MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/JPY Breaks Lower Still
Price Signal Summary - EUR/JPY Breaks Lower Still
- On Friday, S&P E-Minis pierced key resistance and the bull trigger at 6053.25, the Nov 11 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher yesterday and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The latest move higher undermines a recent bearish theme. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4860.94.
- The latest recovery in GBPUSD appears corrective and the move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance is 1.2723, the 20-day EMA and a key short-term hurdle for bulls. It has been pierced, a clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a stronger recovery. USDJPY is trading closer to its recent lows. Last week’s move down marks an extension of the current bear phase. The pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for a deeper retracement, towards 148.17 next. The trend condition in USDCAD remains bullish and the Nov 25 fresh cycle high reinforces this theme. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and marks an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
- Gold is unchanged. The long-term trend condition remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and the Nov 25 move lower reinforces this theme. Attention is on $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support.
- Bund futures traded higher Monday and the contract maintains a firmer tone as it once again extends the current bull cycle. Further gains are likely. Price has traded through 134.87, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. A bullish corrective cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and recent gains reinforces current bullish conditions. Sights are on 96.33 and 96.52 next, Fibonacci projection points.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 1.0937 High NOv 5 / 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.0825 High Nov 7
- RES 2: 1.0739 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0597/98 High Nov 29 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.0494 @ 06:10 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: 1.0425/0335 Low Nov 26 / 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0258 1.500 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0201 61.8% retracement of the Sep 28 - Juk 18 bull leg
A key short-term resistance in EURUSD at 1.0598, the 20-day EMA, remains intact. Monday’s move lower reinforces the short-term importance of this resistance. A clear break of this average is required to signal potential for a stronger recovery. This would open 1.0739, the 50-day EMA and allow for a continued unwinding of the oversold trend condition. The medium-term trend direction is down. The bear trigger lies at 1.0335, the Nov 22 low.
GBPUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.3048 High Nov 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.2961 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.2856 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.2723/50 20-day EMA / High Nov 29
- PRICE: 1.2648 @ 06:25 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: 1.2567/2487 Low Nov 27 / 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.2446 Low May 9
- SUP 3. 1.2367 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 ‘23 - Sep 26 uptrend
- SUP 4: 1.2300 Low Apr 22 and a key support
The latest recovery in GBPUSD appears corrective and the move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance is 1.2723, the 20-day EMA and a key short-term hurdle for bulls. It has been pierced, a clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a stronger recovery. The medium-term trend direction remains down, with moving average studies in a bear-mode set-up. The bear trigger is 1.2487, the Nov 22 low.
EURGBP TECHS: Key Short-Term Supports Holds For Now
- RES 4: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 2: 0.8404 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8353/76 50-day EMA / High Nov 19
- PRICE: 0.8292 @ 06:36 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: 0.8260 Low Nov 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
- SUP 4: 0.8200 Round number support
EURGBP continues to trade below its recent highs. A bullish engulfing candle pattern on Nov 12 highlights a possible short-term reversal and 0.8260, the Nov 11 low, marks a key short-term support. The 20- and 50 day EMAs have been pierced. A clear break of both averages would strengthen the risk of a reversal and open 0.8404, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a breach of 0.8260 would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
USDJPY TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 3: 156.88 2.236 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 2: 155.89/156.75 High Nov 20 / 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 151.40/152.58 50- and 20-day EMA values
- PRICE: 150.01 @ 07:08 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: 149.08 Low Dec 2
- SUP 2: 148.29 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 148.17 50.0% retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 bull leg
- SUP 4: 147.35 Low Oct 8
USDJPY is trading closer to its recent lows. Last week’s move down marks an extension of the current bear phase. The pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for a deeper retracement, towards 148.17 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 156.75, the Nov 15 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 152.58, the 20-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle Low
- RES 4: 165.04/166.69 High Nov 15 / High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 164.76 High Nov 20 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 162.53 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 158.64/162.70 High Dec 2 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 157.40 @ 07:20 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: 156.38 Low Dec 02
- SUP 2: 156.05 Low Sep 17
- SUP 3: 155.15 Low Sep 16 and a key support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 8 / 14 2023
EURJPY remains soft and the cross traded lower Monday, marking an extension of the current bear cycle. A number of retracement points have been cleared and most recently, 157.87, 76.4% of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme and open 155.15, the Sep 16 low. Initial firm resistance is 161.70, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this EMA is required to signal a reversal.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 0.6595/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.6527/50 20-day EMA / High Nov 25
- PRICE: 0.6485 @ 07:57 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: 0.6434 Low Nov 26
- SUP 3: 0.6400 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023
The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish. A price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact and note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. The pair has recovered from its recent lows - a correction. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6527, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.4282 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4196 1.764 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4090/4178 High Dec 02 / High Nov 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4031 @ 08:01 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: 1.3976/28 20-day EMA / Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 2: 1.3871 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
- SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17
The trend condition in USDCAD remains bullish and the Nov 25 fresh cycle high reinforces this theme. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and marks an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4196 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low. For now, short-term weakness is considered corrective.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bullish Extension
- RES 4: 136.43 2.382 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 14 price swing
- RES 3: 136.20 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 135.92 High Oct 2
- RES 1: 135.46 High Dec 2
- PRICE: 135.26 @ 05:46 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: 134.34/133.30 Low Nov 29 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2 131.28 Low Nov 14
- SUP 3: 130.58 Low Nov 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 129.99 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
Bund futures traded higher Monday and the contract maintains a firmer tone as it once again extends the current bull cycle. Further gains are likely. Price has traded through 134.87, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. A clear break of this level strengthens a bullish theme and signals scope for a climb towards 136.20, the Oct 1 high. Initial firm support lies at 133.08, the 20-day EMA. First support lies at 133.88, the Nov 28 low.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 120.721 2.236 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 12 - 14 price swing
- RES 3: 120.650 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 120.490 High Oct 2
- RES 1: 120.200 High Dec 2
- PRICE: 120.120 @ 05:56 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: 119.550/119.105 Low Nov 29 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 118.540 Low Nov 22
- SUP 3: 118.150 Low Nov 14
- SUP 4: 117.910 Low Nov 7
Bobl futures maintain a firmer tone and Monday's gains mark an extension of the current cycle. The contract has breached 119.949, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - 31 bear leg. The clear break of this retracement strengthens the bullish theme and signals scope for a climb towards 120.650, the Oct 1 high and a key resistance for bulls. Initial firm support lies at 119.105, the 20-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Retracement Extends
- RES 4: 107.402 1.50 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 107.335 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 107.225 High Oct 3
- RES 1: 107.170 High Dec 2
- PRICE: 107.140 @ 06:14 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: 106.892/880 20-day EMA / Low Nov 28
- SUP 2: 106.740 Low Nov 22
- SUP 3: 106.645 Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: 106.485 Low Nov 5
Schatz futures traded higher Friday and again yesterday, marking a continuation of the bull cycle that started on Oct 31. 107.108, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Oct 1 - 31, has been breached. This strengthens a bullish theme and opens 107.335, the Oct 1 high. Key short-term support is at 106.880, the Nov 28 low. A break of this level would highlight a possible reversal. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 106.892.
