MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equities & Oil Still Fragile

Tech Focus: Price Signal Summary - Equities and Oil Still Fragile

In the equity space, E-mini S&P remains vulnerable following last week's selling pressure from 3978.50, Mar 18 high. The support to watch remains 3875.00, Mar 19 low. A break would confirm a breach of the 20-day EMA and reinforce short-term bearish conditions.

In the FX space:
- EURUSD is softer on the week and the risk remains skewed to the downside. The key directional triggers this week are:

• Key support and bear trigger at 1.1800, Nov 23 low
• Resistance at 1.1990, Mar 11 high

• Watch support at 108.34 Mar 10 low.

- GBPUSD is weaker again this morning. The pair has cleared not only 1.3779, Mar 5 low and the bear trigger (thereby breaching the 50-day EMA and a bull channel base drawn off the Nov 2 low) as well as 1.3700, opening further losses.
- On the commodity front, a bullish theme in Gold remains in place following the recovery that started Mar 8. The focus is on $1781.4, the 50-day EMA. Support is at $1719.3, Mar 18 low. Oil contracts remain vulnerable. The bear trigger in Brent (K1) is $60.27, Mar 23 low. In WTI (K1), it is at $57.25, also the Mar 23 low.
- In the FI space:
Bunds (M1) are firmer this morning and approaching resistance. The key directional triggers are:

• 170.52, Mar 18 low
• 172.20, Mar 11 high and the bull trigger.

- Gilts (M1) are trading higher too ahead of resistance at 128.82, the overnight high. A break of this hurdle is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery. The bear trigger remains 126.79, Mar 18 low.
- Treasuries (M1) remain in a downtrend and gains are considered corrective. Resistance is at 132-09, Mar 17 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Key Support Under Pressure

• RES 4: 1.2067 High Mar 4
• RES 3: 1.2040 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.1989/90 High Mar 18 / 11 and the short-term bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1947 High Mar 22
• PRICE: 1.1841 @ 05:49 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 1.1836 Low Mar 9 and intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.1800 Low Nov 23
• SUP 3: 1.1752 1.236 proj of the Jan 6 - Feb 5 - Feb 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1746 Low Nov 11, 2020

EURUSD traded lower yesterday and closed near session lows. A bearish theme remains intact and attention turns to key short-term support at 1.1836, Mar 9 low. Note, the 200-day MA lies just above at 1.1860 and has been breached. A break of 1.1836 would strengthen a bearish argument and confirm a resumption of this year's downtrend, opening 1.1800. Initial resistance is at 1.1947, the Mar 22 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Heavy Following The Channel Breakout

• RES 4: 1.4005 High Mar 12 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 1.3959 High Mar 19
• RES 2: 1.3891 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3825 Former bull channel base drawn off the Nov 2 low
• PRICE: 1.3710 @ 06:01 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 1.3663 Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: 1.3641 38.2% retracement of the Sep 23 - Feb 24 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3567 Low Feb 4
• SUP 4: 1.3520 Low Jan 18

GBPUSD is bearish. Yesterday's move lower confirmed a breach of the bull channel base from the Nov 2, 2020 low. Furthermore, price has this week cleared the 50-day EMA and a former key support at 1.3779, Mar 5 low, triggering an important short-term reversal. The focus is on 1.3663 next, Feb 5 low. On the upside, the former channel base at 1.3825 today, provides initial resistance. Heavy!

EURGBP TECHS: Retracing Higher

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Feb 9
• RES 3: 0.8731 High Feb 26 and the S/T reversal trigger
• RES 2: 0.8668 High Mar 3
• RES 1: 0.8645 High Mar 23
• PRICE: 0.8635 @ 06:10 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 0.8577 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 0.8533 Low Mar 18 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: 0.8489 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band

EURGBP is firmer and pulling away from last week's lows as the cross extends the current retracement higher. Gains are still considered corrective though. Trend signals highlight a downtrend and attention is on 0.8533, Mar 18 low and the bear trigger. A break would resume the trend and expose 0.8489, a volatility based support. Firm resistance is at 0.8731, Feb 26 high. A breach of this hurdle is needed to signal a short-term reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 110.63 0.764 proj of Mar - Apr 2020 rally from Jan 6 low
• RES 3: 109.85 High Jun 5, 2020
• RES 2: 109.70 High Jun 8, 2020
• RES 1: 109.36/56 High Mar 15 / 76.4% of Mar 2020 - Jan downleg
• PRICE: 108.48 @ 06:20 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 108.34 Low Mar 10 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 108.01 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 106.97 Low Mar 4
• SUP 4: 106.60 50-day EMA

USDJPY remains in a consolidation mode with trend conditions still bullish. Attention is on 109.56, a key retracement where a break would reinforce bullish sentiment. Momentum studies remain overbought however this condition is not having an impact on the trend and instead, the set-up continues to reinforce the current bullish theme. Support to watch is at 108.34, Mar 10 low. A break would signal a possible top and a correction.

