MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equity Outlook Remains Soft Despite Monday Recovery

Price Signal Summary – Equity Sentiment Remains Soft Despite Monday Recovery

• S&P E-Minis remain soft despite the recovery from yesterday’s low. The outlook is bearish following last week’s reversal and break of a key short-term support at 3900.00, the Sep 7 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain soft following the reversal last week from 3678.00, the Jun 13 high. Yesterday’s recovery from the day low is considered corrective. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on a key short-term support at 3423.00, the Sep 5 low.
• A bearish threat in AUDUSD remains present and attention is on support. The pair traded lower last week and breached 0.6699, the Sep 7 low. The focus is on support at 0.6682, Jul 14 low, which was pierced Friday. GBPUSD trend conditions remain bearish. The reversal lower last week reinforces bearish conditions. A bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs highlights a broader bear cycle and signals scope for a continuation. USDJPY continues to consolidate and importantly for bulls, closer to its recent highs. Trend readings still point north with key short-term resistance at 144.99, Sep 7 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 145.28 and 146.03, Fibonacci projections.
• Gold remains in a clear downtrend and last week’s extension lower reinforces this theme. The move lower has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started early March - price has cleared support at $1681.0, the Jul 21 low. A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and yesterday’s bounce is considered corrective. The recent break of support at $85.37, the Aug 16 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 8 and also highlights the end of a broad sideways move that has been in place since mid-July.
• Bund futures remain in a bear mode and traded to a fresh trend low Friday, of 142.15. The contract continues to retrace the bull leg between Jun 16 - Aug 2 and a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact. Gilt futures are consolidating but the trend outlook remains bearish. The bearish impulsive run that started early August signals scope for a continuation. The breach on Aug 30 of 108.94, Aug 24 low, confirmed a resumption of the current downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Remains Below Channel Resistance

• RES 4: 1.0368 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0327 High Aug 12
• RES 2: 1.0198/0249 High Sep 12 / 76.4% of Aug 10 - Sep 6 downleg
• RES 1: 1.0096 Bear channel top drawn from the Feb 10 high
• PRICE: 1.0023 @ 06:06 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 0.9945 Low Sep 16
• SUP 2: 0.9864 Low Sep 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.9800 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.9785 2.00 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD gains are considered corrective. The pair remains vulnerable following the Sep 13 reversal and price remains inside the bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top intersects at 1.0096 and marks a key resistance. A close above it would highlight a stronger reversal and a channel breakout. The trend remains down and moving average studies are in bear mode condition. The bear trigger is 0.9864, the Sep 6 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Still Point South

• RES 4: 1.2004 Low Aug 5
• RES 3: 1.1827 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.1783 High Aug 29
• RES 1: 1.1610/1738 20-day EMA / High Sep 13 and key resistance
• PRICE: 1.1429 @ 06:14 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 1.1351 Low Sep 16
• SUP 2: 1.1324 1.50 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1300 Round number support
• SUP 4: 1.1248 1.618 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing

GBPUSD trend conditions remain bearish. The reversal lower last week reinforces bearish conditions. A bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs highlights a broader bear cycle and signals scope for a continuation. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode set-up too. Key support at 1.1412, Mar 20 2020 low has been cleared. This strengthens bearish conditions and opens 1.1324. Key resistance is 1.1738, Sep 13 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Holding On To Recent Gains

• RES 4: 0.8852 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2022 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8840 High Feb 2
• RES 2: 0.8811 1.236 proj of the Apr 14 - Jun 15 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 1: 0.8788 High Sep 19
• PRICE: 0.8772 @ 06:23 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 0.8715 Low Sep 16
• SUP 2: 0.8634 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8561 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8522 Low Aug 30

EURGBP is holding on to its recent gains and the short-term outlook remains bullish. Last Friday’s gains confirmed a break of key resistance at 0.8721, the Jun 15 high and an important bull trigger. The climb resumes the bull cycle that started early March and opens 0.8811 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8634, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Signals Still Point North

• RES 4: 147.25 3.00 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 3: 146.52 1.236 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 2: 146.03 2.764 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 1: 144.99/145.28 High Sep 7 / 2.618 proj of Aug 2 - 8 - 11 swing
• PRICE: 143.27 @ 06:31 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 141.51 Low Sep 9
• SUP 2: 141.19 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 139.87 Low Sep 2
• SUP 4: 138.27 50-day EMA

USDJPY continues to consolidate and importantly for bulls, closer to its recent highs. Trend readings still point north with key short-term resistance at 144.99, Sep 7 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 145.28 and 146.03, Fibonacci projections. Initial firm support has been defined at 141.51, Sep 9 low. A strong support also lies at the 20-day EMA, at 141.19. A break of this zone would highlight a short-term top.

