MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/GBP Breakout Extends

Price Signal Summary – EUR/GBP Breakout Extends

• S&P E-minis trend conditions remain bullish and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. The bounce from 4114.00, the May 24 low, means that support around the 50-day EMA has remained intact. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded lower Wednesday and cleared the 50-day EMA and support at 4252.00, the May 25 low. Price has also pierced support at 4233.00, the May 4 low and a key short-term level. A clear break of 4233.00 would signal a potential reversal and highlight a stronger bearish theme.
• The current bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair traded higher Thursday. This week’s recovery has resulted in a move above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break signals potential for a continuation higher and the focus shifts to 1.2547, the May 16 high. EURGBP printed a fresh 2023 low Thursday and a fourth consecutive session of lower lows. The 14d RSI is technically oversold for the first time since March 2021. Note too that the DMA space also signals short-term downside momentum. EURJPY maintains a short-term bullish tone and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Recent strength resulted in a breach of 150.32, 76.4% of the May 2 - 11 sell-off. The break opens 151.61, the May 2 high and a bull trigger.
• The bear cycle in Gold remains intact and short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. The yellow metal has this week pierced trendline support drawn from Nov 3 2022. A clear breach of this trendline, at $1944.7, would reinforce bearish conditions and open $1903.5. WTI futures remain in a bear mode position. The strong sell-off this week has resulted in a break of support at $69.39, the May 15 low. The clear breach strengthens bearish conditions and paves the way for weakness towards $63.90, the May 4 low.
• Bund futures remain in an uptrend and the contract is holding on to its recent highs. Price has cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this strengthens the current bull cycle. A continuation higher would open 136.75, the May 16 high ahead of a key resistance at 137.29. Gilt futures have recovered from 94.21, the May 26 low. Recent gains are considered corrective and the primary short-term trend condition remains bearish. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a bear cycle.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 1.1007 High May 10
• RES 3: 1.0905 High May 16
• RES 2: 1.0838 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.0807 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0765 @ 05:52 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 1.0635 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0608 Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: 1.0551 Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 1.0516 Low Mar 15 and a key support

EURUSD traded higher Thursday. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective and the downtrend remains intact. Fresh trend lows this week reinforce bearish conditions. The 1.0653 objective has been breached, 76.4% of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 rally and this opens 1.0551, the Mar 16 low. A firm resistance is seen at 1.0807, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this average is required to ease recent bearish pressure.

GBPUSD TECHS: Short-Term Rally Extends

• RES 4: 1.2680 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2641 High May 11
• RES 2: 1.2592 76.4% retracement of the May 10 - 25 bear cycle
• RES 1: 1.2547 High May 16
• PRICE: 1.2525 @ 06:03 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 1.2401/2308 Low Jun 1 / Low May 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: 1.2242 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - May 10 bull run
• SUP 4: 1.2213 Low Mar 27

The current bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair traded higher Thursday. This week’s recovery has resulted in a move above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break signals potential for a continuation higher and the focus shifts to 1.2547, the May 16 high. On the downside, a break of Thursday’s 1.2401 low is required to signal a potential top. This would expose key support and the bear trigger at 1.2308, the May 25 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Has Entered Oversold Territory

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 3: 0.8814 High May 4
• RES 2: 0.8736 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8651/8685 High May 31 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8594 @ 06:28 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 0.8567 Low Jun 1
• SUP 2: 0.8562 Low Dec 13 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8547 Low Dec 1 2022 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8522 Low Aug 30 2022

EURGBP printed a fresh 2023 low Thursday and a fourth consecutive session of lower lows. The 14d RSI is technically oversold for the first time since March 2021. Note too that the DMA space also signals short-term downside momentum: the 50- and 200-dmas are on the verge of forming a death cross (50-dma < 200-dma). The focus is on 0.8562 next, the Dec 13 low. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8685 the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Channel Top Offers Resistance - For Now

• RES 4: 142.16/25 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Nov 21 2022
• RES 3: 141.61 High Nov 23 2022
• RES 2: 140.93/96 High May 30 / Bull channel top from the Jan 16 low
• RES 1: 139.95 High Jun 1
• PRICE: 138.93 @ 06:45 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 138.45 Low Jun 1
• SUP 2: 138.02 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 137.43 Low May 19
• SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17

