MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equities Unsteady as ES1 Falters

Price Signal Summary – Equities Unsteady as ES1 Falters

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis traded sharply lower Friday. The contract has failed to hold above the 50-day EMA - at 4555.49 today. This average still represents a firm resistance and a clear breach of it is required to suggest scope for a stronger rally that would open 4671.75 initially, Jan 18 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures appear vulnerable. The contract last week failed to hold above the 50-day EMA - at 4194.20 today. The average still represents a key resistance point where a clear break would suggest scope for a stronger recovery and open 4324.50, Jan 13 high.
• In FX, EURUSD traded lower Friday and remains near its recent low. The short term trend condition remains bullish however a key short-term resistance has been defined at Thursday’s high of 1.1495. USDJPY traded higher last week before fading into Friday’s close. The pair cleared resistance at 115.67/68, 76.4% of the Jan 4 - 24 downleg and the Jan 28 high and traded to a high just short of key resistance at 116.35, Jan 4 high and the bull trigger.
• On the commodity front, Gold rallied sharply higher Friday resulting in a clear breach of resistance at $1853.9, the Jan 25 high. The break reinforces current bullish conditions and suggests scope for a stronger climb within the bull channel drawn off the Aug 9 low. WTI futures rallied Friday and have resumed their uptrend. The break higher also resumes the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that corrections remain shallow and this both highlights and reinforces underlying bullish sentiment.
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend although the contract is trading in a more volatile manner. Last week’s move lower, reinforced bearish conditions and this maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged and remains bearish. Continued selling pressure last week reinforces this condition and maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 1.1692 High Oct 28, 2021
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9, 2021
• RES 2: 1.1558 38.2% retracement of the May ‘21 - Jan 28 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.1495 High Feb 10
• PRICE: 1.1348 @ 06:10 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 1.1320 Bear channel top drawn from the Jun 1, 2021 high
• SUP 2: 1.1267 Low Jan 2
• SUP 3: 1.1221/1121 Low Jan 1 / Low Jan 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1070 Low May 29, 2020

EURUSD traded lower Friday and remains near its recent low. The short term trend condition remains bullish however a key short-term resistance has been defined at Thursday’s high of 1.1495. A break of this level is required to confirm a resumption of the recent upleg and also remove any bearish concerns - broader moving average signals still suggest the MT trend is down. Key short-term support is at 1.1320, the top of the former channel.

GBPUSD TECHS: In A Short-Term Range

• RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3703/49 200-dma / High Jan 13
• RES 2: 1.3662 High Jan 20
• RES 1: 1.3644 High Feb 10
• PRICE: 1.3541 @ 06:15 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 1.3491 Low Feb 7
• SUP 2: 1.3435 Low Feb 1
• SUP 3: 1.3358 Low Jan 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3301 76.4% retracement of the Dec 8 - Jan 13 bull phase

GBPUSD is trading inside its recent range and above support at 1.3491, Feb 7 low. The outlook remains bullish following recent gains from 1.3358, Jan 27 low and scope is seen for a test of 1.3662 next, Jan 20 high. On the downside, a breach of 1.3491, Feb 7 low would threaten the current bull theme and expose key support at 1.3358, Jan 27 low. This is the trigger for a resumption of bearish pressure.

EURGBP TECHS: Considered Pullback

• RES 4: 0.8526 76.4% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8512 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 0.8480 61.8% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8432/78 High Feb 11 / High Feb 7
• PRICE: 0.8379 @ 06:24 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 0.8331 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 7 uptrend
• SUP 2: 0.8285 Low Feb 3
• SUP 3: 0.8282/77 Low Feb’20 / Dec’19 and key bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8242 50% Fibonacci Retracement 2015-2020 Upleg

EURGBP pulled back sharply Friday and is again trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Despite this recent pullback, the short-term outlook remains bullish. This follows the Feb 3 rebound from a major area of support at 0.8300, the base of a multi-year range since 2016 and 0.8282/77, the Feb’20 and Dec’19 lows. Sights are on 0.8480 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The next support to watch is 0.8331, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDJPY TECHS: Eyeing Key S/T Resistance

• RES 4: 118.07 2.236 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 3: 117.08 2.00 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 2: 116.35 High Jan 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.34 High Feb 10
• PRICE: 115.87 @ 15:36 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 115.02 Low Feb 11
• SUP 2: 114.62 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 114.16 Low Feb 02
• SUP 4: 1113.47 Low Jan 24 and key support

USDJPY traded higher last week before fading into Friday’s close. The pair cleared resistance at 115.67/68, 76.4% of the Jan 4 - 24 downleg and the Jan 28 high and traded to a high just short of key resistance at 116.35, Jan 4 high and the bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 117.08, a projection of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing. Initial support is seen at 115.02.