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 147.56 2.50 proj of the Aug 2- 10 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 146.97 2.382 proj of the Aug 2- 10 - 16 price swing
• RES 2: 146.23 2.236 proj of the Aug 2- 10 - 16 price swing
• RES 1: 144.48/145.64 High Sep 14 / 9 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 143.61 @ 06:48 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 142.30 Low Sep 14
• SUP 2: 141.50 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 139.89 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 138.69 Low Sep 5

EURJPY is trading below 145.64, the Sep 9 high. The outlook is bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. The break this month of 144.28, Jun 28 high and a major resistance, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started in March 2022. The focus is on 146.23, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is seen at 141.50, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 139.89 - a key support.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.7040 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 0.7009 High Aug 26 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 0.6956 High Aug 30
• RES 1: 0.6806/6916 20-day EMA / High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6722 @ 06:54 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 0.6670 Low Sep 16
• SUP 2 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6612 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 0.6568 Low May 27 2020

A bearish threat in AUDUSD remains present and attention is on support. The pair traded lower last week and breached 0.6699, the Sep 7 low. The focus is on support at 0.6682, Jul 14 low, which was pierced Friday. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend, strengthen bearish conditions and open 0.6647 initially, a Fibonacci projection. The Sep 13 high of 0.6916 marks a key short-term resistance.

USDCAD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 1.3500 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.3462 1.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3421 High Sep 30 2020
• RES 1: 1.3344/3409 High Sep 19 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 1.3257 @ 07:01 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 1.3107/2954 20-day EMA / Low Sep 13
• SUP 3: 1.2895 Low Aug 25 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 1.2828 Low Aug 17

USDCAD traded higher Monday, resuming the rally that started Sep 13. The pullback from yesterday’s high is considered corrective. The recent break of 1.3224, Jul 14 high and bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the broader uptrend. Attention is on 1.3409 next, the upper band of a moving average envelope. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up, highlighting positive market sentiment. Key trend support is at 1.2954.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Theme Intact

• RES 4: 148.97 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 148.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 145.82/146.81 High Sep 8 / High Sep 5
• RES 1: 144.56 High Sep 12
• PRICE: 142.52 @ 05:09 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 142.15 Low Sep 16
• SUP 2: 142.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 140.90 2.764 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing
• SUP 4: 140.67 Low Jun 16 2022 and a key support (cont)

Bund futures remain in a bear mode and traded to a fresh trend low Friday, of 142.15. The contract continues to retrace the bull leg between Jun 16 - Aug 2 and a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact. Moving average studies also highlight a bearish theme. The focus is on the 142.00 handle next. Firm resistance is at 146.81, the Sep 5 high. Gains would be considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Heading South

• RES 4: 124.670 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 124.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 123.160/123.730 High Sep 8 / High Sep 6 and key resistance
• RES 1: 122.510 High Sep 12
• PRICE: 121.090 @ 05:14 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 120.930 Low Sep 16
• SUP 2: 120.358 1.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 3: 119.940 Low Jun 16 and key support (cont)
• SUP 4: 119.782 1.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

The trend needle in Bobl futures still points south. The contract traded lower Friday, extending the current bear cycle and sights are on 120.358, a Fibonacci projection. Futures continue to retrace the mid-June to early August climb. Scope is also seen for a move to 119.940, the Jun 16 major support (cont). On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 122.510, the Sep 12 high. A break would highlight a short-term base.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Fresh Trend Low

• RES 4: 109.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 108.845 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 108.045/570 High Sep 9 / 6 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 107.760 High Sep 15
• PRICE: 107.360 @ 05:21 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 107.330 Low Sep 19
• SUP 2: 107.253 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 2 price swing
• SUP 3: 107.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 107.119 1.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 2 price swing

Schatz futures trend direction remains down and the contract traded to a fresh trend low once again yesterday, confirming an extension of the bear cycle. This also maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs with moving average studies in a bear mode position. The focus is on 107.253, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 108.045, the Sep 9 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 112.43 High Aug 22
• RES 3: 111.54 High Aug 23
• RES 2: 109.47/110.85 High Aug 31 / 26 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 106.84/107.93 High Sep 8 / High Sep 1
• PRICE: 105.24 @ Close Sep 16
• SUP 1: 104.47 Low Sep 14
• SUP 2: 103.87 2.00 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 103.05 2.236 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 102.54 2.382 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing

Gilt futures are consolidating but the trend outlook remains bearish. The bearish impulsive run that started early August signals scope for a continuation. The breach on Aug 30 of 108.94, Aug 24 low, confirmed a resumption of the current downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Attention is on 103.87, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 106.84, the Sep 8 high.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Bears Pause For Breath

• RES 4: 122.59 High Aug 19
• RES 3: 121.32 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 119.06 High Sep 8
• PRICE: 116.41 @ Close Sep 16
• SUP 1: 115.60 Low Sep 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 115.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 113.78 Low Jun 14 and key support
• SUP 4: 112.94 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - 8 price swing

BTP futures continue to consolidate but the trend direction is down and short-term gains are considered corrective. A bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs highlights the current bearish theme as the contract continues to retrace the mid-June - early August rally. The focus is on the 115.00 handle next ahead of the major support at 113.78, Jun 14 low (cont). On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 119.06, the Sep 8 high.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 119-01 High Aug 18
• RES 3: 118-00 High Aug 26
• RES 2: 117-16+ 50 day EMA values
• RES 1: 116-10+/26 20-day EMA / High Sep 2
• PRICE: 114-10 @ 15:45 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 114-07 Low Sep 19
• SUP 2: 114-06 Low Jun 14 and a key support
• SUP 3: 114-00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 113-19 Low Sep 19 2019 (cont)

