MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equities Extending Reversal

Price Signal Summary - Equities Extending Reversal

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis have started the week on a firmer note as the contract extends the reversal from 4293.75 low, Sep 20 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded down to 3974.00 on Sep 20. The contract has since reversed recent weakness and continues to push higher. Importantly, price has traded above former resistance at 4184.00 Sep 17 high paving the way for a test and potentially a break of key resistance at 4223.00, Sep 6 high.
• In FX, EURUSD outlook remains bearish and has opened key support at 1.1664, Aug 20 low and an important bear trigger. GBPUSD remains above the recent lows. Key support at 1.3602 remains unchallenged, Aug 20 low. Furthermore, it also means triangle support at 1.3636 remains intact despite being probed recently. The USD Index (DXY) key resistance resides at 93.73, Aug 20 high and the bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started May 25.
• On the commodity front, Gold traded lower Thursday confirming a print below former support at $1742.3, Sep 20 low. This confirms a resumption of the current short-term bear cycle and signals scope for a move towards $1742.5, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally. WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook and have started today's session on a firm note. The Sep 21 price pattern was a bullish doji candle, reinforcing current bull trend conditions.
• In FI, Bund futures resumed their downtrend last week breaking below a former support at 170.81, Sep 17 low. This reinforces a bearish theme and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs signalling scope for an extension lower. Gilt futures have traded lower again Friday but managed to find support at the intraday low of 125.83. The outlook remains bearish though following last week's sell-off and break of support at 126.84, Sep 17 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Consolidating Ahead Of Key Support

• RES 4: 1.1909 High Jul 30 / Sep 03 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.1870 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1846 High Sep 14
• RES 1: 1.1772 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1724 @ 06:08 BST Sep 27
• SUP 1: 1.1684 Low Sep 23
• SUP 2: 1.1664 Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1621 1.00 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD is consolidating near recent lows. The outlook remains bearish. The bear leg that started Sep 9 has cleared 1.1770, Sep 13 low and 1.1758, 61.8% of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally. Last week's extension lower also resulted in a breach of 1.1722, the 76.4% retracement. This reinforces bearish conditions and opens key support at 1.1664, Aug 20 low and an important bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.1767, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Triangle Base Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.3983/90 High Jul 30 / 61.8% of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
• RES 3: 1.3958 High Aug 4
• RES 2: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3748/92 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3679 @ 06:14 BST Sep 27
• SUP 1: 1.3636/02 Triangle base drawn from Jul 20 low / Low Aug 20
• SUP 2: 1.3572 Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3520 Low Jan 18
• SUP 4: 1.3462 50.0% retracement of the Sep '20 - Jun rally

GBPUSD remains above the recent lows. The pair reversed higher Thursday and the strong bounce leaves key support at 1.3602 unchallenged, Aug 20 low. Furthermore, it also means triangle support at 1.3636 remains intact despite being probed recently. This signals potential for a stronger rally with the focus on 1.3792, the 50-day EMA. On the downside, a clear break of 1.3636-02 is required to resume bearish pressure.

EURGBP TECHS: Remains Below Key Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8659 High Jul 21
• RES 2: 0.8614/18 High Sep 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 20 - Aug 10 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.8613 High Sep 22 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8570 @ 06:19 BST Sep 27
• SUP 1: 0.8530 Sep 20 low
• SUP 2: 0.8502/01 76.4% of the Aug 10 - Sep 7 rally / Low Sep 16
• SUP 3: 0.8484 Low Aug 16
• SUP 4: 0.8471/50 1.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Aug 10

EURGBP failed to challenge key resistance at 0.8614 last week, the Sep 7 high. A resumption of weakness would open initial support at 0.8530, Sep 20 low ahead of the key short-term support at 0.8501, Sep 16 low. A breach of this level would open 0.8484, Aug 16 low and 0.8450, Aug 10 low and the bear trigger. For bulls, the cross needs to clear 0.8614 to highlight a stronger bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Testing Resistance

• RES 4: 111.71 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 111.66 High Jul 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 111.19 High Jul 5
• RES 1: 110.80 High Aug 11, key resistance and intraday high
• PRICE: 110.59 @ 06:34 BST Sep 27
• SUP 1: 109.89/11 50-day EMA / Low Aug 16 / Sep 15
• SUP 2: 108.72 Low Aug 04 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 4: 108.47 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally

USDJPY rallied last week and is holding onto recent gains. The pair has breached resistance at 110.45/46, the Sep 8 and Aug 9 high respectively and is testing firmer resistance at 110.80, Aug 11 high. A break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish case and pave the way for a climb towards 111.66, the Jul 2 high and bull trigger. Key short-term support is unchanged at 109.11, Aug 16 / Sep 15. Initial support is at 109.89, the 50-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Holding Onto Gains

