MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/USD Defies S/T Bullish Signals

Price Signal Summary – EUR/USD Defies S/T Bullish Signals

• S&P e-minis maintain a softer tone and the contract started this week on a bearish note. Support at 4235.50, the Oct 4 low and bear trigger, has been breached. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 4194.75, the May 24 low. A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and last week’s extension lower reinforces current conditions. Support at 4082.00, the Oct 4 low and a bear trigger, has been cleared.
• Despite breaching both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, EURUSD corrected lower into the Tuesday close, defying any bullish signals that emanated from the week’s early strength. A resumption of gains would strengthen the bull cycle and signal scope for a stronger correction. USDJPY is unchanged and continues to trade inside a tight range. The trend condition is bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Furthermore, moving average studies continue to highlight positive market sentiment. A bearish threat in AUDUSD remains present and this week’s gains appear to be a correction. Attention is on 0.6286, the Oct 3 / 13 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the trend and open 0.6215, a Fibonacci projection.
• Gold is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains and reversal from $1810.5, the Oct 6 low. The yellow metal has breached key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high, and $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. WTI futures traded lower Tuesday as the pullback from last Friday’s $89.85 high extends. The medium-term trend condition is bullish and the latest pullback appears to be a correction.
• Bund futures remain in a downtrend, however, this week’s gains highlight a strong corrective cycle. This has resulted in a move through the 20-day EMA and exposed resistance at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 129.57. Gilt futures maintains a bearish theme. Tuesday’s bullish start and the recovery from Monday’s low is considered corrective. For bears, price has recently traded through key support at 91.47, the Aug 17 low.

EURUSD TECHS: Faces Resistance Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.0862 50.0% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0809 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 1.0764 38.2% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0694/0737 High Oct 24 / High Sep 20
• PRICE: 1.0603 @ 05:47 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 1.0591 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0496/0448 Low Oct 13 / 03 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0406 50.0% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0365 2.0% 10-dma envelope

Despite breaching both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, EURUSD corrected lower into the Tuesday close, defying any bullish signals that emanated from the week’s early strength. A resumption of gains would strengthen the bull cycle and signal scope for a stronger correction. This would open 1.0764, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch lies at 1.0591, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would be bearish and expose 1.0496, the Oct 13 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.2506 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 1.2443 200-dma
• RES 2: 1.2349 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2337 High Oct 11 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2174 @ 06:03 Oct 25
• SUP 1: 1.2090 Low Oct 19
• SUP 2: 1.2037/28 Low Oct 04 and bear trigger / Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: 1.2011 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1964 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing

GBPUSD faced resistance Tuesday and has reversed most of this week’s climb. For now, gains are considered corrective and the trend is bearish. A resumption of weakness would open 1.2037, the Oct 4 low and bear trigger. A break of this level would resume the downtrend that started in July and open 1.1964, a Fibonacci projection. For bulls, clearance of 1.2337 would signal scope for a stronger corrective cycle.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 3: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 1: 0.8741 High Oct 20
• PRICE: 0.8709 @ 06:16 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 0.8669 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8641/16 50-day EMA / Low Oct 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8569 Low Sep 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8558 Low Sep 11

Despite this week’s move lower, a bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact. The recent breach of key short-term resistance at 0.8706, the Sep 26 high and a bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition too, highlighting positive market sentiment. The focus is on 0.8793, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8669, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Continues To Point North

• RES 4: 151.95 High Oct 21 and a major resistance
• RES 3: 151.09 2.764 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 2: 150.40 2.618 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 1: 150.16 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 149.83 @ 06:35 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 149.28/147.43 20-day EMA / Low Oct 3 and key support
• SUP 2: 146.44 Low Sep 12
• SUP 3: 145.91 Low Sep 11
• SUP 4: 144.45 Low Sep 1

USDJPY is unchanged and continues to trade inside a tight range. The trend condition is bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Furthermore, moving average studies continue to highlight positive market sentiment. Attention is on the 150.00 handle and the recent 150.16 high (Oct 3). A clear break of 150.00 would reinforce bullish conditions and open 150.40, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch is 147.43, the Oct 3 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 161.52 2.618 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.94 2.50 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 160.36 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 160.00 Psychological handle
• PRICE: 158.84 @ 06:55 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 158.03 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 156.98 Low Oct 16
• SUP 3: 155.83 Low Oct 4
• SUP 4: 154.46 Oct 3 and the bear trigger

EURJPY started the week on a bullish note and traded higher Monday. This resulted in a print above key resistance at 159.76, the Aug 30 high and a bull trigger. The cross has pulled back from yesterday’s high. A clear break of 159.76 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 160.36, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 158.10, the 20-day EMA. Key support is far off at 154.46, the Oct 3 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6445/6501 High Oct 11 / High Sep 29
• RES 1: 0.6419 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6375 @ 07:55 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 0.6286 Low Oct 3 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6170 Low Oct 13 2022 and a key support

A bearish threat in AUDUSD remains present and this week’s gains appear to be a correction. Attention is on 0.6286, the Oct 3 / 13 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the trend and open 0.6215, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend resistance is unchanged at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. A break is required to highlight a reversal. Initial resistance to watch is at 0.6393, the Oct 18 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Attention Is On The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 1.3952 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.3862 High Mar 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 1: 1.3786 High Oct 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3754 @ 08:00 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 1.3651/3577 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.3477 76.4% retracement of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 rally
• SUP 3: 1.3417 Low Sep 29
• SUP 4: 1.3381 Low Sep 19 and a key support

