MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/USD Clears Key Resistance

Tech Focus: TYM1 Eyeing The 50-Day EMA
- Treasuries rallied at the tail-end of last week clearing resistance at 132-09+, the Mar 25 high.
- Gains are still considered corrective, although the rally this week suggests scope for an extension higher.
- Attention is on the 50-day EMA at 132-27.
- A clear break of this average would strengthen a bullish case and open 133-23, Mar 2 high.
- On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at 131-12, Apr 13 low. First support is at 131-25, Wednesday's low.
- Resistance levels to watch:
* RES 1: 132-22 High Apr 15
* RES 2: 132-27 50-day EMA
* RES 3: 133-00+ High Mar 11
* RES 4: 133-23 High Mar 2

Price Signal Summary - Gold and Oil Remain Firm

In the equity space, S&P E-minis rallied throughout last week and bulls remain firmly in control. The focus is on 4,195.50 next, 1.618 projection of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing.

In the FX world, early price action sees EURUSD clear both the 50-day EMA and resistance at 1.1990, Mar 11 high. The clear break of 1.1990 reinforces current bullish conditions and opens 1.2037, 61.8% of the Feb 25 - Mar 31 sell-off. The GBPUSD outlook remains bearish. Firm resistance is at 1.3919, Apr 6 high. The key support and bear trigger to watch is 1.3670/69, Mar 25 and Apr 12 low. EURGBP key near term resistance remains 0.8731, Feb 26 high. A break is required to suggest scope for an extension higher. USDJPY remains vulnerable, attention is on 108.41, Mar 23 low.

On the commodity front:

Gold is firmer and recent gains have confirmed a double bottom reversal. Resistance at 1784.8, 38.2% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off has given way this morning.

Brent (M1) has rallied last week. Resistance to watch is at $67.55, former trendline support drawn off the Nov 2 low and $67.76, the Mar 18 high

WTI (K1) is firmer too. The next resistance is at $64.72/88, former trendline support and the Mar 18 high.

In the FI space, key support to watch in Bunds (M1) remains 170.52, Mar 18 low. A break would signal scope for an extension lower and open 170.05, 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Mar 25 rally. Support to watch in Gilts (M1) is 127.81, Apr 14 low. Initial firm resistance is 128.93, Mar 25 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: 1.2154 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2116 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.2037 61.8% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.1995 High Apr 16 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.1959 @ 06:05 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 1.1942/01 50-day EMA / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1861 Low Apr 7 and 8 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 1.1795 Low Apr 6
• SUP 4: 1.1738 Low Apr 5

EURUSD is softer today but is trading within its recent range and bullish conditions remain intact. A solid break of 1.1990, Mar 11 high would strengthen a bullish argument and signal scope for an extension higher. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA is a bullish development and short-term momentum signals point north. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 1.1861, Apr 7 and 8 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Firmer Tone

• RES 4: 1.4017 High Mar 4
• RES 3: 1.3997 Former bull channel base
• RES 2: 1.3953 50% Retracement Feb - Mar Downleg
• RES 1: 1.3919 High Apr 6 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.3853 @ 06:15 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 2: 1.3670/69 Low Mar 25 / Low Apr 12
• SUP 3: 1.3663 Low Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: 1.3641 38.2% retracement of the Sep 23 - Feb 24 bull cycle

GBPUSD is starting the week on a firmer note following a strong recovery from Friday's low of 1.3717. A key short-term resistance at 1.3919, Apr 6 high remains intact though. A break would strengthen a short-term bullish theme and also signal scope for gains towards 1.3997, a former bull channel base, drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low. The bear trigger is unchanged at the 1.3670 level. A clean breach would resume the recent downtrend.

EURGBP TECHS: Pulling Away From Recent Highs

• RES 4: 0.8840 High Feb 4
• RES 3: 0.8791/8821 High Feb 12 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 0.8719 High Apr 16 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 0.8635 @ 06:24 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 0.8626 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8582 Low Apr 7
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8430/8396 Low Feb 27, 2020 / 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band

EURGBP is pulling away from Friday's high of 0.8719. The inability to remain above the 0.8700 handle is an early indication that the recent corrective bounce is over. A deeper sell-off in the cross would open 0.8582, Apr 7 low and expose the Apr 5 low of 0.8472. Medium-term moving average signals are bearish, in line with the broader downtrend that has dominated since Sep 2020. A break of 0.8719 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Cycle

• RES 4: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
• RES 3: 110.55/97 High Apr 6 / High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 109.96 High Apr 9
• RES 1: 109.22 High Apr 16
• PRICE: 108.67 @ 06:30 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 108.41 Low Mar 23 and key support
• SUP 2: 108.12 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 107.50 Trendline support drawn off the Jan 6 low
• SUP 4: 106.97 Low Mar 4