• RES 4: 131.09 High Jul 13
• RES 3: 130.36/75 1.0% 10-dma envelope / High Sep 3 bull trigger
• RES 2: 130.20 High Sep 14 high
• RES 1: 129.86 Intraday high
• PRICE: 129.63 @ 06:40 BST Sep 27
• SUP 1: 127.94/93 Low Aug 19 / Low Sep 22 the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 127.88 50.0% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jan rally
• SUP 3: 127.50 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 126.40 61.8% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jun rally

EURJPY traded sharply higher Thursday following a failure the day before to confirm a clear break of support at 127.94, Aug 19 low. A continuation higher would signal scope for gains above the 130.00 handle and would expose key short-term resistance at 130.75, Sep 3 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, the cross needs to clear support at 127.94/93 to signal a resumption of the downtrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Holding Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: 0.7478 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7410 High Sep 10
• RES 2: 0.7353 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7316 High Sep 23 and intraday high
• PRICE: 0.7282 @ 06:47 BST Sep 27
• SUP 1: 0.7220 Low Sep 20
• SUP 2: 0.7194 76.4% retracement of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 3: 0.7106 Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.7053 38.2% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb uptrend

AUDUSD rebounded Thursday and has tested the 20-day EMA. A resumption of gains would signal a reversal of the near-term downtrend that for now remains intact and continues to target 0.7220 ahead of Fibonacci support at 0.7194. The bear trigger rests below at 0.7106, Aug 20 low - a break would confirm a resumption of the bear trend that started late February. Firm resistance is seen at 0.7353, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.2976 1.00 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2957 High Dec 21, 2020
• RES 2: 1.2949 High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2796/2896 High Sep 23 / High Sep 20
• PRICE: 1.2625 @ 06:49 BST Sep 27
• SUP 1: 1.2609 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2583 Low Sep 10
• SUP 3: 1.2494 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2422 Jul 30 low and a key support

USDCAD traded lower last week and has moved further away from its recent Sep 20 high of 1.2896. A bullish price structure remains intact though and the move lower is considered corrective. Support at the 50-day EMA intersects at 1.2609, a clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback. For bulls, a reversal higher and a resumption of gains would again refocus attention on the key resistance at 1.2949, Aug 20 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Bear Trend Sequence Intact

• RES 4: 172.48 High Sep 9
• RES 3: 172.12 High Sep 14
• RES 2: 171.96 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 170.84 50.0% retracement of the Dep 21 - 24 downleg
• PRICE: 170.63 @ 05:16 BST Sep 27
• SUP 1: 170.14 Low Sep 24
• SUP 2: 170.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 169.90 1.236 proj of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 169.46 1.382 proj of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing

Bund futures resumed their downtrend last week breaking below a former support at 170.81, Sep 17 low. This reinforces a bearish theme and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs signalling scope for an extension lower. The focus is on 169.90 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 171.96, Sep 21 high. A break above this level is required to ease bearish pressure.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 135.870 High Sep 3
• RES 4: 135.660 High Sep 7 / 9
• RES 3: 135.540 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.200 Low Sep 17 and recent breakout level
• PRICE: 135.110 @ 05:00 BST Sep 27
• SUP 1: 134.980 Low Sep 24
• SUP 2: 134.924 2.764 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 134.830 3.00 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 134.736 3.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing

Bobl futures maintain a bearish tone following last week's resumption of its downtrend. The contract traded through a former support at 135.200, Sep 17 low. This maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that defines a downtrend and signals scope for an extension lower. The focus is on 134.924 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 135.540, Sep 21 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Trend Conditions Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 112.340 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 112.305 High Sep 3
• RES 2: 112.290 High Sep 20 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 112.259 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 112.230 @ 05:34 BST Sep 27
• SUP 1: 112.190 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 2: 112.183 2.618 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 112.174 2.764 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 112.159 61.8% retracement of the May - Aug rally (cont)

Schatz futures resumed bearish activity last week. The contract traded below former support at 112.215, Sep 9 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that defines a downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension lower with the focus on 112.190 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 112.290, Sep 20 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Remains Heavy

• RES 4: 128.42 High Sep 7
• RES 3: 128.18 High Sep 10, 14
• RES 2: 127.69 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 126.84 Low Sep 17 and recent breakout level
• PRICE: 126.16 @ Close Sep 24
• SUP 1: 125.83 Low Sep 24
• SUP 2: 125.48 1.00 proj of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 124.96 1.236 proj of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 124.64 1.382 proj of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing

Gilt futures have traded lower again Friday but managed to find support at the intraday low of 125.83. The outlook remains bearish though following last week's sell-off and break of support at 126.84, Sep 17 low. The move lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 126.28 and 126.14 next, Fibonacci projections. Firm resistance is at 127.69, Sep 21 high. A break of this level is required to ease bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Erodes Support

