MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - ES1 Maintains Firm Tone Despite Monday Pullback

Price Signal Summary – E-mini S&P maintains a firm tone despite Monday pullback

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis maintain a firmer tone following last week’s gains and despite yesterday’s pullback. Futures remain above the 50-day EMA, at 4580.42 today. This average is a pivot level and the recent strong recovery through it has improved conditions for bulls. EUROSTOXX 50 futures rallied on Dec 7 and breached 4186.00, the Dec 1 high. Futures however have since pulled back from recent highs although the move lower is still considered a correction.
• In FX, EURUSD continues to consolidate and remains below resistance at 1.1383, Nov 30 high. A break of this level would signal potential for a stronger S/T recovery that would open 1.1442, the 50-day EMA. The recent consolidation appears to be a triangle formation. GBPUSD has failed to hold onto Friday’s gains. The pair remains in a downtrend. Last week’s move to a fresh trend low of 1.3163 on Dec 8 confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. USDJPY is unchanged and continues to consolidate. Attention is on the bullish engulfing candle on Dec 6 that highlights a potential reversal from the recent low of 112.53 on Nov 30.
• On the commodity front, Gold is unchanged and still consolidating above recent lows. The short-term outlook remains bearish. Price has recently breached both the 20- and the 50-day EMAs and attention is on the base of a bull channel at $1767.2 today. WTI bulls have paused for breath. The outlook remains bullish following recent strong gains. Last week’s move higher confirmed an inverted head and shoulder reversal on the 60-min chart, reinforcing the current bull cycle.
• In the FI space, Bund futures traded higher yesterday and the contract remains in an uptrend. The recent move lower, appears to be a correction and the contract has remained above the 20-day EMA, at 173.62 today. Gilt futures remain in an uptrend . The contract traded higher on Dec 8 and last week’s gains maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Triangle Formation

• RES 4: 1.1544 Bear channel top from Jun 1 high
• RES 3: 1.1514 Low Nov 5
• RES 2: 1.1442 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1383 High Nov 30
• PRICE: 1.1279 @ 05:58 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 1.1228 Low Dec 07
• SUP 2: 1.1186/85 Low Nov 24 / Low Jul 1, 2020
• SUP 3: 1.1128 1.764 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1040 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘21 uptrend

EURUSD continues to consolidate and remains below resistance at 1.1383, Nov 30 high. A break of this level would signal potential for a stronger S/T recovery that would open 1.1442, the 50-day EMA. The recent consolidation appears to be a triangle formation. This is a continuation pattern and reinforces the current bear trend. The bear trigger is 1.1186/85. Clearance of this support would resume the trend and open 1.1128, a Fibonacci projection.

GBPUSD TECHS: Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.3698 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3607 High Nov 9
• RES 2: 1.3514 High Nov 18 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3321/70 20-day EMA / High Nov 30
• PRICE: 1.3206 @ 06:07 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 1.3163 Low Dec 08
• SUP 2: 1.3122 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.3135 Low Dec 11 2020
• SUP 4: 1.3063 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band

GBPUSD has failed to hold onto Friday’s gains. The pair remains in a downtrend. Last week’s move to a fresh trend low of 1.3163 on Dec 8 confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on a vol-band support at, 1.3122 today, ahead of the Dec 11 2020 lows of 1.3131. Resistance to watch is at 1.3321, the 20-day EMA. A break would be bullish.

EURGBP TECHS: Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20
• RES 3: 0.8658 High Sep 29 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8624 High Oct 1
• RES 1: 0.8600 High Dec 8
• PRICE: 0.8540 @ 06:14 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 0.8501/8489 Low Dec 13 / Low Dec 7
• SUP 2: 0.8446 Low Nov 29 and a key S/T support
• SUP 3: 0.8411/8381 Low Nov 26 / Low Nov 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020

EURGBP bounced off yesterday’s low of 0.8501. The cross rallied on Dec 8 to a high of 08600. Recent dips are considered corrective and the outlook remains bullish. The rally last week resulted in a test of key short-term resistance at 0.8595, Nov 5 high. A clear break of this level would open 0.8658, Sep 29 high. A key short-term support has been defined at 0.8489, the Dec 7 low. A break would be bearish.

