MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/GBP Pierces Key Supports

Price Signal Summary – EUR/GBP Pierces Key Supports

• The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact, however, a corrective cycle has resulted in a pullback from the recent high of 5368.25 (May 23). The latest move down resulted in a print below support at the 50-day EMA, at 5216.53. Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade above Thursday's low of 4950.00. The recent move down appears to be a correction, but note that support at the 50-day EMA, at 4967.00, has been pierced.
• EURUSD traded higher Monday, starting the week on a bullish note. The move higher has resulted in a break of 1.0895, the May 16 high and bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the bull trend and confirms a flag formation on the daily chart. EURGBP remains in consolidation mode. A bear trend is in play and attention is on last week’s low of 0.8484, the May 29 low and bear trigger. Note too that key supports have recently been pierced; the 0.8500 pivot level, and an important support zone between 0.8498 and 0.8493. A bull cycle in AUDUSD that started Apr 19 remains intact and recent short-term weakness still appears to have been a correction. A key support to watch lies at 0.6593, the 50-day EMA. It remains intact, however, a clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
• A bear cycle in Gold remains in play for now, and the yellow metal is trading closer to its recent lows. The medium-term trend structure is bullish and the recent move down appears to be a correction that is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. WTI futures traded sharply lower Monday, starting the week on a bearish note. The contract has cleared support at $76.15, the May 24 low, and breached $75.64, the Mar 11 low. This reinforces a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension near-term.
• A bear cycle in Bund futures remains in play and last week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce this theme. Short-term gains are considered corrective. The contract has breached the key support and bear trigger at 129.53, the Apr 25 low. Gilt futures have recovered from last week’s low of 95.33 (May 29). For now, the move higher is considered corrective. Last week’s impulsive sell-off resulted in a break of support around 95.87, the May 1 low. The clear break strengthens a bearish theme.

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Flag Confirmed

• RES 4: 1.0981 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0964 High Mar 13
• RES 2: 1.0933 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0916 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.0909 @ 05:56 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: 1.0826 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0788 Low May 30 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.0766 Low May 13
• SUP 4: 1.0724 Low May 9

EURUSD traded higher Monday, starting the week on a bullish note. The move higher has resulted in a break of 1.0895, the May 16 high and bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the bull trend and confirms a flag formation on the daily chart. Moving average studies also highlight an uptrend. The break higher opens 1.0933 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch lies at 1.0788, the May 30 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Fresh Short-Term Trend High

• RES 4: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2859 1.236 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2817 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2810 @ 06:03 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: 1.2685/1.2634 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.2510 Low May 14
• SUP 3: 1.2446 Low May 9 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 1.2423 Low Apr 24

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish. Monday’s rally and print above 1.2801, the May 29 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of the rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. The focus is on a climb towards 1.2859, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is 1.2685, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.8599 1.0% High May 9 and 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8552 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8541 High May 31
• PRICE: 0.8516 @ 06:24 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: 0.8484 Low May 29
• SUP 2: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 3: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2023
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022

EURGBP remains in consolidation mode. A bear trend is in play and attention is on last week’s low of 0.8484, the May 29 low and bear trigger. Note too that key supports have recently been pierced; the 0.8500 pivot level, and an important support zone between 0.8498, the Feb 14 low, and 0.8493, the Aug 23 ‘23 low. A clear breach of these price points would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8541, Friday’s high.

USDJPY TECHS: Trades Through The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 160.17 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 158.12 76.4% retracement of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off
• RES 2: 157.99 High May 1
• RES 1: 157.71 High May 29
• PRICE: 156.11 @ 06:40 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: 154.65 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 153.81 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low
• SUP 3: 151.86 Low May 3
• SUP 4: 150.81 Low Apr 5

The trend outlook in USDJPY remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to be a correction - for now. However, the pair has pierced support at the 20-day EMA. A stronger reversal would refocus attention on key support at 154.65, the 50-day EMA, and 153.81, a trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low. A clear break of this support zone would be bearish. For bulls, a move above 157.71, the May 29 high, would resume the short-term uptrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 173.31 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 192.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 171.56 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 170.89 High Jun 3
• PRICE: 170.18 @ 07:03 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: 169.16 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 167.05 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low
• SUP 3: 165.64 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 164.02 Low May 3

