MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/JPY Breaches Key Support

Price Signal Summary – EUR/JPY Breaches Key Support

• S&P E-Minis remain vulnerable following last week’s sharp reversal from 4303.00, May 4 high, and this week’s extension of the downtrend. Monday’s move lower resulted in a breach of support at 4056.00, May 2 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a bear mode and short-term gains are still considered corrective. The contract has recently cleared support at 3608.00, Apr 27 low, highlighting a resumption of the current bear cycle.
• EURUSD traded to a fresh cycle low Thursday and cleared support at 1.0472, the Apr 28 low. The move lower confirms a bear flag breakout and a resumption of the primary downtrend. GBPUSD remains bearish - the pair traded softer Thursday, prompting fresh cycle lows. This marks an extension of the sharp sell-off on May 5, that confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. EURJPY fell sharply Thursday and remains vulnerable. The move lower marks an extension of the reversal from Apr 21. The cross has breached a number of important S/T support levels, clearing the 50-day EMA, at 134.99, and the Apr 5 low of 134.30.
• Gold remains vulnerable - Wednesday's move lower confirmed a resumption of the current downtrend. The sell-off resulted in a break of $1848.8, 76.4% of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally. This paves the way for a move towards the $1800.0 level next. A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present, despite the recovery from Wednesday’s low of $98.20. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $111.37, the May 5 high where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.
• Trend signals in Bund futures are unchanged and the outlook remains bearish. This week’s gains are considered corrective. A fresh cycle low on May 9 reinforced the bearish condition and confirmed, once again, an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The trend direction in Gilt futures remains down and gains are considered corrective. Yesterday’s move higher however resulted in a break of resistance at 119.79, the Apr 25 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Flag Breakout

• RES 4: 1.0852 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 1.0758 Low Apr 14 and a recent breakout level
• RES 2: 1.0642 High May 5 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.0529/0618 High May 12 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0396 @ 06:03 BST May 13
• SUP 1: 1.0354 Low May 12
• SUP 2: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.0333 1.236 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.0317 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURUSD traded to a fresh cycle low Thursday and cleared support at 1.0472, the Apr 28 low. The move lower confirms a bear flag breakout and a resumption of the primary downtrend. This also maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies remain in bear mode too, highlighting current sentiment. The focus is on 1.0341 next, the Jan 3 2017 low and key support. Resistance has been defined at 1.0642.

GBPUSD TECHS: Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.2877 High Apr 25
• RES 3: 1.2772 High Apr 26
• RES 2: 1.2638 High May 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2406/2561 High May 9 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2221 @ 06:17 BST May 13
• SUP 1: 1.2162 Low May 22 2020
• SUP 2: 1.2081 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jun ‘21 uptrend
• SUP 3: 1.2000 psychological round number
• SUP 4: 1.1903 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - 28 - May 4 price swing

GBPUSD remains bearish - the pair traded softer Thursday, prompting fresh cycle lows. This marks an extension of the sharp sell-off on May 5, that confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. The move lower maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving average studies are in a bear mode condition. The focus is on 1.2162 next, the May 22 2020 low. Initial resistance is seen at 1.2406, high May 9.

EURGBP TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20 2021
• RES 3: 0.8658/61/58 High Sep 29 2021 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8643 High Sep 30 2021
• RES 1: 0.8619 High May 12
• PRICE: 0.8507 @ 06:24 BST May 13
• SUP 1: 0.8493 Low May 12
• SUP 2: 0.8468 High Apr 27 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 0.8410/8367 50-day EMA / Low May 2
• SUP 4: 0.8313 Low Apr 22

EURGBP reversed initial gains Thursday and failed to remain above the 0.8600 handle, working against the overarching uptrend. A pullback is considered corrective and the trend condition remains bullish. A resumption of strength would open 0.8624, the Oct 1 2021 high and 0.8661, the top of a moving average envelope. Initial firm support is seen at 0.8468, the Apr 27 high and breakout level.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback Finds Support

• RES 4: 133.11 High Apr 4 2002
• RES 3: 132.39 High Apr 15 2002
• RES 2: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 131.35 High May 9 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 128.88 @ 06:30 BST May 13
• SUP 1: 127.52 Low May 12
• SUP 2: 126.95 Low Apr 27 and a key support
• SUP 3: 125.09 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 124.01 Low Apr 11

The USDJPY outlook is bullish despite Thursday’s slip lower and print below the 20-day EMA. Initial key support has been defined at 127.52, yesterday’s low. Trend conditions are bullish. A resumption of gains and a break above 131.35, May 9 high, would clear the path for 131.96, a Fibonacci projection. A move higher would also maintain a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Key trend support is unchanged at 126.95, Apr 27 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Clears Key Support