USDJPY bullish conditions remain intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent highs resulted in a test of the top of a bull channel, drawn from the Jan 16 low which intersects at 140.96 and represents a key resistance. A clear break of it would reinforce bullish conditions and open 141.61, the Nov 23 2022 high. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would highlight a potential top. Key support to watch is 138.02, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 152.81 1.50 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 150.12/ 151.07 High May 31 / 29
• PRICE: 149.63 @ 07:01 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 148.59 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 147.56/146.79 13 50-day EMA / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 146.13 Low May 11 and a key support
• SUP 4: 145.67 High Mar 31

EURJPY maintains a short-term bullish tone and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Recent strength resulted in a breach of 150.32, 76.4% of the May 2 - 11 sell-off. The break opens 151.61, the May 2 high and a bull trigger. The 50-day EMA, which intersects at 147.56, remains intact and is a key support. A clear break of it is required to signal a reversal. Initial support lies at 148.59, the May 31 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.6818 High May 10 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6710 High May 16
• RES 2: 0.6656 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6618 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6615 @ 08:02 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 0.6458 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10 2022
• SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022

AUDUSD is trading higher today as the pair extends the recovery from Wednesday’s low. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention turns to resistance at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 0.6656. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a stronger recovery. The trend outlook remains bearish, a reversal and a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 0.6458, the May 31 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Reversal Lower Extends

• RES 4: 1.3730 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - Apr 14 low
• RES 3: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 2: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3533 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3421 @ 08:09 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 1.3404 Low May 16
• SUP 2: 1.3363 Low May 11
• SUP 3: 1.3315 Low May 8
• SUP 4: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support

USDCAD traded lower Thursday as it extended the reversal from the May 26 high of 1.3655. The pair is weaker again today. The move lower is considered corrective, however, the impulsive nature of the sell-off signals scope for a deeper pullback. The next support to watch is 1.3404, the May 16 low. A break of this level would expose 1.3315, the May 8 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at 1.3533, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 138.09 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 137.29 High May 11 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 136.75 High May 12
• RES 1: 136.59 High Jun 1
• PRICE: 136.22 @ 05:14 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 135.06/134.15 50-day EMA / Low May 30
• SUP 2: 132.83 Low May 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 132.71 76.4%retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 132.37 Low Mar 10

Bund futures remain in an uptrend and the contract is holding on to its recent highs. Price has cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this strengthens the current bull cycle. A continuation higher would open 136.75, the May 16 high ahead of a key resistance at 137.29, the May 11 high. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 134.15, the May 30 low. A break is required to signal bearish reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Trading At Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 119.120 High May 4 and key resistance
• RES 3: 119.020 High May 11
• RES 2: 118.610 High May 16
• RES 1: 118.400 High Jun 1
• PRICE: 118.200 @ 05:25 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 117.644 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 117.080/116.550 Low May 30 / 26
• SUP 3: 116.420 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.170 Low Mar 13

Bobl futures maintain a bullish tone and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Price is also trading above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this strengthens the short-term bull cycle. A continuation higher would open 118.610, the May 16 high. Further out, key short-term resistance is at 119.120, the May 4 high. On the downside, initial support is at 117.644, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Short-Term Bull Theme Intact

• RES 4: 106.020 High May 11
• RES 3: 105.910 High May 16
• RES 2: 105.775 High May 17
• RES 1: 105.675 High Jun 1
• PRICE: 105.600 @ 05:41 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 105.490 Wednesday’s low
• SUP 2: 105.300/160 Low May 30 / 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally

Schatz futures are trading at this weeks’ highs. The contract has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs which has strengthened bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards 105.775, the May 17 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger, has been defined at 105.160, the May 26 low. Initial support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 105.490 where a break would undermine the current bullish theme.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 98.95 Low May 18
• RES 3: 98.80 High May 22
• RES 2: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 97.78 High May 23
• PRICE: 97.29 @ Close Jun 1
• SUP 1: 94.91/21 Low May 30 / 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 94.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 93.45 1.618 projection of the Feb 2 - 28 - Mar 20 swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 92.66 Low Oct 14 2022 (cont)

Gilt futures have recovered from 94.21, the May 26 low. Recent gains are considered corrective and the primary short-term trend condition remains bearish. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a bear cycle. A resumption of weakness would open the 94.00 handle next. The bear trigger is 94.21, the May 26 low. Initial resistance is at 97.78, the May 23 high.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Impulsive Bull Rally Extends

