MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equity Price Action Reinforces Bearish Condition

Price Signal Summary – Equity Price Action Reinforces Bearish Condition

• S&P E-Minis remain in a downtrend. Yesterday’s sell-off has reinforced bearish conditions, despite the recovery from the day low. Support at 4094.25, the Feb 24 low and a major support, has been probed. A clear breach of this level would further strengthen bearish conditions. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are consolidating. The contract remains in a bear mode and recent gains are considered corrective. A bearish theme follows a reversal from the Apr 21 high of 3883.00.
• EURUSD is consolidating and this pause in the trend has taken on the appearance of a bear flag - a bearish continuation pattern. The trend direction remains down and the move to fresh trend lows last week confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence. A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact despite a pullback from last week’s highs. Recent gains have resulted in a break of 0.8405, the Apr 11 high. The breach of this level highlights a bullish development and has also resulted in a move above 0.8435, the Apr 4 high. USDJPY continues to consolidate and this marks a pause in the uptrend. The outlook remains bullish - the rally last Thursday confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The psychological 130.00 handle has been cleared and 131.00 remains exposed.
• Gold remains vulnerable. The yellow metal has recently cleared support at the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, the pullback from $1998.4 (Apr 18 high), continues to highlight a bearish threat. WTI futures remain above the Apr 25 low of $95.28. A triangle pattern has appeared on the daily chart, drawn from the Mar 15 low. This is a bearish pattern and a break of $95.28 would confirm a resumption of weakness
• The trend needle in Bund futures continues to point south. Fresh cycle lows in April, reinforce a bearish theme. The move lower confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. Last week’s breach of the 20-day EMA and a trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 1 high, appeared initially to be a bullish development.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Flag

• RES 4: 1.0936 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0852 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 1.0742/58 20-day EMA / Low Apr 14 - recent breakout level
• RES 1: 1.0655 High Apr 27
• PRICE: 1.0515 @ 05:23 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 1.0472/54 Low Apr 28 / Low Jan 1 2017
• SUP 2: 1.0390 Low Jan 4 2017
• SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0333 1.236 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing

EURUSD is consolidating and this pause in the trend has taken on the appearance of a bear flag - a bearish continuation pattern. The trend direction remains down and the move to fresh trend lows last week confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Further weakness is likely and the focus is on 1.0454 next, the Feb 22 2017 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.0758.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 1.3090 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 1.2974 Low Apr 13 and a recent breakout level
• RES 2: 1.2772/2830 High Apr 26 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2614 High Apr 29
• PRICE: 1.2513 @ 06:07 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 1.2412 Low Apr 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2375 2.382 proj of the Mar 23 - Apr 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2252 Low Jun 29 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2162 Low May 22 2020

GBPUSD is consolidating. The outlook remains bearish following last week’s acceleration of the downtrend. Price has recently cleared 1.2974, Apr 13 low and 1.2676, last printed in September 2020. This has reinforced bearish conditions. The trend remains oversold, however, a reversal pattern is still required to signal a short-term base and a possible reversal. The focus is 1.2423 next, a Fibonacci projection. 1.2614 marks initial resistance.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 0.8600 High Dec 8 2021
• RES 3: 0.8552/53 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Dec 14 2020
• RES 2: 0.8512 High Mar 31 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8433/68 High Apr 29 / High Apr 27
• PRICE: 0.8393 @ 06:17 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 0.8370/67 50-day EMA / Low May 2
• SUP 2: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger

A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact despite a pullback from last week’s highs. Recent gains have resulted in a break of 0.8405, the Apr 11 high. The breach of this level highlights a bullish development and has also resulted in a move above 0.8435, the Apr 4 high. An extension would open 0.8512, the Mar 31 high and the next key resistance point. Firm support to watch lies at 0.8367, Monday’s low and just below the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Pause For Breath

• RES 4: 133.11 High Apr 4 2002
• RES 3: 132.39 High Apr 15 2002
• RES 2: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 131.25 High Apr 28
• PRICE: 130.11 @ 06:31 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 128.34 Low Apr 28
• SUP 2: 126.95 Low Apr 27 and a key support
• SUP 3: 125.09 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 124.01 Low Apr 11

USDJPY continues to consolidate and this marks a pause in the uptrend. The outlook remains bullish - the rally last Thursday confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The psychological 130.00 handle has been cleared and 131.00 remains exposed. The focus is on 131.96 next, a Fibonacci projection. 126.95, the Apr 27 low, represents a key short-term support. A break would signal a possible short-term top.