EURJPY TECHS: Approaching The 50-day EMA

• RES 4: 131.58 High Oct 4 2018
• RES 3: 131.22 1.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 2: 130.67 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 129.94 High Mar 22
• PRICE: 128.51 @ 06:37 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 128.15 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 128.00 Trendline support drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low
• SUP 3: 127.50 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 127.31 Low Feb 17

EURJPY traded sharply lower yesterday as the correction from 130.67, Mar 18 high extends. The cross has traded through the 20-day EMA and the clear break paves the way for a move towards the 50-day EMA at 128.13 and a trendline support at 128.00. The trendline is drawn off the Oct 30 low. A break of this line would suggest scope for a deeper sell-off. On the upside, initial resistance is at 129.94, Mar 22 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Clears Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 0.7807 Trendline resistance drawn off the Feb 25 high
• RES 3: 0.7757 High Mar 22
• RES 2: 0.7699 Low Mar 17
• RES 1: 0.7636 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.7596 @ 06:48 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 0.7564 Low Feb 2 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.7517 Low Dec 22
• SUP 3: 0.7462 Low Dec 21
• SUP 4: 0.7418 23.6% retracement of the Mar 2020 - Feb rally

AUDUSD traded lower Tuesday and maintains a softer tone. The pair has this week breached support at 0.7621, Mar 9 low and a bear trigger. The break lower confirms a resumption of the bearish cycle that started at 0.8007, Feb 25 high and the move lower paves the way for weakness towards 0.7564 next, the Feb 2 low and below. On the upside, key resistance has been established at 0.7849, Mar 18 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Retracement

• RES 4: 1.2749 High Feb 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2700 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 1.2650 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2603 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2588 @ 06:57 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 1.2516 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 1.2462 Low Mar 19
• SUP 3: 1.2365 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2336 1.00 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing

The USDCAD recovery remains intact and the pair has edged higher again today. Recent gains are considered corrective however the continued push higher does suggest scope for a stronger short-term recovery. The pair has cleared the 20-day EMA and attention turns to the 50-day EMA at 1.2650. On the downside, firm support is seen at 1.2462, Mar 19 low. A break would expose key support at 1.2365.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Probing Key Resistance

• RES 4: 173.48 1.00 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 11 - Mar 18 price swing
• RES 3: 172.83 Low May 5
• RES 2: 172.51 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 172.29 Intraday high
• PRICE: 172.25 @ 04:57 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 171.42 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 170.52 Low Mar 18 and key support
• SUP 3: 170.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 169.24 Low Feb 25 and the bear trigger

Bund futures are firmer again today and key resistance at 172.20, Mar 11 high has been probed. A clear break of this level would represent an important short-term bullish development and signal the end of the recent period of consolidation. Also, a break higher would confirm a resumption of the upleg that started on Feb 25. This would open 172.51, Feb 16 high ahead of the 173.00 handle. Key support has been defined at 170.52, Mar 18 low.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Extends Gains

• RES 4: 135.700 High Dec 11, 2020 (cont)
• RES 3: 135.544 0.764 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 9 price swing
• RES 2: 135.480 High Jan 27 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 1: 135.398 0.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 9 price swing
• PRICE: 135.380 @ 05:05 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 135.140 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 134.870 Low Mar 18
• SUP 3: 134.780 Low Mar 8 and 9
• SUP 4: 134.730 Low Mar 1

Bobl futures maintain a firmer tone. Resistance at 135.220, Mar 16 has been cleared. The clear break of this hurdle ends the recent period of consolidation and confirms a resumption of the recovery that started Feb 26. This paves the way for strength towards 135.480 next, Jan 27 high. Initial firm support has been defined at 134.870, Mar 18 low where a break is required to reinstate a bearish theme.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Holding Onto Gains

• RES 4: 112.186 50-day EMA (cont)
• RES 3: 112.174 0.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 2: 112.152 0.50 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 1: 112.150 High Mar 22 and 23
• PRICE: 112.145 @ 05:17 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 112.095 Low Mar 19
• SUP 2: 112.070 Low Mar 18 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 112.060 Low Mar 10
• SUP 4: 112.045 Low Mar 1

Schatz futures maintain a firmer tone. The contract has breached resistance at 112.125, Mar 1 / 2 high. The break strengthens a short-term bullish theme and signals a resumption of the recovery that started Feb 26. Attention is on 112.152 and 112.174, Fibonacci projections. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at 112.070, Mar 18 low. A break is required to reinstate a bearish theme.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 130.38 High Feb 17
• RES 3: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 2: 129.27 High Mar 2 and the reversal trigger
• RES 1: 128.48 High Mar 17
• PRICE: 128.29 @ Close Mar 23
• SUP 1: 127.55 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

