MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/USD Bounce Underpins Firmer S/T Tone

Price Signal Summary – EUR/USD Bounce Underpins Firmer S/T Tone

• S&P E-Minis reversed sharply lower Wednesday. It is too early to tell whether the pullback marks the start of a bearish cycle. However, the move lower means that price has - so far - failed to hold above pivot resistance around the 50-day EMA. The recent strong recovery in Eurostoxx 50 futures from Monday’s low of 4057.00 has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation higher would signal scope for 4184.50, a Fibonacci retracement.
• EURUSD traded higher once again Wednesday and the pair maintains a firmer short-term tone. Attention is on 1.0911, a Fibonacci retracement. A clear breach of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a climb towards 1.1000. EURGBP is trading higher today as the cross extends the reversal from its recent lows. The move higher this week has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, exposing a key short-term trendline resistance at 0.8898. The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish, however, a bull cycle remains in play now - a correction. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes resistance at the 50-day EMA - at 0.6773.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent short-term pullback is considered corrective. The breach on Mar 17 of former resistance at $1959.7, Feb 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull trend that started late September 2022. WTI futures remain in a downtrend and this week’s recovery appears to be a correction. Note that the latest move higher is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. Firm resistance is seen at $73.16, the 20-day EMA.
• Bund futures traded lower Wednesday but managed to recover from session lows of 134.80. A key support at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 134.84 today, remains intact. A clear break of the average is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. Gilt futures traded lower Wednesday before finding support at the day low of 102.84. The contract has pierced support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.18. A clear break of this average would strengthen any developing bearish threat and expose 101.12

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022
• RES 3: 1.1033 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0940 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 1.0930 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.0903 @ 04:57 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 1.0856 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0760 High Mar 15 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 1.0683 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0665 50-day EMA

EURUSD traded higher once again Wednesday and the pair maintains a firmer short-term tone. Price has pierced 1.0911, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 15 bear leg. A clear breach of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and open 1.1000 and a key resistance at 1.1033, the Feb 2 high and a bull trigger. Short-term momentum studies remain bullish. Initial firm support is seen at 1.0760, the Mar 15 high and a recent breakout point.

GBPUSD TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 1.2448 High Jan 23 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 3: 1.2401 High Feb 2
• RES 2: 1.2383 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.2335 High Mar 22
• PRICE: 1.2333 @ 05:38 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 1.2264/1.2179 Intraday low / Low Mar 21
• SUP 2: 1.2111 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2093 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2011 Low Mar 15

GBPUSD maintains a short-term bullish tone and is trading at this week’s highs. The pair has cleared a number of short-term resistance points this week signalling scope for an extension higher. The focus is on a climb towards 1.2401, the Feb 2 high and 1.2448, the Jan 23 high. The latter is a key medium-term resistance. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 1.2179, the Mar 21 low, ahead of 1.2111, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Approaching Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8925 High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8898 Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high
• RES 1: 0.8880 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• PRICE: 0.8858 @ 07:06 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 0.8819/8772 50-day EMA / Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.8691 Low Dec 19

EURGBP is trading higher today as the cross extends the reversal from its recent lows. The move higher this week has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, exposing a key short-term trendline resistance at 0.8898. The trendline is drawn from the Feb 3 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. A break of this level would reinstate the recent bearish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 137.91 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 136.99 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 1: 133.00/133.70 High Mar 22 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.73 @ 06:31 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 130.42 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 129.75 76.4% retracement of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: 128.09 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and key support

The current downtrend in USDJPY remains intact and the pair is trading lower today, reinforcing current conditions. The fresh short-term trend low maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This has exposed 129.75, the 76.4% retracement of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally. Firm resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA. The average intersects at 133.70 where a break is required to ease bearish pressure.

EURJPY TECHS: Holding On To The Bulk Of This Week’s Gains

• RES 4: 145.57 High Mar a2 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 144.96 High Mar 15
• RES 2: 143.98 76.4% retracement of the recent Mar 2 - 20 bear cycle
• RES 1: 143.63 High Mar 22
• PRICE: 142.80 @ 08:07 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 142.19 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 140.42/138.83 Low Mar 21 / 20
• SUP 3: 138.40 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 137.92 Low Jan 19

EURJPY traded higher again Wednesday as the cross extended the recovery from Monday’s low of 138.83. This low represents a key short-term support where a break is required to reinstate the recent bearish theme. A move lower would open 137.39, the Jan 3 low and a key support. For bulls, a continuation higher would expose 143.98 next, the 76.4% retracement of the recent Mar 2 - 20 bear cycle.

