MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR Bear Trend Persists
Price Signal Summary – EUR Bear Trend Persists
- S&P E-Minis remain above Tuesday’s low. Recent weakness in the contract appears to have been a correction. Medium-term trend signals such as MA studies, continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. The contract has recently traded through support at the 20-day EMA. A bearish theme in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact. A fresh cycle low this week marks a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30. Price has breached 4746.94, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle.
- EURUSD traded to fresh lows Thursday. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the current price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. The USDJPY trend condition is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 153.52, remains intact. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Despite this week’s pullback, the trend outlook in USDCAD is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pullback is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
- WTI futures have traded higher this week. However, a bearish theme remains intact. Attention is on $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance. The long-term trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest move down appears to have been a correction. Price has recovered from its recent lows and the metal is again trading higher, today.
- Bund futures remain below their recent highs and short term gains still appear corrective. The trend direction is down and moving average studies reinforce this theme - they remain in a bear-mode position. The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish and the latest shallow recovery appears to be a correction. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 92.23.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 1.0937 High Nov 5 and key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 1.0810 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0678 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0610 High Nov 20
- PRICE: 1.0465 @ 05:53 GMT Nov 22
- SUP 1: 1.0462 Low Nov 21
- SUP 2: 1.0448 Low Sep 3 2023 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.0377 1.236 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
EURUSD traded to fresh lows Thursday. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the current price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend, suggesting scope for a continuation near-term. Note too that the break lower confirmed the latest pause as a bear flag. Sights are on 1.0448, the Sep 3 2023 low. Resistance to watch is 1.0678, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle Low
- RES 4: 1.3175 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 1.3048 High Nov 6 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.2803/2927 20- and 50-day EMA values
- RES 1: 1.2715 High Nov 20
- PRICE: 1.2571 @ 06:22 GMT Nov 22
- SUP 1: 1.2565 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.2510 Low May 14
- SUP 3. 1.2446 Low Sep 9
- SUP 4: 1.2300 Low Apr 22 and a key support
A downtrend in GBPUSD remains intact and yesterday’s break lower confirms a resumption of the bear cycle. This signals scope for a continuation near-term. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 1.2510, the May 14 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 1.2803 the 20-day EMA. A short-term bounce would be considered corrective.
EURGBP TECHS: Trading Below Tuesday’s High
- RES 4: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 2: 0.8404 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8363/76 50-day EMA / High Nov 19
- PRICE: 0.8328 @ 06:47 GMT Nov 22
- SUP 1: 0.8307/8260 Low Nov 14 / 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
- SUP 4: 0.8200 Round number support
EURGBP continues to trade below Tuesday’s high. Attention remains on a bullish engulfing candle pattern on Nov 12 that highlights a potential reversal. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the next key resistance at 0.8363, the 50-day EMA (pierced). A clear break of the average would open 0.8404, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 0.8260, Nov 11 low.
USDJPY TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend
- RES 4: 158.68 2.50 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 3: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 2: 156.88 2.236 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 1: 156.75 High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 154.86 @ 06:34 GMT Nov 22
- SUP 1: 153.52 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 151.25 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 149.09 Low Oct 21
- SUP 4: 147.35 Low Oct 8
The USDJPY trend condition is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 153.52, remains intact. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend and sights are on 156.88 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, a clear breach of the 20-day EMA is required to signal the start of a stronger corrective phase.
