MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR Uptrend Persists

Price Signal Summary - EUR Uptrend Persists

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis continue to trade constructively, topping near-term resistance at $4185.00, May 21 high. This opens 4238.25, May 10 high. Key trend support lies at 4029.25, the May 13 low.
• In the FX space, EURUSD strength persists to keep the uptrend in tact. The show above 1.2245 opens gains toward 1.2285, Jan 8 high. GBPUSD remains bullish and attention is on 1.4237, Feb 24 high and this year's high. USDJPY support remains 108.34, May 7 low. A bullish theme dominates while this support holds and attention is on 109.79, May 13 high. A break of 108.34 however would highlight a trendline break drawn off the Jan 6 low and risk a deeper pullback.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains bullish. The focus is on $1892.7, 76.4% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off. Oil bounces off recent lows. Brent (N1) is off recent lows however, the contract remains in a corrective bearish cycle. Key short-term support lies at $63.93, Apr 26 low. WTI (N1) key support lies at $60.55, Apr 22 low.
• In the FI space, Bunds (M1) traded lower last week and cleared support at 168.59, May 13 low. This confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend and opens 168.09, 0.764 projection of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing. The bear trigger is 168.29, May 19 low. Near-term risk in Gilts (M1) is still skewed to the downside despite recent strength. The key support and bear trigger is 126.79, Mar 18 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Extension

• RES 4: 1.2414 High Apr 17, 2018
• RES 3: 1.2353 High Apr 20, 2018
• RES 2: 1.2285 High Jan 8
• RES 1: 1.2245 High May 19
• PRICE: 1.2250 @ 09:29 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 1.2160/26 Low May 19 / Low May 17
• SUP 2: 1.2052 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.2057 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.1986 Low May 5 and key short-term support

EURUSD has started the week on a firmer note. The pair has also traded higher this morning and breached resistance at 1.2245, May 19 high. This strengthens the bullish outlook and opens 1.2285, Jan 8 high. Further out, the 2021 high of 1.2349, Jan 6 high beckons. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 1.2052, May 13 low while initial support is at 1.2160, the May 19 low. A break of 1.2052 would signal a top.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Price Structure

• RES 4: 1.4411 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4315 High Apr 18, 2018
• RES 2: 1.4237 High Feb 24 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.4234 High May 21
• PRICE: 1.4179 @ 06:12 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 1.4100 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 1.4006/3972 Low May 13 / Low May 10
• SUP 3: 1.3947 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3801 Low May 3 and a key support

The GBPUSD is trading closer to recent highs and remains bullish. Price action recently cleared a number of resistance levels, reinforcing a positive theme and sights are on 1.4237, Feb 24 high. A break would reinforce a bullish case and confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend that started March 2020. On the downside, initial firm support is unchanged at 1.4006, May 13 low where a break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback.

EURGBP TECHS: Trading In A Tight Range

• RES 4: 0.8780/91 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Feb 12
• RES 3: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 2: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull Trigger
• RES 1: 0.8650 High May 24
• PRICE: 0.8624 @ 06:22 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 0.8561 Low May 12
• SUP 2: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8441 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020

EURGBP is trading in a tight range. A bearish theme remains intact though following recent weakness and the low print on May 12 of 0.8561. The move lower saw the cross move out of its recent range suggesting scope for a deeper pullback, potentially towards the key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. On the upside, the key resistance and bull trigger is unchanged at 0.8721, Apr 26 high. Initial resistance is at 0.8650, Monday's high.

USDJPY TECHS: Holding Above Support

• RES 4: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 110.55 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 109.96 High Apr 9
• RES 1: 109.79 High May 13
• PRICE: 108.74 @ 06:29 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 108.34 Low May 7 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.97 Low Mar 4
• SUP 4: 106.78 50.0% retracement of the Jan - Mar rally

USDJPY is consolidating. The pair maintains a bullish outlook despite struggling to hold onto recent gains. A firm support has been defined at 108.34, May 7 low. Attention is on 109.96, Apr 9 high with potential for a climb above 110.00. Note that the recovery May 12 means trendline support drawn off the Jan 6 low remains intact. The trendline however remains under pressure. A break of 108.34 would signal a reversal.