GILT TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 96.67 2.500 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: 96.52 2.382 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing
- RES 2: 96.33 2.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: 96.31 High Dec 2
- PRICE: 96.12 @ Close Dec 2
- SUP 1: 95.78 Low Nov 29
- SUP 2: 95.17/94.66 Low Nov 28 / 25
- SUP 3: 93.96 Low Nov 22
- SUP 4: 93.40 Low Nov 18 and a key short-term support
A bullish corrective cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and recent gains reinforces current bullish conditions. Sights are on 96.33 and 96.52 next, Fibonacci projection points. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the initial key support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. A breach of this support would be a bearish development. First support lies at 95.78, the Nov 29 low.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Clears Key Resistance
- RES 4: 124.44 2.236 proj of the Nov 7 - 12 - 13 price swing
- RES 3: 124.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 122.88 2.000 proj of the Nov 7 - 12 - 13 price swing
- RES 1: 123.43 High Dec 2
- PRICE: 123.05 @ Close Dec 2
- SUP 1: 121.68/121.10 Low Nov 28 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 119.63 Low Nov 18
- SUP 3: 119.12 Low Nov 13
- SUP 4: 117.88 Low Nov 7 and a key support
BTP futures traded higher yesterday, once again marking an extension of the bull cycle that started Nov 7. The latest rally has resulted in a move through key resistance at 122.62, the Oct 1 high. A clear break of this level highlights an important bullish development and opens 123.88 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is overbought and a corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Support to watch is 121.10, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Trades Through The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 5015.00 High Oct 21
- RES 3: 5106.00 High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 4961.00 High Nov 6 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 4874.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 4864.00 @ 06:28 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: 4699.00 Low Nov 19 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 4707.00 Low Aug 9
- SUP 3: 4662.12 .76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4586.00 Low Aug 6
Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher yesterday and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The latest move higher undermines a recent bearish theme. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4860.94. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. Key support has been defined at 4699.00, the Nov 19 low. A break of this level would resume the recent bear cycle.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Northbound
- RES 4: 6145.26 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6103.88 1.500 proj of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 6070.16 1.382 proj of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 6068.50 High Dec 2
- PRICE: 6063.75 @ 07:21 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: 5970.46 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5883.29 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5814.75 Low Nov 6
- SUP 4: 5724.25 Low Nov 4 and a key support
On Friday, S&P E-Minis pierced key resistance and the bull trigger at 6053.25, the Nov 11 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on 6070.16, a Fibonacci projection point. Initial support to watch lies at 5970.46, the 20-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (G5) Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: $84.32 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $81.83 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $79.98/80.44 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $75.79 - High Nov 5
- PRICE: $72.13 @ 07:04 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: $69.95 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $69.52/67.89 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $66.70 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $64.34 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures remain in consolidation mode. The outlook is bearish and the Nov 25 move lower reinforces this theme. A continuation down would open $69.52 the Oct 1 low, and $67.89, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a clearer reversal higher would instead refocus attention on key resistance at $79.98, the Oct 7 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $75.79, the Nov 5 high.
WTI TECHS: (F5) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $80.25 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $78.03 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $74.83/77.04 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.41 - High Nov 7
- PRICE: $68.28 @ 07:17 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: $66.32 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $65.74/63.90 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $62.73 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and the Nov 25 move lower reinforces this theme. Attention is on $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $72.41, the Nov 7 high.
GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $2750.0 - High Nov 5
- RES 2: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 1: $2721.4 - High Nov 25
- PRICE: $2647.0 @ 07:24 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: $2605.3/2564.4 - Low Nov 26 / 18
- SUP 2: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 3: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
- SUP 4: $2472.0 - Low Sep 4
Gold is unchanged. The long-term trend condition remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance to watch is $2721.4, the Nov 25 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a bullish short-term development. Key support to monitor is $2536.9, the Nov 14 low.
SILVER TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $31.154/537 - 50-day EMA / High Nov 19
- PRICE: 30.919 @ 08:08 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: $29.642 - Low Nov 28
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
The bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play and the metal continues to trade closer to its latest lows. Price has recently breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and traded through a trendline drawn from the Aug 8 low. A resumption of the bear leg would open $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is $31.154, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a possible reversal.