MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equity Bounce Deemed Corrective

Price Signal Summary – Equity Bounce Deemed Corrective

• E-Mini S&P futures traded higher Wednesday however despite these gains, the contract remains vulnerable. Key support lies at 4094.25, the Feb 24 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain vulnerable however a bullish corrective cycle dominates for now following this week’s gains. The move higher is allowing an oversold condition to unwind. Resistance to watch is at 3850.60, the 20-day EMA.
• Yesterday’s gains in EURUSD are considered corrective. The downtrend remains intact and short-term gains are allowing an oversold condition to unwind. Recent weakness confirmed a resumption of the downtrend with moving averages still pointing south. The GBPUSD trend condition remains bearish. The sell-off earlier in the week cleared key support at 1.3163, Dec 8 low. The move lower reinforces bearish conditions and has confirmed a resumption of the broader downtrend that started early January 2021. AUDUSD remains below Monday’s high of 0.7441. The recent pullback still suggests scope for a deeper correction - Monday’s price pattern is a bearish shooting star candle, highlighting a short-term top.
• The all-time high print in Gold of $2075.5 on Aug 7 2020 remains intact for now following yesterday's strong sell-off. The broader trend condition remains bullish and the pullback is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. WTI futures remain in a clear uptrend although yesterday’s sharp sell-off signals potential for a deeper short-term pullback. This would allow the recent overbought trend condition to unwind.
• Bund futures traded lower again Wednesday, extending this week’s bearish pressure. The contract has breached support at 165.51, Mar 3 low to suggest potential for a deeper pullback. Gilt futures traded lower Wednesday to again confirm an extension of the pullback from the recent high of 126.81 on Mar 1. The contract has breached support at 123.50, Mar 1 low and 122.47, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb 16 - Mar 1 rally.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 1.1185 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.1154 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.1121 Low Jan 28 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 1.1095 High Mar 9
• PRICE: 1.1064 @ 06:30 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 1.0890/06 Low MAr 9 / Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
• SUP 3: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0654 2.50 proj of the Jan - Mar - May 2021 price swing

Yesterday’s gains in EURUSD are considered corrective. The downtrend remains intact and short-term gains are allowing an oversold condition to unwind. Recent weakness confirmed a resumption of the downtrend with moving averages still pointing south. Furthermore, a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact. A resumption of weakness would open 1.0767, a low dating back to May 2020. Resistance is at 1.1121.

GBPUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.3446 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.3369 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3358 Low Jan 27
• RES 1: 1.3259 High Mar 7
• PRICE: 1.3183 @ 06:34 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 1.3082 Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3058 1.50 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933 Low Nov 5 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

The GBPUSD trend condition remains bearish. The sell-off earlier in the wek cleared key support at 1.3163, Dec 8 low. The move lower reinforces bearish conditions and has confirmed a resumption of the broader downtrend that started early January 2021. This opens 1.3058 next, a 1.50 projection of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at Monday’s 1.3259 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Probes A Key Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8498 High Dec 23
• RES 3: 0.8478 High Feb 7 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8432 High Feb 11
• RES 1: 0.8418 Mar 9 High
• PRICE: 0.8389 @ 06:50 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 0.8317 Low Mar 9
• SUP 2: 0.8278 Low Mar 7
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low MAr 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8131 Low Jun 27, 2016

EURGBP traded higher into the Wednesday close and traded above the key resistance at the Feb 25 high of 0.8406. This week's strength completes a 100% retracement of the most recent downleg between Feb 25 - Mar 7 and strengthens short-term bullish conditions. The move higher opens gains toward next resistance at the early February highs of 0.8432/78. Initial support is seen at Wednesday's 0.8317 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 118.07 2.236 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 3: 117.08 2.00 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 2: 116.34/35 High Feb 10 / High Jan 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.20 Intraday high
• PRICE: 116.05 @ 06:55 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 115.28 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 114.41 Low Feb 24
• SUP 3: 114.16 Low Feb 02 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 113.47 Low Jan 24 and a key support

USDJPY maintains this week’s firmer tone and has breached resistance at 115.87, the Feb 15 high. The USD has remained above the Feb 24 low of 114.41 and more importantly above its key support at 114.16, Feb 2 low. While the latter support holds, the trend condition remains bullish highlighted by a positive moving average set-up. Attention is on the 116.34/35 key resistance and bull trigger, the Feb 10 and Jan 4 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 130.29 High Feb 25
• RES 3: 129.40 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 128.77 50% Retracement Feb - Mar Downleg
• RES 1: 128.49 Intraday high
• PRICE: 128.31 @ 07:21 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 126.01 Low Mar 9
• SUP 2: 124.40/28 Low Mar 7 / 50.0% of the 2020 - 2021 bulls cycle
• SUP 3: 123.45 1.618 proj of the Jan - Sep - Oct ‘21 price swing
• SUP 4: 123.01 Low Nov 20 2020

The corrective bounce in EURJPY extended Wednesday, putting the cross within range of the 50% retracement for the Feb - Mar downleg, at 128.77. Clearance of this resistance would suggest scope for a stronger recovery towards the 50-day EMA at 129.40. This week's gains are considered corrective however and trend signals such as moving averages, continue to highlight a downtrend. Monday’s low of 124.40 is the bear trigger.

AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: 0.7599 High Jul 6, 2021
• RES 3: 0.7556 High Oct 28, 2021 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.7532 High Nov 2, 2021
• RES 1: 0.7441 High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.734 @ 07:59 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 0.7247/45 20-day EMA / Low Mar 8
• SUP 2: 0.7215 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.7141 Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: 0.7095 Low Feb 24

AUDUSD remains below Monday’s high of 0.7441. The recent pullback still suggests scope for a deeper correction - Monday’s price pattern is a bearish shooting star candle, highlighting a short-term top. This has exposed 0.7247/15, the 20- and 50-day EMA values and a key support zone. The trend remains up though following recent gains and the break of resistance at 0.7314, Jan 13 high. A continuation higher would refocus attention on 0.7441.

USDCAD TECHS: Off Recent Highs

• RES 4: 1.3024 38.2% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘21 bear cycle
• RES 3: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 1: 1.2901 High Mar 8
• PRICE: 1.2806 @ 08:05 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 1.2743/11 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2587 Low Mar 3
• SUP 3: 1.2552 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally
• SUP 4: 1.2499 Low Jan 21

USDCAD has found resistance at 1.2901, Tuesday’s high and the pair pulled back yesterday. The USD still needs to confirm a clear break of the key near-term resistance at 1.2878, the Feb 24 high. Clearance of this level would be seen as a bullish short-term development and open 1.2964, the Dec 20 high and a key resistance too. Weakness below 1.2587 is required to reinstate a bearish threat. Initial support is at 1.2743, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Pullback From Monday’s High Extends

• RES 4: 170.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 168.67 High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 167.17 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 165.29 High Mar 9
• PRICE: 163.56 @ 05:06 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 163.38 Low Mar 9
• SUP 2: 163.19 76.4% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 rally
• SUP 3: 162.29 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 161.50 Low Feb 10 and the bear trigger

Bund futures traded lower again Wednesday, extending this week’s bearish pressure. The contract has breached support at 165.51, Mar 3 low to suggest potential for a deeper pullback. Further weakness would open 163.19, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this support would signal potential for a move towards the key level at 161.50, the Feb 10 low and a medium-term bear trigger. Initial resistance is at 165.29, the Mar 9 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Trading At This Week’s Lows

• RES 4: 134.400 High Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• RES 3: 134.080 High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 133.390 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 132.590 High Mar 9
• PRICE: 131.870 @ 05:14 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 131.812 61.8% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 rally
• SUP 2: 131.726 76.4% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 rally
• SUP 3: 130.780 Low Feb 23
• SUP 4: 130.410 Low Feb 8 and a key support

Bobl futures traded lower again yesterday, extending the retracement from Monday’s high of 134.080. Support at 132.130, the Mar 1 low, has been breached and this suggests potential for a continuation lower. The focus is on 131.812 and 131.726, Fibonacci retracement levels. A strong rebound would ease the near-term bearish pressure and refocus attention on key resistance at 134.080, Mar 7 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Remains Below Monday’s High

• RES 4: 112.300 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 112.210 High Mar 7 and short-term key resistance
• RES 2: 112.015 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 111.850 High Mar 9
• PRICE: 111.630 @ 05:20 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 111.590 Low Mar 9
• SUP 2: 111.435 Low Feb 28
• SUP 3: 111.240 Low Feb 23
• SUP 4: 111.145 Low Feb 4 and a key support

Schatz futures remain below Monday’s high and traded lower again yesterday. The pullback is, for now, considered corrective although the break of support at 111.655, Mar 3 low suggests potential for a deeper pullback. This has opened 111.435, the Feb 28 low. On the upside, a recovery would signal the end of this week’s move lower and refocus attention on key resistance at 112.210.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Clears Support

• RES 4: 126.81 High Mar 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 125.85 High Mar 4
• RES 2: 124.60 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 123.52 High Mar 9
• PRICE: 122.32 @ Close Mar 9
• SUP 1: 122.04 Low Feb 23
• SUP 2: 121.10 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 120.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 119.75 123.6% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb

Gilt futures traded lower Wednesday to again confirm an extension of the pullback from the recent high of 126.81 on Mar 1. The contract has breached support at 123.50, Mar 1 low and 122.47, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb 16 - Mar 1 rally. This has exposed the key support at 121.10, Feb 16 low. On the upside, a strong rebound would ease the bearish threat. Initial firm resistance is seen at $124.60, the Mar 8 high.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Approaching Support

