mar 24 low, is at 154.96.

AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 0.6993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - May 31 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6936 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6847 High Jul 20
• PRICE: 0.6774 @ 07:52 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 0.6722/15 50-day EMA / Low Jul 24
• SUP 2: 0.6651 Low Jul 11
• SUP 3: 0.6619 Low Jul 7
• SUP 4: 0.6596 Low Jun 29 and key support

AUDUSD remains in a bearish cycle but has managed to find some support for now. Price has recently pierced the 50-day EMA - at 0.6722 today. An extension lower would pave the way for a move towards 0.6651, the Jul 11 low. Further out, the next key support level lies at 0.6596, the Jun 29 low. On the upside, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention initially on 0.6847, the Jul 20 high. The key bull trigger is at 0.6900, the Jun 26 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Trigger Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3427 High Jun 7
• RES 3: 1.3387 High Jul 7 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3294 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3243 High Jul 18
• PRICE: 1.3179 @ 07:56 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.3032 1.764 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2022 bull leg

USDCAD is in consolidation mode and continues to trade above key support at 1.3093, the Jul 14 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A break of 1.3093 would confirm a resumption of the medium-term bear cycle. This would open 1.3084 and 1.3032, Fibonacci projection points. On the upside, clearance of the 50-day EMA, at 1.3294, is required to highlight a possible short-term reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 135.87 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 135.00 High Jun 27 and key resistance
• RES 2: 134.88 High Jul 19
• RES 1: 134.01 High Jul 24
• PRICE: 133.56 @ 05:21 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 132.60 Low Jul 17 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 132.23 61.8% retracement of the Jul 10 - 19 rally
• SUP 3: 131.92 Low Jul 13
• SUP 4: 131.61 76.4% retracement of the Jul 10 - 19 rally

Bund futures are unchanged and remain below last week’s peak. For now, the recent retracement appears to be a correction and short-term trend signals highlight a bull cycle. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 135.00, the Jun 27 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend that started Jul 10. Initial support to watch lies at 132.60, the Jul 17 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 116.990 High Jun 12 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 116.860 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 116.600 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.200/291 High Jul 24 / 50-dma (cont)
• PRICE: 115.970 @ 05:30 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 115.420 Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: 115.230 Low Jul 13
• SUP 3: 115.034 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - 19 rally
• SUP 4: 114.730 Low Jul 12

Bobl futures remain in a bull cycle and the pullback from last week’s high is considered corrective. Attention is on key short-term resistance that has been defined at 116.600, the Jul 19 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 116.990, the Jun 12 high. On the downside, a move through 115.420, the Jul 17 low would instead signal scope for a deeper retracement.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 105.369 100-dma (cont)
• RES 3: 105.223 50% retracement June-July downleg
• RES 2: 105.185 High Jul 19 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 105.090 High Jul 24
• PRICE: 105.005 @ 05:50 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 104.805 Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.335 Low Mar 9 (cont) and a major support

Schatz futures remain in a short-term uptrend despite the recent pullback from 105.185, the Jul 19 high. A stronger resumption of gains and a breach of 105.185 would highlight a continuation of the bull cycle and open 105.223 and 105.376, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial support to watch is 104.805, the Jul 17 low. A break would expose key support and the bear trigger at 104.570, the Jul 6 low.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 98.80 High May 22
• RES 3: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 97.91 38.2% retracement of the Mar-Jul downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 97.84 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 96.49 @ Close Jul 25
• SUP 1: 96.11 Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 95.20 Low Jul 18
• SUP 3: 94.58 Low Jul 17 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 94.20 Low Jul 13

The outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Last week’s print above resistance at 97.00, the Jun 23 high, and clearance of the 50-dma on the continuation chart, reinforces current positive conditions. A resumption of the uptrend would signal scope for gains towards 99.71, 50.0% of the Mar-Jul downleg (cont). Initial firm support to watch lies at 96.11, the Jul 21 low.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 118.56 High Jan 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 117.60 High Jun 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.86/117.48 High Jul 24 / 19
• PRICE: 116.18 @ Close Jul 25
• SUP 1: 115.62/09 20-day EMA / Low Jul 14 and a key S/T support
• SUP 2: 114.26 Low Jul 13
• SUP 3: 112.95 Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 112.48 Low May 29