EURJPY TECHS: Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 134.80 High Feb 8, 2018
• RES 3: 134.24 Bull channel top drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low
• RES 2: 134.19 1.618 proj of Jun-Sep-Oct 2020 swing
• RES 1: 133.44 High May 19
• PRICE: 132.96 @ 06:36 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 132.37 High Apr 29 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 131.69 Low May 12
• SUP 3: 130.99 Low May 5 and a key support
• SUP 4: 130.73 Bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low

The EURJPY outlook remains bullish and sights are set on recent highs. Last week's extension reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for further gains within the rising channel drawn off the Oct 30 2020 low. The top of the channel intersects at 134.24. Moving average studies are still pointing north, reinforcing current conditions. Initial firm support lies at 131.69, May 12 low. A firmer trend support is found at 130.99, May 5 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Consolidating But Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7916 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.7891/95 High May 10 / 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.7813/46 High May 18 / High May 12
• PRICE: 0.7756 @ 06:41 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 0.7688 Low May 13
• SUP 2: 0.7675 Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 0.7586 Low Apr 13

AUDUSD remains in a range. A bearish theme dominates though following the recent move lower to 0.7688 on May 13. A firm support zone has been defined at 0.7688-75, the latter is the May 4 low. Clearance of this support would strengthen a bearish case and signal scope for a deeper pullback towards 0.7586, the Apr 13 low. Initial firm resistance is at 0.7813, May 18 high ahead of the key resistance at 0.7891, May 10 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Eyeing 1.2000

• RES 4: 1.2491 High Apr 26
• RES 3: 1.2419 High Apr 27
• RES 2: 1.2351 High May 4 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.2203/2288 High May 13 / High May 6
• PRICE: 1.2044 @ 06:44 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 1.2013 Low May 18
• SUP 2: 1.2000 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 1.1920 Low May 2015
• SUP 4: 1.1852 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD remains bearish. The recent key technical development has been the test below major support at 1.2062, Sep 2017 low. This represents an important pivot chart point that either marks the base of a broad range or the midpoint of a double top reversal pattern. A clear break lower would reinforce the current downtrend and open the psychological 1.2000 handle and below. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2203, May 13 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 171.27 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 170.98 High May 7 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 170.25 High May 11
• RES 1: 169.62 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 169.34 @ 05:03 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 168.29 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 168.09 0.764 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 167.52 Low Mar 19, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 167.32 1.0% 10-dma envelope

Bund futures maintain a bearish tone following the recent breach of 168.59, May 13 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and reinforces current bearish conditions. The move lower opens 168.09, a Fibonacci projection and 167.32, the lower band of a volatility based indicator. On the upside, initial resistance is at 169.62, the 20-day EMA. A break of the average would ease bearish pressure. Gains are considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 135.050 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 135.040 High May 6 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 134.870 High May 10
• RES 1: 134.597 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 134.530 @ 05:17 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 134.180 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 134.140 Low Feb 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 134.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 133.340 Low Mar 19, 2020 (cont)

Bobl futures touched a new cycle low of 134.180 on May 19. This reinforced the bearish cycle that started Mar 25 and confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend. It also opens the end-Feb lows next. Support is layered between 134.00-134.14. Clearance of this zone would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Key short-term resistance is at 134.597, the 20-day EMA. Current gains are considered corrective.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Remains Below The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 112.150 High Apr 8
• RES 3: 112.110/120 High May 4, 5, and 6 / High Apr 22
• RES 2: 112.080 High May 11
• RES 1: 112.052 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 112.030 @ 05:13 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 112.000 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 111.993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 3: 111.940 Low Feb 26 ad key support
• SUP 4: 111.860 Low Apr 15, 2019 (cont)

Schatz futures maintain a bearish tone following the recent sell-off from May 5 marking a resumption of the bearish cycle that started Mar 25. Recent weakness resulted in a break of 112.060, a level that provided support in March and April. This strengthens a bearish case and opens 111.940, Feb 26 low. A breach of 112.110 is required to signal a reversal. Gains are considered corrective and price remains below the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Corrective Gains

• RES 4: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 3: 129.09/27 High Apr 23 and the reversal trigger / High Mar 2
• RES 2: 128.80 High May 7 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 128.34 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 128.08 @ Close May 24
• SUP 1: 126.86 Low May 13
• SUP 2: 127.12/126.79 Low May 19 / Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.32 1.0% 10-dma Envelope

Gilt futures outlook remains bearish despite recent gains. The pullback from 128.80, May 7 high reinforced bearish conditions. The move lower resulted in a break of support between 127.40-32, Apr 29 and Apr 1 lows respectively. This exposes the major support at 126.79, Mar 18 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of 126.79 would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Initial firm resistance is 128.80. The 50-day EMA intersects at 128.34.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 147.79 High May 4 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 147.33 High May 7
• RES 2: 146.84 Low Feb 26 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: 146.37 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 146.12 @ Close May 24
• SUP 1: 144.48 Low May 17
• SUP 2: 144.16 1.236 proj of the Feb 12 - 26 - Mar 11 price swing
• SUP 3: 144.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 143.61 Low Jul 13, 2020 (cont)

