MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/JPY Nearing Resistance

Price Signal Summary – EUR/JPY Nearing Resistance

• S&P E-Minis remain below Tuesday’s high but maintain a firmer tone. The contract yesterday briefly breached its 50-day EMA, at 4184.74 today. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain below Monday’s high but maintain a firmer short-term tone following recent gains and the break above the 50-day EMA. The latest move higher is still considered corrective.
• EURUSD continues to pull away from Monday’s high and remains below the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top intersects at 1.0786 today. EURGBP is holding on to this week’s gains. The recent break higher on May 24 reinstated a short-term bullish theme and has exposed 0.8619, May 12 high and the next hurdle for bulls. EURJPY maintains this week’s firmer tone and the cross traded higher again Wednesday. Resistance at 138.32, May 9 high, has been breached and attention is on the key resistance and bull trigger at 140.00, Apr 21 high.
• Gold remains below last week's high of $1869.7 (May 24). The yellow metal has recently traded above the 20-day EMA, currently at $1854.8. This suggests potential for a test of the 50-day EMA at $1877.0. WTI futures remain in an uptrend, despite the pullback from Tuesday’s high. The contract has this week breached resistance at $116.43, the Mar 7 high and the former contract high.
• Bund futures maintain this week’s softer tone - support at 151.89, May 18 low, has been breached. The primary trend direction is down. Fresh cycle lows in April and May, maintained the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Gilt futures traded sharply lower Tuesday to extend the pullback from its recent highs in May. The contract is approaching its key near-term support at 115.70, the May 9 low and bear trigger.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Channel Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.0954 High Apr 11
• RES 3: 1.0936 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0852 High Apr 22
• RES 1: 1.0786/87 Bear channel top from Feb 10 high / High May 30
• PRICE: 1.0657 @ 06:13 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 1.0627/0533 Low May 25 / Low May 20
• SUP 2: 1.0461 Low May 18 and19
• SUP 3: 1.0350 Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support

EURUSD continues to pull away from Monday’s high and remains below the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top intersects at 1.0786 today. This level marks a key short-term resistance where a break would strengthen bullish conditions and highlight a stronger short-term reversal. The primary trend remains down and an extension lower would reinforce the bearish theme and open 1.0533 initially, May 20 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Pulling Away From Last Week’s High

• RES 4: 1.2877 High APr 25
• RES 3: 1.2772 High Apr 26
• RES 2: 1.2710 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2667 High May 27 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.2476 @ 06:21 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 1.2438 Low May 20
• SUP 2: 1.2317 Low May 17
• SUP 3: 1.2277 76.4% retracement of the May 13 - 27 upleg
• SUP 4: 1.2156 Low May 13 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD maintains this week’s softer as the pair pulls away from last week’s high and works against the recent firmer tone. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 1.2156, May 13 low. Initial support lies at 1.2438, low May 24. Price last week traded above resistance at 1.2638, May 4 high. This reinforced a bullish set-up and signals scope for an extension towards the 50-day EMA that intersects at 1.2719 - an important resistance point.

EURGBP TECHS: Holds On To This Week’s Gains

• RES 4: 0.8658 High Sep 29 2021
• RES 3: 0.8643 High Sep 30 2021
• RES 2: 0.8619 High May 12 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8587 High May 24
• PRICE: 0.8541 @ 06:27 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 0.8493/8433 20-day EMA / Low May 23
• SUP 2: 0.8393/ 0.8391 Low May 17 / 61.8% of Apr 14 - May 12 upleg
• SUP 3: 0.8367 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 0.8337 76.4% retracement of the Apr 14 - May 12 upleg

EURGBP is holding on to this week’s gains. The recent break higher on May 24 reinstated a short-term bullish theme and has exposed 0.8619, May 12 high and the next hurdle for bulls. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend that started Mar 7. Initial support lies at 0.8493, the 20-day EMA ahead of a firmer short-term level at 0.8433, May 23 low. Key short-term support is unchanged at 0.8393, the May 17 low and a bear trigger.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Return

• RES 4: 132.39 High Apr 15 2002
• RES 3: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 131.35 High May 9 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 130.81 High May 11
• PRICE: 130.04 @ 06:33 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 126.36 Low May 24 and the 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 125.09 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 124.01 Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: 123.47 Low Apr 7

USDJPY has recovered well off recent lows and remains above support at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 126.36 today. This week’s move higher signals the end of a recent corrective pullback and also highlights the point that corrections in USDJPY are shallow. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards the bull trigger at 131.35, May 9 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 126.36.

EURJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Exposed

• RES 4: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 140.87 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 2: 140.00 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 138.98 High Jun 1
• PRICE: 138.63 @ 06:51 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 136.57 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 135.56/133.93 50-day EMA / Low May 19
• SUP 3: 133.08 100-dma
• SUP 4: 132.66 Low May 12 and the bear trigger

EURJPY maintains this week’s firmer tone and the cross traded higher again Wednesday. Resistance at 138.32, May 9 high, has been breached and attention is on the key resistance and bull trigger at 140.00, Apr 21 high. Key support has been defined at 132.66, the May 12 low. A break of this level would be a bearish development. Initial firm support to watch is at 135.56, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Testing The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.7343 61.8% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.7266 High May 4/5 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.7245 50.0% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.7230 High Jun 1
• PRICE: 0.7157 @ 06:57 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 0.7112/7036 20-day EMA / Low May 25
• SUP 2: 0.6950 Low May 18
• SUP 3: 0.6829 Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020

AUDUSD continues to trade closer to its recent highs. A bull theme remains in place and the pair is testing resistance around the 50-day EMA. A continuation higher would open 0.7266, the May 4/5 high and a bull trigger. Gains are still considered corrective however and the primary trend direction is down. The bear trigger is 0.6829, May 12 low. Initial firm support to watch is at 0.7036, May 25 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 1.3077 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2982 High May 16
• RES 2: 1.2896 High May 18 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2774 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2668 @ 07:25 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 1.2609 Low Jun 1
• SUP 2: 1.2562 61.8% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.2497 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2459 Low Apr 21

USDCAD maintains a softer tone following the reversal that started May 12. The cross has recently cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and has registered a print below 1.2660, the 61.8% retracement of the bull run from Apr 5 - May 12. A clear break of this level would open 1.2562, the 76.4% retracement. On the upside, a key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.2896, the May 18 high. Initial resistance is at 1.2774, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Approaching The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 157.87 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 157.29 High Apr 8
• RES 2: 156.00 High Apr 28
• RES 1: 153.21/155.33 20-day EMA / High May 12
• PRICE: 150.96 @ 05:12 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 150.49 Low May 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 150.15 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 150.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 149.49 Low Jul 13 2015 (cont)

Bund futures maintain this week’s softer tone - support at 151.89, May 18 low, has been breached. The primary trend direction is down. Fresh cycle lows in April and May, maintained the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition, reinforcing the current trend condition. A continuation lower would open 150.49, the bear trigger and May 9 low. Firm trend resistance is 155.33, the May 12 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Maintains A Softer Tone

• RES 4: 129.350 High Apr 4
• RES 3: 128.380 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 127.930 High May 26
• RES 1: 127.194 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 126.220 @ 05:19 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 126.010 Low May 6 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 125.450 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 125.260 Low Apr 24 20014 (cont)

Bobl futures traded lower again Wednesday and continued to extend the pullback from last week’s high of 127.930 (May 26). Trend conditions remain bearish and the move lower highlights a possible resumption of the broader downtrend. Further weakness would open 126.010, May 6 low and the bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. Initial resistance has been defined at 127.930.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Bearish Theme Intact

• RES 4: 110.855 High Apr 4
• RES 3: 110.690 High May 12 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: 110.500 High May 26 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 110.298 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 110.040 @ 05:20 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 109.980 Low May 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 109.777 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 109.555 Low Oct 31 2011 (cont)
• SUP 4: 109.340 Low Oct 28 011 (cont)

Schatz futures on Tuesday, traded through initial support at 110.110, May 18 low. A continuation lower has refocused attention on the bear trigger at 109.980, May 6 low, where a break would resume the primary downtrend. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode highlighting the broader market sentiment. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 110.500, the May 26 high.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Approaching Its Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 119.25 High May 19
• RES 2: 118.63 High May 24 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 117.49/118.51 High May 31 / High May 26
• PRICE: 115.97 @ Close May 31
• SUP 1: 115.76 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 115.70 Low May 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 115.54 1.50 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 115.31 1.618 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing

Gilt futures traded sharply lower Tuesday to extend the pullback from its recent highs in May. The contract is approaching its key near-term support at 115.70, the May 9 low and bear trigger. The primary trend direction remains down and a break of 115.70 would confirm a resumption of the bear leg. This would open 115.50 initially, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at yesterday’s high of 117.49.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 135.23 High Apr 14
• RES 3: 133.53 High Apr 28
• RES 2: 131.94 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 130.09/131.24 High May 26 / High May 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 126.62 @ Close Jun 1
• SUP 1: 125.54 Low May 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 125.02 1.236 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 124.02 Low Mar 18 2020 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 123.41 1.382 proj of the of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing

The primary trend condition in BTP futures remains bearish. The contract traded lower Wednesday and this week has breached support at 127.24, May 11 low. The move lower marks an extension of the pullback from the May 12 high of 131.24. A continuation lower would expose the key support and bear trigger at 126.54, May 9 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at 130.09, May 26 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Short-Term Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 3888.00 High Apr 5
• RES 2: 3883.00 High Apr 21
• RES 1: 3850.00 High May 30
• PRICE: 3762.00 @ 05:48 BST June 2
• SUP 1: 3712.50 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3576.00/3466.00 Low May 19 / Low May 10 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3458.90 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 4: 3400.00 Round number support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain below Monday’s high but maintain a firmer short-term tone following recent gains and the break above the 50-day EMA. The latest move higher is still considered corrective. However, attention is on resistance at 3883.00, Apr 21 high and a key resistance at 3944.00, Mar 29 high. A break of the latter would strengthen current bullish conditions. On the downside, firm short-term support has been defined at 3576.00, May 19 low.

E-MINI S&P (M2): 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4509.00 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 4393.25 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 4303.50 High Apr 26/28 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4184.74/4202.25 50-day EMA / High May 31
• PRICE: 4101.50 @ 06:54 BST June 2
• SUP 1: 3960.50/3807.50 Low May 26 / Low May 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3801.97 38.2% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 bull leg (cont)
• SUP 3: 3787.74 2.618 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 3747.52 2.764 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing

S&P E-Minis remain below Tuesday’s high but maintain a firmer tone. The contract yesterday briefly breached its 50-day EMA, at 4184.74 today. A clear break of this average would strengthen current bullish conditions and signal potential for a climb towards a key resistance at 4303.50, the Apr 26/28 high. Recent gains are still considered corrective and the primary trend is down. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 3807.50.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q2) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $124.42 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $123.49 - 1.50 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: $121.94 - 1.382 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $120.80 - High May 31
• PRICE: $114.70 @ 07:01 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: $112.80 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $111.25 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $106.60 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $103.84 - Low May 19 and a key support

Brent futures remain below Tuesday’s high. Trend conditions are bullish and dips are considered corrective. Recent gains signals scope for an extension towards the contract high of 124.42 the Mar 7 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, the 20-day EMA, at $111.25, is seen as initial support. A break would suggest scope for a deeper corrective pullback.

WTI TECHS: (N2) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $125.73 - 1.382 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 3: $123.35 - 1.236 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 2: $120.00 - Psychological Resistance
• RES 1: $119.98 - High May 31
• PRICE: $113.35 @ 07:10 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: $109.47 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $103.24 - Low May 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: $100.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $96.93 - Low May 11

WTI futures remain in an uptrend, despite the pullback from Tuesday’s high. The contract has this week breached resistance at $116.43, the Mar 7 high and the former contract high. This confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and paves the way for a test of the $120.00 handle and potentially beyond. Initial firm support is seen at $109.47, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would suggest scope for a deeper correction.

GOLD TECHS: Still Trading Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: $1919.9 - High Apr 29 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 2: $1877.0 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1869.7 - High May 24
• PRICE: $1848.9 @ 07:16 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: $1807.5/1787.0 - Low May 18 / Low May 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021
• SUP 4: $1749.3 - 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Gold remains below last week's high of $1869.7 (May 24). The yellow metal has recently traded above the 20-day EMA, currently at $1854.8 This suggests potential for a test of the 50-day EMA at $1877.0. Gains are still considered corrective though and the primary trend direction is down. A stronger resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on the May 16 $1787.0 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
• RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• RES 2: $22.898 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $22.083/446 - 20-day EMA / High May 27
• PRICE: $21.956 @ 07:56 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: $21.283/20.464 - Low May 19 / Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Silver remains below resistance at $22.446, May 27 high. A break above this level is required to suggest scope for an extension higher that would open the 50-day EMA at $22.898. For bears, continued weakness would signal potential for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $20.464, the May 13 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.