MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equities Hone In On 50-Day EMA

Price Signal Summary – Equities Hone In On 50-Day EMA

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis are firmer and continue to recover from recent lows. Attention remains on the 50-day EMA that intersects at 4563.04 today that has been probed. It represents a key resistance. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have recovered from recent lows and the contract traded higher yesterday. Attention is on the 50-day EMA. The contract has once again traded above this EMA - it intersects at 4196.50 and represents a key resistance point.
• In FX, EURUSD bulls have paused for breath and the recent consolidation appears to be a bull flag - a continuation pattern - reinforcing bullish conditions following the recent clearance of the 20- and 50-day EMAs. GBPUSD remains inside its recent range and below last week’s high of 1.3628 on Feb 3. The outlook is bullish following the recent recovery from 1.3358, Jan 27 low and scope is seen for a climb towards 1.3662 next. USDJPY continues to trade higher and trend conditions remain bullish. The pair has probed resistance at 115.67/68, 76.4% of the Jan 4 - 24 downleg and the Jan 28 high.
• On the commodity front, Gold maintains this week’s bullish theme. The yellow metal has cleared resistance at $1822.2, the Jan 27 high. A continuation higher would expose firmer resistance and a bull trigger at $1853.9, Jan 25 high. WTI futures uptrend remains intact and short-term dips are considered corrective. The contract recently cleared resistance at $87.10, Jan 20 high to maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. This week’s move lower has reinforced bearish conditions and maintained a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The recent Jan 31 break of 121.93, Jan 19 low in Gilt futures, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend, reinforcing bearish conditions and maintaining a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bulls Pause For Breath

• RES 4: 1.1692 High Oct 28, 2021
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9, 2021
• RES 2: 1.1558 38.2% retracement of the May ‘21 - Jan 28 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.1483/84 High Jan 14 / Feb 04 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.1427 @ 06:15 GMT Feb 10
• SUP 1: 1.1331 Bear channel top drawn from the Jun 1, 2021 high
• SUP 2: 1.1267 Low Jan 2
• SUP 3: 1.1221/1121 Low Jan 1 / Low Jan 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1070 Low May 29, 2020

EURUSD bulls have paused for breath and the recent consolidation appears to be a bull flag - a continuation pattern - reinforcing bullish conditions following the recent clearance of the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The pair has also breached the top of its bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high of last year, highlighting a more significant reversal. The focus is on 1.1558, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support is seen at 1.1331, the former channel top.

GBPUSD TECHS: Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3706/49 200-dma / High Jan 13
• RES 2: 1.3662 High Jan 20
• RES 1: 1.3628 High Feb 02
• PRICE: 1.3532 @ 06:22 GMT Feb 10
• SUP 1: 1.3491/3435 Low Feb 7 / Low Feb 1
• SUP 2: 1.3358/43 Low Jan 27 / Low Dec 23
• SUP 3: 1.3301 76.4% retracement of the Dec 8 - Jan 13 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.3237 2.0% 10-dma envelope

GBPUSD remains inside its recent range and below last week’s high of 1.3628 on Feb 3. The outlook is bullish following the recent recovery from 1.3358, Jan 27 low and scope is seen for a climb towards 1.3662 next, Jan 20 high. On the downside, initial support lies at 1.3491, Monday’s low. Key support is unchanged at 1.3358, Jan 27 low. This is the trigger for a resumption of bearish pressure.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8526 76.4% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8512 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 0.8480 61.8% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8478 High Feb 7
• PRICE: 0.8441 @ 06:36 GMT Feb 10
• SUP 1: 0.8406/8389 Low Feb 4 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8285 Low Feb 3
• SUP 3: 0.8282/77 Low Feb’20 / Dec’19 and key bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8242 50% Fibonacci Retracement 2015-2020 Upleg

EURGBP is consolidating. The outlook remains positive and this week’s minor pullback is considered corrective. Bullish conditions follow the Jan 3 rebound from a major area of support. 0.8300 is the base of a multi-year range, in place since 2016 and 0.8282/77 marks the Feb’20 and Dec’19 lows. The reversal from these key chart points highlight both a S/T and potentially M/T reversal. Sights are on 0.8480 next, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDJPY TECHS: Probes Resistance

