MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equity Futures on Cusp of Bullish Break

Price Signal Summary – Equity Futures on Cusp of Bullish Break

• S&P E-minis remain in an uptrend and the contract is trading closer to its early April highs. Price has recently breached resistance at 4119.50, Mar 6 high, reinforcing a bullish theme. The move higher has also resulted in a break of 4148.48, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg. Eurostoxx 50 futures maintained a firmer tone Tuesday and the contract traded to a fresh trend high of 4299.00. Price has recently breached resistance at 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a key hurdle for bulls.
• EURUSD maintains a bullish tone and the recent pullback appears to be a correction. Resistance at 1.0930, the Mar 23 high, has been breached. This level marked a key short-term hurdle for bulls and the clear break reinstates the recent bull theme and signals scope for 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. USDJPY is holding on to its recent gains. The latest recovery in price is considered corrective and the next key short-term resistance to watch is 134.75, a Fibonacci retracement. AUDUSD has recently failed to remain above the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 0.6737 and marks a key short-term resistance. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bullish condition and open 0.6824, the Feb 24 high.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and last week’s resumption of the uptrend reinforces current conditions - the yellow metal cleared former resistance at 2009.7, the Mar 20 high, to post fresh YTD highs and signal scope for a climb towards $2034.0 next. WTI futures remain in a bull cycle and last week’s gain strengthened this current condition. The contract touched a high of $81.81 on Apr 4, above key resistance at $81.04, the Mar 7 high. A clear break of $81.04 would signal scope for a continuation higher and open $83.04, the Jan 23 high.
• Bund futures traded lower Tuesday and the contract remains below last week’s high of 138.09 (Apr 6). Price is through the 20-day EMA, at 135.99 and a continuation lower would expose 134.70, the Mar 31 low and a bear trigger. A short-term bearish threat in Gilt futures remains present - recent weakness resulted in a breach of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.87 and price is once again trading below this average. The latest move lower has exposed 102.74.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 3: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022
• RES 2: 1.1033 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.0938/0973 High Apr 6 / 4
• PRICE: 1.0928 @ 05:49 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 1.0834 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0788 Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: 1.0755 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0631 Low Mar 20

EURUSD maintains a bullish tone and the recent pullback appears to be a correction. Resistance at 1.0930, the Mar 23 high, has been breached. This level marked a key short-term hurdle for bulls and the clear break reinstates the recent bull theme and signals scope for 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.0834, remains intact and the 50-day EMA intersects at 1.0755. A clear break of these two averages would be bearish.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Direction Remains Up

• RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27 2022
• RES 3: 1.2656 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2599 High Jun 7 2022
• RES 1: 1.2487/1.2525 High Apr 6 / 4 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2437 @ 06:07 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 1.2345 Low Apr 10
• SUP 2: 1.2324 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
• SUP 4: 1.2217 50-day EMA

GBPUSD remains in an uptrend and the recent move lower is considered corrective. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of 1.2448, the Jan 23 high and the top of a broad 3.5 months range. The break marks an important medium-term development signalling the next stage of the uptrend that started Sep 26 2022. The focus is on 1.2656, the top of a MA envelope study. The bull trigger is 1.2525, Apr 4 high. Support is at 1.2324, 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8880 61.8 retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8861/66 Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high / High Mar 23
• RES 1: 0.8791/0.8829 20-day EMA / High Mar 30
• PRICE: 0.8786 @ 06:20 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 0.8729 Low Apr 4
• SUP 2: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.8691 Low Dec 19

EURGBP is unchanged. The cross maintains a softer tone following last week’s low print of 0.8729 on Apr 4. Attention is on support at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and signal scope for a deeper pullback, exposing 0.8691, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 0.8829, the Mar 30 high, where a break would reinstate a bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle extends

• RES 4: 135.96 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 3: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 2: 134.75 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 1: 134.05 Intraday high
• PRICE: 133.76 @ 06:31 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 131.83/130.64 Low Apr 10 / 5
• SUP 2: 129.64 Low Mar 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 128.09 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and key support

USDJPY is holding on to its recent gains. The latest recovery in price is considered corrective and the next key short-term resistance to watch is 134.75, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would strengthen the current bull cycle. On the downside, a reversal lower would signal the end of the corrective phase and attention would turn to support at 130.64, the Apr 5 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Clears Resistance

