MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/GBP S/T Signals Remain Bearish

Price Signal Summary – EUR/GBP S/T Signals Remain Bearish

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish despite the latest recovery - a correction. Price has recently cleared a key support at 3960.75, the Mar 2 low, to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 2. The Eurostoxx 50 futures outlook remains bearish despite yesterday's rebound from the session low - short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent break of the 4000.00 handle signals scope for weakness towards 3865.00, the Jan 4 low and further out towards the 3800.00 handle.
• EURUSD traded higher Monday, however, price remains below resistance at 1.0760, the Mar 15 high. This level represents a key short-term resistance where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme. EURGBP short-term signals remain bearish and the cross is trading at its recent lows. Price has recently breached support at 0.8755, the Feb 28 low and recently pierced 0.8722, the Jan 19 low. EURJPY traded lower Monday before finding some support. The cross continues to appear vulnerable and short-term gains are considered corrective. Last week’s bearish price action signals scope for a continuation lower towards the 138.00 handle.
• A strong rally in Gold Friday saw the yellow metal trade to fresh YTD high of $1989.4. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since late September 2022. Monday’s gains resulted in a print above the psychological $2000 handle and this further strengthens current bullish conditions. WTI futures remain vulnerable and the contract traded to a fresh low Monday before finding some support. Last week’s sell-off resulted in the break of key support at $71.10, the Dec 9 low.
• Bund futures traded higher Monday and started this week on a volatile note once again. The near-term outlook remains bullish. The 140.00 psychological handle has been pierced, a clear break would open 140.47, a Fibonacci retracement. Gilt futures remain above support at 103.12, the Mar 15 low. The outlook is bullish - for now - and potential is seen for a climb towards the 108.00 handle. The contract traded higher Friday and again Monday to reinforce bullish conditions.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Resistance Stays Intact - For Now

• RES 4: 1.0836 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 8 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0803 High Feb 14 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0775 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0760 High Mar 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.0712 @ 05:34 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 1.0653/1.0516 50-day EMA / Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 1.0484 Low Jan 6 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.0461 Trendline support drawn from the Sep 28 2022 low
• SUP 4: 1.0394 Low Dec 1

EURUSD traded higher Monday, however, price remains below resistance at 1.0760, the Mar 15 high. This level represents a key short-term resistance where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme. The sell-off on Mar 15, resulted in a brief test below key support at 1.0525, Mar 8 low. A clear breach of this support would strengthen a bearish threat and open 1.0484, the Jan 6 low and 1.0461, a trendline support drawn from the Sep 28 2022 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Clears Resistance

• RES 4: 1.2448 High Jan 23 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 3: 1.2401 High Feb 2
• RES 2: 1.2296 76.4% retracement of the Jan 23 - Mar 8 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2285 High Mar 20
• PRICE: 1.2259 @ 05:52 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 1.2161 Low Mar 20
• SUP 2: 1.2080/2011 50-day EMA / Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.1908 Low Mar 10
• SUP 4: 1.1893 200-dma

GBPUSD traded higher Monday and in the process cleared resistance at 1.2204, the Mar 14 high. This has strengthened the case for bulls and note that resistance at 1.2269 has been pierced, the Feb 14 high. Sights are on 1.2296 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support lies at 1.2011, the Mar 15 low. A move below this level would reinstate the recent bearish theme.

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.8925 High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8900 Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high
• RES 2: 0.8890 High Mar 10
• RES 1: 0.8819/0.8844 20-day EMA / High Mar 15
• PRICE: 0.8740 @ 06:02 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 2: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.8691 Low Dec 19
• SUP 4: 0.8649 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg

EURGBP short-term signals remain bearish and the cross is trading at its recent lows. Price has recently breached support at 0.8755, the Feb 28 low and recently pierced 0.8722, the Jan 19 low. Clearance of 0.8722 would leave the 0.8700 handle exposed and signal scope for a continuation lower. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8844, the Mar 15 high. A breach of this hurdle would ease bearish pressure and open 0.8900, a trendline resistance.