EURJPY is trading at its recent highs. The medium-term trend structure is bullish and sights are on 171.56, the Apr 29 high and a key resistance. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Initial support to watch is 169.16, the 20-day EMA. A break of it would expose key trendline support drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low, at 167.05. A clear breach of this line would highlight a potential reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.6771 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 1: 0./6714 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6666 @ 08:03 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: 0.6593 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6558 Low May 8
• SUP 3: 0.6465 Low May 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6407 Low Apr 22

A bull cycle in AUDUSD that started Apr 19 remains intact and recent short-term weakness still appears to have been a correction. A key support to watch lies at 0.6593, the 50-day EMA. It remains intact, however, a clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement to 0.6558 initially, the May 8 low. For bulls, a continuation higher would pave the way for 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement. The bull trigger is 0.6714, May 16 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Support Holds For Now

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3748/85 61.8% of the Apr 16 - Mar 16 bear leg / High Apr 30
• PRICE: 1.3653 @ 08:06 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: 1.3590 Low May 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

USDCAD remains below last week’s high. A bull trend is intact and the latest move down is deemed corrective. Key supports at 1.3645, the 50-day EMA, and 1.3610, the May 3 low, remain intact. They have been pierced, however, a clear break of both price points is required to threaten the bullish theme and instead signal scope for a deeper retracement. A stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 132.89 38.2% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 25 bear cycle
• RES 3: 132.55 High Apr 15
• RES 2: 131.03/132.11 50-day EMA / High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 130.28 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 129.88 @ 05:31 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: 128.73 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 128.42 Low Nov 1 ‘23 (cont)
• SUP 3: 128.26 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 127.56 Low Oct 26 2023 (cont)

A bear cycle in Bund futures remains in play and last week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce this theme. Short-term gains are considered corrective. The contract has breached the key support and bear trigger at 129.53, the Apr 25 low. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year and paves the way for 128.42 next, the Nov 1 ‘23 low (cont). Initial resistance is at 130.28, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Trend Structure Is Bearish

• RES 4: 117.880 High Apr 15
• RES 2: 117.620 High Apr 19
• RES 3: 116.965/117.440 High 50-day EMA / High May 16
• RES 1: 116.451 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 116.220 @ 05:55 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: 115.600 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 115.410 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.250 Low Oct 23 2023 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.130 Low Oct 19 2023 (cont)

A downtrend in Bobl futures remains intact and last week’s extension lower reinforces current conditions. The latest recovery is considered corrective. The move down confirms a resumption of the trend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This opens 115.410, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 116.470, 20-day EMA. Key resistance and the reversal trigger is at 117.440, the May 16 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Trend Direction Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 105.790 High Mar 25 and key resistance
• RES 3: 105.680 High Apr 12
• RES 2 105.395 High May 31
• RES 1: 105.105/318 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 105.020 @ 05:40 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: 104.880 Low May 24 and 31
• SUP 2: 104.800 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.745 Low Sep 26 2023 (cont) and a key support
• SUP 4: 104.683 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 25 price swing

Schatz futures remain in consolidation mode. The trend direction is unchanged and remains down. Recent bearish price action resulted in a break of key support and a bear trigger at 105.045, the Apr 30 low. The move down paves the way for an extension towards 104.800, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a clear downtrend. Initial firm resistance is seen at 105.105, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U4) Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 98.25 High May
• RES 3: 98.12 High May 17
• RES 2: 97.44 High May 23 and a key near-term hurdle
• RES 1: 97.23 High Jun 3
• PRICE: 97.06 @ Close Jun 3
• SUP 1: 96.26/95.33 Low Jun 3 / Low May 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 95.17 2.382 proj of the May 16 - 20- 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 95.02 2.50 proj of the May 16 - 20- 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 94.87 2.618 proj of the May 16 - 20- 21 price swing