• RES 4: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 3: 147.10 High Nov 9 2022
• RES 2: 146.73 High Dec 15
• RES 1: 145.38 Intraday high
• PRICE: 146.12 @ 07:16 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 144.88 Low Apr 11
• SUP 2: 143.94 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 143.14 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 142.55 Low Apr 6

EURJPY traded higher yesterday and the cross is firmer again today with price trading above the 146.00 handle. The climb has confirmed a clear break of resistance at 145.57, Mar 2 high. This strengthens a bullish condition and paves the way for gains towards 146.73, the Dec 15 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition highlighting an uptrend. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 142.55, the Apr 6 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 2: 0.6793 High Apr 4 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6697/6737 20- and 50- day EMA values
• PRICE: 0.6657 @ 07:55 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 0.6620 Low Apr 10
• SUP 2: 0.6590 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 0.6565/47 Low Mar 10 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

AUDUSD has recently failed to remain above the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 0.6737 and marks a key short-term resistance. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bullish condition and open 0.6824, the Feb 24 high. On the downside, key short-term support to watch lies at 0.6625, the Mar 24 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would highlight a stronger bearish reversal leaving support at 0.6565 exposed, the Mar 10 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.3745 High Mar 27
• RES 3: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 2: 1.3617 High Mar 29
• RES 1: 1.3562 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3456 @ 08:05 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 1.3404 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally
• SUP 2: 1.3358 Low Feb 16
• SUP 3: 1.3334 Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: 1.3262 Low Feb 2 and a key support

The outlook in USDCAD remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and 1.3562, 50% of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally. The move lower signals scope for an extension and note that 1.3491 was cleared on Apr 3, the 61.8% retracement. The break opens 1.3404, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3562, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Trades Through The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 139.54 High Mar 24
• RES 1: 136.88/138.09 High Apr 11 / 6 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 135.86 @ 05:26 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 135.71/134.70 Low Apr 11 / Low Mar 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 134.15 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 133.33 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 132.70 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally

Bund futures traded lower Tuesday and the contract remains below last week’s high of 138.09 (Apr 6). Price is through the 20-day EMA, at 135.99 and a continuation lower would expose 134.70, the Mar 31 low and a bear trigger. For bulls, a move above 138.09 is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme and this would signal scope for gains above the 138.00 handle. Key resistance is still far off at 140.30, the Mar 20 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Retracement Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 120.610 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 120.130 High Mar 24
• RES 2: 119.307 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• RES 1: 118.420/119.190 High Apr 11 / High Mar 27
• PRICE: 117.970 @ 05:44 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 117.890/200 Low Apr 11 / Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 116.982 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 116.370 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 116.125 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally

Bobl futures traded lower Tuesday but the contract remains above support at 117.200, the Mar 31 low. The short-term outlook appears bullish and a resumption of gains would open 119.307, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, note that the contract has traded through support at the 20-day EMA - 118.018. An extension lower would expose the bear trigger at 117.200 where a break would be bearish.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 106.695 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 106.315 High Mar 27
• RES 2: 106.190 High Apr 6 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 105.950 High Apr 11
• PRICE: 105.715 @ 05:58 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 105.650/105.465 Low Apr 11 / Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 105.336 61.8% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally

Schatz futures traded lower Tuesday, however, price remains above the recent low of 105.465 (Mar 31). The contract has traded below support at the 20-day EMA - at 105.776. A continuation lower would expose 105.465 and a break of this bear trigger would strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, clearance of 106.190, the Apr 6 high, is required to reinstate a recent bullish theme.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Move Lower Exposes Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 107.33 High Mar 20
• RES 3: 106.25 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• RES 2: 105.62 High Mar 27
• RES 1: 103.87/104.97 20-day EMA / High Apr 6
• PRICE: 103.22 @ Close Apr 11
• SUP 1: 103.05/102.74 Low Apr 11 / Low Mar 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 102.31 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally
• SUP 3: 102.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 101.12 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally

A short-term bearish threat in Gilt futures remains present - recent weakness resulted in a breach of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.87 and price is once again trading below this average. The latest move lower has exposed 102.74, the Mar 20 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this level would open 102.31 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial key resistance is seen at 104.97, the Apr 6 high.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Pullback Considered Corrective - For Now