EURJPY TECHS: Breaches Support
- RES 4: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 3: 165.04/166.69 High Nov 15 / High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 164.76 High Nov 20 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 163.44 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 162.03 @ 07:05 GMT Nov 22
- SUP 1: 160.92 50.0% retracement of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle
- SUP 2: 159.56 61.8% retracement of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 157.87 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle
EURJPY has reversed lower from Wednesday’s high and this has resulted in a breach of support at 161.50, the Nov 19 low. The break cancels a recent bullish reversal signal and suggests scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on 160.92, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 164.76, the Nov 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight a possible reversal.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 0.6628/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.6559 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6505 @ 07:55 GMT Nov 22
- SUP 1: 0.6441 Low Nov 14
- SUP 2: 0.6400 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023
AUDUSD is unchanged. Recent short-term gains are considered corrective and a bear cycle remains in play. Support at 0.6513, the Nov 6 low, has recently been cleared and price is through 0.6490, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg. This opens 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6559, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 0.6628.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 1.4264 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4140 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4129 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 1: 1.4106 High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3968 @ 08:00 GMT Nov 22
- SUP 1: 1.3932 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
- SUP 3: 1.3824 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17
Despite this week’s pullback, the trend outlook in USDCAD is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pullback is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Note that initial firm support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3932, remains intact. A break would signal scope for a deeper retracement. A reversal higher would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.4106, the Nov 15 high.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 134.25 High Oct 16
- RES 3: 133.54 High Oct 24 and key resistance
- RES 2: 133.39 38.2% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg
- RES 1: 132.99 High Nov 19
- PRICE: 132.57 @ 05:31 GMT Nov 22
- SUP 1: 131.28/130.58 Low Nov 14 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2 129.99 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 3: 129.48 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 4: 129.08 1.500 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
Bund futures remain below their recent highs and short term gains still appear corrective. The trend direction is down and moving average studies reinforce this theme - they remain in a bear-mode position. The 131.00 handle has recently been cleared, opening 129.99, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance points at 132.33, the 20-day EMA, and 132.84, the 50-day EMA, have been pierced. A clear break of both EMAs would highlight a stronger reversal.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 119.620 High Oct 18
- RES 3: 119.330 High Oct 24
- RES 2: 119.010 High Nov 19
- RES 1: 118.849 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 118.790 @ 05:39 GMT Nov 22
- SUP 1: 118.150/680 Low Nov 14 / Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 117.570 2.00 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 3: 117.362 2.236 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 4: 117.234 2.382 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
Recent gains in Bobl futures appear corrective. The Oct 30 sell-off reinforced a bearish condition, confirming a resumption of the bear cycle that started Oct 1. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 117.570, a Fibonacci extension point. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 118.849, has been pierced. A clear breach of it would highlight a stronger reversal.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Pierces Trendline Resistance
- RES 4: 107.110 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 107.070 High Oct 24 and the near-term bull trigger
- RES 2: 106.945 High Oct 29
- RES 1: 106.880 High Nov 14
- PRICE: 106.825 @ 06:09 GMT Nov 22
- SUP 1: 106.645 Low Nov 8
- SUP 2: 106.485/375 Low Nov 5 / Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 106.315 1.000 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.137 1.1236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
Schatz futures are trading closer to their recent highs. A bearish trend is intact and the bull cycle since Oct 31 appears corrective. The trend is oversold and the latest move higher has allowed this condition to unwind. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 106.375, the Oct 31 low and a bear trigger. The trendline at 106.743, drawn from the Oct 1 high, has been pierced. A clear break of it would expose 106.945, Oct 29 high.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Trend Direction Remains Down
- RES 4: 96.65 High Oct 30
- RES 3: 95.83 Low Oct 10
- RES 2: 95.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 94.40/73 20-day EMA / High Nov 1
- PRICE: 94.05 @ Close Nov 21
- SUP 1: 92.97/53 Low Nov 14 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 92.23 2.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 92.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 91.75 2.3821 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish and the latest shallow recovery appears to be a correction. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 92.23, a 2.236 projection of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing. The Oct 30 high of 96.65, is seen as a key short-term resistance. Initial firm resistance to watch is 94.73, the Nov 1 high.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 122.62 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 122.41 High Oct 18 / 21
