MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equities Fail to Hold Pivot Resistance

Price Signal Summary – Equities Fail to Hold Pivot Resistance

• S&P E-Minis reversed sharply lower Wednesday. It is too early to tell whether the pullback marks the start of a bearish cycle. However, the move lower means that price has - so far - failed to hold above pivot resistance around the 50-day EMA. Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding on to recent highs. The recovery from Monday’s 4057.00 low has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation higher would signal scope for 4184.50, a Fibonacci retracement.
• GBPUSD maintains a short-term bullish tone and is trading closer to its recent highs. The pair has cleared a number of short-term resistance points this week signalling scope for an extension higher. This has opened 1.2401, the Feb 2 high and 1.2448, the Jan 23 high. The USDJPY downtrend remains intact and the pair has traded lower again today, reinforcing current conditions. The continuation lower maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish, however, the bull cycle that started Mar 10, remains in play now. The move higher is considered corrective. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes resistance at the 50-day EMA - at 0.6769.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent short-term pullback is considered corrective. The breach on Mar 17 of former resistance at $1959.7, Feb 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull trend that started late September 2022. WTI futures remain in a downtrend and this week’s recovery appears to be a correction. Note that the latest move higher is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. Firm resistance is seen at $72.85 the 20-day EMA.
• Bund futures have managed to recover from Wednesday's low of 134.80. A key support at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 135.05 today, remains intact. A clear break of the average is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. Gilt futures traded to a low of 102.84 Wednesday. Price has recovered from this low. The contract has pierced support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.35. A clear break of this average would strengthen any developing bearish threat and expose 101.31.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Maintains A Firmer Tone

• RES 4: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022
• RES 3: 1.1033 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0940 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 1.0930 High Mar 23
• PRICE: 1.0836 @ 05:34 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 1.0817 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0760 High Mar 15 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 1.0697 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0672 50-day EMA

EURUSD traded to a fresh weekly high of 1.0930 on Thursday. The pair maintains a firmer short-term tone. Price has pierced 1.0911, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 15 bear leg. A clear breach of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and open 1.1000 and a key resistance at 1.1033, the Feb 2 high and a bull trigger. Short-term momentum studies remain bullish. Initial firm support is seen at 1.0760, the Mar 15 high and a recent breakout point.

GBPUSD TECHS: Holding On To This Week’s Gains

• RES 4: 1.2448 High Jan 23 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 3: 1.2420 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2401 High Feb 2
• RES 1: 1.2344 High Mar 23
• PRICE: 1.2285 @ 05:50 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 1.2262/1.2179 Low Mar 23 / 21
• SUP 2: 1.2128 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2101 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2011 Low Mar 15

GBPUSD maintains a short-term bullish tone and is trading closer to its recent highs. The pair has cleared a number of short-term resistance points this week signalling scope for an extension higher. This has opened 1.2401, the Feb 2 high and 1.2448, the Jan 23 high. The latter is a key medium-term resistance. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 1.2179, the Mar 21 low, ahead of 1.2128, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Sights Are On Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8925 High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8898 Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high
• RES 1: 0.8880 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• PRICE: 0.8820 @ 06:11 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 0.8772 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.8691 Low Dec 19

EURGBP traded higher Thursday extending the reversal from its recent lows. This week’s gains have resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, exposing a key short-term trendline resistance at 0.8893. The trendline is drawn from the Feb 3 high and a break would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, key support has been defined at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate the recent bearish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 136.99 High Mar 10
• RES 3: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 2: 133.00/133.43 High Mar 22 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 131.66 High Mar 23
• PRICE: 130.23 @ 06:32 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 129.75 76.4% retracement of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 2: 129.12 High Feb 2
• SUP 3: 128.09 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and key support

The USDJPY downtrend remains intact and the pair has traded lower again today, reinforcing current conditions. The continuation lower maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This has exposed 129.75, the 76.4% retracement of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally. Firm resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA. The average intersects at 133.43 where a break is required to ease bearish pressure.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 145.57 High Mar a2 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 144.96 High Mar 15
• RES 2: 143.98 76.4% retracement of the recent Mar 2 - 20 bear cycle
• RES 1: 142.64/143.63 50-day EMA / High Mar 22
• PRICE: 142.55 @ 16:14 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 140.00 Round number support
• SUP 2: 138.83 Low Mar 20
• SUP 3: 137.96 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 137.92 Low Jan 19

EURJPY has pulled back from Wednesday’s high of 143.63. This level represents a key short-term resistance where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme. A continuation lower would expose key support at 138.83, the Mar 20 low and a bear trigger. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull mode set-up - this suggests the latest pullback is a correction. A break of 143.63 would open 143.98, 76.4% of the Mar 2 - 20 bear cycle.

