MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equity Uptrend Intact, ES Strikes New ATH

Price Signal Summary - ESU1 Strikes New ATH

• In the equity space, conditions have improved for bulls. S&P E-minis found support at Monday's low and importantly, the 50-day EMA contained the recent corrective pullback. The contract is topped the bull trigger at 4384.50, Jul 14 high, striking a new record level in the process. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are similarly firm as the contract extends the recovery from 3895.00, Jul 19 low and a pivotal short-term support. Watch resistance at 4101.50, Jul 1 high.
• In FX, the USD outlook remains bullish. EURUSD focus is on 1.1704, Mar 31 low and a key support. GBPUSD has recovered from Tuesday's low of 1.3572. Gains are still considered corrective with resistance at 1.3813, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY is trading above Monday's low and is firmer today. This week's low print of 109.07 did confirm a resumption of the downtrend paving the way for an extension lower. The focus is on 108.47, 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally. Watch resistance is at 110.70, Jul 14 high. A break would be a bullish development.
• On the commodity front, Gold is consolidating and maintains a bullish tone. Key short-term support is at $1791.7, Jul 12 low. A break of this level would however be bearish. Brent (U1) is testing $73.87, 61.8% of the Jul 6 - 20 downleg. A clear breach would open $75.39, the 76.4% level. WTI (U1) is holding on this week's gains. An extension would open $73.46, 76% of the Jul 6 - 20 downleg.
• Within FI, Bund futures remain firm following this week's break of 174.77, Jul 8 high. Sights are on 176.30, 76.4% of the Dec '20 - May sell-off (cont). Gilts remain in a bullish condition despite the recent pullback. The break of 129.92, Jul 8 high opens 130.72, 2.236 projection of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing. We are still monitoring a bearish candle pattern, an evening star reversal. A deeper pullback would expose support at 128.54, low Jul 14.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Consolidating But Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.2006 High Jun 29 / Jun 17
• RES 3: 1.1975 High Jun 25
• RES 2: 1.1929/30 50-day EMA / High Jun 29
• RES 1: 1.1851/1881 High Jul 15 / High Jul 9
• PRICE: 1.1777 @ 06:06 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 1.1752 Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 1.1738 Low Apr 5
• SUP 3: 1.1704 Low Mar 31 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD is unchanged and consolidating. The trend direction remains down and price is holding below first resistance at 1.1851. A bearish price sequence of lower lows and lows and lower highs remains intact highlighting a clear bearish theme. Note too, the formation of a death cross (50- breaking below the 200-dma) that also highlights a bearish threat. A break of 1.1704 would trigger a deeper pullback. Initial resistance is at 1.1851, Jul 15 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Holding Onto Recent Corrective Gains

• RES 4: 1.4074 Low Jun 10
• RES 3: 1.4001 High Jun 23 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3806/3887 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3790 High Jul 19
• PRICE: 1.3755 @ 06:21 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 1.3691/3572 Low Jul 22 / Low Jul 20
• SUP 2: 1.3520/3493 Low Jan 18 / 2.0%10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.3452 Low Jan 11
• SUP 4: 1.3430 Low Dec 28, 2020

GBPUSD is trading near recent highs. A bearish trend structure remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. The break on Jul 20 of 1.3669, Apr 12 low reinforces a bearish theme and moving average studies continue to point south. The pair has recently tested 1.3579, 38.2% of the Mar '20 - Jun rally. An extension lower would open 1.3520, Jan 18 low. The 2.0% 10-dma envelope intersects at 1.3493. Initial resistance is at 1.3790.