USDJPY TECHS: Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 116.09 1.764 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 3: 115.52 High Nov 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 114.38 61.8% of the Nov 24 - 30 downleg
• RES 1: 113.95/96 High Dec 8 / Nov 29
• PRICE: 113.58 @ 06:22 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 112.53 Low Nov 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 112.08 High Sep 30 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 111.32 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Nov rally
• SUP 4: 110.82 Low Oct 4

USDJPY is unchanged and continues to consolidate. Attention is on the bullish engulfing candle on Dec 6 that highlights a potential reversal from the recent low of 112.53 on Nov 30. The 20-day EMA as a resistance, at 113.65 today, continues to hold firm for now. A clear break would reinforce the candle pattern and open the November high of 115.52. Sub 112.53 levels would reinstate a bearish threat.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 131.59 High Nov 5
• RES 3: 129.99 High Nov 19
• RES 2: 129.57 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 128.76/129.11 20-day EMA / High Dec 08
• PRICE: 128.14 @ 06:29 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 127.39 Low Dec 3 / Dec 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 127.28 1.00 proj of the Jun 1 - Sep 22 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 3: 127.04/126.65 Low Feb 15 / Low Feb 10
• SUP 4: 125.82 1.236 proj of the Jun1 - Sep 22 - Oct 20 price swing

EURJPY is consolidating just above the 128.00 handle. The cross traded higher on Dec 8, but failed to clear the 20-day EMA. For bulls, a clear breach of this indicator would strengthen conditions and open the 50-day EMA, at 129.57. S/T gains are considered corrective though and the downtrend remains intact. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 127.39, Dec 3 low. A break of this level would resume the trend and open 127.04.

AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Below Last Weeks Highs

• RES 4: 0.7341 61.8% retracement of the Oct 28 - Dec 3 downleg
• RES 3: 0.7293 Former channel base drawn from the Aug 20 low
• RES 2: 0.7259 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7176/87 20-day EMA / High Dec 9
• PRICE: 0.7116 @ 06:49 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 0.7090/7040 Intraday low / Low Dec 7
• SUP 2: 0.6993/91 Low Dec 3 / Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6963 Low Jul 16 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6921 Low Jul 14 2020

AUDUSD is softer and is reversing part of last week’s gains. The pair has recently tested the 20-day EMA that intersects at 0.7176. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bull cycle and signal scope for a climb towards 0.7293, the base of the bull channel drawn from the Aug 20 low. The channel base was breached on Nov 19. For bears, a deeper pullback would refocus attention on 0.6991, Nov 2 2020 low and the bear trigger.

USDCAD TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 1.3009 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2949 High Aug 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2896 High Sep 20
• RES 1: 1.2854 High Dec 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2802 @ 06:58 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 1.2693/08 20-day EMA / Low Dec 8
• SUP 2: 1.2571 50.0% retracement of the Oct 21 - Dec 3 rally
• SUP 3: 1.2493 Low Nov 16
• SUP 4: 1.2422 61.8% retracement of the Oct 21 - Dec 3 rally

USDCAD reversed lower last week but found support at 1.2608, the Dec 8 low. The pair rallied yesterday and so far retraced virtually the entire sell-off between Dec 3 - 8. The focus is on resistance at 1.2854, Dec 3 high where a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 21. This would open 1.2896, the Sep 20 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at 1.2608.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H2) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 176.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 175.57 1.618 proj of the Nov 11 - 22 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 175.29 1.50 proj of the Nov 11 - 22 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 175.02 High Dec 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 174.67 @ 05:09 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 173.62/40 20-day EMA / Low Dec 8
• SUP 2: 172.70 Low Nov 26
• SUP 3: 171.77 Low Nov 24 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 170.72 Low Nov 4

Bund futures traded higher yesterday and the contract remains in an uptrend. The recent move lower, appears to be a correction and the contract has remained above the 20-day EMA, at 173.62 today. A break of this EMA would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper pullback. For bulls, clearance of 175.02, the Dec 8 high, is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and would open 175.29, a Fibonacci projection.

