MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/USD Bearish Cycle Extends

Price Signal Summary – EUR/USD Bearish Cycle Extends

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis maintain a bullish tone however the recent pullback suggests the contract has entered and remains in a corrective cycle. Support at 4155.50, the Jun 3 low has been probed as well as the 50-day EMA at 4142.51. This weakens the short-term outlook.
• In FX, EURUSD remains under pressure as last week's bear cycle extends. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA and 1.2104, Jun 4 low highlights a bearish theme and the recent sell-off reinforces current bearish sentiment. The focus is on 1.1837, a Fibonacci retracement where a break would open 1.1704, the Mar 31 low. GBPUSD weakness has resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA. The move through the average strengthens a short-term bearish outlook and opens 1.3801, May 3 low. USDJPY traded higher Wednesday extending the recovery from 109.19, Jun 7 low. The break of 110.33, Jun 4 high exposes 110.97, this year's high on Mar 31. Support to watch is at 109.81, Jun 16 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold has traded sharply lower this week and remains vulnerable. The focus is on $1756.2, low Apr 29. Oil has pulled back from recent highs and a corrective cycle is in play. Support in Brent (Q1) is seen at $71.36, the 20 day EMA. WTI (N1) support to watch lies at $69.00, the 20-day EMA.
• Within FI, Bund futures key directional triggers have been defined at; 171.80, Jun 17 low and 173.16, the Jun 11 high. The pullback in Gilt futures key support lies at 126.70, Jun 3 and a key near-term support.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.2218 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 1.2147 High Jun 15
• RES 2: 1.2094 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1925/2006 High Jun 18 / High Jun 17
• PRICE: 1.1864 @ 06:04 BST Jun 19
• SUP 1: 1.1848 Low Jun 18 and intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.1837 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally
• SUP 3: 1.1795 Low Apr 6
• SUP 4: 1.1738 Low Apr 5

EURUSD remains vulnerable following last week's bearish pressure. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA and 1.2104, Jun 4 low highlights a bearish theme and has also confirmed a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 1.1837, a Fibonacci retracement where a break would open 1.1704, the Mar 31 low and a key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 1.2006, the Jun 17 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Under Pressure

• RES 4: 1.4203/48 High Jun 3 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.4133 High Jun 16
• RES 2: 1.4026 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3977 High Jun 18
• PRICE: 1.3799 @ 06:13 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 1.3787 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3669 Low Apr 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

GBPUSD remains under pressure following sharp losses last week and the break of short-term support - price has cleared the 50-day EMA and 1.4006, May 13 low. Cable has also traded through the 100-DMA, reinforcing current bearish conditions. Scope is seen for an extension lower towards 1.3717, Apr 14 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.4026, the 50-day EMA. Bearish!

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 3: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8646/72 High Jun 1 / High May 25
• RES 1: 0.8629 High Jun 15
• PRICE: 0.8595 @ 06:18 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 0.8542 Low Jun 17
• SUP 2: 0.8531 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8420 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURGBP, last week traded through support at 0.8561, low May 12. The move lower signals the end of the recent consolidation and strengthens a bearish case. The focus is on a weakness despite Friday's rally and attention is on 0.8531, 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally. A break of this level would expose key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.8629, Jun 15 high where a break would ease the bearish threat.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 111.71 High Mar 24 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
• RES 2: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 110.96 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 109.83 @ 06:25 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 109.72 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 109.24/19 50-day EMA / Low Jun 7
• SUP 3: 108.56/34 Low May 25 / Low May 7 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger

USDJPY traded higher last week but found resistance at 110.82, Jun 17 high and remains below this resistance. The recent break of 110.33, Jun 4 high is a bullish development and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend since Apr 23. Attention is on 110.96, 1.0% 10-dma envelope and key resistance at 110.97, the year high print on Mar 31. A break would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. Key trend support lies at 109.19, Jun 7 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Vulnerable Following Bull Channel Breakout

• RES 4: 133.76/134.13 High Jun 10 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 132.88 High Jun 17
• RES 2: 132.07 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 131.43 High Jun 18
• PRICE: 130.32 @ 06:48 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 130.04 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 129.59 Low Apr 23
• SUP 3: 128.83 Low Mar 29
• SUP 4: Low Mar 24 and key support

EURJPY remains weak. This follows sharp losses last week and scope is seen for a deeper pullback. Last week's move lower resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and importantly a breach of the bull channel support at 131.78. The channel is drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. This highlights a reversal in sentiment and note, price is also through the 100-dma. Attention is on 130.00 and 129.59, Apr 23 low. Initial resistance is seen at 131.43, Jun 18 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh 2021 Lows