Treasuries remain soft with the contract trading at its recent lows. Trend signals continue to highlight a bearish theme and sights are on the key support at 114-06, the Jun 14 low. A break of this level would confirm an important technical break and highlight a resumption of the broader downtrend, exposing the 114-00 handle initially. Firm resistance is at 116-26, the Sep 2 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 3810.00 High Aug 17 and key resistance zone
• RES 3: 3753.00 High Aug 19
• RES 2: 3692.00 High Aug 26
• RES 1: 3559.10/3678.00 20-day EMA / High Sep 13 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 3513.00 @ 05:40 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 3443.00/3423.00 Low Sep 19 / Low Sep 5 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3360.00 Low Jul 16
• SUP 3: 3341.00 Low Jul 5
• SUP 4: 3300.00 Round number support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain soft following the reversal last week from 3678.00, the Jun 13 high. Yesterday’s recovery from the day low is considered corrective. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on a key short-term support at 3423.00, the Sep 5 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. 3678.00 is the short-term bull trigger where a break would reinstate a bullish theme.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Bearish Outlook Despite Bounce

• RES 4: 4345.75 High Aug 16 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4313.50 High Aug 18
• RES 2: 4234.25 High Aug 26
• RES 1: 4016.62/4175.00/47 20-day EMA / High Sep 13
• PRICE: 3928.50 @ 06:56 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 3846.25 Low Sep 19
• SUP 2: 3819.54 76.4% retracement of the Jun 17 Aug 16 bull leg
• SUP 3: 3741.75 Low Jul 14
• SUP 4: 3657.00 Low Jun 17 and a major support

S&P E-Minis remain soft despite the recovery from yesterday’s low. The outlook is bearish following last week’s reversal and break of a key short-term support at 3900.00, the Sep 7 low. This confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started mid-August and paves the way for a move towards 3819.54, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 4175.00, the Sep 13 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X2) Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $107.30 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $103.86 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 2: $95.99 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $95.80 - High Sep 14
• PRICE: $92.24 @ 07:06 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: $88.50/87.24 - Low Sep 19 / 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $86.54 - Low Mar 9 and a key support
• SUP 3: $82.59 - 1.618 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 17 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4: $80.71 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 17 - 30 price swing

The Brent futures outlook remains bearish and last Thursday’s move lower reinforces this theme. Yesterday’s recovery from the day low is likely a correction. The recent break of $89.06, Jul 14 low and a bear trigger highlights a resumption of the downtrend that started early August and this has opened $86.54, the Mar 9 low. On the upside firm resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA which intersects at $95.99.

WTI TECHS: (V2) Path Of Least Resistance Remains Down

• RES 4: $105.00 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $99.75 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 2: $90.99/97.66 - 50-day EMA / High Aug 30
• RES 1: $90.19 - High Sep 14
• PRICE: $85.81 @ 07:13 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: $81.20 - Low Sep 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $79.83 - Low Feb 18
• SUP 3: $78.54 - Low Feb 1
• SUP 4: $76.47 - Low Jan 24

A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and yesterday’s bounce is considered corrective. The recent break of support at $85.37, the Aug 16 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 8 and also highlights the end of a broad sideways move that has been in place since mid-July. The focus is on $79.83 next, the Feb 18 low. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at $90.99, the 50-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: $1783.2 - High Aug 16
• RES 3: $1765.5 - High Aug 25 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1740.6 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1688.9/1735.1 - Low Sep 1 / High Sep 12
• PRICE: $1672.8 @ 07:20 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: $1654.2 - Low Sep 16
• SUP 2: $1640.9 - Low Aug 8 2020
• SUP 3: $1610.5 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing
• SUP 4: $1569.1 - Low Apr 1 2020

Gold remains in a clear downtrend and last week’s extension lower reinforces this theme. The move lower has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started early March - price has cleared support at $1681.0, the Jul 21 low. Attention is on $1640.9 next, the Aug 8 2020 low. Key trend resistance has been defined at $1735.1, the Sep 12 high. Initial resistance is at $1688.9, the Sep 1 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Reversal?

• RES 4: $21.967 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 2: $20.876 - High Aug 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $20.014 - High Sep 12
• PRICE: $19.374 @ 08:01 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: $18.782/17.562 - Low Sep 16 / Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 3: $16.473 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 6 - Jul 14 - Aug 10 price swing
• SUP 4: $15.998 - 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull leg

Silver has pulled back from its recent highs. Friday’s print below $18.845, Sep 12 low, signals the end of the recent corrective recovery between Sep 1 - 12. An extension lower would pave the way for a move towards the key support and bear trigger at $17.562, the Sep 1 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. A break of $20.014, Sep 12 high, is required to reinstate a bullish theme.