MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - ECB Prompts Further Fade in EUR Off Resistance

Price Signal Summary – ECB Prompts Further Fade in EUR Off Resistance

• The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and this week’s move higher has reinforced current conditions. Resistance at 4841.50, the Dec 28 high has recently been cleared, confirming an extension of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Eurostoxx 50 futures have recovered this week from 4402.00, the Jan 17 low. 4402.00 represents a key short-term support. A break of this level would resume recent bearish pressure and open 4370.00, the Nov 28 low.
• EURUSD found resistance this week at 1.0932 (Jan 24 high) and a bearish theme remains in play for now. 1.0822, Tuesday’s low, has been pierced. A clear break of this support would resume the current downtrend. EURGBP traded lower Thursday as the current bear leg extends. The cross has cleanly broken support at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low, and a bear threat remains present. AUDUSD remains in consolidation mode. From a trend perspective, a bearish theme dominates for now. On Jan 16, the pair breached a trendline drawn from the late October low.
• Gold is unchanged and remains above the Jan 17 low of $2001.9 - for now. The recent print below the 50-day EMA and the break of support at $2013.4, the Jan 11 low, has strengthened a bearish threat and a resumption of weakness would open a key level at $1973.2. WTI futures traded higher yesterday. The contract has breached resistance at $76.31, the Dec 26 high. A clear break of this hurdle undermines the recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger short-term bullish condition.
• A clear downtrend in Bund futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent move lower has strengthened the current bear trend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The trend needle in Gilt futures continues to point south and yesterday’s low print reinforces current conditions. The contract recently cleared support at 99.60, the Jan 5 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Dec 27.

EURUSD TECHS: Pierces Tuesday’s Low

• RES 4: 1.1139 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1077 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Jan 5 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 1: 1.0932/98 High Jan 24 / 5 and a reversal trigger
• PRICE: 1.0824 @ 08:12 GMT Jan 26
• SUP 1: 1.0813 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0793 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0724 Low Dec 8
• SUP 4: 1.0712 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg

EURUSD found resistance this week at 1.0932 (Jan 24 high) and a bearish theme remains in play for now. 1.0822, Tuesday’s low, has been pierced. A clear break of this support would resume the current downtrend. This would open 1.0793, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a break of 1.0932 would instead signal scope for a stronger recovery and expose key short-term resistance at 1.0998, the Jan 5 high and a reversal trigger.

GBPUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact, For Now

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2775 High Jan 24
• PRICE: 1.2707 @ 05:57 GMT Jan 26
• SUP 1: 1.2637/2597 20-day EMA / Low Jan 17 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.2525 38.2% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 4: 1.2432 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase

GBPUSD is unchanged and the pair continues to trade inside its range. Key resistance is at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high, and key support lies at 1.2597, the Jan 17 low. Both levels represent important directional triggers. A clear break of 1.2827 would resume the uptrend and open 1.2881, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, clearance of 1.2597 would highlight a S/T reversal and signal scope for weakness towards the 1.2500 handle, the Dec 13 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20
• RES 3: 0.8715 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 0.8590/8619 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 0.8534 @ 06:16 GMT Jan 26
• SUP 1: 0.8521 Low Jan 25
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8487 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8454 61.8% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase

EURGBP traded lower Thursday as the current bear leg extends. The cross has cleanly broken support at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low, and a bear threat remains present. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a clear downtrend. Sights are on 0.8493, the Aug 23 ‘23 low and a key support. The 50-day EMA, at 0.8619, is the initial firm resistance to watch. First resistance is at 0.8590, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Conditions Remain Intact

• RES 4: 150.78 High Nov 17
• RES 3: 149.75 High Nov 22
• RES 2: 149.16 76.4% retracement of the Nov 13 - Dec 28 bull leg
• RES 1: 148.80 High Jan 19
• PRICE: 147.80 @ 06:46 GMT Jan 26
• SUP 1: 146.66 Low Jan 24
• SUP 2: 146.00 50- day EMA
• SUP 3: 144.36 Low Jan 12 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: 143.42 Low Jan 9

The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Resistance at 146.41, the Jan 11 high, has recently been cleared and this confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. Sights are on 149.16 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at 144.36, the Jan 12 low. A break of this level is required to signal a top. Initial firm support to watch lies at 146.00, the 50-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Move Lower Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 164.30 High Nov 16 and key resistance
• RES 3: 163.72 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 162.25 High Nov 29
• RES 1: 161.86 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 160.03 @ 06:59 GMT Jan 26
• SUP 1: 159.59 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 158.55 Low Jan 12 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 157.21 Low Jan 9
• SUP 4: 156.08 Low Jan 4