USDJPY maintains a bearish short-term. Last week's move lower has paved the way for a test of support at 108.41, Mar 23 low and a key short-term level. Note too that the 50-day EMA intersects at 108.12. Clearance of this 108.41/12 zone would signal scope for a deeper sell-off ahead of 107.50, a trendline support drawn off the Jan 6 low. Initial firm resistance is unchanged at 109.96, Apr 9 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Range Bound

• RES 4: 132.36 1.382 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 3: 131.58 High Oct 4, 2018
• RES 2: 131.22 1.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 1: 130.69 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 129.99 @ 06:35 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 129.57 Low Apr 8
• SUP 2: 129.12/10 Trendline drawn off Oct 30 low / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 128.29 Low Mar 24
• SUP 4: 127.50 Low Feb 22

EURJPY remains within its recent trading range. The cross has defined an initial support at 129.57, Apr 8 low and note, the 20-day EMA has also recently provided support. A clear break of this average would suggest scope for a deeper pullback and expose the 50-day EMA at 129.10 and a trendline at 129.12, drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. While this key support zone holds, the uptrend remains intact. The trigger for a resumption of gains is 130.69.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 0.7895 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 3: 0.7849 High Mar 18 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 0.7774 High Mar 19
• RES 1: 0.7761 High Apr 15
• PRICE: 0.7735 @ 06:41 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 0.7675 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 0.7586 Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: 0.7532/17 Low Apr 1 and the bear trigger / Low Dec 22

AUDUSD maintains a firmer tone following last week's break of 0.7677, Apr 7 high. The move higher also resulted in a breach of trendline resistance drawn off the Feb 25 high and note, price is back above the neckline of a recent head and shoulders reversal pattern. An ability to remain above the 50-dma would strengthen a bullish case. Initial firm support is at 0.7635, Feb 14 low. A break would be bearish.

USDCAD TECHS: Appears Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.2763 High Feb 12
• RES 3: 1.2749 High Feb 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2700 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 1.2647 High Mar 30 and the short-term bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2504 @ 06:45 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 1.2477 Low Apr 15
• SUP 2: 1.2462 Low Mar 19
• SUP 3: 1.2365 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2336 1.00 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing

USDCAD is trading closer to recent lows and a bearish threat remains present. Support at 1.2502, Apr 5 low gave way last week. A resumption of intraday weakness would suggest scope for a deeper pullback and open 1.2365, Mar 18 low and the bear trigger. For bulls, a recovery would once again refocus attention on the key resistance and bull trigger at 1.2647, Mar 30 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Bearish Risk Remains Present

• RES 4: 172.66 High Mar 25
• RES 3: 172.34 High Mar 29
• RES 2: 172.12 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 171.62 High Apr 14
• PRICE: 170.95 @ 05:10 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 170.52 Low Mar 18 and key support
• SUP 2: 170.05 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 3: 170.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 169.24 Low Feb 24 and major support

A bearish risk remains present in Bund futures. Attention is on the key short-term support at 170.52, Mar 18 low. Clearance of this level would further strengthen a bearish case and signal scope for a deeper sell-off, opening 170.05, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is at 171.62, Apr 14 high A firmer resistance though is at 172.12, Apr 8 high. A break of this level is required to signal a stronger bullish theme.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 135.520 High Mar 25
• RES 3: 135.440 High Mar 29
• RES 2: 135.350 High Apr 8 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 135.180 High Apr 14
• PRICE: 134.970 @ 05:24 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 134.830 Low Apr 15
• SUP 2: 134.780 Low Mar 8 and 9
• SUP 3: 134.667 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 4: 134.446 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Bobl futures traded lower last week breaching a number of near-term supports in the process. A bearish outlook remains intact with attention on support at 134.780, Mar 9 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish argument and suggest scope for a deeper pullback. This would open 134.667, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is unchanged at 135.180, Apr 14 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 112.201 0.764 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 3: 112.174 0.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 2: 112.165 High Mar 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 112.150 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 112.100 @ 05:32 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 112.080 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 112.070 Low Mar 18 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 112.060 Low Mar 10
• SUP 4: 112.026 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Initial Schatz futures resistance is unchanged at 112.150, Mar 25 high. The contract also remains below a key resistance at 112.165, Mar 25 high. The Apr 14 sell-off reinforces a bearish theme and further weakness would expose support at 112.070, Mar 18 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish argument and open 112.060, Mar 10 low and potentially below. For bulls, a break of 112.165 would reinstate a bullish theme.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Key Resistance Is 129.27

• RES 4: 130.38 High Feb 17 and 18
• RES 3: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 2: 129.27 High Mar 2 and the reversal trigger
• RES 1: 128.93 High Mar 25
• PRICE: 128.44 @ Close Apr 16
• SUP 1: 127.81 Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: 127.32 Low Apr 1
• SUP 3: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)