• RES 4: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 140.87 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 2: 138.32/140.00 High May 9 / High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 136.75 High May 12
• PRICE: 133.94 @ 06:39 BST May 13
• SUP 1: 132.66/65 Low May 12 / 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: 132.27 100-dma
• SUP 3: 132.20 50% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 21 bull phase
• SUP 4: 131.59 Low Mar 22

EURJPY fell sharply Thursday and remains vulnerable. The move lower marks an extension of the reversal from Apr 21. The cross has breached a number of important S/T support levels, clearing the 50-day EMA, at 134.99, and the Apr 5 low of 134.30. An extension lower would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 132.27 initially - the 100-dma, before the 50% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 21 comes into play. Initial resistance is 136.75.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 0.7266 High May 4/5 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7230 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.7135 Low May 6
• RES 1: 0.6953/7054 High May 12 / High May 11 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6894 @ 06:49 BST May 13
• SUP 1: 0.6829 Low May 12
• SUP 2: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020
• SUP 3: 0.6784 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 2 - 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6759 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 upleg

AUDUSD maintains a bearish tone and resumed its downtrend once again yesterday The move lower marks an extension of the reversal last week from 0.7266, the May 4/5 high. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode, highlighting current sentiment. Support at 0.6968, the Jan 28 low and a bear trigger, has been breached. This opens 0.6805 next, the Jun 22 2020 low. Initial firm resistance is at Wednesday’s high of 0.7054.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.3173 High Nov 13 2020
• RES 3: 1.3168 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3091 High Nov 24 2020
• RES 1: 1.3064 High May 12
• PRICE: 1.2995 @ 06:56 BST May 13
• SUP 1: 1.2914/2814 High May 2 / Low May 6
• SUP 2: 1.2737/14 50-day EMA / Low May 5 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2568 Low Apr 22
• SUP 4: 1.2459 Low Apr 21

USDCAD is trading closer to the week’s highs and the outlook remains bullish. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of 1.2914, May 2 high, and key resistance at 1.2964, the Dec 20 2021 high. The break of the latter marks an important medium-term bullish technical development and reinforces the positive outlook. This has opened 1.3168 next, the upper band of a MA envelope. Initial support is at 1.2914. Key support lies at 1.2714, Apr 29 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 157.87 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 157.06 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 156.00 High Apr 28 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 155.33 High May 12
• PRICE: 154.78 @ 04:54 BST May 13
• SUP 1: 151.87/150.49 Low May 11 / Low May 9
• SUP 2: 150.15 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 150.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 149.49 Low Jul 13 2015 (cont)

Trend signals in Bund futures are unchanged and the outlook remains bearish. This week’s gains are considered corrective. A fresh cycle low on May 9 reinforced the bearish condition and confirmed, once again, an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. MA studies remain in a bear mode. Attention is on 150.15 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm trend resistance to watch is at 156.00, the Apr 28 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Trades Above Its 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 129.350 High Apr 4 and a reversal point
• RES 3: 128.830 High Apr 7
• RES 2: 128.686 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 128.380 High May 12
• PRICE: 128.100 @ 05:02 BST May 13
• SUP 1: 126.770/126.010 Low May 11 / Low May 6 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 125.450 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 125.260 Low Apr 24 20014 (cont)

Bobl futures are trading above recent lows and the contract is holding onto this week’s gains. Price has traded above the 20-day EMA and probed resistance at 128.310, the Apr 14/28 high. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of the 50-day EMA at 128.686. Gains are considered corrective and the primary trend direction remains down. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support at 126.010.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 111.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 110.855 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 110.714 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 110.690 High MAy 13
• PRICE: 110.585 @ 05:06 BST May 13
• SUP 1: 110.210/109.980 Low May 10 / Low May 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 109.777 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 109.555 Low Oct 31 2011 (cont)
• SUP 4: 109.340 Low Oct 28 011 (cont)

The trend direction in Schatz futures remains down and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. The contract has traded above its 20-day EMA and the extension higher today has resulted in a break of 110.540, the Apr 28 high and a key resistance. This opens 110.714 next, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 109.980, May 6 low. A break would resume the downtrend.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Trades Above Key S/T Resistance

• RES 4: 122.72 High Mar 18
• RES 3: 122.35 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 121.84 50.0% retracement of the Mar 1 - May 9 bear leg
• RES 1: 121.07 High May 12
• PRICE: 120.68 @ Close May 12
• SUP 1: 120.01 Low May 12
• SUP 2: 118.25/116.87 Low May 11 / Low May 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 116.35 Low Dec 30 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.40 1.00 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing

The trend direction in Gilt futures remains down and gains are considered corrective. Yesterday’s move higher however resulted in a break of resistance at 119.79, the Apr 25 high. This signals potential for a stronger short-term corrective phase and opens 121.84 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support has been defined at 116.87, the May 9 low. This is also the bear trigger.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Trades Through Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 135.23 High Apr 14
• RES 3: 134.56 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 133.53 High Apr 28
• RES 1: 131.24 High May 12
• PRICE: 130.96@ Close May 13
• SUP 1: 127.24/125.54 Low May 11 / Low May 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 125.02 1.236 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 124.02 Low Mar 18 2020 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 123.41 1.382 proj of the of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing

The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged and the outlook remains bearish - a fresh cycle low print on May 9 reinforced this theme. Over the short-term however, a corrective (bullish) cycle has been established and the contract has traded above a trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 1 high. Price is also above the 20-day EMA. This signals scope for a move towards 133.53, Apr 28 high. Key support has been defined at 125.54, the May 9 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 3883.00 High Apr 21
• RES 2: 3775.00 High May 5
• RES 1: 3664.80 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 3631.00 @ 05:40 BST May 13
• SUP 1: 3466.00 Low May 10
• SUP 2: 3458.90 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 3: 3400.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3309.00 Low Mar 7 and a major support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a bear mode and short-term gains are still considered corrective. The contract has recently cleared support at 3608.00, Apr 27 low, highlighting a resumption of the current bear cycle. This opens 3458.90, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would clear the path for 3309.00, Mar 7 low and a major support. Firm resistance has been defined at 3775.00, May 5 high. A break would alter the picture.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Southbound

• RES 4: 4509.00 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 4393.25 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 4303.50 High Apr 26/28 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4099.00/4297.92 High May 9 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3975.25 @ 06:55 BST May 13
• SUP 1: 3855.00/3843.25 Low May 12 / Low Mar 25 2021 (cont)
• SUP 2: 3820.25 2.50 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 3787.74 2.618 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 3747.52 2.764 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing

S&P E-Minis remain vulnerable following last week’s sharp reversal from 4303.00, May 4 high, and this week’s extension of the downtrend. Monday’s move lower resulted in a breach of support at 4056.00, May 2 low. A clear break of this support confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend and opens 3843.25 next, the Mar 25 2021 low (cont). On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 4303.50, the Apr 26/28 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N2) Remains Below Resistance

• RES 4: $123.44 - High Mar 8
• RES 3: $121.13 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $115.76 - High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $114.00 - High May 5 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: $109.54 @ 05:37 BST May 13
• SUP 1: $101.30 - Low May 11
• SUP 2: $99.25 - Low Apr 25 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: $97.18 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: $92.59 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger

The Brent futures outlook remains bearish, despite the recovery from Wednesday’s $101.30 low. The contract has recently failed to hold on to its high of $114.00, on May 5. The reversal lower means price remains inside its triangle formation, drawn from the Mar 15 low. The attempt at breaking above triangle resistance last week failed, suggesting scope for weakness S/T. Key levels to watch are $101.30 support and resistance at $114.00.

WTI TECHS: (M2) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: $119.95 - High Mar 8
• RES 3: $118.13 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $113.51/113.90 - High Mar 24 / 76.4% of Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 1: $111.37 - High May 5
• PRICE: $107.48 @ 07:02 BST May 13
• SUP 1: $100.68/98.20 - 50-day EMA / Low May 11
• SUP 2: $95.28 - Low Apr 25 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: $92.60 - Low Apr 11 and a key support
• SUP 4: $90.37 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger

A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present, despite the recovery from Wednesday’s low of $98.20. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $111.37, the May 5 high where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme. This would open $113.51, the Mar 24 high. On the downside, the support to watch lies at $98.20. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $1998.4 - High Apr 18 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $1958.4 - High Apr 20
• RES 2: $1909.8/1919.9 - High May 5 / High Apr 29
• RES 1: $1865.4 - High May 10
• PRICE: $1824.3 @ 07:18 BST May 13
• SUP 1: $1811.7 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $1800.0 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021

Gold remains vulnerable - Wednesday's move lower confirmed a resumption of the current downtrend. The sell-off resulted in a break of $1848.8, 76.4% of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally. This paves the way for a move towards the $1800.0 level next. Sights are also set on $1780.4, the Jan 28 low. On the upside, $1909.8, the May 5 high, is seen as the initial firm resistance. A break would signal a possible short-term reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Fresh Cycle Low

• RES 4: $26.943 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 1: $22.865/23.724 - 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $20.834 @ 08:09 BST May 13
• SUP 1: $20.619 - Low May 12
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Silver remains bearish and traded lower again yesterday. Support at $22.008, the Feb 3 low and a bear trigger, has been breached this week. The move lower reinforces the bearish theme and has also resulted in a break of $21.427/423, the Dec 15 2021 low and Sep 29 2021 low. Sights are on $20.983, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term resistance is at $23.255, the 20-day EMA.