BTP futures remain in a clear downtrend following last week's extension lower that resulted in a fresh 2021 low of 144.48 on Mar 19. Recent gains are considered corrective. The breach of 146.84, Feb 26 low confirms a resumption of the bear cycle from Feb 12. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too, reinforcing current conditions. Attention is on 144.16, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is seen at 146.84.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (M1) Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 4175.00 Low Nov 26, 2007 (cont)
• RES 3: 4140.00 High Jan 18, 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4099.00 1.00 proj of of the Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 1: 4051.00 High May 24 and intraday high
• PRICE: 4048.00 @ 05:42 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 3897.32/3882.00 50-day EMA / Low May 19
• SUP 2: 3844.00 Low May 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3821.00 High Mar 18 and recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 3727.00 Low Mar 25

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are bullish and the contract traded higher yesterday, breaching resistance at 4036.00, May 10 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 4099.00, a Fibonacci projection. The climb also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing the current trend condition. On the downside, firm support lies at 3882.00, May 19 low.

E-MINI S&P (M1): Clears Last Week's High

• RES 4: 4261.44 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 4239.26 1.764 proj of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing
• RES 2: 4238.25 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4212.75 High May 25
• PRICE: 4204.50 @ 09:17 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 4055.60 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 4029.25 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 4021.00 Low Apr 5
• SUP 4: 3959.51 100-dma

S&P E-minis started the week on a firm note trading higher yesterday and breaching initial resistance at 4185.00, May 21 high. This reinforces the bullish significance of the recent recovery from support defined by the 50-day EMA that has been tested twice this month. The break higher refocuses attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4238.25, May 10 high. On the downside, initial firm support is at 4055.50, May 19 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N1) Bullish Focus

• RES 4: $71.95 - High Sep 16, 2019 (cont)
• RES 3: $71.75 - High Jan 8 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: $70.24 - High May 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $68.90 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $68.59 @ 06:49 BST May 25
• SUP 1: $64.57 - Low May 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: $63.93 - Low Apr 26
• SUP 3: $62.00 - Low Apr 12
• SUP 4: $60.93 - Low Apr 5

Brent crude yesterday extended the recovery from Friday's low of $64.57. The underlying uptrend remains intact and attention is on $70.24, May 18 high and the bull trigger. Price has recently traded below the 50-day EMA however levels around the average continue to provide support. On the downside, weakness through last week's $64.57 low is required to signal a short-term top and the start of a corrective pullback.

WTI TECHS: (N1) Defines Key Support

• RES 4: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $67.95 - High Oct 29, 2018
• RES 2: $67.25 - 2.00 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 1: $67.02 - High May 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $66.00 @ 06:57 BST May 25
• SUP 1: $61.56 - Low May 21
• SUP 2: $60.55 - Low Apr 22 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $58.70 - Low Apr 12
• SUP 4: $57.63 - Low Apr 5

WTI crude started the week on a firm note, extending the recovery from Friday's low of $61.56. This low marks a key short-term support where a break is required to suggest a short-term top and the start of a deeper corrective pullback. Attention is on $67.02, May 18 high and the bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the bull trend. Moving average studies remain in bull mode, reinforcing trend conditions.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: $1927.7 - High Jan 7
• RES 3: $1917.6 - High Jan 8
• RES 2: $1892.7 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off
• RES 1: $1890.1 - High May 19
• PRICE: $1876.3 @ 07:13 BST May 25
• SUP 1: $1852.3/34.2 - Low May 19 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1808.9 - Low May 13
• SUP 3: $1802.0 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1764.3 - Low Apr 30

Gold traded higher last week, confirming a resumption of the underlying uptrend as the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows extends. The outlook remains bullish. The yellow metal has cleared $1851.5, a Fibonacci retracement and 1875.7, Jan 29 high. Attention is on $1829.7, the 76.4% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off. On the downside, key S/T support has been defined at $1808.9, May 13 low. Initial support is $1852.3.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $30.100 - High Feb 1 and key resistance
• RES 3: $30.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $29.053 - High Feb 2
• RES 1: $28.753 - High May 18
• PRICE: $27.581 @ 07:19 BST May 25
• SUP 1: $27.202 - Low May 21
• SUP 2: $26.721 - Low Mar 13 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $26.591 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $25.718 - Low Apr 29

Silver remains bullish despite the recent pullback. Price action last week probed $28.609, 76.4% of the sell-off between Feb 1 - Mar 31. The May 18 high of $28.753 marks a short-term bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for strength towards $29.00 and above. Key short-term support has been defined at $26.721, Mar 13 low. Clearance of this level is required to threaten the trend.