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.17 High Mar 24 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 116.97 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 116.80 High Jun 1
• PRICE: 116.66 @ Close Jun 2
• SUP 1: 115.60 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 114.06/112.60 Low May 30 / 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 4: 111.05 Low Mar 8

BTP futures traded higher again Thursday. The contract has this week cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this strengthens current short-term bullish conditions. Furthermore, 115.89, the May 11 high, has been cleared and this paves the way for an extension towards 117.17, the Mar 24 high. On the downside, initial, initial firm support lies at 114.06, the May 30 low. A break of this level would signal a possible reversal.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Remains Above Wednesday’s Low

• RES 4: 4457.50 0.5 proj of the Mar 20 - Apr 21 - May 4 price swing
• RES 3: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 1: 4301.40/4362.00 20-day EMA / High May 29
• PRICE: 4286.00 @ 06:41 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 4216.00 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded lower Wednesday and cleared the 50-day EMA and support at 4252.00, the May 25 low. Price has also pierced support at 4233.00, the May 4 low and a key short-term level. A clear break of 4233.00 would signal a potential reversal and highlight a stronger bearish theme. This would open the 4200.00 handle. Price has recovered from this week’s low. Gains appear corrective, initial firm resistance is 4362.00, May 29 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4327.50 High Aug 16 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4288.00 High Aug 19 2022
• RES 1: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a medium-term bull trigger
• PRICE: 4237.25 @ 07:13 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 4173.34/4114.00 20-day EMA / Low May 24
• SUP 2: 4062.25 Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: 4052.50 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4022.75 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - May 1 bull leg

S&P E-minis trend conditions remain bullish and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. The bounce from 4114.00, the May 24 low, means that support around the 50-day EMA has remained intact. The average intersects at 4138.48 and a clear break of it is required to signal a reversal. Key resistance is at 4244.00, the Feb 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend that started on Mar 13.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q3) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: $84.56 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.47 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $77.58/80.08 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 28
• RES 1: $75.92 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $74.97 @ 06:58 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: $71.20 - Low May 4
• SUP 2: $70.06 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

Brent futures traded lower Wednesday. This reinforces short-term bearish conditions and this week’s move lower has resulted in a breach of support at $73.25, the May 15 low. The clear break of this level signals scope for weakness towards $71.20 the May 4 low and $70.06, the Mar 20 low and key support. Key resistance is at $77.58, the 50-day EMA. The latest recovery is considered corrective - for now.

WTI TECHS: (N3) Outlook Remains Bearish Despite The Latest Bounce

• RES 4: $80.93 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.00 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.74 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $73.68/74.73 - 50-day EMA / High May 24
• PRICE: $70.81 @ 07:08 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: $66.46 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - 24 rally
• SUP 2: $63.90 - Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures remain in a bear mode position. The strong sell-off this week has resulted in a break of support at $69.39, the May 15 low. The clear breach strengthens bearish conditions and paves the way for weakness towards $63.90, the May 4 low. On the upside, key resistance is at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at $73.68, where a break would be seen as a bullish development. The most recent recovery is considered corrective.

GOLD TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $2063.0 - High May 4
• RES 2: $2022.6 - High May 12
• RES 1: $1985.3 - High May 24 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $1979.5 @ 07:12 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: $1932.2/18.3 - Low May 31 / Low Mar 17
• SUP 2: $1903.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle

The bear cycle in Gold remains intact and short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. The yellow metal has this week pierced trendline support drawn from Nov 3 2022. A clear breach of this trendline, at $1944.7, would reinforce bearish conditions and open $1903.5, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Clearance of this level is required to signal a short-term reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Correction Extends

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5
• RES 1: $24.022/24.492 - Intraday high / Low Apr 25
• PRICE: $23.906 @ 08:12 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: $22.682 - Low May 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $22.157 - Low Mar 21
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

The Silver trend condition remains bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. The May 11 sell-off confirmed a double top reversal following the break of $24.492, the Apr 25 low. The subsequent bearish extension has reinforced the importance of this reversal signal. Sights are set on $22.284 next, a Fibonacci retracement level. Initial firm resistance is seen at $24.492, the double top mid-point.