EURGBP TECHS: Eyeing Key Support

• RES 4: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.8672 High May 25
• RES 2: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and 76.4% of the Apr - Jul bearish phase
• RES 1: 0.8590 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8564 @ 06:25 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 0.8541 Low Jul 22
• SUP 2: 0.8504 Low Jul 14 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8485/72 1% 10-dma envelope / Low Apr 5
• SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020

EURGBP traded lower in the second half of last week, following a reversal from the Jul 20 high. The sharp move lower places on hold a recent bullish focus and instead attention turns to support at 0.8504, the Jul 14 low and a near-term bear trigger. A break of this support would reinstate a bearish theme and open 0.8472, the Apr 5 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 0.8670, the Jul 20 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 111.71 High Mar 24, 2020
• RES 3: 111.66 High Jul 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 110.70/82 High Jul 14/ High Jul 7
• RES 1: 110.59 High Jul 23
• PRICE: 110.30 @ 06:30 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 109.80/07 Low Jul 21 / Low Jul 19
• SUP 2: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 3: 108.47/34 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally / Low May 7
• SUP 4: 108.08 Low Apr 27

USDJPY traded higher last week. Gains are considered corrective and a bearish risk remains present. This follows the Jul 19 break of support at 109.53, Jul 8 low. The move lower resumes the reversal from early July and paves the way for an extension lower. Note that support at 109.19 has also been breached, Jun 7 low. Attention is on 108.47, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm resistance is seen at 110.70, Jul 14 high, a break would alter the picture.

EURJPY TECHS: Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 132.70 High Jun 23
• RES 3: 132.43 High Jul 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 131.09/17 High Jul 13 / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 130.30/43 High Jul 22 / High Jul 14
• PRICE: 129.92 @ 06:41 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 128.60 Low Jul 20
• SUP 2: 128.51 200-dma
• SUP 3: 128.29 Low Mar 24 and key support
• SUP 4: 127.88 38.2% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jun rally

The EURJPY trend condition remains bearish and attention is on the 200-dma at 128.51. A clear break of this average would reinforce the current bearish theme and signal scope for a continued depreciation. Note, momentum and moving average studies remain bearish too. Potential is seen for a move towards 127.88, the 38.2% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jun rally. 130.30, Jul 22 high marks initial firm resistance.

AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 0.7534 High Jul 7
• RES 3: 0.7503 High Ju13
• RES 2: 0.7447 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7429 High Jul 19
• PRICE: 0.7348 @ 06:46 BST Jul 26
• SUP 2: 0.7290 Low Jul 21
• SUP 3: 0.7284/53 Low Nov 24, 2020 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.7235 1.382 proj of Feb 25 - Apr 1 - May 10 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.7222 Low Nov 13, 2020

The AUDUSD outlook is bearish. This follows the recent breach of a channel drawn from the Feb 25 high and despite the fact that price bounced back into the channel area, the move lower marks an important short-term technical break. Scope is for weakness towards 0.7235 next, a 1.236 projection of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 - May 10 price swing. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is at 0.7429, Jul 19 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Conditions Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 1.2916 1.382 proj of Jun 1 - 21- 23 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2881 High Jan 28
• RES 2: 1.2807/46 High Jul 19 / 1.236 proj of Jun 1 - 21- 23 swing
• RES 1: 1.2730 High Jul 20
• PRICE: 1.2578 @ 06:52 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 1.2526 Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 1.2502/2428 Low Jul 15 / Low Jul 14
• SUP 3: 1.2303/2253 Low Jul 6 / Low Jun 23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2157 Low Jun 16

Despite the strong move lower last week, the USDCAD outlook remains bullish. On Jul 16, the pair cleared resistance at 1.2590, Jul 8 high. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Jun 1. Moving average conditions are in a bull mode too, reinforcing the current trend direction. The focus is on 1.2846, a Fibonacci projection and 1.2881, the Jan 28 high. On the downside, watch support is at 1.2502.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Bullish Tone Remains Intact

• RES 4: 176.64 High Feb 11 (cont)
• RES 3: 176.38 1.382 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 2: 176.30 76.4% retracement of the Dec '20 - May sell-off (cont)
• RES 1: 176.28 High Jul 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 176.04 @ 05:13 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 175.24 Low Jul 22
• SUP 2: 174.77/45 High Jul 8 / Low Jul 15
• SUP 3: 173.70 LowJul 13 and 14
• SUP 4: 173.36 50-day EMA