BOBL TECHS: (H2) Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 135.126 1.382 pro of the Nov 11 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 134.978 1.236 pro of the Nov 11 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 2: 134.740 1.00 pro of the Nov 11 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 134.530 High Nov 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 134.200 @ 05:17 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 133.710 Low Dec 8
• SUP 2: 133.610 Low Nov 16
• SUP 3: 133.410 Low Nov 11 and a key support
• SUP 4: 133.200 Low Nov 3

Bobl futures remain above recent lows. The contract traded sharply lower Dec 8 but also managed to recover from that day's low. The contract also probed support at 133.730, Nov 23 low. A clear breach of level would strengthen a bearish case and open 133.410, the Nov 11 low. A recovery would instead refocus attention on 134.530, Nov 30 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the recent uptrend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H2) Approaching First Resistance

• RES 4: 112.375 1.382 proj of the Nov 16 - 26 - Dec 1 price swing
• RES 3: 112.350 1.236 proj of the Nov 16 - 26 - Dec 1 price swing
• RES 2: 112.305 High Nov 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 112.235 High Dec 2 / 3
• PRICE: 112.195 @ 05:28 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 112.090 Low Dec 8
• SUP 2: 112.070 1.000 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 1 - Dec 3 price swing
• SUP 3: 112.031 1.236 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 1 - Dec 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 112.007 1.382 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 1 - Dec 3 price swing

Schatz futures are firmer. The contract faced strong selling pressure on Dec 8 and cleared near term support levels. The break lower strengthened a bearish threat and confirmed an extension of the pullback from 112.305, Nov 26 high. A resumption of weakness would open 112.070 and 112.031, Fibonacci retracements. The recovery since Dec 8 however is encouraging for bulls. A break of 112.235, Dec 2 / 3 high would ease any bearish threat.

GILT TECHS: (H2) Bullish Theme Intact

• RES 4: 129.00 76.4% retracement of the Aug - Oct downleg (cont)
• RES 3: 128.18 High Sep 10 / 14 (cont)
• RES 2: 127.94/128.00 61.8% of Aug - Oct move (cont) / High Aug 31
• RES 1: 127.67 High Dec 8
• PRICE: 127.54 @ Close Dec 13
• SUP 1: 126.67/32 Low Dec 10 / Low Dec 2
• SUP 2: 125.44 Low Nov 26 and gap high
• SUP 3: 124.94 High Nov 25 and gap low
• SUP 4: 124.48 Low Nov 25

Gilt futures remain in an uptrend . The contract traded higher on Dec 8 and last week’s gains maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend. Price is approaching the 128.00 objective. Short-term dips would be considered corrective with initial support seen at 126.67, the Dec 10 low. Also watch support at 125.44, the Nov 26 low and a gap high on the daily chart.

BTP TECHS: (H2) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 152.71 1.00 proj of the Nov 1 - 22 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 151.45 0.764 proj of the Nov 1 - 22 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 151.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 150.66 High Dec 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 150.12 @ Close Dec 13
• SUP 1: 148.51/25 Low Dec 8 / Low Dec 1
• SUP 2: 147.36 Low Nov 24 and key support
• SUP 3: 146.55 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - 22 rally
• SUP 4: 145.29 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger

BTP futures reversed course on Dec 8 and sold off sharply. The move lower did expose support at 148.25, the Dec 1 low where a break would highlight potential for a test of a firmer support at 147.36, Nov 24 low. The contract has however recovered from 148.51, the Dec 8 low and remains above it. A clear break of resistance at 159.64, Nov 22 high (probed last week) would reinstate a bullish theme. This would open the 151.00 handle.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 4461.00 1.50 proj of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - Oct 6 price swing
• RES 3: 4420.80 1.382 proj of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - Oct 6 price swing
• RES 2: 4409.50 High Nov 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4311.70 76.4% retracement of the Nov 18 - 30 downleg
• PRICE: 4187.50 @ 05:52 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 4137.00 Low Dec 7
• SUP 2: 4053.50/3995.00 Low Dec 3 / Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 3949.50 Low Oct 6 and bear trigger3:
• SUP 4: 3882.00 Low Jul 19

EUROSTOXX 50 futures rallied on Dec 7 and breached 4186.00, the Dec 1 high. Futures however have since pulled back from recent highs although the move lower is still considered a correction. The focus is on 4311.70, 76.4% of the Nov 18 - 30 downleg. A break would open 4409.50, the Nov 18 high and key resistance. The Dec 7 low of 4137.00 is initial support. The key support lies at 3995.00, Nov 30 low.

