MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - ES1 Support Still Intact

Price Signal Summary - E-mini S&P Support Still Intact

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis traded volatile mid-week. Support levels to watch remain 4110.50, Apr 20 low and trendline support that intersects at 4099.00, drawn off the Mar 4 low. The support zone will likely determine the outcome of this correction - will it be a shallow one if support holds or develop into a deeper pullback on a break?
• In FX, EURUSD last week failed to confirm a clear break of the bear channel resistance drawn off the Jan 6 high. The subsequent sell-off highlights a bearish threat. Watch support at, 1.2014/1988, the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This support zone has been probed. A clear break would open 1.1943, Apr 19 low. GBPUSD remains below 1.4009, Apr 20 high. The break on Apr 30 of support at 1.3824, Apr 22 low strengthens a bearish case. The focus is on 1.3717, Apr 16 low. The USDJPY maintains a bullish tone following last week's gains. Attention is on 109.96 next, Apr 9 high.
• On the commodity front, the Gold outlook is bullish and the focus is on $1805.7, Feb 25 high. Watch key short-term support at $1756.2, Apr 29 low. The Brent (N1) uptrend has resumed. The focus is on the psychological $70.00 level and $71.75, Jan 8 2020 high (cont). WTI is firmer too and bulls are eyeing the key resistance at $67.29, Mar 8 high.
• In the FI space, Bunds (M1) have recently breached 170.05, 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Mar 25 rally. This opens 169.24, Feb 25 low. Short-term gains are considered corrective. Short-term risk in Gilts is skewed to the downside. The next support and intraday bear trigger is at 127.32, Apr 1 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.2243 High Feb 25 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2184 High Feb 26
• RES 2: 1.2150 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2076 High May 3
• PRICE: 1.2003 @ 05:57 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 1.1988 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1943 Low Apr 19
• SUP 3: 1.1861 Low Apr 7 and 8
• SUP 4: 1.1795 Low Apr 6

EURUSD, maintains a bearish theme following this week's move lower and the sharp sell-off Apr 30. This highlights a failed attempt to confirm a clear break of a bear channel top drawn off the Jan 6 high. Key resistance has been defined at 1.2150, Apr 29 high. A firm support is at 1.2013/1989, the 20 and 50-day EMAs. This zone has been probed, a breach would trigger a stronger sell-off. Clearance of 1.2150 is needed to reinstate the uptrend.

GBPUSD TECHS: Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 1.4174 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4103 76.4% retracement of the Feb 24 - Apr 12 downleg
• RES 2: 1.4009/17 High Apr 20 / High Mar 4
• RES 1: 1.3977 High Apr 29
• PRICE: 1.3897 @ 06:01 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 1.3801 Low May 3
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3670/69 Low Mar 25 / Low Apr 12 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

GBPUSD is consolidation. The outlook remains bearish though. The pair traded sharply lower Apr 30 breaching support at 1.3824, Apr 22 low. The move through 1.3824 and the recent failure to tackle resistance at 1.4009, Apr 20 high, highlights this threat and the risk of a pullback towards 1.3669, Apr 12 low. Clearance of this support level would strengthen a bearish case. Cable needs to clear resistance at 1.4009 to reinstate a bullish theme.

EURGBP TECHS: Maintains This Week's Softer Tone

• RES 4: 0.8840 High Feb 4
• RES 3: 0.8791/8857 High Feb 12 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 0.8721 High Apr 26
• PRICE: 0.8636 @ 06:13 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 0.8624 Low May 5
• SUP 2: 0.8589 Low Apr 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020

EURGBP edged lower again Wednesday however attention remains on resistance. The cross on Apr 26 probed former resistance at 0.8719, Apr 16 high. The recovery from 0.8589, Apr 19 low signals scope for an extension higher and a clear breach of 0.8719 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 4. This would open 0.8731, Feb 26 high and 0.8762, a retracement. Key support is at 0.8589. A break would be bearish.

USDJPY TECHS: Consolidating But Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
• RES 3: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 110.55 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 109.70/96 High May 3 / High Apr 9
• PRICE: 109.33 @ 06:26 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 108.44 Low Apr 29
• SUP 2: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.97 Low Mar 4
• SUP 4: 106.78 50.0% retracement of the Jan - Mar rally

USDJPY outlook is unchanged and remains bullish although for now the pair is consolidating. A bullish theme follows the recent recovery from 107.48, Apr 23 low and the failure to confirm a clear break of trendline support drawn the Jan 6 low. With the trendline intact and MA studies in bull mode, further gains are likely. Attention is on 109.96, Apr 9 high. Initial support is at 108.44, Apr 29 low. A break of 107.48 though is required to reinstate a bearish theme.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 133.43/77 Bull channel top / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 133.13 High Sep 21, 2018 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 132.68 High Sep 27, 2018
• RES 1: 132 36/37 2.236 of Jun-Sep-Oct 2020 swing/High Apr 29
• PRICE: 131.26 @ 06:31 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 130.97 High Apr 20 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 130.80 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 130.57 Low Apr 27
• SUP 4: 129.92 Bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low

