MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/USD Approaching Base of Bull Channel

Price Signal Summary – EUR/USD Approaching Base of Bull Channel

• A sharp sell-off yesterday in the E-mini S&P contract reinforces a bearish theme and signals the end of the recent corrective bounce between Aug 18 - 24. The focus turns to support at 4350.00, the Aug 18 low and bear trigger. A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and yesterday’s sharp sell-off reinforces this theme. The move lower signals the end of the recent corrective bounce between Aug 18 - 24. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4187.00.
• The trend needle in EURUSD continues to point south and this week’s move lower reinforces the current bearish condition. The pair has traded to fresh cycle low this week and breached support at 1.0834, the Aug 22 low. EURGBP traded lower Wednesday, breaching support at 0.8504, the Jull 11 low, before rebounding. The cross traded higher again Thursday and attention turns to resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8595. Clearance of this level would strengthen a short-term bullish condition. The current EURJPY uptrend remains intact and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Key resistance at 158.05, the ul 21 high, has been cleared, confirming a resumption of the M/T uptrend. Sights are on 159.92, a Fibonacci projection ahead of the 160.00 psychological handle.
• The outlook in Gold remains bearish, however, a short-term correction has resulted in a recovery this week. The yellow metal has breached resistance at the 20-day EMA and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at $1931.4. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact, however, a corrective cycle is in play for now. Wednesday’s move lower resulted in a print below support at $78.33, the Aug 3 low.
• A strong bounce in Bund futures Wednesday resulted in a break of resistance at the 20- and 50-day EMA values. The break higher threatens the recent bearish theme and signals scope for a stronger recovery, potentially towards 133.45. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact, however, a strong rally this week suggests the contract remains in a short-term corrective cycle. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA.

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching The Channel Base

• RES 4: 1.1150 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1005 High AUg 11
• RES 1: 1.0921 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0780 @ 05:55 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 1.0769 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 15 low
• SUP 2: 1.0733 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 1.0668 Low Jun 7
• SUP 4: 1.0635 Low May 31 and a key support

The trend needle in EURUSD continues to point south and this week’s move lower reinforces the current bearish condition. The pair has traded to fresh cycle low this week and breached support at 1.0834, the Aug 22 low. Price continues to weaken inside a bull channel drawn from the Mar 15 low and is approaching the base at 1.0769. This level is seen as a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.0921, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2887 High Jul 28
• RES 2: 1.2819 High Aug 10 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 1.2738 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2563 @ 06:08 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 1.2521 1.382 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.2480 1.50 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2433 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 1.2369 Low Jun 5

GBPUSD is trading lower and has confirmed a clear break of support at 1.2621, the Aug 14 low. The pair has also breached 1.2591, the Jun 29 low. The break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend and marks the end of the recent consolidative phase. The focus is on a move towards 1.2521 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 1.2738, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Approaching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.8701 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8669 High Aug 11
• RES 2: 0.8649 100-dma
• RES 1: 0.8595 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8580 @ 06:37 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 0.8536/8493 Low Aug 24 / 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8474 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8454 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 2022 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2022

EURGBP traded lower Wednesday, breaching support at 0.8504, the Jull 11 low, before rebounding. The cross traded higher again Thursday and attention turns to resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8595. Clearance of this level would strengthen a short-term bullish condition and suggest scope for a stronger correction. Moving average studies continue to highlight a downtrend, the bear trigger is at 0.8493, the Aug 23 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 148.40 High Nov 4 2022
• RES 3: 147.49 2.00 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 146.93 High Nov 8 2022
• RES 1: 146.56 High Aug 17 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 146.10 @ 06:53 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 144.39 20 EMA
• SUP 2: 143.30 Low Aug 10
• SUP 3: 142.58 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 141.52 Low Aug 7

The uptrend in USDJPY remains intact and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. Recent gains resulted in a break of 145.07, the Jun 30 high. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition, highlighting an uptrend. The focus is on 147.49, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at 144.39, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Primary Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 159.49 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 157.70 @ 07:20 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 156.87 Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 156.01 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 154.50 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 22 rally
• SUP 4: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and key support