• RES 4: 149.22 High Dec 22 2021 (cont)
• RES 3: 147.93 High Jan 31 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 146.74 High Mar 1
• RES 1: 145.06 High Mar 8
• PRICE: 142.91 @ Close Mar 9
• SUP 1: 142.51 Low Mar 1 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 141.71 61.8% retracement of the Feb 16 - Mar 1 rally
• SUP 3: 140.52 76.4% retracement of the Feb 16 - Mar 1 rally
• SUP 4: 138.60 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger

BTP futures remain below recent highs. The short-term outlook still appears bullish following strong gains on Mar 3 as the contract extended the retracement of the Jan 31 - Feb 16 downleg. Price has breached 145.73, 76.4% of the Jan 31 - Feb 16 downleg. This has opened 147.93 next, the Jan 31 high. Firm support is seen at 142.51, the Mar 3 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper pullback.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (M2): Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 3: 4578.50 High Feb 9 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4431.95-day EMA
• RES 1: 4335.19 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4257.75 @ 06:52 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 4094.25 Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: 4029.25 Low May 13 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3983.25 1.00 proj of the Jan 4 - 24 - Feb 9 price swing

E-Mini S&P futures traded higher Wednesday however despite these gains, the contract remains vulnerable. Key support lies at 4094.25, the Feb 24 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. The 20-day EMA, at 4335.19, represents an important near-term resistance. Price has recently failed to hold above this EMA. A clear break of it though would suggest scope for a stronger corrective bounce.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Bullish Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 4250.00 High Feb 2
• RES 3: 4119.50 High Feb 21
• RES 2: 4012.30 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3850.60 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 3751.50 @ 06:28 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 3546.00/3380.00 Low Mar 9 / Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3379.00 Low Dec 21 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 3318.60 2.382 proj of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 3246.30 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Nov ‘21 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain vulnerable however a bullish corrective cycle dominates for now following this week’s gains. The move higher is allowing an oversold condition to unwind. Resistance to watch is at 3850.60, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this EMA would suggest scope for a stronger recovery with the 50-day EMA at 4012.30. The latter EMA is a key resistance. The broader trend direction remains down, the bear trigger is 3380.00.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K2) Watching The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $144.62 - 4.00 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 3: $140.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $139.13 - High Mar 7
• RES 1: $117.73 50.0% retracement of Wednesday’s range
• PRICE: $113.58 @ 05:43 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: $104.23 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $98.30 - Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: $93.45 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $92.75 - Low Feb 25

Brent futures have traded in an extremely wide range this week, touching a high of $139.19 Monday and a low Wednesday of $105.60. From a trend perspective, the direction remains up. This week’s pullback is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Key support is seen firstly at $104.23, the 20-day EMA and below that at $93.45, the 50-day EMA. A convincing break of the 50-day EMA is required to threaten the uptrend.

WTI TECHS: (J2) Overbought Condition Unwinding

• RES 4: $135.61 - 3.764 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 3: $132.75 - 3.618 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 2: $130.50 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $115.24 - 50.0% of yesterday’s range
• PRICE: $109.07 @ 06:13 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: $101.80 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $95.32 - Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: $91.72 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $90.06 - Low Feb 23 and a key support

WTI futures remain in a clear uptrend although yesterday’s sharp sell-off signals potential for a deeper short-term pullback. This would allow the recent overbought trend condition to unwind. The next firm area of support is seen at the 20-day EMA, at $101.80. A clear breach of this average would open the 50-day EMA further out at $91.72. On the upside, the key resistance and bull trigger is Monday’s $130.50 high.

GOLD TECHS: All-Time High Intact For Now

• RES 4: $2119.3 - 3.382 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: $2104.6 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: $2075.5 - High Aug 7 2020 and the all-time high
• RES 1: $2070.4 - High Mar 8
• PRICE: $1983.4 @ 06:10 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: $1961.2 - Low Mar 7
• SUP 2: $1926.1 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1901.5 - Low Mar 1
• SUP 4: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24 and key short-term support

The all-time high print in Gold of $2075.5 on Aug 7 2020 remains intact for now following yesterday's strong sell-off. The broader trend condition remains bullish and the pullback is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. The next support is seen at $1961.2, Mar 7 low, while a firmer area of support lies at $1926.1, the 20-day EMA. On the upside, a resumption of strength would once again refocus attention on $2075.50.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Outlook Remain Bullish

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $27.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $26.943 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $25.548 @ 08:08 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: $24.866 - Low Mar 2
• SUP 2: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 3: $23.983 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $22.863/008 - Low Feb 11 / Low Feb 3 and key S/T support

Silver remains in an uptrend despite yesterday’s move low. The metal traded to a fresh cycle high Tuesday to confirm a resumption of its current bull cycle. Price has cleared resistance at $25.406, the Nov 16 2021 high and has this week breached the $26.00 handle. An extension higher would pave the way for strength towards $27.00 next and $27.245, the Jun 17 2021 high. Initial support is seen at $24.866, the Mar 2 low.