MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/GBP Bull Cycle Extends

Price Signal Summary – EUR/GBP Bull Cycle Extends

• A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and the recent pullback still appears to be a correction. The latest move lower has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. Attention is on initial key support at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 4370.75. The Eurostoxx 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the pair has recovered from Monday’s low. A bearish cycle since Jun 16 resulted in a correction. The contract breached support at 4301.00, the Jun 8 low.
• EURUSD is trading lower and the pair remains below Tuesday’s high of 1.0977. Key support to watch is at 1.0852, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback. The primary trend direction in EURGBP remains down and S/T gains are considered corrective. However, yesterday’s rally strengthens the current bull cycle, signalling scope for a continuation. The 20-day EMA has been cleared and resistance at the 50-day EMA has been tested. EURJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the cross is holding on to its latest gains. This week’s price action reinforces the current bullish theme and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bearish and the yellow metal is trading at this week’s lows. Fresh trend lows reinforce current bearish conditions, confirming a resumption of the downtrend and extending the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. WTI futures remain in a bear mode condition and short-term gains are considered corrective. Attention is on support at $67.21, the May 31 low, that has recently been pierced.
• Bund futures remain below Tuesday’s high. The contract has this week breached resistance at 134.77, the Jun 12 high. These latest gains have eased recent bearish pressure and the breach of 134.77 signals scope for a stronger recovery towards 135.85. Recent gains in Gilt futures resulted in a break of resistance at the 20-day EMA. The contract has since pulled back. Short-term gains are considered corrective and a continuation higher would expose key resistance at 97.64, the Jun 1 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 3: 1.1095 High Apr 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1054 High May 8
• RES 1: 1.0977/1012 High Jun 27 / 22 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.0891 @ 05:38 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 1.0852/04 50-day EMA / Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 1.0733 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 1.0667 Low Jun 6
• SUP 4: 1.0635 Low May 31 and the bear trigger

EURUSD is trading lower and the pair remains below Tuesday’s high of 1.0977. Key support to watch is at 1.0852, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback. This would open 1.0804, the Jun 15 low and 1.0733, the Jun 12 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 1.1012, the Jun 22 high. A break would resume the recent bull cycle.

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.2977 0.764 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2877 High Apr 25 2022
• RES 2: 1.2849 0.618 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2760 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 1.2623 @ 05:50 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 1.2607 Low Jun 28
• SUP 2: 1.2543 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2433 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 1.2369 Low Jun 5 and a key support

The primary uptrend in GBPUSD remains intact, however, a corrective cycle is still in play. Wednesday’s move lower confirms an extension of the current bearish cycle and the pair breached support at 1.2649, the 20-day EMA. The break of this average signals scope for a deeper pullback and exposes the 50-day EMA, at 1.2543. Initial resistance is 1.2760, the Jun 27 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 1. 2849.

EURGBP TECHS: Tests Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.8790 Trendline resistance drawn from the Feb 3 high
• RES 3: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 1: 0.8658 High Jun 28
• PRICE: 0.8626 @ 06:07 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 0.8594/36 Low Jun 28 / Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 0.8518 Low Jun 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8491 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle

The primary trend direction in EURGBP remains down and S/T gains are considered corrective. However, yesterday’s rally strengthens the current bull cycle, signalling scope for a continuation. The 20-day EMA has been cleared and resistance at the 50-day EMA has been tested - at 0.8653. A clear break of the EMA would expose 0.8719, May 23 high. Initial firm support has been defined at 0.8536, Jun 23 low. 0.8518 is the bear trigger, the Jun 19 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Continues To Climb

• RES 4: 146.12 76.4% Oct-Jan Downleg
• RES 3: 145.66 1.50 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 2: 145.48 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 145.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 144.57 @ 06:33 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 143.29 Low Jun 27
• SUP 2: 141.89 Former bull channel top drawn from the Jan 16 high
• SUP 3: 141.21/53 Low Jun 20 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 139.85 Low Jun 16

Another bullish session in USDJPY and the pair is holding on to this week’s gains. The pair has breached 144.40 - the 1.382 projection of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing and the break signals scope for 145.48, resistance at the 2.0% 10-dma envelope. Technically, USDJPY is the most overbought (as per the 14-day RSI) since mid-October. Key S/T support is at 141.22 the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a deeper correction.