EURJPY TECHS: Sharp Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 134.16 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 3: 133.48/69 High Oct 20 and key resistance / 2.0% 10-dma env
• RES 2: 133.15 High Feb 10
• RES 1: 131.52 50.0% retracement of Friday’s range
• PRICE: 132.06 @ 15:38 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 130.81 Low Feb 14
• SUP 2: 130.18 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 129.19 Low Feb 3
• SUP 4: 128.25 Low Jan 25 and a key short-term support

EURJPY has failed to hold onto the recent highs and the cross traded sharply lower Friday. A key support zone is seen at 130.65-18 marking the 20- and 50-day EMAs. For now, the pullback Friday is considered corrective with bullish conditions still intact following recent strong recovery from the late January lows. Key resistance is at 133.15, Feb 10 high. A clear break of 130.65/18 would signal scope for a deeper pullback.

AUDUSD TECHS: Shooting Star Candle

• RES 4: 0.7314 High Jan 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7277 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.7273 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.7249 High Feb 09
• PRICE: 0.7123 @ 06:57 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 0.7107/7052 Low Feb 8 / Low Feb 4
• SUP 2: 0.6968/6963 Low Jan 28 / Low Jul 16, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.6921 Low Jul 14, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6884 0.764 proj of the Oct ‘21 - Dec ‘21 - Jan price swing

AUDUSD has reversed lower from Thursday’s high of 0.7249. The pullback means the pair has failed to remain above the 50-day EMA and this is an early warning of a possible stronger reversal. Thursday’s candle pattern is a shooting star - a bearish signal. A deeper pullback would expose 0.7052, Feb 4 low. A break here would open 0.6968/6963, the Jan 28 and Jul 16, 2020 lows. Clearance of 0.7249 is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme.

USDCAD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 1.2843 76.4% retracement of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2797 High Jan 28 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.2739 @ 07:01 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 1.2636 Low Feb 10
• SUP 2: 1.2560 Low Jan 26
• SUP 3: 1.2451/48 Low Jan 19 / 76.4% of the Oct - Dec rally
• SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10

USDCAD is currently trading in a range and holding above support at 1.2636, Feb 10 low. A positive outlook remains intact following the recent recovery from 1.2451, Jan 19 low that resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA and a climb through 1.2768, 61.8% of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 sell-off. This has opened 1.2843, the 76.4% value. On the downside, a break below 1.2636 would threaten the bullish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 169.79 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 167.81 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 167.00 High Feb 4
• RES 1: 166.46 Feb 11 high
• PRICE: 165.94 @ 05:01 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 164.37 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 164.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 163.63 Low Mar, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 162.60 76.4% retrace of the Oct ‘18 - Sep ‘19 bull cycle (cont)

Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend although the contract is trading in a more volatile manner. Last week’s move lower, reinforced bearish conditions and this maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average conditions are in a bear mode set-up too highlighting current sentiment. The focus is on the 164.00 handle next. 166.46 is initial resistance, the Feb 11 high.

BOBL TECHS: (H2) Trend Remains Down

• RES 4: 132.582 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 132.060 High Feb 3
• RES 2: 131.655 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 131.360 High Feb 11
• PRICE: 131.010 @ 05:06 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 130.080 Low Feb 10
• SUP 2: 130.000 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 129.460 High Dec 7, 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 129.020 Low Dec 7, 2015 (sont)

Bobl futures are trading above recent lows but remain in a clear downtrend. Continued selling pressure and fresh trend lows maintain the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving averages are in a bear mode too and attention is on the psychological 130.00 handle next. Initial resistance is seen at 131.360, Feb 11 high. Short term gains would be considered corrective.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H2) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 112.020 High Jan 31
• RES 3: 111.929 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 111.870 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 111.760 High Feb 11
• PRICE: 111.685 @ 05:22 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 111.420 High Feb 11
• SUP 2: 111.250/208 Low Feb 7 / 2.50 proj of Dec 20-Jan 19-24 swing
• SUP 3: 111.185 Low Jun 26, 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 111.140 Low Jun 11, 2015 (cont)

The trend direction in Schatz futures remains bearish and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. The sell-off between Jan 24 and Feb 7 resulted in a break of 111.890, Jan 19 low and confirmed a resumption and an acceleration of the downtrend. Moving average conditions remain bearish too. Friday’s high of 111.760 marks initial resistance. A return lower would refocus attention on 111.420, Feb 11 low and 111.250, the Feb 7 low.

GILT TECHS: (H2) Southbound

• RES 4: 123.21 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 121.80 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 121.59 High Feb 4
• RES 1: 120.96 High Feb 8
• PRICE: 119.95 @ Close Feb 11
• SUP 1: 119.54 Low Feb 10
• SUP 2: 119.36 Low Oct 10, 2018 (cont)
• SUP 3: 119.28 2.382 proj of the Jan 13 - 19 - 24 price swing
• SUP 4: 119.06 2.500 proj of the Jan 13 - 19 - 24 price swing

The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged and remains bearish. Continued selling pressure last week reinforces this condition and maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, moving averages are pointing south too. With the 120.00 psychological handle cleared, the focus is on 119.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term resistance is seen at 120.96.