Bund futures remain in their recent range. A bullish tone remains intact though. Price is trading above former resistance of 174.77, Jul 8 high. The recent break of this level confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and marked a bullish breakout of the rising channel drawn off the May 19 low. Attention is on 176.38, a Fibonacci projection. Note that momentum is overbought and this is being monitored. Initial support is at 175.24.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Still Climbing

• RES 4: 135.350 High Apr 8 (cont)
• RES 3: 135.313 2.236 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 135.160 2.00 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 135.150 Intraday high
• PRICE: 135.130 @ 05:21 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 134.900 Low Jul 22
• SUP 2: 134.710/629 High Jul 8 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 134.443 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 134.410 Low Jul 13 and a key support

Bobl futures have edged higher today with a bullish theme dominating. The contract on Jul 8 cleared a key short-term resistance at 134.510, Jun 11 high and a Fibonacci projection. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend from May 20 and the subsequent climb reinforces the current bullish trend structure. The rising channel top drawn from the May 20 low has also been breached. Initial support lies at 134.900, Jul 22 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Heading North

• RES 4: 112.335 1.764 proj of the Jun 22 - Jul 8 - Jul 13 price swing
• RES 3: 112.320 1.618 proj of the Jun 22 - Jul 8 - Jul 13 price swing
• RES 2: 112.307 1.50 proj of the Jun 22 - Jul 8 - Jul 13 price swing
• RES 1: 112.295 High Jul 23 and the intraday high
• PRICE: 112.2995 @ 05:33 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 112.245 Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 112.210 Low Jul 20
• SUP 3: 112.180/150 Low Jul 16 / Low Jul 13
• SUP 4: 112.140 Low Jul 5 and 6

The Schatz futures outlook remains bullish and the contract continues to climb as the trend extends last week's gains. The break of resistance at 112.210, Jun 11 high strengthens a bullish case with the focus on 112.307 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note too that the rally has also established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend. On the downside, initial support is seen at 112.245, Jul 21 low.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Remains Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: 131.37 38.2% retracement of the Aug '20 - Jun sell-off
• RES 3: 130.72 2.236 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 130.62 High Feb 22 (cont)
• RES 1: 130.48 High Jul 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 129.51 @ Close Jul 23
• SUP 1: 129.10 Low Jul 22
• SUP 2: 128.54/39 Low Jul 14 / High Jun 11 and recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 128.03 Jul 6
• SUP 4: 127.25 Low Jun 10

Gilt futures are below recent highs. A bullish trend condition remains intact though following last week's climb and break of 129.92, Jul 8 high. The move confirms a resumption of the uptrend from mid-May and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 130.62, Feb 22 high (cont). Note, the Jul 21 close highlights an evening star candle reversal pattern, a concern for bulls. Watch support at 128.54, low Jul 14.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Defying Gravity

• RES 4: 156.73 1.236 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 3: 155.44 1.00 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 2: 155.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 154.22 Intraday high
• PRICE: 154.08 @ Close Jul 23
• SUP 1: 152.65 Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 151.93/54 Low Jul 8 / Low Jul 6
• SUP 3: 151.19 High Jul 1
• SUP 4: 150.56 Low Jun 30

BTPs are bullish and strengthened once again Friday. A positive outlook follows the recent resumption of the uptrend - gains on Jul 6 and 7 resulted in a breach of a former key resistance at 152.47, Jun 14 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started May 19. Last week's fresh high prints reinforce a bullish theme. Attention is on the 155.00 handle next. Initial support is at 152.65, Jul 14 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Trades Through Pivot Resistance

• RES 4: 4218.00 1.00 proj of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4153.00 High Jun 17 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 4121.00 High Jun 25
• RES 1: 4111.50 High Jul 23
• PRICE: 4081.50 @ 05:58 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 4029.50 High Jul 22
• SUP 2: 3944.00/3895.00 Low Jul 19
• SUP 3: 3871.00 Low Jul 21 / Low May 19
• SUP 4: 3830.00 Low May 13 and a key support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher again Friday as the equity space rallied. A bullish short-term theme remains intact and price has traded through a key near-term resistance at 4101.50, Jul 1 high. The break of this level puts on hold a recent bearish outlook and instead signals scope for a stronger recovery. Attention shifts to the 4153.00 key resistance, the Jun 17 high. Key support has been defined at 3895.00.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Another All-Time High