Gilt futures traded higher yesterday, extending the corrective bounce from 126.79, the Mar 18 low. Price has traded above resistance at 128.33, Mar 16 high. Continued gains would suggest near-term scope for a climb towards firm resistance at 129.27, Mar 2 high. From a trend perspective, the broader downtrend remains intact. The trigger for a resumption of bearish pressure is 126.79.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Attention Turns To Resistance

• RES 4: 151.33 1.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 5 price swing
• RES 3: 151.05 1.50 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 5 price swing
• RES 2: 150.69 76.4% retracement of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off
• RES 1: 150.01/39 High Mar 16 / High Mar 11
• PRICE: 149.94 @ Close Mar 23
• SUP 1: 148.97 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 148.36 Low Mar 18
• SUP 3: 148.20 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 rally
• SUP 4: 147.56 Low Mar 5

BTP futures traded higher again yesterday as the recovery 148.36, Mar 18 low extends. Resistance is at 150.39, Mar 11 high with a pivotal level at 150.69, 76.4% of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off. The recent focus has been on the likelihood of a bearish theme and while resistance remains intact, the S/T risk still appears skewed to the downside. A breach of 148.36 would reinforce this theme. On the upside, clearance of 150.39 would be bullish.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 Techs: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 3926.56 1.764 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 3: 3900.30 High May 2008
• RES 2: 3889.08 1.618 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 1: 3874.91 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 3827.02 @ Close Mar 23
• SUP 1: 3804.90 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 3786.86 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3742.53 High Feb 15 and recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 3702.71 50-day EMA

EUROSTOXX 50 is trading below recent highs. Short-term retracements are considered corrective with bullish conditions still intact. The breach on Mar 8 of 3742.53, Feb 15 high confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. This also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 3889.08 next, a Fibonacci projection. The next firm support area is seen at the 20-day EMA. It intersects at 3786.86.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K1) Clears Trendline Support

• RES 4: $71.38 - High Mar 5 and the key bull trigger
• RES 3: $70.03 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $68.15 - High Mar 18
• RES 1: $65.12 - High Mar 22 and a firm near-term resistance
• PRICE: $61.49 @ 06:56 Mar 24
• SUP 1: $60.27 - Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: $58.56 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: $57.09 - High Jan 13
• SUP 4: $56.07 - Low Feb 2

Brent crude futures traded lower yesterday. The break lower this week has confirmed a clear breach of trendline support drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low and the 50-day EMA. This reinforces a bearish theme and scope is seen for a sell-off towards $58.56 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, resistance is at $65.12, Mar 22 high. A break is required to ease the current bearish pressure.

WTI TECHS: (K1) Bearish Theme Dominates

• RES 4: $67.79 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $66.44 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $64.88 - High Mar 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: $62.04 - High Mar 22
• PRICE: $58.49 @ 07:08 Mar 24
• SUP 1: $57.25 - Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: $55.65 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: $53.68 - High Jan 13
• SUP 4: $51.24 - Low Jan 22

WTI futures faced selling pressure once again yesterday. This has resulted in a confirmed break of trendline support drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low and the 50-day EMA. The move lower suggests the current bearish cycle is likely to extend with attention on $55.65 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, firm resistance has been defined at $62.04, Mar 22 high. A break of this level would ease the current bearish pressure.

GOLD TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: $1816.0 - High Feb 23
• RES 3: $1805.7 - High Feb 25
• RES 2: $1779.3 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1755.5 - High Mar 18
• PRICE: $1730.1 @ 07:10 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: $1719.3 - Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: $1699.3 - Low Mar 12
• SUP 3: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1671.0 - Low Jun 5, 2020

Gold is consolidating with support at $1719.3, Mar 18 low intact. A break lower would signal scope for a deeper pullback and open $1699.3, Mar 12 low and the trigger for a test of key support at $1676.9, Mar 8 low. From a short-term trend perspective, the recovery from $1676.9, Mar 8 low remains intact. Key near-term resistance and the bull trigger is at $1755.5, Mar 18 high. A break would open $1779.3, the 50-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Theme

• RES 4: $28.328 - High Feb 23 and key resistance
• RES 3: $27.595 - High Feb 26
• RES 2: $27.081 - High Mar 1
• RES 1: $26.636 - High Mar 18 and firm near-term resistance
• PRICE: $25.269 @ 09:25 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: $24.7836 - Low Mar 5
• SUP 2: $24.700 - Low Jan 27
• SUP 3: $24.057 - Jan 18 low and a key support
• SUP 4: $23.524 - Low Dec 7

Silver traded lower again yesterday. A bearish risk remains intact and the recent sell-off between Feb 23 - Mar 5 highlights this theme. A former key support at $25.905, Feb 4 low has also recently been cleared and this sets the scene for a deeper pullback exposing $24.700, Jan 27 low ahead of the Jan 18 low at $24.057. The bear trigger remains $24.836, Mar 5 low. On the upside, near-term resistance is seen at $26.636, Mar 18 high.