• RES 4: 155.71 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger (cont)
• RES 3: 155.68 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 1: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 152.98 @ Close Sep 24
• SUP 1: 152.72 Low Sep 24
• SUP 2: 152.66 Low Jul 15 (cont)
• SUP 3: 152.16 61.8% retracement of the Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)
• SUP 4: 151.93 Low Jul 8 (cont)

BTP futures trend conditions remain bearish. A price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that highlights a bearish theme is intact and Friday's move below 152.94, Sep 9 low, reinforces this condition. The focus is on 152.66 next, Jul 15 low on the continuation chart. On the upside, a resumption of gains would open resistance at 155.14, Aug 31 high. Key near-term resistance is at 154.64, Sep 23/24 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Bull Trigger Exposed

• RES 4: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4223.00 High Sep 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4234.50 0.764 projection of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: 4200.50 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4157.00 @ 06:03 BST Sep 27
• SUP 1: 4117.00 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4047.00/3974.00 Low Sep 22 / Low Sep 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3962.50 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 rally
• SUP 4: 3941.50 Low Jul 21

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded down to 3974.00 on Sep 20. The contract has since reversed recent weakness and continues to push higher. Importantly, price has traded above former resistance at 4184.00 Sep 17 high paving the way for a test and potentially a break of key resistance at 4223.00, Sep 6 high. A breach of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend. Key support is unchanged at 3974.00.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Lower But Still Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4539.50 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4519.75 High Sep 9
• RES 3: 4481.50 76.4% retracement of the Sep 3 - 20 downleg
• RES 1: 4478.50 High Sep 16
• PRICE: 4468.25 @ 06:55 BST Sep 27
• SUP 1: 4385.75/293.75 Low Sep 23 / Low Sep 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4243.50 Low Jul 20
• SUP 3: 4214.50 Low Jul 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: 4117.00 Low Jun 21

S&P E-minis have started the week on a firmer note as the contract extends the reversal from 4293.75 low, Sep 20 low. The contract has cleared a key short-term resistance at 4418.00, Sep 20 high. The break strengthens a bullish case and signals scope for a stronger recovery. Note too that the price is back above the 50-day day EMA and this is a positive development. 4293.75 remains the key support and is the bear trigger.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X1) Approaching $80.00

• RES 4: $82.61 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 3: $80.37 - 1.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $79.52 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $79.11 @ 07:01 BST Sep 27
• SUP 1: $76.13 - High Sep 15 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: $75.60 - Low Sep 23
• SUP 3: $73.26 - Low Sep 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $70.88 Low Sep 9

Brent futures continue to trend higher and have started the week on a firm note. The price formation Sep 21 was a doji candle, signalling scope for a resumption of gains and the contract last week breached 76.13, Sep 15 high to resume its uptrend. The move higher paves the way for a climb towards $80.00 next. Key short-term support has been defined at $73.26, Sep 21 low. A break would signal a short-term top.

WTI TECHS: (X1) Rally Extends

• RES 4: $79.53 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 3: $78.24 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 2: $76.16 - 1.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 1: $75.33 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $73.08 @ 07:082 BST Sep 27
• SUP 1: $71.61 - Low Sep 21
• SUP 2: $69.39 - Low Sep 21 and key support
• SUP 3: $67.35 - Low Sep 9
• SUP 4: $67.15 - Low Aug 24

WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook and have started today's session on a firm note. The Sep 21 price pattern was a bullish doji candle, reinforcing current bull trend conditions. The subsequent rally has resulted in a break of $73.58, the Jul 6 high and bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and paves the way for gains towards $76.16 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at $69.39, Sep 21 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Cycle Still Intact

• RES 4: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
• RES 3: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $1808.7 - High Sep 14
• RES 1: $1787.4 - High Sep 22 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: $1756.8 @ 07:22 BST Sep 27
• SUP 1: $1738.0 - Low Sep 23
• SUP 2: $1724.5 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 3: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1678.00 Low Mar 31

Gold traded lower Thursday confirming a print below former support at $1742.3, Sep 20 low. This confirms a resumption of the current short-term bear cycle and signals scope for a move towards $1742.5, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally. A breach of this level would open the key support at $1690.6 further out, Aug 9 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $1787.4, Sep 22 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

SILVER TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $25.206 - High Jun 8
• RES 3: $24.867 - High Sep 3 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: $24.042 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $23.261 - 20-Day EMA
• PRICE: $22.598 @ 07:29 BST Sep 27
• SUP 1: $22.039 - Low Sep 20
• SUP 2: $21.899 - Low Nov 30, 2020
• SUP 3: $21.677 - Low Sep 24
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

Silver is consolidating. Trend conditions remain bearish following recent sharp losses that resulted in a breach of support at $22.626, Aug 9 low. Note that a bearish theme was also recently reinforced following a failure to clear the 50-day EMA that continues to provide resistance. The focus is on $21.899 next, Nov 30, 2020 low. Key trend resistance has been defined at $24.867, Sep 3 high.