• RES 4: 0.7776 High Jun 11
• RES 3: 0.7710 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.7645 High Jun 17
• RES 1: 0.7561 High Jun 18
• PRICE: 0.7496 @ 06:51 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 0.7476 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.7462 Low Dec 21, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.7372 1.236 proj of Feb 25 - Mar 9 - 18 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.7339 Low Nov 30, 2020

AUDUSD remains under pressure registering fresh lows again Friday. The pair has traded below key support at 0.7532 Apr 1 low and price has also breached the 200-dma. The move lower confirms a resumption of the reversal that occurred Feb 25 and signals scope for a deeper pullback towards 0.7462, the Dec 21, 2020 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at 0.7561, Friday's intraday high.

USDCAD TECHS: Holding Onto Gains

• RES 4: 1.2737 High Mar 5
• RES 3: 1.2653 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2535 High Apr 22
• RES 1: 1.2501 High May 4 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.2477 @ 06:59 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 1.2339 Low Jun 18
• SUP 2: 1.2246 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2190 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2057/2007 Low Jun 7 / Low May 18

USDCAD is holding onto last week's gains. The recent break of 1.2203, May 6 high confirmed a short-term reversal and the pair also cleared the 50-day EMA, reinforcing current bullish conditions. The focus is on 1.2501, a Fibonacci retracement. A break would open 1.2653, high Apr 21 and an important resistance. Initial support is seen at 1.2339, Friday's low. Dips would be considered corrective.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Approaching The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 173.79 High Apr 8
• RES 3: 173.32 76.4% retracement of the Mar 25 - May 19 sell-off
• RES 2: 173.16 High Jun 11
• RES 1: 173.04 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 173.01 @ 05:19 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 172.09 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 171.80/37 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 3
• SUP 3: 170.99 Low Mar 31 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 170.56 Low May 24

Bund futures are firmer following the recent recovery from 171.80, Jun 17 low. The recent pullback is still considered corrective and while 171.80 remains intact, scope is seen for a push higher. Note that the contract also found support just below the 50-day EMA last week, reinforcing the importance of 171.80. A break lower would strengthen a bearish case. On the upside, key resistance and bull trigger is at 173.16, Jun 11 high.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Holding Above Last Week's Lows

• RES 4: 134.758 1.382 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 134.663 1.236 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 134.510 1.00 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 134.390 High Jun 15
• PRICE: 134.210 @ 05:24 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 134.050 Low Jun 17
• SUP 2: 133.860 Low May 28 and 31 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 133.690 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 133.450 Low May 20 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures are still trading near last week's lows but remain above 134.05, Jun 17 low. The recent pullback is considered corrective however a bearish risk remains present. Price is below the 20-day EMA and note that key support lies at 133.860, May 28 and 31 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish case. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 134.510, a Fibonacci projection and the Jun 11 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 112.213 1.764 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 112.216 1.618 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 112.210 High Jun 11
• RES 1: 112.185 High Jun 15 and 16
• PRICE: 112.160 @ 05:21 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 112.145 Low Jun 3, 18 and intraday low
• SUP 2: 112.135 Low May 27, 28 and 31 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 112.120 Low May 17
• SUP 4: 112.110 Low Apr 20

Schatz futures are unchanged and trading near recent lows and remain below the Jun 11 high of 112.210. Attention is on support at 112.135, the May 27, 28 and 31 lows. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish case and expose the May low of 112.120. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 112.210, Jun 11 high where a break is required to confirm a bullish price structure and resume the recent uptrend.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 128.92 1.236 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 3: 128.50 1.00 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 128.39 High Jun 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 127.87 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 127.69 @ Close Jun 18
• SUP 1: 126.91 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 126.70 Low Jun 3 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 126.55 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 126.12 Low May 19

On Jun 9 Gilt futures cleared 127.74/85, Apr 20 and May 7, 26 highs respectively and a key resistance zone. The move through 127.74 confirmed a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and this positive price condition remains intact. Last week's pullback is considered corrective and price has remained above key short-term trend support at 126.70, Jun 3 low. Further gains would open 128.39. A break of 126.70 would be bearish.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 153.82 High Feb 12 (cont)
• RES 3: 153.40 1.236 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 152.66 1.00 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 152.03/47 High Jun 16 / High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 150.77 @ Close Jun 18
• SUP 1: 150.48 Low Jun 18
• SUP 2: 150.11 Low Low Jun 8 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 149.53 Low May 28
• SUP 4: 148.80 Low May 25