The Gilt futures downtrend remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Key near-term resistance levels are seen at 128.93, Mar 25 high and 129.27, Mar 2 high. A break of the latter level is required to signal a short-term reversal and the potential for stronger gains. On the downside, a breach of support at 127.81, Apr 14 low would reinstate a near-term bearish tone and expose support at 127.32, Apr 1 low.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 150.39 High Mar 11 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 149.88 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 149.47 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 148.89 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 148.33 @ Close Apr 16
• SUP 1: 147.69/68 Low Apr 14 / 76.4% of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 rally
• SUP 2: 147.56 Low Mar 5
• SUP 3: 146.84 Low Feb 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1456.16 Low Sep 21, 2020

BTP futures maintain a bearish tone. The recent break of support at 148.36, Mar 18 low reinforces a bearish theme and paves the way for weakness towards 147.56, Mar 5 low. Clearance of this level would expose the key support and bear trigger at 146.84, Feb 26 low. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 148.95, the 20-day EMA ahead of 149.47, Apr 8 high. Bearish!

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 Techs: Clears 4000

• RES 4: 4150.66 High Jan 17, 2008
• RES 3: 4110.24 High Jan 18, 2008
• RES 2: 4047.72 2.236 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 1: 4037.61 High Apr 16
• PRICE: 4032.99 @ Close Apr 16
• SUP 1: 3953.26 Low Apr 6 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 3925.75 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3910.90 Low Mar 31
• SUP 4: 3841.46 Low Mar 26

EUROSTOXX 50 maintains a bullish theme, trading higher Friday registering a fresh trend high and confirming a break of the psychological 4000.00 level. The recovery from 3784.09, Mar 25 low confirmed a resumption of the uptrend, extending the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The breach of 4000.00 opens 4047.72 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 3953.26, Apr 13 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M1) Holding Onto Recent Gains

• RES 4: $70.67 - High Mar 8 and the key bull trigger
• RES 3: $69.50 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $67.80 - Former trendline support drawn off the Nov 2 low
• RES 1: $67.76 - High Mar 18
• PRICE: $66.64 @ 06:51 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: $63.88 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: $61.25 - Low Apr 5
• SUP 3: $60.33 - Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $58.27 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally

Brent crude futures are holding onto last week's gains and maintain a bullish tone following the recent break of $63.59, Mar 29 high. With short-term momentum studies pointing north, further gains are likely. Initial resistance is at $67.76/80, Mar 18 high and a former trendline support drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low. A break of this zone would open $69.50, Mar 15 high. Initial support is at $63.88, Apr 14 low.

WTI TECHS: (K1) Bullish Theme

• RES 4: $67.79 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $66.44 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $64.98 - Former trendline support drawn off Nov 2, 2020 low
• RES 1: $64.88 - High Mar 18
• PRICE: $63.05 @ 06:56 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: $60.38 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: $57.63 - Low Apr 5
• SUP 3: $57.25 - Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $55.65 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally

WTI futures maintain a bullish tone following last week's breach of $62.27, Mar 30 high. With short-term momentum studies pointing north, further gains are likely. The next key resistance is $64.88/98, the Mar 18 high and a former trendline support drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low respectively. A break of this zone would open $66.44, Mar 15 high. Initial support is at $60.38, Apr 14 low. A break would be bearish.

GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In Charge

• RES 4: $1818.1 - 50.0% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off
• RES 3: $1816.0 - High Feb 23
• RES 2: $1805.7 - High Feb 25
• RES 1: $1784.8 - 38.2% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off
• PRICE: $1777.3 @ 07:14 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: $1757.9 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1721.4 - Low Apr 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $1705.9 - Low Apr 1
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger

Gold traded higher Friday extending recent gains. The yellow metal has cleared resistance at $1758.8, Apr 8 high and is trading above the 50-day EMA. The break higher last week confirmed a double bottom reversal pattern that has formed since the Mar 8 low. Attention is $1784.8, a retracement level and $1805.7, Feb 25 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $1721.4, Apr 5 low. A break would be bearish.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Cycle

• RES 4: $26.941 - 50.0% retracement of the Feb 1 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 3: $26.636 - High Mar 18 and firm near-term resistance
• RES 2: $26.318 - High Mar 19
• RES 1: $26.304 - High Apr 16
• PRICE: $25.808 @ 07:20 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: $24.686 - Low Apr 13 and a key support handle
• SUP 3: $23.781 - Low Mar 31
• SUP 4: $23.524 - Low Dec 7 and key near-term support

Silver traded higher again Friday and short-term bullish conditions remain intact despite today's pullback. The metal has breached the 50-day EMA and this places on hold the recent bearish focus. The break higher last week signals scope for gains towards $26.636, Mar 18 high and a key near-term resistance. A break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish case. On the downside, short-term support has been defined at $24.686, Apr 13 low.