EURJPY TECHS: Maintains A Bullish Tone

• RES 4: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 159.09 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 158.72 2.00 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 158.00 High Jun 28
• PRICE: 157.33 @ 06:49 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 155.06/154.05 Low Jun 23 / 20 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 153.94 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 151.61 Low Jun 15
• SUP 4: 150.92 50-day EMA

EURJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the cross is holding on to its latest gains. This week’s price action reinforces the current bullish theme and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting positive market sentiment. The focus is on 158.72, a Fibonacci projection. Initial key support is at 155.06, the Jun 23 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6857/6900 High Jun 20 / 16 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6710/6806 20-day EMA / High Jun 27
• RES 1: 0.6663 Low Jun 23
• PRICE: 0.6612 @ 07:24 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 0.6596 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6579 Low Jun 5
• SUP 3: 0.6562 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally
• SUP 4: 0.6485 Low Jun 1

AUDUSD remains soft and the pair traded lower Wednesday, extending the reversal that started Jun 16. The recent move lower has resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMA values, suggesting scope for a deeper retracement. 0.6627, 61.8% of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally, has been cleared and this opens 0.6562 next, the 76.4% retracement level. Key resistance is 0.6900, the Jun 16 high. Initial firm resistance is at 0.6710, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 1.3427 High Jun 7
• RES 3: 1.3392 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3355 High Jun 15
• RES 1: 1.3283 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3275 @ 07:58 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 1.3190/3117 Low Jun 28 / 27 and key support
• SUP 2: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the Jun - Oct 2022 bull rally
• SUP 4: 1.2954 Low Sep 13 2022

USDCAD has added to this week’s gains. The recovery is considered corrective and the trend outlook remains bearish. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting current sentiment. A resumption of weakness would open 1.2992, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 1.3283, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3387.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Holding Above Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 136.50 High May 11
• RES 3: 135.85 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.61 High Jun 2
• RES 1: 135.00 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 134.67 @ 05:12 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 133.86/132.47 20-day EMA / Low Jun 22
• SUP 2: 132.12 Low May 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 131.89 1.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 131.21 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bund futures remain below Tuesday’s high. The contract has this week breached resistance at 134.77, the Jun 12 high. These latest gains have eased recent bearish pressure and the breach of 134.77 signals scope for a stronger recovery towards 135.85, the Jun 1 high. Initial support lies at the 20-day EMA, at 133.86. A break would be a bearish development. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 132.12, the May 26 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 117.700 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 117.200 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 116.990/117.010 High Jun 12 / 7
• RES 1: 116.450 High Jun 26
• PRICE: 116.220 @ 05:30 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 115.860/320 Low Jun 28 / Low Jun 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 115.198 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.986 1.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.815 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bobl futures continue to trade below Monday’s high of 116.450. The contract has recently pierced the 20-day EMA which intersects at 116.220. However, recent gains are considered corrective and the outlook remains bearish. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on 115.198, a Fibonacci projection. A clear break of the 20-day EMA would highlight a bullish threat.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 105.550 High Jun 12 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 105.495 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 105.193 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.130 High Jun 26
• PRICE: 105.020 @ 05:40 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 104.804 1.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 2: 104.740 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.695 Low Mar 10 (cont)
• SUP 4: 104.597 1.764 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend and recent gains appear to be a correction. Last week’s fresh cycle lows confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This extends the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on 104.804 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance to watch is at 105.193, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Remains Below Last Week’s High

• RES 4: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 97.64 High Jun 1 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: 97.43 High Jun 2
• RES 1: 97.00 High Jun 23
• PRICE: 95.97 @ Close Jun 28
• SUP 1: 95.25/93.88 Low Jun 27 / 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 93.45 1.618 proj of the Feb 2 - 28 - Mar 20 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 93.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 92.66 Low Oct 14 2022 (cont)