BTP TECHS: (H2) Ended Last Week On A Soft Note

• RES 4: 144.55 Low Jan 19
• RES 3: 143.02 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 142.55 High Feb 4
• RES 1: 141.14 High Jan 9
• PRICE: 138.78 @ Close Feb 11
• SUP 1: 138.56 Low Feb 11
• SUP 2: 138.09 1.50 proj of the Dec 14 - Jan 19 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 137.52 Low May 18, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 136.86 Low May 13, 2020 (cont)

BTP futures ended last week on a soft note, closing at the week’s low. The outlook remains bearish. Continued selling pressure has confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 138.09 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the Feb 9 high of 141.14.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (H2): Bearish Engulfing Candle Still In Play

• RES 4: 4808.25 All-time high on Jan 4
• RES 3: 4739.50 High Jan 12
• RES 2: 4671.75 High Jan 18
• RES 1: 4586.00 High Feb 2 and a near-term bull trigger
• PRICE: 4415.75@ 06:57 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 4393.25 Low Feb 11
• SUP 2: 4263.25 Low Jan 27
• SUP 3: 4212.75 Low Jan 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4186.57 23.6% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 major rally

S&P E-minis traded sharply lower Friday. The contract has failed to hold above the 50-day EMA - at 4555.49 today. This average still represents a firm resistance and a clear breach of it is required to suggest scope for a stronger rally that would open 4671.75 initially, Jan 18 high. The Jan 10 candle pattern is a bearish engulfing reversal, signalling a potential top and the recent move lower reinforces the pottern. A deeper pullback would expose 4212.75.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Appears Vulnerable

• RES 4: 4392.50 High Nov 18 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4381.50 High Jan 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4324.50 High Jan 13
• RES 1: 4194.20/4250.00 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• PRICE: 4082.00 @ 05:42 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 4056.00 Low Feb 4
• SUP 2: 3990.50 Low Jan 24 and key support
• SUP 3: 3980.00 Low Nov 30 2021
• SUP 4: 3935.00 Low Oct 6 2021

EUROSTOXX 50 futures appear vulnerable. The contract last week failed to hold above the 50-day EMA - at 4194.20 today. The average still represents a key resistance point where a clear break would suggest scope for a stronger recovery and open 4324.50, Jan 13 high. The shift lower however is a bearish development and an extension would refocus attention on 3990.50, the Jan 24 low and bear trigger.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J2) Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: $100.00 - Key psychological barrier
• RES 3: $98.94 - 2.764 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 2: $97.36 - 2.618 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $96.16 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $95.34 @ 07:07 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: $89.93/87.72 - Low Feb 8 / Low Feb 1
• SUP 2: $84.22 - Low Jan 24 and key support
• SUP 3: $84.42 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $79.95 - Low Jan 10

Brent futures resumed their uptrend Friday, clearing former resistance and the recent high of $94.00, Feb 7 high. The break resumes the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that corrections remain shallow and this highlights and reinforces underlying bullish sentiment. The focus is on $97.36 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $89.93, the Feb 8 low.

WTI TECHS: (H2) Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: $100.00 - Key psychological barrier
• RES 3: $98.24 - 3.00 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 2: $95.70 - 2.764 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $94.94 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $94.48 @ 08:00 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: $88.41 - Feb 9 low and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $86.34 - Low Jan 31
• SUP 3: $82.27 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $81.90 - Low Jan 24

WTI futures rallied Friday and have resumed their uptrend. The break higher also resumes the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that corrections remain shallow and this both highlights and reinforces underlying bullish sentiment. The focus is on $95.70 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $88.41, the Feb 9 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Despite Yesterday’s Pullback

• RES 4: $1903.1 - High Jun 11, 2021
• RES 3: $1877.2 - High Nov 16 and key resistance
• RES 2: $1871.0 - High Nov 18
• RES 1: $1865.5 - High Feb 11
• PRICE: $1854.7 @ 07:27 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11
• SUP 2: $1804.2 - Bull channel base drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low
• SUP 3: $1788.7 - Low Feb 3
• SUP 4: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support

Gold rallied sharply higher Friday resulting in a clear breach of resistance at $1853.9, the Jan 25 high. The break reinforces current bullish conditions and suggests scope for a stronger climb within the bull channel drawn off the Aug 9 low. A recent attempt at clearing the channel base failed, resulting in the current rally. The focus is on $1877.2, Nov 16, 2021 low. Initial support is at Friday’s low of $1821.1.

SILVER TECHS: Holding Onto Recent Gains

• RES 4: $24.886 - High Nov 22
• RES 3: $24.700 - High Jan 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $23.994 - High Jan 25
• RES 1: $23.780 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $23.654@ 08:15 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: $22.008 - Low Feb 3 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $21.949 - Low Jan 7
• SUP 3: $21.427/423 - Low Dec 15 / Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 rally

Silver traded higher last week and remains firm. The recent climb suggests scope for a stronger recovery and has opened $23.994, the Jan 25 high. A break of this level would expose $24.700, the Jan 20 high. On the downside, key support is at $22.008, the Feb 3 low. A break of this support would reinstate the recent bearish theme. This would instead open $21.949, the Jan 7 low.