BTP futures remain in their current bullish cycle following the strong reversal from the 147.00 low on Mar 19. With bulls in control, last week's pullback is considered corrective and has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. Key near-term support lies at 150.11, Jun 8 low. The bull trigger has been defined at 152.47, Jun 14 high where a break would open 152.66, a Fibonacci projection and the Feb high of 153.82 (cont) further out.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Bearish Engulfing Candle

• RES 4: 4265.00 High Jan 15, 2008
• RES 3: 4175.00 Nov 26, 2008 low (cont)
• RES 2: 4153.00 High Jun 17 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 4052.50 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4026.00 @ 05:57 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 4015.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 3988.50 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3871.00 Low May 13
• SUP 4: 3830.00 Channel base from the Feb 26 low

EUROSTOXX 50 futures have started the week on a softer note. This follows Friday's sharp sell-off that in patterns terms, is a bearish engulfing candle. Trend conditions are overbought and a corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Attention is on the 50-day EMA that intersects at 3988.50. Note that the area around this EMA is a strong support zone. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 4153.00, Jun 17 high.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Testing The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4300.00 Round Number Resistance
• RES 3: 4264.41 1.618 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 4258.25 High Jun 15
• RES 1: 4220.00 High Jun 18
• PRICE: 4137.75 @ 07:04 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 4126.75 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 4100.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 4020.20 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 3967.00 High Mar 18

The recent pullback in S&P E-minis suggests the contract has entered a corrective cycle. Price is testing the 50-day EMA at 4142.65. The EMA represents a key support level and a clear break of the average is required to signal potential for a deeper retracement. This would open 4100.00 and below. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 4258.25, Jun 15 high and this level marks the bull trigger. Initial resistance is at 4220.00.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q1) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $76.97 1.23 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 3: $75.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $75.60 - High Apr 25, 2019 (cont)
• RES 1: $74.96 - High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $73.61 @ 06:57 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: $71.56 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $69.90 - High May 18 and the recent break out level
• SUP 3: $67.75 - Low May 25
• SUP 4: $64.50 - Low May 21 and key support

Brent crude futures traded lower Thursday last week and the contract appears to have entered a short-term corrective cycle. A deeper pullback would expose the 20-day EMA at $71.56, where a break would suggest potential for a deeper pullback towards $69.90, May 18 high and a recent breakout level. For bulls, key resistance has been defined at $74.96, Jun 16 high. A breach would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

WTI TECHS: (N1) Attention Is On The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $74.47 - 3.382 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 3: $74.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $73.20 - 3.236 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.99 - High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $71.84 @ 07:06 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: $69.26 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $67.02 - High May 18
• SUP 3: $66.23 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $65.25 - Low May 26

WTI crude pulled back from last week's $72.99 high and appears to have entered a corrective phase. Attention turns to the 20-day EMA at $69.26. If breached potential would exist for a deeper pullback towards $67.02, May 18 high and former breakout level. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger remains $72.99, Jun 16. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $1903.8/16.6 - High Jun 8 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $1877.7 - High Jun 14
• RES 2: $1851.3 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $1825.4 - High Jun 17
• PRICE: $1777.2 07:24 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: $1761.1 - Low Jun 18
• SUP 2: $1756.2 - Low Apr 29
• SUP 3: $1733.5 -76.4% retracement of the MAr 8 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 4: $1723.8 - Low Apr 13

Gold traded sharply lower last week and the outlook is bearish. The break lower resulted in a clear breach of the 50-day EMA and the subsequent follow through signals scope for a deeper pullback. Attention is on $1756.2, Apr 29 low and $1733.5, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at $1825.4, Jun 17 high ahead of the 20-day EMA at $1851.3.

SILVER TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $28.556 - High Jun 1
• RES 3: $28.267 - High Jun 11
• RES 2: $27.831 - High Jun 16
• RES 1: $27.245 - High Jun 17
• PRICE: $26.041 @ 09:28 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: $25.554 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: $24.955 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 18 rally
• SUP 4: $24.686 - Low Apr 13

Silver remains weak following last week's sharp sell-off. The sell-off resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA. The EMA highlighted a strong area of support and levels below it also represent a zone where demand potentially exists, assuming broader sentiment remains bullish. Currently though, the break lower is bearish and attention is on $24.955 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at Thursday's high of $27.245.