Recent gains in Gilt futures resulted in a break of resistance at the 20-day EMA. The contract has since pulled back. Short-term gains are considered corrective and a continuation higher would expose key resistance at 97.64, the Jun 1 high. The medium-term trend condition is bearish - a stronger reversal lower and a break of 93.88, the Jun 20 low, would confirm a resumption of the trend.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 118.41 1.00 projection of May 26 - Jun 2 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 117.60 High Jun 26
• PRICE: 117.01 @ Close Jun 28
• SUP 1: 116.00/114.61 20-day EMA / Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 113.83 Low Jun 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

BTP futures traded to a fresh cycle high on Monday. Price has breached resistance at 117.16, the Jun 16 high and a short-term bull trigger. This reinforces a bullish condition and signals scope for a climb towards the 118.00 handle next. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull mode condition. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 114.61, the Jun 15 low. A break would highlight a potential reversal.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Primary Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4487.00 1.50 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4472.40 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 1: 4438.00 20-day EMA / High Jun 16 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 4370.00 @ 06:39 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 4262.00 Low Jun 26
• SUP 2: 4241.00 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4150.00 Low Mar 29

The Eurostoxx 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the pair has recovered from Monday’s low. A bearish cycle since Jun 16 resulted in a correction. The contract breached support at 4301.00, the Jun 8 low. This level represented a key short-term support and an extension lower would expose 4241.00, the May 31 low and an important medium-term support point. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 4438.00, the Jun 16 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4556.71 2.382 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 4532.08 2.236 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 4530.58 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 13 low
• RES 1: 4493.75 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4419.00 @ 07:07 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 4370.75 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4288.93 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4154.75 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 4098.25 Low May 4 and a key support

A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and the recent pullback still appears to be a correction. The latest move lower has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. Attention is on initial key support at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 4370.75. A break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback. On the upside, the bull trigger is 4493.75, the Jun 16 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q3) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $84.56 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.47 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $80.08 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $77.24/78.73 - High Jun 21 / 5 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: $73.65 @ 06:47 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: $71.50 - Low May 31
• SUP 2: $71.20 - Low Jun 20 / Low May 4
• SUP 3: $70.06 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Despite yesterday’s gains, a bearish threat in Brent futures remains present. Scope is seen for a move towards $71.20, the May 4 low, ahead of $70.06, the Mar 20 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode position and this highlights a downtrend. On the upside, clearance of $78.73, the Jun 5 high, would alter the picture. Initial firm resistance is at $77.24, the Jun 21 high.

WTI TECHS: (Q3) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $80.39 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $78.62 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.35 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $72.72/75.70 - High Jun 21 / High Jun 5 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $69.16 @ 06:55 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: $66.96 - Low Jun 12
• SUP 2: $64.41 - Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures remain in a bear mode condition and short-term gains are considered corrective. Attention is on support at $67.21, the May 31 low, that has recently been pierced. A clear break would open $64.41, the May 4 low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting a downtrend. The contract is trading below resistance at $75.70, the Jun 5 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.

GOLD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $2063.0 - High May 4
• RES 2: $2022.6 - High May 12
• RES 1: $1939.8/85.3 - 20-day EMA / High May 24 and key resistance
• PRICE: $1904.8 @ 07:11 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: $1902.9 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 4: $1827.8 - Low MAr 10

Trend conditions in Gold remain bearish and the yellow metal is trading at this week’s lows. Fresh trend lows reinforce current bearish conditions, confirming a resumption of the downtrend and extending the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $1885.8, the Mar 15 low. Key resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Initial resistance is $1939.8, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.477/26.135 - High May 11 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $23.277/24.530 - 20-day EMA / High Jun 12
• PRICE: $22.686 @ 08:03 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $20.591 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

A bearish theme in Silver remains intact and the latest gains are considered corrective. The metal has recently cleared support at $22.682, the May 26 low and bear trigger, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This paves the way for a move towards the $22.00 handle and $21.375, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key resistance has been refined at $24.530, the Jun 12 high. A break of this level would highlight a reversal.