EURJPY maintains a bullish focus and the recent pullback is considered corrective. The cross recently cleared 130.97, Apr 20 high and attention is on 132.36, a Fibonacci projection. This level has recently been tested, a clear break would signal scope for an extension higher within the bull channel drawn off the Oct 30 2020 low. Moving average studies are in a bull mode reinforcing current conditions. Support is at 130.57, Apr 27 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Consolidating Above Support

• RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7895 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 2: 0.7849 High Mar 18 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 0.7816/18 High Apr 20 / 29
• PRICE: 0.7736 @ 06:38 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 0.7675 Low May 4
• SUP 2: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 0.7586 Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: 0.7532/17 Low Apr 1 and the bear trigger / Low Dec 22

AUDUSD earlier this week traded below first support at 0.7691, Apr 22 low. This threatens the bullish price structure that has dominated after the recent break of a trendline resistance drawn off the Feb 25 high. A deeper pullback would open losses toward 0.7635 and the 0.7586 key near-term support. Resistance is unchanged at 0.7816/18 the 18 Apr 29 highs. A clear break of this hurdle would be bullish and open 0.7849, the Mar 18 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Bears Still In Charge

• RES 4: 1.2653 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2491 High Apr 26
• RES 2: 1.2413 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2365/2419 Low Mar 18 / High Apr 27
• PRICE: 1.2264 @ 06:44 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 1.2252 Low May 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2239 1.236 proj of Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2178 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2105 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD is weak and touched a new multi-year low yesterday at 1.2252. This keeps the pair in bear mode following last week's move to fresh cycle lows. The break of 1.2365, Mar 18 low confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that has been in place since March 2020. MA studies are in a bear mode, reinforcing current trend conditions. The focus is on 1.2239, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial resistance is at 1.2365/2419.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 171.62 High Apr 14
• RES 3: 171.37 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 171.27 High Apr 22
• RES 1: 170.80 High Apr 4
• PRICE: 170.57 @ 05:06 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 169.89 Low Apr 4
• SUP 2: 169.47/24 Low Apr 3 / Low Feb 24 and major support
• SUP 3: 168.96 0.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 168.52 Low Mar 20, 2020 (cont)

Bund futures are trading closer to recent highs. Despite this week's gains, the downtrend remains intact. Recent weakness has opened the key support handle at 169.24, Feb 25 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the underlying downtrend and expose 169.00 and below. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at yesterday's 170.80 high. The area around the 50-day EMA at 171.37 represents a key resistance.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Holding Onto This Week's Gains

• RES 4: 135.180 High Apr 14
• RES 3: 135.056 50-day EMA and key short-term resistance area
• RES 2: 135.050 High Apr 22
• RES 1: 134.990 High May 4
• PRICE: 134.970 @ 05:15 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 134.690 Low May 4
• SUP 2: 134.560 Low May 3
• SUP 3: 134.466 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 4: 134.140 Low Feb 26 and key support

Bobl futures have traded higher this week however despite these gains, a downtrend remains intact and gains are considered corrective. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA. The area around the 50-day EMA at 135.056 marks a key near-term resistance area. A resumption of weakness would once again open 134.466, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of the 50-day EMA though would alter the picture and highlight a stronger S/T bullish outlook.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Remains Below Resistance

• RES 4: 112.165 High Mar 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 112.150 High Apr 8
• RES 2: 112.120 High Apr 22 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 112.110 High May 4 and 5
• PRICE: 112.100 @ 05:21 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 112.060/055 Congestion support in Mar and Apr / Low Apr 3
• SUP 2: 112.053 50.0% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 3: 112.026 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 4: 111.993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Schatz futures, while firmer this week, remain below 112.120 resistance, Apr 22 high and recent gains are considered corrective. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support at 112.060, a level that provided support in March and April but was probed Monday. A clear break would strengthen a bearish case and open 112.053 and 112.026, Fibonacci retracements. On the upside, a breach of 112.120 alters the picture.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Bearish Risk Remains Present

• RES 4: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 3: 129.09/27 High Apr 23 and the reversal trigger / High Mar 2
• RES 2: 128.66/128.74 High Apr 26 / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 128.27 High May 4
• PRICE: 127.95 @ Close May 5
• SUP 1: 127.40 Low Apr 29
• SUP 2: 127.32 Low Apr 1
• SUP 3: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)

Gilt futures traded higher Tuesday. Despite these gains a bearish theme remains intact after last week's breach of support at 127.81, Apr 14 low. This move strengthens a bearish case following the recent pullback from 129.09, Apr 23 high and the area of resistance around the 50-day EMA. An extension lower would open 127.32, Apr 1 low ahead of the key support at 126.79, Mar 18 low. Key resistance is unchanged at 129.09.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 149.47 High Apr 8
• RES 3: 148.85 High Apr 15
• RES 2: 148.65 High Apr 22
• RES 1: 147.94/ 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 147.33 @ Close May 5
• SUP 1: 146.70 Low May 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 146.54 0.764 proj of the Feb 12 - 26 - Mar 11 price swing
• SUP 3: 146.16 Low Sep 21, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 145.56 Low Sep 15, 2020 (cont)