• RES 4: 4508.82 1.236 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 4500.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4415.48 1.00 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 4408.25 High Jul 23
• PRICE: 4388 50 @ 07:01 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 4322.01 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4254.08/4224.00 50-day EMA / Low Jul 19 and key support
• SUP 3: 4126.75 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 4046.00 Low May 19

S&P E-minis rallied Friday to close the week at another all-time high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the underlying trend and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Recent weakness resulted in a break of 4279.25, Jul 8 low. However the contract found support at the 50-day EMA - the average represents an important trend support area. The focus is 4415.487 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at 4224.00, Jul 19 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U1) Still Testing The 61.8% Retracement

• RES 4: $77.84 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $76.72 - High Jul 14
• RES 2: $75.39 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - 20 downleg
• RES 1: $74.50 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $73.38 @ 07:00 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: $71.86 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $67.44/43 - Low Jul 20 / 76.4% of the May 21 - Jul 6 rally
• SUP 3: $66.11 - Low May 24
• SUP 4: $64.22 - Low May 21

Brent futures are holding onto the bulk of last week's gains. Price has tested above $73.87, the 61.8% retracement of the Jul 6 - 20 downleg. A clear breach of this level would strengthen a bullish case and put on hold the recent bearish theme. This would signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at $77.84, the Jul 6 high. A reversal lower is required to refocus attention on $67.44, Jul 20 low.

WTI TECHS: (U1) Holding Onto The Bulk Of Last Week's Gains

• RES 4: $76.07 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $74.90 - High Jul 13
• RES 2: $73.46 - 76% retracement of the Jul 6 - 20 downleg
• RES 1: $72.43 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $71.23 @ 07:05 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: $69.41 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $65.01/64.60 - Low Jul 20 / 76.4% of the May 21 - Jul 6 rally
• SUP 3: $63.10 - Low May 24
• SUP 4: $61.06 - Low May 21 and key support

Brent futures are holding onto the bulk of the strong rebound from $65.01, Jul 20 low. Price is testing the 61.8% retracement of the Jul 6 - 20 downleg at $71.85. A breach of this retracement would strengthen a bullish case and place on hold the recent bearish theme. This would signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at $76.07, the Jul 6 high. A reversal lower would refocus attention on $65.01, Jul 20 low and the key support.

GOLD TECHS: Short-Term Support Holds

• RES 4: $1877.5 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 3: $1863.3 - High Jun 16
• RES 2: $1853.3 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 1: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1805.1 @ 07:20 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: $1791.7/1790.0 Low Jul 12 / Low Jul 23
• SUP 2: $1774.4/1750.8 - Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 29
• SUP 3: $1733.5 -76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 4: $1723.8 - Low Apr 13

Gold is consolidating and remains below $1834.1, Jul 15 high. The outlook remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Price however needs to clear $1834.1, Jul 15 high to confirm a resumption of the bull cycle. Support to watch is at $1791.7, Jul 12 low that was probed briefly on Friday. A breach would be bearish and instead would signal scope for an extension lower towards the key support at $1750.8, Jun 29 low.

SILVER TECHS: Needle Points South

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16
• RES 3: $26.775/27.245 - High Jul 6 and key resistance / High Jun 17
• RES 2: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 1: $25.761 - High Jul 19
• PRICE: $25.218 @ 07:25 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: $24.758 - Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: $24.686 - Low Apr 13
• SUP 3: $24.257 - Low Apr 1
• SUP 4: $23.781 - Low Mar 31and key support

Silver is consolidating. The metal remains bearish following last week's breach of support at $25.529, Jun 29 low. The break confirmed a resumption of the downleg that started May 18. Note that $24.955, 76.4% of the Mar 31 - May 18 rally has also been breached. Continued weakness would open $24.686, Apr 13 low. MA studies are in a bear mode reinforcing the current bearish theme. Key resistance has been defined at $26.775, Jul 6 high.