• RES 4: 118.07 2.236 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 3: 117.08 2.00 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 2: 116.35 High Jan 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 115.71 Intraday high
• PRICE: 115.67 @ 06:43 GMT Feb 10
• SUP 1: 114.91 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 114.16/113.47 Low Feb 02 / Low Jan 24 and key support
• SUP 3: 113.43 76.4% of the Nov 30 - Jan 4 rally
• SUP 4: 113.14 Low Dec 17

USDJPY continues to trade higher and trend conditions remain bullish. The pair has probed resistance at 115.67/68, 76.4% of the Jan 4 - 24 downleg and the Jan 28 high. A clear break of this hurdle would pave the way for a climb towards 116.35, this year’s high on Jan 4 and the key bull trigger. On the downside, initial support is seen at 114.91, the 20-day EMA ahead of 114.16, the Feb 2 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 133.48 High Oct 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 132.92 High Oct 21, 2021
• RES 2: 132.46 1.00 proj of the Dec 3 - Jan 5 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 132.24 High Feb 7
• PRICE: 132.11 @ 06:48 GMT Feb 10
• SUP 1: 131.26/130.38 Low Feb 7 / 50.0% of the Feb 3 large range
• SUP 2: 129.19 Low Feb 3
• SUP 3: 128.25 Low Jan 25 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 127.39 Low Dec 6 and a major support

EURJPY is trading closer to its recent highs and remains in a bull mode following the strong impulsive rally on Feb 3. The cross has cleared resistance at 131.60, Jan 5 high and a bull trigger. This break confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started on December 3. The focus is on 132.46 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is seen at 131.26/130.38, the Feb 7 low and 50.0% of the Feb 3 range.

AUDUSD TECHS: Challenging The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.7314 High Jan 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7277 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.7244 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.7195 High Feb 09
• PRICE: 0.7172 @ 06:56 GMT Feb 10
• SUP 1: 0.7107/7052 Low Feb 8 / Low Feb 4
• SUP 2: 0.6968/6963 Low Jan 28 / Low Jul 16, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.6921 Low Jul 14, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6884 0.764 proj of the Oct ‘21 - Dec ‘21 - Jan price swing

AUDUSD traded higher yesterday and topped the 50-day EMA at 0.7179 - an important pivot point. A clear break of this EMA and a close above it would threaten the current bearish condition and instead shift a focus higher toward vol band resistance of 0.7244 and the Jan 20 high at 0.7277. Markets need to slip through key support at 0.6993/91, Dec 3 2021 and Nov 2 2020 lows to re-establish any bearish theme. Initial firm support is at 0.7052, Feb 4 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Consolidating Above Support

• RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 1.2843 76.4% retracement of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2797/2814 High Jan 28 / High Jan 6 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.2675 @ 06:58 GMT Feb 10
• SUP 1: 1.2650 Low Jan 27/Feb 2
• SUP 2: 1.2560 Low Jan 26
• SUP 3: 1.2451/48 Low Jan 19 / 76.4% of the Oct - Dec rally
• SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10

USDCAD continues to consolidate and remains above initial support at 1.2650. A positive remains intact following the recovery from 1.2451, Jan 19 low that resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA and a move through 1.2768, 61.8% of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 sell-off. This reinforced a bullish theme and has opened 1.2843, the 76.4% retracement value. Initial firm support lies at 1.2560, Jan 26 low. First support is at 1.2650, Jan 27 and Feb 2 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H2) Conditions Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 171.07 High Jan 24 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 170.19 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 168.44/81 20-day EMA / High Feb 3
• RES 1: 167.00 High Feb 4
• PRICE: 165.79 @ 05:06 GMT Feb 10
• SUP 1: 165.03 Low Feb 8
• SUP 2: 164.82 Low May 3, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 3: 164.33 Low Apr 18, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 164.00 round number support

Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. This week’s move lower has reinforced bearish conditions and maintained a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average conditions are in a bear mode too highlighting current sentiment. Scope is seen for a move towards 164.82 next, May 3 2019 low on the continuation chart. 167.00 is the first resistance.