BTP futures traded remains below last week’s high of 117.48, the Jul 19 high. Short-term bullish conditions are intact and attention is on the key near-term hurdle at 117.60, the Jun 26 high. A resumption of gains and a break of this resistance would strengthen a bullish theme and open 118.18, the Feb 2 high (cont). Initial firm support to watch lies at 115.09, the Jul 14 low. A break would signal scope for a deeper pullback.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 4501.60 1.618 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4472.24 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4447.00 High Jul 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4435.00 High Jul 13 / 14
• PRICE: 4395.00 @ 06:28 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 4353.30/4220.00 50-day EMA / Low Jul 7 and key support
• SUP 2: 4208.50 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 3 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4152.20 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 3 bull cycle

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in consolidation mode but continue to trade closer to their recent highs and price is holding above the 50-day EMA at 4353.30. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4447.00, the Jul 3 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4220.00, the Jul 7 low. Initial support is at the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 4739.50 High Jan 12 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 4709.57 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 4631.00 High Mar 29 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4609.25/4627.50 High Jul 20 / Bull channel top
• PRICE: 4596.00 @ 07:02 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 4514.78 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4470.00 Low Jul 12
• SUP 3: 4412.16 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4380.90 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 13 low

The E-mini S&P contract remains in a bull mode condition and is trading just below last week’s high of 4609.25 (Jul 19). The contract has recently tested the top of the bull channel drawn off the March 13 low - the top intersects at 4627.50 today. A clear channel breakout would strengthen bullish conditions and open 4631.00, the Mar 29 2022 high. A corrective pullback would initially target the 20-day EMA at 4514.78 and a key short-term support.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U3) Heading North

• RES 4: $86.76 - High Jan 23
• RES 3: $86.20 - High Jan 27
• RES 2: $85.47 - High Apr 12 / 13 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $83.87 - High Jul 25
• PRICE: $83.09 @ 06:44 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: $79.15/78.19 - 20-day EMA / Low Jul 18 and key support
• SUP 2: $75.03/71.43 - Low May 31
• SUP 3: $71.00 - Low Jul 6 / May 4
• SUP 4: $69.95 - Low Mar 20 and a key support

Brent futures remain in an uptrend and this week’s gains have confirmed a resumption of the trend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a positive cycle. The contract has cleared all major short-term resistance points and this signals scope for a climb towards $85.47, the Apr 12 high. Initial key short-term support has been defined at $78.19, the Jul 18 low.

WTI TECHS: (U3) Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: $83.59 - High Jul 11 2022
• RES 3: $81.75 - High Jan 23
• RES 2: $81.44 - High Apr 12 and key resistance
• RES 1: $79.90 - High Jul 25
• PRICE: $79.24 @ 07:14 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: $74.78/73.78 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: $69.82/66.98 - Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 12 and key support
• SUP 3: $64.22 - Low May 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s climb has confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The break above $77.15, the Jul 13 high signals scope for a climb towards the next key resistance at $81.44, the high on Apr 12 / 13. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. Key short-term support has been defined at $73.78, the Jul 17 low.

GOLD TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: $2022.9 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 3: $2002.7 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: $1998.1 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 1: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1968.6 @ 07:18 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: $1950.4 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1924.5 - Low Jul 11
• SUP 3: $1902.8/1893.1 - Low Jul 6 / Jun 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15

Gold conditions remain bullish for now and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s print above $1985.3, the May 24 high, reinforces a bull theme. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards $1998.1, a Fibonacci retracement point. The yellow metal remains above support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $1950.4. This average represents an important short-term level.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $25.730 - 4.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: $25.267 - High Jul 20
• PRICE: $24.690 @ 08:00 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: $24.129 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $23.849 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.109 - Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: $22.527 - Low Jul 6

A bull cycle in Silver remains in play and the latest pullback appears to be a correction - for now. The next bull trigger has been defined at $25.267, the Jul 20 high. A break of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Jun 23, and pave the way for a climb towards $26.135, the May 5 high. On the downside, the support to watch lies at $23.849, the 50-day EMA.