AUDUSD TECHS: Correction Extends

• RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
• RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 2: 0.6784 High Mar 1
• RES 1: 0.6773 50-day EMA and a key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6736@ 08:14 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 0.6650 Low Mar 21
• SUP 2: 0.6590/47 Low Mar 15 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 3: 0.6500 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.6425 2.00 projection of the Feb 2 - 6 - 14 price swing

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish, however, a bull cycle remains in play now - a correction. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes resistance at the 50-day EMA - at 0.6773. A clear break of the average would strengthen a bullish theme and suggest scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Remains Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 1.3977 High Oct 13
• RES 2: 1.3898 High Oct 14
• RES 1: 1.3814/3862 High Mar 15 / 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3674 @ 09:20 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 1.3644 Low Mar 21
• SUP 2: 1.3584 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3515 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21

The recent move lower in USDCAD appears to be a correction and this move has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. A key support area to watch lies at 1.3584, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at 1.3862, the Mar 10 high. A break would resume the uptrend and open 1.3977, the Oct 13 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Support At The 20-EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 139.00 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - 22 sell-off
• RES 2: 137.55/138.42 50.0% of the Mar 20 - 23 sell-off / High Mar 21
• RES 1: 136.90 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - 22 sell-off
• PRICE: 136.34 @ 05:13 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 134.84/80 20-day EMA / Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 134.15 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 133.33 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 132.70 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally

Bund futures traded lower Wednesday but managed to recover from session lows of 134.80. A key support at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 134.84 today, remains intact. A clear break of the average is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. For now, the recent retracement down is considered corrective and the move lower is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance is seen at 137.55, a Fibonacci retracement.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 119.540 High Mar 21
• RES 2: 118.955 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - 22 sell-off
• RES 1: 118.564 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - 22 sell-off
• PRICE: 118.300 @ 05:31 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 117.296 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 116.982 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 116.370 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 116.125 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally

Bobl futures traded lower Wednesday before finding support. The next key pivot support lies at the 20-day EMA that intersects at 117.296 A clear break of the EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. This would expose 116.982, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 120.610, the Mar 21 high and bull trigger. Initial firm resistance is seen at 118.955, a Fibonacci retracement.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Recent Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 106.629 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - 22 sell-off
• RES 3: 106.530 High Mar 21
• RES 2: 106.265 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - 22 sell-off
• RES 1: 106.102 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - 22 sell-off
• PRICE: 106.010 @ 05:55 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 105.575 Low Mar 16 / 22
• SUP 2: 105.507 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 105.336 61.8% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 105.030 Low Mar 15

Schatz futures traded lower Wednesday before recovering from the day low of 105.575. Attention is on 105.507, the 20-day EMA. The average marks a key short-term support where a break is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. For now, the recent move lower is considered corrective. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at 106.955, the Mar 20 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 106.265, a Fibonacci retracement.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Pierces Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 106.27 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - 22 sell-off
• RES 3: 105.61 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - 22 sell-off
• RES 2: 105.08 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - 22 sell-off
• RES 1: 104.39 High Mar 20
• PRICE: 103.86 @ Close Mar 22
• SUP 1: 102.84 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 102.31 61.8% retracement of the entire rally from Feb 28
• SUP 3: 102.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 101.12 76.4% retracement of the entire rally from Feb 28

Gilt futures traded lower Wednesday before finding support at the day low of 102.84. The contract has pierced support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.18. A clear break of this average would strengthen any developing bearish threat and expose 101.12, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a strong resumption of gains would refocus attention on the recent high of 107.33, the Mar 20 high.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Support Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: 118.56 High Jan 19 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 117.16 High Mar 20 / 21
• RES 1: 115.29/116.00 High mar 22 / Round number resistance
• PRICE: 114.65 @ Close Mar 22
• SUP 1: 114.15/114.04 Low Mar 22 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 113.02 High Mar 9 and a gap low
• SUP 3: 111.79 Low Mar 9
• SUP 4: 110.79 Low Mar 7