- RES 2: 151.50 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 7 bear leg
- RES 1: 120.89 High Nov 19
- PRICE: 120.37 @ Close Nov 21
- SUP 1: 119.12/117.88 Low Nov 13 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 117.70 61.8% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 117.34 Low Jul 26
- SUP 4: 116.54 76.4% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
BTP futures are trading closer to their recent highs. Despite the latest recovery, a bearish tone remains intact and gains are considered corrective. A resumption of the downtrend would refocus attention on 117.70, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial support to watch is 119.12, the Nov 13 low. Clearance of this level would be seen as an early bearish signal. On the upside, a continuation higher would open 121.50, a Fibonacci retracement.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 5015.00 High Oct 21
- RES 3: 5106.00 High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 4961.00 High Nov 6 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 4831.33/4882. 20- and 50-day EMA values
- PRICE: 4777.00 @ 06:21 GMT Nov 22
- SUP 1: 4699.00 Low Nov 19
- SUP 2: 4707.00 Low Aug 9
- SUP 3: 4662.12 .76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4586.00 Low Aug 6
A bearish theme in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact. A fresh cycle low this week marks a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30. Price has breached 4746.94, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle. This exposes 4662.12, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 4961.00, the Nov 6 high, where a break would highlight a reversal. First resistance is at 4831.33, the 20-day EMA.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Trend Signals Remain Bullish
- RES 4: 6145.26 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6103.88 1.500 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 6070.16 1.382 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 5985.00/6053.25 High Nov 21 / 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5971.50 @ 07:25 GMT Nov 22
- SUP 1: 5855.00 Low Nov 19
- SUP 2: 5843.83 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5724.25 Low Nov 4 and a key support
- SUP 4: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
S&P E-Minis remain above Tuesday’s low. Recent weakness in the contract appears to have been a correction. Medium-term trend signals such as MA studies, continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. The contract has recently traded through support at the 20-day EMA and the next key support to monitor is 5843.83, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The bull trigger is 6053.25, the Nov 11 high.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (F5) Support Remains Exposed Despite Recent Gains
- RES 4: $84.90 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $82.40 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $80.55/91 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $76.24 - High Nov 5
- PRICE: $74.25 @ 07:06 GMT Nov 22
- SUP 1: $70.28 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $69.68/68.01 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $66.38 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Despite this week’s gains, a short-term bearish condition in Brent futures remains intact. A resumption of weakness would open support at $69.68, the Oct 1 low, and $68.01, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a clear reversal higher would instead refocus attention on key resistance at $80.55, the Oct 7 high. Clearance of this level would resume the recent uptrend. Initial firm resistance to watch is $76.24, the Nov 5 high.
WTI TECHS: (F5) Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: $80.25 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $78.03 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $74.83/77.04 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.41 - High Nov 7
- PRICE: $70.27 @ 07:20 GMT Nov 22
- SUP 1: $66.32 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $65.74/63.90 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $62.73 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
WTI futures have traded higher this week. However, a bearish theme remains intact. Attention is on $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume the recent uptrend. Initial firm resistance is $72.41, the Nov 7 high.
GOLD TECHS: Reversal Higher Extends
- RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $2750.0 - High Nov 5
- RES 2: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 1: $2710.4 - High Nov 8
- PRICE: $2692.5 @ 07:27 GMT Nov 22
- SUP 1: $2636.6 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2610.5/2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 3: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
- SUP 4: $2472.0 - Low Sep 4
The long-term trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest move down appears to have been a correction. Price has recovered from its recent lows and the metal is again trading higher, today. The 20-day EMA at $2653.0, has been breached. This highlights a stronger reversal and signals the end of the recent bearish corrective cycle, opening $2730.4, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial support is at $2636.6, the 50-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $31.430 - 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 31.341 @ 08:08 GMT Nov 22
- SUP 1: $29.677 - Low Nov 14
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
Medium-term bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and the bear cycle that started on Oct 23 appears to be a correction. However, despite the latest bounce, this corrective cycle remains in play. Price has recently breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and traded through a trendline drawn from the Aug 8 low. This has exposed $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is $31.430, the 20-day EMA.