The current EURJPY uptrend remains intact and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Key resistance at 158.05, the ul 21 high, has been cleared, confirming a resumption of the M/T uptrend. Sights are on 159.92, a Fibonacci projection ahead of the 160.00 psychological handle. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition, reflecting a rising trend. On the downside, the next support to watch is 156.01, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 0.6723 High Aug 1
• RES 3: 0.6597 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6509 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6488 High Aug 24
• PRICE: 0.6418 @ 08:05 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 0.6365 Low Aug 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6285 Low Nov 4 2022
• SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

The AUDUSD trend remains bearish and the latest recovery appears to be a correction - yesterday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. Firm resistance is at the 20-day EMA at 0.6509. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6597. The pair has recently breached support at 0.6458, May 31 low and a bear trigger. This strengthens the downtrend and opens 0.6285 next, the Nov 4 2022 low. On the upside, clearance of the 20-day EMA would suggest scope for a stronger correction.

USDCAD TECHS: Trading AT This Week’s Highs

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3732 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high
• RES 2: 1.3655 High May 26 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3604 High Aug 23
• PRICE: 1.3598 @ 08:00 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 1.3496 Low Aug 21
• SUP 2: 1.3451 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3381 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3266 Low Aug 2

USDCAD is trading at this week’s highs. The fresh cycle high on Wednesday reinforces the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A clear break of 1.3600 would expose 1.3655, May 26 high. Note that a trendline resistance, drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high, is at 1.3732 and represents an objective further out. Support to watch is 1.3451, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Watching Resistance At 133.45

• RES 4: 134.88 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 134.01 High Jul 24
• RES 2: 133.92 High Jul 27
• RES 1: 133.45 High Aug 8 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 132.35 @ 05:25 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 131.91/20 20-day EMA / Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 130.14 Low Aug 15
• SUP 3: 130.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 129.69 1.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

A strong bounce in Bund futures Wednesday resulted in a break of resistance at the 20- and 50-day EMA values. The break higher threatens the recent bearish theme and signals scope for a stronger recovery, potentially towards 133.45, the Aug 8 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support lies at 131.20, the Aug 23 low. A reversal lower and a break of this level would be seen as a bearish development.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Strong Rally Exposes Resistance

• RES 4: 116.860 High Jun 13
• RES 3: 116.600 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 116.340 High Aug 8
• RES 1: 116.260 High Aug 24
• PRICE: 115.840 @ 05:23 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 115.535/210 20-day EMA / Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 114.960 Low Aug 21
• SUP 3: 114.710 Low Aug 15
• SUP 4: 114.550 Low Jul 6 and a key support

Bobl futures rallied sharply higher this week. The climb resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMA values. This highlights a stronger short-term reversal and a continuation higher would signal scope for gains towards 116.340, the Aug 8 high. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend and suggest that current gains are a correction. A break below Wednesday’s low of 115.210, would be a bearish development.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Holding On To The Bulk Of This Week’s Gains

• RES 4: 105.325 High Jun 14
• RES 3: 105.295 High Aug 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 105.255 High Aug 9
• RES 1: 105.230 High Aug 24
• PRICE: 105.125 @ 05:41 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 104.905/760 Low Aug 23 / 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 104.741 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - Aug 8 bull leg
• SUP 3: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures rallied Wednesday resulting in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break higher signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery and an extension would expose the next key resistance at 105.295, the Aug 8 high. Moving average studies continue to highlight a downtrend and this suggests current gains are part of a correction. Support to watch lies at 104.905, Wednesday’s low. A break would be bearish.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 96.81 High Juul 27
• RES 3: 96.27 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Aug 17 bear leg
• RES 2: 95.82 High Aug 10 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 94.95 High Aug 24
• PRICE: 94.60 @ Close Aug 24
• SUP 1: 93.73 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 92.38/91.19 Low Aug 23 / Low Aug 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 90.70 1.236 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing
• SUP 4: 90.38 Low Oct 12 2022 (cont) and a major support

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact, however, a strong rally this week suggests the contract remains in a short-term corrective cycle. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA. Yesterday’s gain resulted in a test of the 50-day EMA, at 94.85. A break would strengthen bullish conditions. MA studies continue to highlight a downtrend. The bear trigger has been defined at 91.19, the Aug 17 low. Initial support to watch lies at 92.38, the Aug 23 low.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Tests Resistance