BTP futures outlook is unchanged. A bearish theme dominates following last week's move lower and despite this week's gains. The contract has recently probed key support at 146.84, Feb 26 low and the bear trigger. A clear breach would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that has been in place since Feb 12. This would open 146.54 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 148.65, Apr 22 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (M1) Key Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4099.00 1.00 proj of of the Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 3: 4023.00 Low Aug 16, 2007
• RES 2: 4000.00 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 3993.00 High Apr 29
• PRICE: 3971.00 @ 05:43 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 3882.00 Low May 4
• SUP 2: 3855.00 Low Mar 31
• SUP 3: 3842.96 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3821.00 High Mar 18 and recent breakout level

EUROSTOXX 50 futures faced strong selling pressure Tuesday but recovered yesterday. A bearish risk remains present though with price trading below the recent 4000.00 high. A move lower would be considered a correction, allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. A resumption of weakness would open the 50-day EMA at 3837.78 initially. On the upside, key resistance is unchanged at 4000.00, Apr 16 high.

E-MINI S&P (M1): Dip Buyers Still Prevalent

• RES 4: 4289.35 Bull channel top drawn off the Apr 4 low
• RES 3: 4255.49 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 4239.26 1.764 proj of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing
• RES 1: 4211.00 High Apr 29
• PRICE: 4166.50 @ 09:44 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 4135.03 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4120.50 Low May 4
• SUP 3: 4110.50 Low Apr 20 and key support
• SUP 4: 4099.50 Bull channel base drawn off the Apr 4 low

The e-mini S&P remains below the Tuesday high, but has recovered well off the week's low of 4120.50, providing further evidence that dip buyers remain a key driver for markets. Furthermore, key support at 4110.50, May 4 low and 4099.50, a bull channel base remains intact. This keeps the outlook bullish with the focus on 4211.00, Apr 29 high and the bull trigger. A break would open 4239.96, a Fibonacci projection.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N1) Approaching $70.00

• RES 4: $71.95 - High Sep 16, 2019 (cont)
• RES 3: $71.75 - High Jan 8 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $69.95 - High May 5
• PRICE: $69 19 @ 06:43 BST May 6
• SUP 1: $67.37 - Low May 4
• SUP 2: $66.10 - Low May 3
• SUP 3: $64.13 - Low Apr 26 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $61.97 - Low Apr 5

Brent crude futures maintain a bullish tone and have this week resumed their upleg. Yesterday, price probed key resistance at $69.73, Mar 8 high. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend and extend the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This would open $71.75, the Jan 8, 2020 high (cont). On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at $66.10.

WTI TECHS: (M1) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $67.95 - High Oct 29, 2018
• RES 2: $67.29 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $66.58 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $65.79 @ 06:47 BST May 6
• SUP 1: $64.29 - Low May 4
• SUP 2: $62.91 - Low May 3 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $60.61 - Low Apr 22 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $58.77 - Low Apr 12

WTI futures maintain a bullish tone, having resumed their climb this week. The contract has probed resistance at $66.15, Mar 15 high where a clear break would pave the way for a test of the key hurdle for bulls at $67.29, Mar 8 high. Clearance of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. On the downside, firm near-term support has been defined at $62.91, May 3 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: $1818.1 - 50.0% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off
• RES 3: $1816.0 - High Feb 23
• RES 2: $1805.7 - High Feb 25
• RES 1: $1799.1 - High May 4
• PRICE: $1792.7 @ 07:05 BST May 6
• SUP 1: $1756.2 - Low Apr 29 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: $1734.5 - Low Apr 15
• SUP 3: $1721.4 - Low Apr 5
• SUP 4: $1705.9 - Low Apr 1

Gold remains above support and underlying conditions are bullish. The yellow metal has defined a key short-term support at $1756.2 on Apr 29. Attention is on the key resistance at $1797.9, Apr 22 high. This level has been probed this week and a clear break would confirm a resumption of recent gains and open $1805.7, Feb 25 high. For bears, a break of $1756.2 would instead signal scope for a deeper pullback.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Price Structure Intact

• RES 4: $28.609 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 1 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 3: $28.328 - High Feb 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $27.686 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 1 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 1: $27.118 - High May 4
• PRICE: $26.674 @ 07:09 BST May 6
• SUP 1: $25.718 - Low Apr 29 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: $25.636 - Low Apr 19
• SUP 3: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: $24.686 - Low Apr 13

Silver remains bullish. The metal rallied Monday trading above $26.645, Apr 21 high. This strengthens a bullish case and confirms a resumption of the recovery from Mar 31. With MA signals also in a bull mode, further gains are likely towards $27.686 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key S/T support has been defined at $25.718, Apr 29 low. A break is required to dampen the current bullish mood.