AUDUSD TECHS: Correction Still In Play

• RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
• RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 2: 0.6784 High Mar 1
• RES 1: 0.6769 50-day EMA and a key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6689 @ 07:57 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 0.6650 Low Mar 21
• SUP 2: 0.6590/47 Low Mar 15 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 3: 0.6500 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.6425 2.00 projection of the Feb 2 - 6 - 14 price swing

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish, however, the bull cycle that started Mar 10, remains in play now. The move higher is considered corrective. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes resistance at the 50-day EMA - at 0.6769. A clear break of the average would strengthen a bullish theme and suggest scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 1.3977 High Oct 13
• RES 2: 1.3898 High Oct 14
• RES 1: 1.3814/3862 High Mar 15 / 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3727 @ 08:02 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 1.3631 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 1.3589 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3515 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21

The recent move lower in USDCAD is considered corrective and this has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. A key support area to watch lies at 1.3589, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at 1.3862, the Mar 10 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend and open 1.3977, the Oct 13 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Recovery From Wednesday’s Low Extends

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 139.00 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - 22 sell-off
• RES 2: 138.42 High Mar 21
• RES 1: 138.20 61.8 retracement of the Mar 20 - 22 sell-off
• PRICE: 137.77 @ 05:13 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 135.80 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 135.05/134.80 20-day EMA / Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 134.15 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 133.33 Low Mar 15

Bund futures have managed to recover from Wednesday's low of 134.80. A key support at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 135.05 today, remains intact. A clear break of the average is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. For now, the recent retracement down is considered corrective and the move lower has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance is seen at 138.42, the Mar 21 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Short-Term Recovery

• RES 4: 120.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 119.829 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - 22 sell-off
• RES 2: 119.540 High Mar 21
• RES 1: 119.346 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - 22 sell-off
• PRICE: 119.020 @ 05:27 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 117.920 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 117.426/300 20-day EMA / Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 116.982 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 116.370 Low Mar 15

Bobl futures recovered from Wednesday’s low. The next key pivot support lies at the 20-day EMA that intersects at 117.426. A clear break of the EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. This would expose 116.982, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a continuation of gains would refocus attention on 120.610, the Mar 21 high and bull trigger. Initial firm resistance is seen at 119.540, a Fibonacci retracement.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Key Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 106.955 High Mar 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 106.629 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - 22 sell-off
• RES 2: 106.530 High Mar 21
• RES 1: 106.428 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - 22 sell-off
• PRICE: 106.255 @ 05:40 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 105.795 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 105.575 Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 105.560 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 105.336 61.8% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally

Schatz futures have recovered from Wednesday’s low of 105.575. A key support lies at 105.560, the 20-day EMA, where a break is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. For now, the recent move lower is considered corrective. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at 106.955, the Mar 20 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 106.428, a Fibonacci retracement.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Remains Above Wednesday’s Low

• RES 4: 106.27 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - 22 sell-off
• RES 3: 106.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 105.61 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - 22 sell-off
• RES 1: 105.22 High Mar 21
• PRICE: 104.97 @ Close Mar 23
• SUP 1: 103.84/102.84 Low Mar 23 / 22
• SUP 2: 102.31 61.8% retracement of the entire rally from Feb 28
• SUP 3: 102.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 101.12 76.4% retracement of the entire rally from Feb 28

Gilt futures traded to a low of 102.84 Wednesday. Price has recovered from this low. The contract has pierced support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.35. A clear break of this average would strengthen any developing bearish threat and expose 101.31, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a strong resumption of gains would refocus attention on the recent high of 107.33, the Mar 20 high.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 118.56 High Jan 19 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 117.16 High Mar 20 / 21
• RES 1: 116.14 High Mar 23
• PRICE: 115.98 @ Close Mar 23
• SUP 1: 114.23/15 20-day EMA / Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 113.02 High Mar 9 and a gap low
• SUP 3: 111.79 Low Mar 9
• SUP 4: 110.79 Low Mar 7