EURJPY TECHS: Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 141.63 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 140.93 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 8 price swing
• RES 1: 138.00/140.00 High Apr 28 / High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 136.77 @ 06:41 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 134.79/76 Low Apr 27 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: 134.36/30 50-day EMA / Low Apr 5 and a key support
• SUP 3: 132.95 Low Mar 24
• SUP 4: 132.33 Low Mar 23

The recent pullback in EURJPY is still considered corrective. The cross has remained above support highlighted by the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 134.36, just above an important support at 134.30, Apr 5 low. While this 134.36-30 zone holds, the trend condition remains bullish. Initial resistance is at 138.00, last Thursday’s high. The bull trigger is unchanged at 140.00, Apr 21 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.7458 High Apr 20/21 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7379 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 0.7310 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7180/261 High Apr 29 / High Apr 25
• PRICE: 0.7122 @ 05:49 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 0.7030 Low May 2
• SUP 2: 0.6985 Low Jan 31
• SUP 3: 0.6968 Low Jan 28 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6921 Low Jul 14 2020

AUDUSD is trading higher today. Technical signals remain bearish though and short-term gains are considered corrective. The pair has recently cleared support at 0.7165, the Mar 15 low and a former bear trigger. The break reinforces bearish conditions and has also resulted in a breach of 0.7095, the Feb 24 low. This opens 0.6968 next, the Jan 28 low. Resistance is seen at 0.7261, Apr 5 high. Firmer resistance however is at 0.7310, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Its M/T Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 1.3024 38.2% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jun ‘21 downleg
• RES 3: 1.2987 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2964 High Dec 20 2021 and a key bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2914 High May 2
• PRICE: 1.2861 @ 06:49 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 1.2719/2664 Low Apr 29 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2568 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 1.2459 Low Apr 21
• SUP 4: 1.2403 Low Apr 5 and a key support

USDCAD traded higher Monday and probed resistance at 1.2901, the Mar 8 high. The outlook remains bullish and the strong recovery from Friday’s low of 1.2719 reinforces this theme. A clear break of 1.2901 would reinforce bullish conditions and pave the way for a climb towards the Dec 20 2021 high of 1.2964 - a key medium-term bull trigger. On the downside, first support lies at 1.2719.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Trend Needle Continues To Point South

• RES 4: 158.64 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 157.87 High Apr 7
• RES 2: 156.17 High Apr 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 155.56 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 153.61 @ 04:58 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 153.05/153.00 Low Apr 22 / Round number support
• SUP 2: 152.65 Low Sep 1 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 151.99 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 150.15 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing

The trend needle in Bund futures continues to point south. Fresh cycle lows in April, reinforce a bearish theme. The move lower confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, moving average studies remain in a bear mode. Attention is on 153.00 next ahead of 152.65, the Sep 1 2015 low (cont). Firm resistance is unchanged at 156.17, the Apr 14 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Bearish Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: 129.290 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 129.350 High Apr 4 and a reversal point
• RES 2: 128.830 High Apr 7
• RES 1: 128.310 High Apr 8/28 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 127.300 @ 05:15 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 126.660 Low Apr 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.480 Low Jun 5 2014 (cont)
• SUP 3: 126.196 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

Bobl futures remain below last week’s 128.310 high. The pullback from this level signals the end of the recent correction. Fresh cycle lows in April reinforce the primary downtrend, maintaining the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving averages continue to point south. An extension lower would open 126.480 next, Jun 5 2014 low (cont). Key short-term trend resistance is at 128.310, the Apr 14/28 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Bearish Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: 110.877 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 110.855 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 110.660 High Apr 14 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 110.486 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 110.215 @ 05:00 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 110.060 Low Apr 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 110.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 109.983 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 109.777 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing

The trend direction in Schatz futures remains down and short-term gains are considered corrective. The contract traded to fresh cycle lows recently. This confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode. The focus is on 109.983 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is 110.660, the Apr 14 high.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 122.35 High Apr 4
• RES 3: 120.77 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 120.47 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 119.79 High Apr 25 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 118.44 @ Close Apr 29
• SUP 1: 118.27/117.22 Low Apr 25 / Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 117.04 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 116.35 Low Dec 30 2015
• SUP 4: 115.40 1.00 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing

The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. Last week’s breach of the 20-day EMA and a trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 1 high, appeared initially to be a bullish development. Price has instead failed to hold on to recent gains, signalling the end of a correction higher. Resistance has been defined at 119.79, Apr 26 high where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme. An extension lower would expose the 117.22 bear trigger.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Fresh Cycle low

• RES 4: 136.90 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 136.12 High Apr 7
• RES 2: 135.23 High Apr 14
• RES 1: 133.3953/77 20-day EMA / High Apr 28
• PRICE: 129.78 @ Close May 2
• SUP 1: 129.50 Low May 2
• SUP 2: 128.08 2.00 proj of the Mar 31 - Feb 16 - Mar 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 127.63 1.00 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 125.88 2.236 proj of the Mar 31 - Feb 16 - Mar 1 price swing