BOBL TECHS: (H2) Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 132.759 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 132.060 High Feb 3
• RES 2: 131.921 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 131.150 High Jan 4
• PRICE: 130.720 @ 05:16 GMT Feb 10
• SUP 1: 130.240 Low Feb 7
• SUP 2: 130.000 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 129.460 High Dec 7, 2015 (cont) (cont)
• SUP 4: 129.020 Low Dec 7, 2015 (sont)

Bobl futures bears have paused for breath and the contract remains above recent lows. The outlook is bearish. The recent strong selling pressure confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend and resumed the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving averages are in a bear mode too. Attention is on the psychological 130.00 handle next, the Oct 5, 2018 low (cont). The Jan 4 high of 131.150 is the first resistance.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H2) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 111.962 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 111.870 High Feb 3
• RES 2: 111.802 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 111.615 High Jan 4
• PRICE: 111.565 @ 04:53 GMT Feb 10
• SUP 1: 111.250/208 Low Feb 7 / 2.50 proj of Dec 20-Jan 19-24 swing
• SUP 2: 111.185 Low Jun 26, 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 111.140 Low Jun 11, 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 111.090 Low Jun 10, 2015 (cont)

Schatz futures remain bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. The Jan 31 sell-off resulted in a break of 111.890, Jan 19 low and a bear trigger. This confirmed a resumption and an acceleration of the downtrend. Moving average conditions remain bearish too. The focus is on 111.208 next, a Fibonacci projection. The Jan 4 high of 111.615 marks initial resistance.

GILT TECHS: (H2) Bearish Conditions Intact

• RES 4: 123.47 High Jan 24, 50-day EMA and a key resistance
• RES 3: 123.23 High Jan 26
• RES 2: 122.20/56 20-day EMA / High Feb 2
• RES 1: 121.59 High Feb 4
• PRICE: 120.91 @ Close Feb 9
• SUP 1: 120.13 Low Feb 8
• SUP 2: 120.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 119.55 2.236 proj of the Jan 13 - 19 - 24 price swing
• SUP 4: 119.36 Low Oct 10, 2018 (cont)

Gilt futures remain soft and bearish conditions dominate. The recent Jan 31 break of 121.93, Jan 19 low in Gilt futures, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend, reinforcing bearish conditions and maintaining a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. MA conditions remain in a bear mode, highlighting current sentiment. The focus is on the 120.00 psychological handle. Firm short-term resistance is seen at 122.56, Feb 2 high.

BTP TECHS: (H2) Path Of Least Resistance Remains Down

• RES 4: 146.16 High Feb 1
• RES 3: 145.11 High Feb 3
• RES 2: 144.55 Low Jan 27 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: 142.55 High Feb 4
• PRICE: 140.79 @ Close Feb 9
• SUP 1: 139.32 Low Feb 7
• SUP 2: 138.09 1.50 proj of the Dec 14 - Jan 19 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 137.52 Low May 18, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 136.86 Low May 13, 2020 (cont)

A sharp sell-off in BTP futures late last week and Monday have reinforced bearish conditions. The impulsive sell-off and break of support at 144.55, Jan 27 low, marked a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 138.09 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at the Jan 4 high of 142.55. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (H2): Has Recovered From Recent Lows

• RES 4: 4808.25 All-time high on Jan 4
• RES 3: 4739.50 High Jan 12
• RES 2: 4671.75 High Jan 18
• RES 1: 4563.04/4586.00 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• PRICE: 4575.50 @ 06:52 GMT Feb 10
• SUP 1: 4438.50/4395.50 Low Feb 4 / Low Jan 31
• SUP 2: 4212.75 Low Jan 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4186.57 23.6% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 major rally
• SUP 4: 4126.75 Low Jun 21, 2021 (cont)