E-MINI S&P (H2): Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 4854.19 0.764 proj of the Oct 1 - Nov 22 - Dec 3 price swing
• RES 1: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4783.78 0.618 proj of the Oct 1 - Nov 22 - Dec 3 price swing
• RES 1: 4735.00 High Nov 22 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4668.50 @ 07:04 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 4633.39/4580.42 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4485.75 Low Dec 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4493.88 61.8% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 22 rally
• SUP 4: 4436.97 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 22 rally

S&P E-minis maintain a firmer tone following last week’s gains and despite yesterday’s pullback. Futures remain above the 50-day EMA, at 4580.42 today. This average is a pivot level and the recent strong recovery through it has improved conditions for bulls. The focus is on the 4735.00 all-time high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support and the bear trigger is at 4492.00, the Dec 3 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G2) Bullish Theme Intact

• RES 4: $84.66 - High Oct 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: $81.88 - High Nov 24
• RES 2: $80.42 - High Nov 26
• RES 1: $76.92 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $74.57 @ 07:02 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: $73.20 - Low Dec 7
• SUP 2: $69.24/65.72 - Low Dec 3 / Low Dec 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $62.95 - Low Aug 23 and a key support
• SUP 4: $62.54 - Low May 21

Brent futures are in a consolidation mode. The outlook remains bullish though and the focus is on last week’s high of $76.70 on Dec 9. The rally last week confirmed an inverted head and shoulders reversal on the 60-min chart, suggesting scope for stronger gains near-term. Attention is on $76.92, the 50-day EMA where a clear break would signal scope for astonger recovery. Initial support is at $73.20, the Dec 3 low.

WTI TECHS: (F2) Eyeing The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $83.83 - High Oct 25 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $80.68 - High Nov 16
• RES 2: $78.65 - High Nov 26
• RES 1: $74.40 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $71.48 @ 07:05 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: $69.52 - Low Dec 7
• SUP 2: $65.60 - Low Dec 3
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $60.77 - Low Aug 23 and a key support

WTI bulls have paused for breath. The outlook remains bullish following recent strong gains. Last week’s move higher confirmed an inverted head and shoulder reversal on the 60-min chart, reinforcing the current bull cycle. Attention is on $74.40 next, the 50-day EMA where a clear break would signal scope for stronger recovery. Initial firm support lies at $69.52, the Dec 7 low.

GOLD TECHS: Consolidating Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: $1903.8 - High Jun 8
• RES 3: $1877.2/93.0 High Nov 16 / Bull channel top
• RES 2: $1815.6/49.1 - High Nov 26 / High Nov 22
• RES 1: $1794.5 High Dec 1
• PRICE: $1787.9 @ 07:18 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: $1767.2/62.0 - Bull Channel base from Aug 9 / Low Dec 2
• SUP 2: $1759.0 - Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29
• SUP 4: $1690.6 - Low Aug 9

Gold is unchanged and still consolidating above recent lows. The short-term outlook remains bearish. Price has recently breached both the 20- and the 50-day EMAs and attention is on the base of a bull channel at $1767.2 today. The channel is drawn off the Aug 9 low and still represents an important support. A breakout would strengthen bearish conditions. Initial firm resistance to watch is at $1815.6, the Nov 26 high.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Remain Bearish

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Aug 4 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.406 - High Nov 16
• RES 2: $23.030/772 - High Dec 1 / High Nov 24
• RES 1: $22.609 High Dec 6
• PRICE: $22.298 @ 07:22 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: $21.832/423 - Low Dec 10 / Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 2: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 rally
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.851 - Low Jul 21 2020

Silver remains vulnerable. The metal traded lower last week and breached support at $21.995, Oct 1 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend paving the way for weakness towards $21.423, the Sep 29 low and an important support. Moving average conditions have recently reversed to a bear mode and this highlights the current bearish sentiment. Initial resistance has been defined at $22.609, Dec 6 high.