BTP futures remain below this week’s 117.16 high, on Mar 20 / 21. The short-term outlook is bullish and pullbacks are considered corrective. A resumption of gains would open 118.18 next, the Jan 19 high on the continuation chart and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 113.02, the Mar 9 high and a gap low on the daily chart. Initial firm support is seen at 114.23, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Holding On To The Bulk Of Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 4268.00 High Mar 6 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4240.00 High Mar 9
• RES 2: 4184.50 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 bear leg
• RES 1: 4164.00 High Mar 22
• PRICE: 4119.00 @ 06:28 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 4069.00/3914.00 Low Mar 21 / Low Mar 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3865.00 Low Jan 4
• SUP 3: 3800.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3750.00 Low Dec 30

Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding on to recent highs. The recovery from Monday’s 4057.00 low has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation higher would signal scope for 4184.50, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 4268.00, the Mar 6 high. On the downside, a reversal lower and a breach of 3914.00 would resume the recent downtrend. Initial support lies at 4069.00, the Mar 21 low.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Remains Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4148.48 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg
• RES 3: 4119.50 High Mar 6
• RES 2: 4089.39 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg
• RES 1: 4021.50/4073.75 50-day EMA / High Mar 22
• PRICE: 3986.00 @ 07:13 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 3948.50 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 3897.25/3839.25 Low Mar 20 / 13
• SUP 3: 3822.00 Low Dec 22 and a key support
• SUP 4: 3778.00 Low Nov 3

S&P E-Minis reversed sharply lower Wednesday. It is too early to tell whether the pullback marks the start of a bearish cycle. However, the move lower means that price has - so far - failed to hold above pivot resistance around the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 4021.50 and a clear break is required to strengthen bullish conditions. Watch support at 3966.25, Wednesday’s low - a break would be bearish. Key S/T resistance is 4073.75.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K3) Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: $84.00 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $81.25 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $78.78 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $77.44 - High Mar 23
• PRICE: $76.07 @ 07:01 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: $72.82/70.12 - Low Mar 21 / Low Mar 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $64.62 - 1.382 proj of the Nov - Dec - Jan price swing

A downtrend in Brent futures remains intact and this week’s recovery is considered corrective - for now. Note that a move higher is allowing a short-term oversold condition to unwind. Recent weakness resulted in the break of $76.04, the Dec 12 low and a key medium term chart point. This confirms a resumption of the broader bear trend and opens $69.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is $78.78, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (K3) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $78.17 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $75.45 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $72.85 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $71.67 - High Mar 23
• PRICE: $70.24 @ 07:10 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: $66.90/64.36 - Low Mar 21 / 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: $63.19 - 1.764 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 - Mar 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $58.41 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 - Mar 7 price swing

WTI futures remain in a downtrend and this week’s recovery appears to be a correction. Note that the latest move higher is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. Firm resistance is seen at $72.85 the 20-day EMA. Recent weakness confirmed a resumption of the broader downtrend and has paved the way for a move towards $62.43, the Dec 2 2021 low (cont). The bear trigger is $64.36, the Mar 20 low.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $2034.0 - 2.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 rally from Feb 28
• RES 1: $2009.7 - High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1987.2 @ 07:16 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: $1918.3 - Low Mar 17
• SUP 2: $1908.8 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1876.3 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1827.8 - Low Mar 10

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent short-term pullback is considered corrective. The breach on Mar 17 of former resistance at $1959.7, Feb 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull trend that started late September 2022. The test above $2000.0 opens $2034.0 next, a Fibonacci projection. $1918.3 is seen as a firm support. It is the Mar 17 low and a break would signal scope for a deeper pullback.

SILVER TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: $24.637 - High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $23.520 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 downleg
• RES 2: $23.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $23.222 - High Mar 23
• PRICE: $23.172 @ 08:06 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: $22.157 - Low Mar 21
• SUP 2: $21.474 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: $20.591/19.904 - Low Mar 13 / 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.416 - Low Nov 4

Silver remains firm having reversed sharply higher from $19.904, the Mar 10 low and the metal traded higher again Thursday. Price has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at $22.002. The clear breach of this EMA strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards $23.520, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, $22.157 marks initial firm support, the Mar 21 low.