The trend condition in BTP futures remains bearish - yesterday’s move lower resulted in another fresh trend low print. This maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that defines a downtrend. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too and the focus is on 128.08 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term resistance has been defined at 133.53, the Apr 28 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Bearish Price Structure

• RES 4: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 3: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 3798.50/3883.00 50-day EMA / High Apr 21
• PRICE: 3717.00 @ 06:40 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 3608.00 Low Apr 27
• SUP 2: 3551 60 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 3: 3523.00 Low Mar 11
• SUP 4: 3458.90 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are consolidating. The contract remains in a bear mode and recent gains are considered corrective. A bearish theme follows a reversal from the Apr 21 high of 3883.00. Price is trading below the 50-day EMA and last week’s breach of support at 3684.00, Apr 12 low and a bear trigger, reinforces a bearish condition. A resumption of weakness would open 3551.60, a Fibonacci retracement. Resistance is at 3883.00, Apr 21 high.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Probes Key Support

• RES 4: 4631.00 High Mar 29 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4588.75 High Apr 5
• RES 2: 4509.00 High Apr 21 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4303.50/4355.50 High Apr 26/28 / Low Apr 18
• PRICE: 4164.50 @ 06:50 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 4056.00 Low May 2
• SUP 2: 4063.24 1.618 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 4029.25 High May 13 2021
• SUP 4: 4000.00 Psychological round number

S&P E-Minis remain in a downtrend. Yesterday’s sell-off has reinforced bearish conditions, despite the recovery from the day low. Support at 4094.25, the Feb 24 low and a major support, has been probed. A clear breach of this level would further strengthen bearish conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear mode once again, highlighting current bearish sentiment. Firm short-term resistance is at 4303.5.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N2) Remains Inside Its Triangle

• RES 4: $121.13 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 15 downleg
  
• RES 3: $115.76 - High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $113.61 - High Apr 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: $110.00/112.13 - High Apr 29 / Triangle resistance
• PRICE: $107.50 @ 06:56 BST May 3
• SUP 1: $99.25 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: $97.18 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 3: $92.59 - Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: $89.01 - Low Feb 25

Brent futures are trading closer to recent highs and remain above the low of $99.25 from Apr 25. A bearish threat remains present despite recent gains. The contract is trading inside a triangle, drawn from the Mar 15 low. This is a bearish pattern. A break below $99.25 would highlight a triangle breakout and expose $97.18, the Apr 11 low, and $92.59, the Mar 15 low. Triangle resistance intersects at $112.13 today.

WTI TECHS: (M2) Triangle Still Highlights Bearish Threat

• RES 4: $118.13 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $113.51/113.90 - High Mar 24 / 76.4% of Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $109.20 - High Apr 18
• RES 1: $106.24/107.99 - Triangle resistance / High Apr 29
• PRICE: $105.13 @ 07:09 BST May 3
• SUP 1: $99.80/95.28 - Low Apr 27 / Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: $92.60 - Low Apr 11 and a key support
• SUP 3: $90.37 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $86.67 - Low Feb 25

WTI futures remain above the Apr 25 low of $95.28. A triangle pattern has appeared on the daily chart, drawn from the Mar 15 low. This is a bearish pattern and a break of $95.28 would confirm a resumption of weakness and expose $92.60, Apr 11 low, and $90.37, the Mar 15 low and a key bear trigger. Triangle resistance intersects at $106.24 ahead of a key resistance at $109.20, Apr 18 high. A clear breach of these hurdles would be bullish.

GOLD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $2001.6 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 3: $1998.4 - High Apr 18 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $1958.4 - High Apr 20
• RES 1: $1900.0/1922.5 - High May 2 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1860.7 @ 07:16 BST May 3
• SUP 1: $1854.7 - Low May 2
• SUP 2: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11
• SUP 4: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28

Gold remains vulnerable. The yellow metal has recently cleared support at the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, the pullback from $1998.4 (Apr 18 high), continues to highlight a bearish threat. This was reinforced last week by the break of support at $1890.2, the Mar 29 low, and price traded lower again yesterday. The move lower opens $1848.8, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, $1922.5, the 20-day EMA is seen as a firm short-term resistance.

SILVER TECHS: Eyeing Key Support

• RES 4: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 3: $26.943 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $24.410 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $22.601 @ 07:24 BST May 3
• SUP 1: $22.123 - Low May 2
• SUP 2: $22.008 - Low Feb 3 and a key support
• SUP 3: $21.949 - Low Jan 7 2022
• SUP 4: $21.427 - Low Dec 15

Silver remains soft following the recent reversal from $26.222, the Apr 18 high. Last week’s continuation lower, and yesterday’s fresh low, has also reinforced bearish conditions. Support at $23.974, Mar 29 low and $23.173, 76.4% of the Feb 3 - Mar 8 rally, have been cleared. The clear break of the latter has opened $22.008, the Feb 3 low and the next key support. The 50-day EMA, at $24.410, marks resistance.