S&P E-minis are firmer and continue to recover from recent lows. Attention remains on the 50-day EMA that intersects at 4563.04 today that has been probed. It represents a key resistance. A clear break of the EMA is required to suggest scope for a stronger rally that would open 4671.75 initially, Jan 18 high. A stronger reversal lower would instead refocus attention on the 4212.75 low from Jan 24. This remains the key short-term bear trigger.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Trades Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4392.50 High Nov 18 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4381.50 High Jan 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4324.50 High Jan 13
• RES 1: 4196.50/4250.00 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• PRICE: 4195.00 @ 05:46 GMT Feb 10
• SUP 1: 4056.00/3990.50 Low Feb 4 / Low Jan 24 and key support
• SUP 2: 3980.00 Low Nov 30 2021
• SUP 3: 3935.00 Low Oct 6 2021
• SUP 4: 3895.00 Low Jul 19 2021 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures have recovered from recent lows and the contract traded higher yesterday. Attention is on the 50-day EMA. The contract has once again traded above this EMA - it intersects at 4196.50 and represents a key resistance point. A clear break would suggest scope for a stronger recovery that would open 4324.50, Jan 13 high. A shift lower though would refocus attention on 3990.50, Jan 24 low and the bear trigger.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J2) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $96.09 - 2.50 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: $95.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $94.82 - 2.382 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $94.00 - High Feb 7
• PRICE: $91.28 @ 06:59 GMT Feb 10
• SUP 1: $89.93/87.72 - Low Feb 8 / Low Feb 1
• SUP 2: $84.22 - Low Jan 24 and key support
• SUP 3: $83.71 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $79.95 - Low Jan 10

Brent futures remain below recent highs. This week’s move lower is considered corrective and the outlook is bullish. The contract recently resumed its uptrend, breaking $88.69, the Jan 20 high. This means that a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains intact. MA conditions are in a bull mode too. The $90.00 handle has been cleared and the focus is on $94.82, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at $87.72.

WTI TECHS: (H2) Remains Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: $95.70 - 2.764 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: $95.00 - Round number support
• RES 2: $94.13 - 2.618 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $93.17 - High Jan 4
• PRICE: $89.47 @ 07:13 GMT Feb 10
• SUP 1: $88.41/86.50 - Low Feb 9 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $86.34/81.90 - Low Jan 31 / Low Jan 24
• SUP 3: $81.50/77.34 - 50-day EMA / Low Jan 10
• SUP 4: $74.01 - Low Jan 3

WTI futures uptrend remains intact and short-term dips are considered corrective. The contract recently cleared resistance at $87.10, Jan 20 high to maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average conditions remain in a bull mode too. Futures have cleared the psychological $90.00 handle and this opens $94.13 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support to watch is seen at $86.34, Jan 31 low.

GOLD TECHS: Maintains This Week’s Bullish Theme

• RES 4: $1877.2 - High Nov 16 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1871.0 - High Nov 18
• RES 2: $1853.9 - High Jan 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $1836.5 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 25 - 28 downleg
• PRICE: $1834.4 @ 07:14 GMT Feb 10
• SUP 1: $1805.6/1780.4 - Low Feb 7 / Low Jan 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1775.7 - Low Dec 16
• SUP 3: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1746.0 - Low Oct 6

Gold maintains this week’s bullish theme. The yellow metal has cleared resistance at $1822.2, the Jan 27 high. A continuation higher would expose firmer resistance and a bull trigger at $1853.9, Jan 25 high. Recent attention has been on the break of a bull channel base drawn off the Aug 9 low that highlighted a bearish threat plus a more significant reversal. A return lower would refocus attention on $1780.4, Jan 28 low and $1775.7, Dec 16 low.

SILVER TECHS: Retracing The Recent Downleg

• RES 4: $24.886 - High Nov 22
• RES 3: $24.700 - High Jan 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $23.994 - High Jan 25
• RES 1: $23.599 - High Jan 27
• PRICE: $23.344 @ 08:03 GMT Feb 10
• SUP 1: $22.008 - Low Feb 3 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $21.949 - Low Jan 7
• SUP 3: $21.427/423 - Low Dec 15 / Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 rally

Silver continues to recover and retrace the recent move lower between Jan 20 - Feb 3. Attention is on resistance at $23.599, Jan 27 high where a break would suggest scope for an extension and open $23.994, the Jan 25 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at $22.008, the Feb 3 low where a break is required to reinstate the recent bearish theme. This would open $21.949, the Jan 7 low.