• RES 4: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 117.48/60 High Jul 19 / Jun 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 116.86 High Jul 24
• RES 1: 116.12 High Aug 24
• PRICE: 115.21 @ Close Aug 24
• SUP 1: 114.11/112.95 Low Aug 23 / Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 3: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support
• SUP 4: 111.05 1.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - Jul 19 price swing

A strong rally in BTP futures this week resulted in a break above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This highlights a stronger short-term bull cycle. Yesterday’s initial gains resulted in a print above 116.02, the Aug 9 high. A clear break of this level would signal scope for an extension higher. Wednesday’s low marks the first key short-term support. A reversal and a break of this level would be a bearish development and expose 112.95, the Jul 11 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4539.20 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jul 3 - 7 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 4515.00 High Nov / Dec 2007 (cont)
• RES 2: 4513.00 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4335.00/4420.00 50-day EMA / High Aug 10
• PRICE: 4233.00 @ 05:59 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 4187.00 Low Aug 18 and key support
• SUP 2: 4177.40 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg
• SUP 3: 4122.00 Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: 4098.10 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg

A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and yesterday’s sharp sell-off reinforces this theme. The move lower signals the end of the recent corrective bounce between Aug 18 - 24. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4187.00, the Aug 8 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Resistance to watch is 4335.00, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Resistance Is At The Former Bull Channel Base

• RES 4: 4593.50/4634.50 High Aug 2 / Jul 27 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4560.75 High Aug 4
• RES 2: 4517.75 High Aug 15
• RES 1: 4499.37 Former bull channel base drawn from Mar 13
• PRICE: 4390.25 @ 06:53 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 4350.00 Low Aug 18 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4344.28 38.2% retracement of the Mar 13 - Jul 27 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4305.75 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 4254.62 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - Jul 27 bull cycle

A sharp sell-off yesterday in the E-mini S&P contract reinforces a bearish theme and signals the end of the recent corrective bounce between Aug 18 - 24. The focus turns to support at 4350.00, the Aug 18 low and bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the current bear cycle. On the upside, resistance to watch is 4499.37, the base of a bull channel that was breached last week. The channel is drawn from the Mar 13 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V3) Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: $92.10 - 1.50 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 18 price swing
• RES 3: $90.63 - High Nov 11 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $85.86/88.10 - High Aug 21 / 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $83.89 @ 06:57 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: $81.75 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $78.10 - Low Jul 18 and key support
• SUP 3: $74.78 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $72.04 - Low Jun 28

Brent futures traded lower Wednesday and pierced support at $82.36, the Aug 3 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a stronger short-term reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note too that the 50-day EMA lies at $81.75 and represents an important support. For bulls, resistance to watch is $85.86, the Aug 21 high. A break would signal a resumption of bullish activity.

WTI TECHS: (V3) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $86.62 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 2: $85.24 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 1: $81.75/84.16 - High Aug 21 / 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $79.57 @ 07:04 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: $77.48 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $73.60 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: $6972 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $66.83 - Low Jun 12 and key support

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact, however, a corrective cycle is in play for now. Wednesday’s move lower resulted in a print below support at $78.33, the Aug 3 low. A clear break of this support would highlight a stronger bear cycle and pave the way for a deeper retracement. Note that a key support lies at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $77.48. Initial resistance to watch is $81.75, a break would be a bullish development.

GOLD TECHS: Has Breached The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $1972.4 - High Jul 31
• RES 2: $1946.8 - High Aug 4
• RES 1: $1931.4 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1913.8 @ 07:11 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: $1897.7/1884.9 - Low Aug 23 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 3: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull leg
• SUP 4: $1827.8 - Low Mar 10

The outlook in Gold remains bearish, however, a short-term correction has resulted in a recovery this week. The yellow metal has breached resistance at the 20-day EMA and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at $1931.4. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bull cycle. For bears, moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $1884.9, the Aug 21 low.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $26.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $24.838 - High Jul 3
• RES 1: $24.550 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 14 downleg
• PRICE: $24.024 @ 07:25 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: $23.413 - Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: $22.667/227 - Low Aug 21 / 15
• SUP 3: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 bull leg

This week’s move higher in Silver suggests potential for a stronger short-term rally. The metal has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA - at $23.562. The break signals scope for a climb towards $24.550, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would open $25.267, the Jul 20 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial support to watch is Wednesday’s low at $23.413. A break would signal a potential reversal.