EURJPY trend conditions remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in a breach of 160.18, the Jan 11 high. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Note that 161.69, 76.4% of the Nov 16 - Dec 7 bear leg, has been pierced. A clear break of this retracement would open 162.25, the Nov 29 high. Initial firm support is at 158.55, the Jan 12 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
• RES 1: 0.6629 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6582 @ 07:57 GMT Jan 26
• SUP 1: 0.6526/25 Low Dec 7 and key support / Low Jan 17
• SUP 2: 0.6500 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
• SUP 3: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
• SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg

AUDUSD remains in consolidation mode. From a trend perspective, a bearish theme dominates for now. On Jan 16, the pair breached a trendline drawn from the late October low. That break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper correction with attention on 0.6526, the Dec 7 low and the next key support. A clear break of this support would open 0.6500, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 0.6629, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 3: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3608 High Dec 13
• RES 1: 1.3542 High Jan 17 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3475 @ 08:05 GMT Jan 26
• SUP 1: 1.3434/3343 20-day EMA / Low Jan 12
• SUP 2: 1.3288/3177 Low Jan 5 / Low Dec 27
• SUP 3: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3158 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD maintains a firmer tone and the latest recovery reinforces a bullish theme. Price is also trading closer to its recent highs. The pair has traded above the 50-day EMA, at 1.3462, and sights are on resistance at 1.3542, the Jan 17 high and bull trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 27 and open 1.3623, 61.8% of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg. Initial support is 1.3430, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Watching Resistance At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 139.39 3.764 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 137.96/138.84 High Jan 4 / High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 136.16 High Jan 5 / 8
• RES 1: 134.97 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 134.89 @ 05:21 GMT Jan 26
• SUP 1: 133.55 Low Jan 26
• SUP 2: 133.42 Low Dec 4
• SUP 3: 132.89 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase
• SUP 4: 132.29 Low Nov 30

A clear downtrend in Bund futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent move lower has strengthened the current bear trend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Key support at the Dec 8 low of 134.37, has recently been breached and this opens 133.42, the Dec 4 low. Initial resistance is at 134.97, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would ease bearish pressure.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Pierces The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 119.640 High Jan 4
• RES 3: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 118.590 High Jan 12 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 118.100 Intraday high
• PRICE: 118.070 @ 05:35 GMT Jan 26
• SUP 1: 117.280 Low Jan 24
• SUP 2: 117.060 Low Dec 1
• SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 116.830 Low Nov 29

A bearish cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears to be a correction - for now.. The recent breach of support at 117.800, the Dec 8 low, highlights potential for a continuation lower, exposing 117.060, the Dec 1 low, On the upside, the contract has pierced resistance at the 20-day EMA at 118.009. A continuation higher would expose firm resistance at 118.590, the Jan 12 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 106.640 High Dec 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 106.360 Low Jan 3
• RES 2: 106.270 High Jan 5 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 106.200 50.0% retracement of the Dec 29 - Jan 25 bear leg
• PRICE: 106.090 @ 05:46 GMT Jan 26
• SUP 1: 105.760 Low Jan 25
• SUP 2: 105.730 Low Nov 30
• SUP 3: 105.660 High Nov 17
• SUP 4: 105.470 Low Nov 28

The downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact and Thursday’s recovery appears - for now - to be a correction. A key short-term support at 105.955, the Dec 13 low, has recently been cleared, strengthening a bearish theme. Sights are on 105.730 next, the Nov 30 low. Initial key resistance is 106.270, the Jan 5 / 12 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would ease bearish pressure and signal a reversal. First resistance is 106.200, a Fibonacci retracement.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 101.98 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 100.81 High Jan 5
• RES 2: 100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 99.54 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 98.38 @ Close Jan 25
• SUP 1: 97.57 Low Jan 25
• SUP 2: 97.39 Low Dec 11 and a key support
• SUP 3: 96.67 Low Dec 5
• SUP 4: 96.10 Low Nov 30

The trend needle in Gilt futures continues to point south and yesterday’s low print reinforces current conditions. The contract recently cleared support at 99.60, the Jan 5 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Dec 27, signalling scope for an extension towards 97.39, the Dec 11 low. Firm resistance to watch is 99.54, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would ease bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Trading Below Resistance