USDJPY TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 137.91 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 136.99 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 1: 132.65/134.09 High Mar 20 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 131.40 @ 06:28 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 130.54 Low Mar 20
• SUP 2: 129.75 76.4% retracement of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: 128.09 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and key support

The current bear cycle in USDJPY remains in play. The pair traded lower Monday, reinforcing current conditions. 131.31, 61.8% retracement of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally, has been cleared. The break strengthens bearish conditions and sets the scene for weakness towards 129.81, the Feb 10 low. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA. The average intersects at 134.09 where a break is required to ease bearish pressure.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Risk

• RES 4: 144.96 High Mar 15
• RES 3: 143.06 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 142.75 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 142.21 High Mar 17
• PRICE: 140.86 @ 06:40 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 138.83 Low Mar 20
• SUP 2: 138.59 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 137.92 Low Jan 19
• SUP 4: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and a key support

EURJPY traded lower Monday before finding some support. The cross continues to appear vulnerable and short-term gains are considered corrective. Last week’s bearish price action signals scope for a continuation lower towards the 138.00 handle and the short-term bear trigger is yesterday’s low of 138.83. Initial firm resistance is seen at 142.21, the Mar 17 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Correction Appears To Be A Bear Flag

• RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
• RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 2: 0.6781/84 50-day EMA / High Mar 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6748 High Mar 7
• PRICE: 0.6687 @ 07:21 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 0.6590/47 Low Mar 15 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 2: 0.6500 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.6425 2.00 projection of the Feb 2 - 6 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish despite the recent recovery - a shallow correction that appears to be a bear flag. The Mar 7 sell-off reinforced a bearish theme. The break lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and price has breached 0.6629, the Dec 20 low. This signals potential for weakness towards 0.6547, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6784, the Mar 1 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 1.3977 High Oct 13
• RES 2: 1.3898 High Oct 14
• RES 1: 1.3814/3862 High Mar 15 / 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3687 @ 07:24 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 1.3652 Low Mar 14 / 20
• SUP 2: 1.3572 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3515 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21

The recent move lower in USDCAD appears to be a correction that is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains through 1.380 strengthened a bullish theme. Price has cleared the Dec 16 high of 1.3705 and scope is seen for gains towards 1.3977, the Oct 13 high. Initial support is seen at 1.3652, the Mar 14 low. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.3862, the Mar 10 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Bull Trend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 141.06 High Dec 14 (cont)
• RES 3: 140.73 High Jan 19 (cont)
• RES 2: 140.47 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Mar 9 bear leg (cont)
• RES 1: 139.00/140.30 Round number resistance / High Mar 20
• PRICE: 138.33 @ 05:05 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 137.10 Low Mar 20
• SUP 2: 135.73 Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: 134.65 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 133.33 Low Mar 15

Bund futures traded higher Monday and started this week on a volatile note once again. The near-term outlook remains bullish. The 140.00 psychological handle has been pierced, a clear break would open 140.47, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to watch this week lies at the 20-day EMA, at 134.65. A reversal lower and a break of this support is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. Initial support is 137.10, Monday’s low.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 121.950 High Oct 4 2022 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 3: 121.290 High Dec 2 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 121.090 High Dec 8 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 120.00/120.610 Round number resistance / High Mar 20
• PRICE: 119.500 @ 05:12 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 118.600 Low Mar 20
• SUP 2: 117.820 Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: 117.175 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 116.370 Low Mar 15

Bobl futures traded higher Monday and conditions remain volatile. Price has traded above 120.00. The outlook remains bullish following last week’s gains and a continuation higher would pave the way for a climb towards 121.090, the Dec 8 2022 high on the continuation chart. On the downside, key short-term support to watch lies at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 117.175. A break would alter the picture.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Bulls Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 107.400 High Oct 28 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 107.170 High Dec 2 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 107.000 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 106.955 High Mar 20
• PRICE: 106.460 @ 05:27 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 106.060/105.760 Low Mar 20 / 17
• SUP 2: 105.575 Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: 105.440 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 105.030 Low Mar 15

Schatz futures traded higher Monday and conditions remain volatile. The outlook is bullish despite yesterday’s pullback from the session high. A continuation of the trend would open the 107.00 handle next. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at the 20-day EMA. The average intersects at 105.440. A break of this EMA would highlight a bearish development. Initial firm support lies at 105.760, the Mar 17 low.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 108.92 High Nov 24 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 3: 108.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 107.78 High Feb 2 and a key resistance (cont)
• RES 1: 106.00/107.33 Round number resistance / High Mar 20
• PRICE: 105.43 @ Close Mar 20
• SUP 1: 104.12 Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 103.26 50.0% retracement of the entire rally from Feb 28
• SUP 3: 102.93 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 102.40 Low Mar 13