Gilt futures have recovered from last week’s low of 95.33 (May 29). For now, the move higher is considered corrective. Last week’s impulsive sell-off resulted in a break of support around 95.87, the May 1 low. The clear break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension towards 95.17 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 97.44, the May 23 high.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 120.28 High Mar 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 119.55 High Mar 27
• RES 2: 119.00 High May 16 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 117.57 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 117.20 @ Close Jun 3
• SUP 1: 116.08 Low May 29
• SUP 2: 115.76 Low Apr 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 115.70 Low Dec 8 ‘23 (cont)
• SUP 4: 114.74 1.236 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 22 - Mar 14 price swing

BTP futures traded sharply lower last week and in the process cleared support at 116.94, the May 15 low. The move down strengthens a bearish threat and a continuation would open 115.76, the Apr 25 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would highlight an important technical break. On the upside, initial resistance is at 117.57, the 50-day EMA. Firmer resistance is seen at 119.00, the May 16 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 5162.00 High Nov 2000
• RES 3: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 5110.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 5082.00 High May 28
• PRICE: 5008.00 @ 06:16 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: 4950.00 Low May 30
• SUP 2: 4936.00 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4894.90 61.8% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 4862.00 Low Apr 25

Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade above Thursday's low of 4950.00. The recent move down appears to be a correction, but note that support at the 50-day EMA, at 4967.00, has been pierced. A clear break of the average would undermine the short-term bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 4894.90, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is seen at 5082.00, the May 28 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Friday’s Low Remains Intact

• RES 4: 5417.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5372.73 1.764 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5368.25 High May 23 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 5293.50 @ 07:24 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: 5205.50 Low May 31 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 5155.75 Low May 6
• SUP 3: 5099.25 Low May 3
• SUP 4: 5036.25 Low May 2

The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact, however, a corrective cycle has resulted in a pullback from the recent high of 5368.25 (May 23). The latest move down resulted in a print below support at the 50-day EMA, at 5216.53 A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The recovery from Friday’s low is a positive development, a continuation would open 5368.25 and a breach of this level resumes the trend.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q4) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $91.11 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.22 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $84.72/87.77 - High May 29 / High Apr 26
• RES 1: $80.44 - Low May 24 and a recent breakout level
• PRICE: $77.73 @ 07:07 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: $77.42 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle
• SUP 2: $75.63 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $73.47 - Low Dec 13 and a key support
• SUP 4: $71.20 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - May 24 - 29 price swing

Brent futures have traded sharply lower so far this week. The move down has resulted in the breach of a number of important short-term supports. Price is through $80.44, the May 24 low, and $79.87, 61.8% of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle. The break lower reinforces a bearish theme and signals potential for an extension to $77.42, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm resistance is $84.72, the May 29 high.

WTI TECHS: (N4) Clears Support

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $86.93 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $83.63/86.16 - High Apr 26 / 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $76.15/80.62 - Low May 24 / High May 1
• PRICE: $73.44 @ 07:18 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: $73.24 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull leg
• SUP 2: $71.33 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $69.25 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support
• SUP 4: $66.79 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - May 24 - 29 price swing

WTI futures traded sharply lower Monday, starting the week on a bearish note. The contract has cleared support at $76.15, the May 24 low, and breached $75.64, the Mar 11 low. This reinforces a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension near-term. Sights are on $73.24, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at $80.62, the May 29 high.

GOLD TECHS: Remains Above Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $2528.4 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2383.8 - High May 23
• PRICE: $2350.5 @ 07:21 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: $2309.5 - 50- day EMA
• SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

A bear cycle in Gold remains in play for now, and the yellow metal is trading closer to its recent lows. The medium-term trend structure is bullish and the recent move down appears to be a correction that is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $2452.5 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 50-day EMA, at $2309.5, represents a key support.

SILVER TECHS: Short-Term Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $35.745 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.887 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20
• PRICE: $30.542 @ 08:09 BST Jun 4
• SUP 1: $30.170/29.782 - 20-day EMA / Intraday low
• SUP 2: $28.449 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Silver traded lower Monday. The trend remains bullish and the latest move down appears to be a correction. The retracement is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains resulted in a break of resistance at $29.797, the Apr 12 high. The breach confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has opened $33.887 next, a Fibonacci projection. A key support zone to watch lies between $30.170 - 28.449, the 20- and 50-day EMA values.