BTP futures Have pulled back from this week’s 117.16 high. The short-term outlook remains bullish and pullbacks are considered corrective. A resumption of gains would open 118.18 next, the Jan 19 high on the continuation chart and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 113.02, the Mar 9 high and a gap low on the daily chart. Initial firm support is seen at 114.04, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Holding On To The Bulk Of Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 4268.00 High Mar 6 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4240.00 High Mar 9
• RES 2: 4184.50 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 bear leg
• RES 1: 4164.00 High Mar 22
• PRICE: 4123.00 @ 05:45 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 4069.00/3914.00 Low Mar 21 / Low Mar 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3865.00 Low Jan 4
• SUP 3: 3800.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3750.00 Low Dec 30

The recent strong recovery in Eurostoxx 50 futures from Monday’s low of 4057.00 has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation higher would signal scope for 4184.50, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 4268.00, the Mar 6 high. On the downside, a reversal lower and a breach of 3914.00 would resume the recent downtrend. Initial support lies at 4069.00, the Mar 21 low.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Fails To Remain Above The 50-Day EMA - For Now

• RES 4: 4148.48 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg
• RES 3: 4119.50 High Mar 6
• RES 2: 4089.39 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg
• RES 1: 4023.28/4073.75 50-day EMA / High Mar 22
• PRICE: 3990.00 @ 05:06 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 3966.25 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 3897.25/3839.25 Low Mar 20 / 13
• SUP 3: 3822.00 Low Dec 22 and a key support
• SUP 4: 3778.00 Low Nov 3

S&P E-Minis reversed sharply lower Wednesday. It is too early to tell whether the pullback marks the start of a bearish cycle. However, the move lower means that price has - so far - failed to hold above pivot resistance around the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 4023.28 and a clear break is required to strengthen bullish conditions. Watch support at 3966.25, yesterday’s low - a break would be bearish. Key S/T resistance is at 4073.75.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K3) Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: $84.00 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $81.47 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $79.08 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $77.12 - High Mar 22
• PRICE: $76.23 @ 07:06 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: $72.82/70.12 - Low Mar 21 / Low Mar 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $64.62 - 1.382 proj of the Nov - Dec - Jan price swing

A downtrend in Brent futures remains intact and this week’s recovery is considered corrective. Note that a move higher is allowing a short-term oversold condition to unwind. Last week’s sell-off resulted in the break of $76.04, the Dec 12 low and a key medium term chart point. This confirms a resumption of the broader bear trend and opens $69.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is $79.08, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (K3) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $78.17 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $75.68 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $73.16 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $71.31 - High Mar 22
• PRICE: $70.44 @ 07:13 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: $66.90/64.36 - Low Mar 21 / 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: $63.19 - 1.764 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 - Mar 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $58.41 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 - Mar 7 price swing

WTI futures remain in a downtrend and this week’s recovery appears to be a correction. Note that the latest move higher is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. Firm resistance is seen at $73.16, the 20-day EMA. Last week’s extension lower confirmed a resumption of the broader downtrend and has paved the way for a move towards $62.43, the Dec 2 2021 low (cont). The bear trigger is $64.36, Monday’s low.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $2034.0 - 2.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 rally from Feb 28
• RES 1: $2009.7 - High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1977.5 @ 05:07 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: $1918.3 - Low Mar 17
• SUP 2: $1900.0 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1871.6 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1827.8 - Low Mar 10

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent short-term pullback is considered corrective. The breach on Mar 17 of former resistance at $1959.7, Feb 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull trend that started late September 2022. The test above $2000.0 opens $2034.0 next, a Fibonacci projection. $1918.3 is seen as a firm support. It is the Mar 17 low and a break would signal scope for a deeper pullback.

SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact

• RES 4: $24.637 - High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $23.520 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 downleg
• RES 2: $23.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $23.096 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $22.874 @ 08:03 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: $22.157 - Low Mar 21
• SUP 2: $21.474 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: $20.591/19.904 - Low Mar 13 / 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.416 - Low Nov 4

Silver remains firm having reversed sharply higher from $19.904, the Mar 10 low and the metal traded higher again Wednesday. Price has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at $21.957. The clear breach of this EMA strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards $23.520, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, $22.157 marks initial firm support, the Mar 21 low.