• RES 4: 122.63 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 122.18 3.00 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 121.43 2.764 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 119.23/77 High Jan 12 / 4
• PRICE: 118.16 @ Close Jan 25
• SUP 1: 116.98 Low Jan 25
• SUP 2: 116.72 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 115.18 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 114.10 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull cycle

A bearish corrective cycle in BTP futures remains in play. Price has recently traded below the 20-day EMA and support at 117.24, the Jan 5 low, has been breached. This opens the 50-day EMA at 116.72 - the next key support. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 119.23, the Jan 12 high. A reversal higher and a break of this level would highlight a base and a potential resumption of the primary uptrend.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Approaching The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 4700.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4662.90 1.236 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 4636.70 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2009 downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 4619.00 High Jan 25
• PRICE: 4580 00 @ 06:16 GMT Jan 25
• SUP 1: 4508.80 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4402.00 Low Jan 17 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 4370.00 Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: 4334.00 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 - Dec 14 bull leg

Eurostoxx 50 futures have recovered this week from 4402.00, the Jan 17 low. 4402.00 represents a key short-term support. A break of this level would resume recent bearish pressure and open 4370.00, the Nov 28 low. On the upside, key resistance is at 4634.00, the Dec 14 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and open 4662.90, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support lies at 4508.80, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 5000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 4982.62 1.50 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4952.45 1.382 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 4933.25 High Jan 24
• PRICE: 4902.50 @ 07:19 GMT Jan 26
• SUP 1: 4813.28/4721.08 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 4702.00 Low Jan 5
• SUP 3: 4594.00 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 4550.75 Low Nov 16

The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and this week’s move higher has reinforced current conditions. Resistance at 4841.50, the Dec 28 high has recently been cleared, confirming an extension of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 4952.45 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support lies at 4729.00, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H4) Bull Phase Extends

• RES 4: $86.50 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $84.22 - High Nov 30 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $82.57 - High Jan 25
• PRICE: $82.02 @ 07:05 GMT Jan 26
• SUP 1: $79.29 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $74.79 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 3: $72.67/71.21 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 23
• SUP 4: $69.25 - Low Mar 20 and a key support

Brent futures traded higher yesterday, extending the current bull cycle and this has resulted in a break of resistance at $81.45, the Dec 26 high. The breach undermines the recent bearish theme and instead highlights a stronger bullish condition. A continuation higher would open $84.22, the Nov 30 high and the next key hurdle for bulls. Initial support to watch lies at $79.29, the 50-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (H4) Has Breached Resistance

• RES 4: $85.71 - High Oct 20
• RES 3: $82.04 - High Nov 3
• RES 2: $79.56 - High Nov 30 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $77.51 - High Jan 25
• PRICE: $76.74 @ 07:17 GMT Jan 26
• SUP 1: $74.40/69.56 - 50-day EMA / Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: $68.28 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $65.63 - Low Jun 12
• SUP 4: $63.00 - Low May 4 and a key support

WTI futures traded higher yesterday. The contract has breached resistance at $76.31, the Dec 26 high. A clear break of this hurdle undermines the recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger short-term bullish condition. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $79.56, the Nov 30 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention on $69.56, the Jan 3 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 3: $2097.1 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 2: $2062.3/2088.5 - High Jan 12 / High Dec 28
• RES 1: $2039.4 - High Jan 19
• PRICE: $2020.5 @ 07:18 GMT Jan 26
• SUP 1: $2001.9 - Low Jan 17
• SUP 2: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold is unchanged and remains above the Jan 17 low of $2001.9 - for now. The recent print below the 50-day EMA and the break of support at $2013.4, the Jan 11 low, has strengthened a bearish threat and a resumption of weakness would open a key level at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low. For bulls, clearance of 2062.3, the Jan 12 high, is required to signal a reversal. This would expose $2088.5, the Dec 28 high.

SILVER TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $24.606/994 - High Dec 22 / 76.4% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $23.534 - High Jan 12
• PRICE: $22.827 @ 08:08 GMT Jan 26
• SUP 1: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 2: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 2023

A bearish theme in Silver remains intact and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. The recent breach of support at $22.510, the Dec 13 low, signals scope for a move to $21.883, the Nov 13 low. A break of this support would further strengthen the bearish theme. On the upside, key short-term resistance is at $24.606, the Dec 22 high. A move above this hurdle would reinstate a bullish theme. First resistance is $23.534, the Jan 12 high.