• RES 4: 118.56 High Jan 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 115.81/116.97 High Apr 11 / 6
• PRICE: 115.04 @ Close Apr 11
• SUP 1: 114.86/114.04 Low Apr 11 / Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 113.71 50.0% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 113.22 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 112.89 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally

BTP futures have failed to hold on to last week’s high of 116.97 (Apr 6). Despite the latest pullback, the short-term outlook appears bullish. However, note that price has traded through support at 115.11, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would highlight a bearish threat and expose support at 114.04, the Mar 31 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 117.17, the Mar 24 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 3: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4324.50 High Jan 13 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 4275.00 @ 06:21 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 4229.00 Low Apr 5
• SUP 2: 4190.60 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4139.80 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4034.00 Low Mar 24 and a key support

Eurostoxx 50 futures maintained a firmer tone Tuesday and the contract traded to a fresh trend high of 4299.00. Price has recently breached resistance at 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a key hurdle for bulls. The break of this level strengthens bullish conditions with sights on gains above 4300.00. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a broader uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 4190.60, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 2: 4205.50 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 4171.75 High Apr 4
• PRICE: 4138.75 @ 06:49 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 4079.43 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4053.89 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3980.75 Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: 3937.00 Low Mar 24

S&P E-minis remain in an uptrend and the contract is trading closer to its early April highs. Price has recently breached resistance at 4119.50, Mar 6 high, reinforcing a bullish theme. The move higher has also resulted in a break of 4148.48, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg. This signals scope for an extension to 4205.50, the Feb 16 high ahead of 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and a key M/T resistance. Firm support lies at 4053.89, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M3) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $90.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $88.35 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $87.87 - High Jan 27
• RES 1: $86.44 - High Apr 3
• PRICE: $85.79 @ 06:55 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: $82.57 - 23.6% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 3 uptrend
• SUP 2: $79.95 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $78.25 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 3 uptrend
• SUP 4: $76.32 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 3 uptrend

Brent futures remain firm following last week’s gains and print above resistance at $86.17, the Mar 7 high. The move higher confirmed an extension of the recent recovery that started from the Mar 20 low. A clear break of $86.17 would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a climb towards $88.35, the Jan 23 high. A large gap exists on the daily chart - key support lies at $79.95, the Mar 31 high and the gap low.

WTI TECHS: (K3) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $87.48 - High Nov 7 2022
• RES 3: $85.01 - High Nov 14
• RES 2: $83.04 - High Jan 23 and key resistance
• RES 1: $81.81 - High Apr 4
• PRICE: $81.67 @ 06:58 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: $77.69 - 23.6% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 4 rally
• SUP 2: $75.72 - High Mar 31 and a gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $72.19 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $70.98 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 3 rally

WTI futures remain in a bull cycle and last week’s gain strengthened this current condition. The contract touched a high of $81.81 on Apr 4, above key resistance at $81.04, the Mar 7 high. A clear break of $81.04 would signal scope for a continuation higher and open $83.04, the Jan 23 high. Key support is seen at $75.72, the Mar 31 high and a gap low on the daily chart. A pullback, if seen, would be considered corrective.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Price Sequence

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $2034.0 - 2.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 rally from Feb 28
• RES 1: $2032.1 - High Apr 5
• PRICE: $2016.6 @ 07:21 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: $1977.0/1967.4 - Low Apr 4 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1934.3 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: $1919.6 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and last week’s resumption of the uptrend reinforces current conditions - the yellow metal cleared former resistance at 2009.7, the Mar 20 high, to post fresh YTD highs and signal scope for a climb towards $2034.0 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key support has been defined at $1934.3, the Mar 22 low - a break would highlight a potential reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $26.002 - High Apr 19 2022
• RES 1: $25.424 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $23.319 @ 08:12 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: $24.566 - Low Apr 6
• SUP 2: $23.765 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $22.944 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $22.157- Low Mar 21

Silver remains firm and the metal continues to appreciate, reinforcing the uptrend. The recent break of resistance at $24.637, the Feb 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull trend that started early September 2022. The focus is on $26.002 next, the Apr 19 2022 high. On the downside, a key support is seen at $23.765, the 20-day EMA. The trend is overbought, a pullback would be considered corrective.