Gilt futures remain above support at 103.12, the Mar 15 low. The outlook is bullish - for now - and potential is seen for a climb towards the 108.00 handle. The contract traded higher Friday and again Monday to reinforce bullish conditions. Short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. Firm support is seen at the 20-day EMA, where a break would strengthen any developing bearish threat. The average intersects at 102.93.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 118.97 Low Nov 30 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 118.56 High Jan 19 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 2: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 1: 117.16 High Mar 20
• PRICE: 116.42 @ Close Mar 20
• SUP 1: 114.25/113.02 Low Feb 15 / High Mar 9 and a gap low
• SUP 2: 111.79 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 110.79 Low Mar 7
• SUP 4: 110.25 Low Mar 2 and the bear trigger

BTP futures traded higher Friday and again yesterday to extend the reversal from 110.25, the Mar 2 low. The short-term outlook remains bullish and pullbacks are considered corrective. A continuation higher would open 118.18, the Jan 19 high on the continuation chart and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 113.02, the Mar 9 high and a gap low on the daily chart.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4268.00 High Mar 6 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4193.20 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 4123.00 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 4109.50 50.0% retracement of the Mar 6 - 15 bear leg
• PRICE: 4080.00 @ 05:41 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 3914.00 Low Mar 20
• SUP 2: 3865.00 Low Jan 4
• SUP 3: 3800.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3750.00 Low Dec 30

The Eurostoxx 50 futures outlook remains bearish despite yesterday's rebound from the session low - short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent break of the 4000.00 handle signals scope for weakness towards 3865.00, the Jan 4 low and further out towards the 3800.00 handle. Initial resistance is seen at 4123.00, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance has been defined at 4268.00, the Mar 6 high.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Stays Intact - For Now

• RES 4: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4200.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4119.50 High Mar 6
• RES 1: 4025.01 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3987.25 @ 06:35 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 3839.25 Low Mar 13
• SUP 2: 3822.00 Low Dec 22 and a key support
• SUP 3: 3778.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3724.86 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 - Feb 2 bull cycle

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish despite the latest recovery - a correction. Price has recently cleared a key support at 3960.75, the Mar 2 low, to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 2. The move lower signals scope for an extension towards 3822.00 next, the Dec 22 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 4025.01, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would alter the picture.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K3) Trend Direction Is Down

• RES 4: $88.78 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $84.00/86.75 - High Mar 9 / 7 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $79.76 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $75.92/78.84 - High Mar 17 / Low Feb 6
• PRICE: $73..05 @ 06:39 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: $70.00 - Round number support
• SUP 2: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $64.62 - 1.382 proj of the Nov - Dec - Jan price swing

Brent futures remain vulnerable following last week’s impulsive bearish wave and the contract traded lower Monday, before finding support. Price has breached $76.04, the Dec 12 low and a key medium term chart point. The break confirms a resumption of the medium-term bear trend and paves the way for weakness towards $69.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is $75.92, Friday’s high. Gains would be considered corrective.

WTI TECHS: (K3) Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $81.04 - High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $78.17/80.94 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $73.79 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $69.83/72.71 - High Mar 17 / 15
• PRICE: $67.20 @ 06:47 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: $64.36 - Low Mar 20
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: $63.19 - 1.764 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 - Mar 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $58.41 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 - Mar 7 price swing

WTI futures remains vulnerable and the contract traded to a fresh low Monday before finding some support. Last week’s sell-off resulted in the break of key support at $71.10, the Dec 9 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Note too that price has also cleared the psychological $70.00 handle. Attention is on $62.43, the Dec 2 2021 low (cont). Initial resistance is at $69.83, Friday’s high.

GOLD TECHS: Testing Resistance At The Psychological $2000 Handle

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $2034.0 - 2.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 rally from Feb 28
• RES 1: $2009.7 - High Mar 20
• PRICE: $1983.2 @ 06:07 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: $1959.7 - High Feb 2 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: $1918.3 - Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: $1887.6 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1864.5 - 50-day EMA

A strong rally in Gold Friday saw the yellow metal trade to fresh YTD high of $1989.4. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since late September 2022. Monday’s gains resulted in a print above the psychological $2000 handle and this further strengthens current bullish conditions. It opens $2034.0 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, Friday’s low of $1918.3 marks firm support.

SILVER TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: $23.520 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 downleg
• RES 3: $23.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $22.829 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 downleg
• RES 1: $22.717 - High Mar 20
• PRICE: $22.472 @ 07:39 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: $21.474 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: $20.591/19.904 - Low Mar 13 / 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 4: $19.232 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg

Silver remains firm having reversed sharply higher from $19.904, the Mar 10 low. The metal is trading at its recent highs. Price has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at $21.896. The clear breach of this EMA strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards $22.829, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, $21.474 marks initial firm support, the Mar 16 low.