The USDCAD trend condition remains bullish and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Price continues to trade above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The 50-day average intersects at 1.3577 and marks a key short-term support. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a deeper correction. Sights are on 1.3786, the Oct 5 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.3862, the Mar 10 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 131.33 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
• RES 3: 130.43 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
• RES 2: 130.20 High Oct 12 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 129.12/129.57 High Oct 24 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 128.77 @ 05:24 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 128.22/127.18 Low Oct 24 / 23
• SUP 2: 126.62 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 125.49 0.764 proj of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

Bund futures remain in a downtrend, however, this week’s gains highlight a strong corrective cycle. This has resulted in a move through the 20-day EMA and exposed resistance at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 129.57. Clearance of this average would expose the key resistance at 130.20, the Oct 12 high. Initial support to watch is 127.18, the Oct 23 low. A break would be a bearish development.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 116.567 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Sep 28 downleg
• RES 3: 116.500 High Oct 10 and the short-term bull trigger
• RES 2: 116.150 High Oct 16
• RES 1: 116.020 High Oct 24
• PRICE: 115.940 @ 05:37 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 115.630/130 Low Oct 24 / 19
• SUP 2: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 114.710 Low Aug 15 (cont)
• SUP 4: 114.414 0.764 proj of the Sep 1 - 28 - Oct 12 price swing

Recent gains in Bobl futures appear to be a correction. Last week’s sell-off undermines the recent bullish theme and a resumption of weakness would signal scope for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at 114.880, the Sep 28 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Key short-term resistance and a bull trigger has been defined at 116.500, the Oct 10 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 3: 105.372 76.4% Fibonacci retracement Sep 1 - 21 downleg
• RES 2: 105.190/105.320 High Oct 12 / 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 105.140 High Oct 13
• PRICE: 105.040 @ 05:53 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 104.800 Low Oct 19
• SUP 2: 104.765 Low Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

A bear threat in Schatz futures remains present and recent gains are considered corrective. Key resistance is at 105.320, the Oct 10 high and marks a short-term bull trigger. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support at 104.765, the Sep 21 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Initial resistance is at 105.140, the Oct 13 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Recovery Appears To Be A Short-Term Correction

• RES 4: 96.05 High Sep 25
• RES 3: 95.66 High Oct 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 93.82/94.28 61.8% of the Oct 12 - 23 bear leg / High Oct 16
• RES 1: 93.34 High Oct 24
• PRICE: 92.70 @ Close Oct 24
• SUP 1: 92.44/90.85 Low Oct 24 / 23
• SUP 2: 90.38 Low Oct 12 2022 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 3: 90.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 89.22 1.236 proj of the Sep 20 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

Gilt futures maintains a bearish theme. Tuesday’s bullish start and the recovery from Monday’s low is considered corrective. For bears, price has recently traded through key support at 91.47, the Aug 17 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and paves the way for a move towards 90.38, the Oct 12 2022 low (cont) and a major support. Initial resistance is at 93.34, yesterday’s high.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 113.69 76.4% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 112.53 61.8% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 111.59 50.0% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 110.00/111.17 High Oct 24 / 12 and key resistance
• PRICE: 109.17 @ Close Oct 24
• SUP 1: 107.42 Low Oct 19
• SUP 2: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.85 2.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

BTP futures traded to a fresh cycle low last week as the contract extended the reversal from 111.17, the Oct 12 high. Price has pierced key support at 107.62, the Oct 4 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the long-term downtrend and open 107.08, a Fibonacci projection. 111.17 marks the key resistance. Clearance of this level is required to highlight a possible short-term reversal. Recent gains are considered corrective.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4216.40/4256.00 50-day EMA / High Oct 12
• RES 1: 4148.00 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4081.00 @ 06:16 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 4006.00 Low Oct 23
• SUP 2: 3979.00 1.00 proj of the Sep 15 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 3914.00 Low Mar 20 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3873.20 1.382 proj of the Sep 15 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and last week’s extension lower reinforces current conditions. Support at 4082.00, the Oct 4 low and a bear trigger, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on the 4000.00 handle. Initial firm resistance is at 4148.00, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 4514.50 High Sep 18
• RES 3: 4472.62 Trendline resistance drawn from the Jul 27 high
• RES 2: 4399.13/4430.50 50-day EMA / High Oct 12
• RES 1: 4341.49 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4256.00 @ 07:11 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 4213.25 Low Oct 2
• SUP 2: 4194.75 Low May 24
• SUP 3: 4166.25 1.50 proj of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 4134.00 Low May 4

S&P e-minis maintain a softer tone and the contract started this week on a bearish note. Support at 4235.50, the Oct 4 low and bear trigger, has been breached. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 4194.75, the May 24 low. Price remains below resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 4399.13. A clear breach of this average is required to strengthen a bullish condition. Initial resistance is at 4341.49, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z3) Bull Cycle Still In Play Despite Recent Pullback

• RES 4: $99.73 - 1.236 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 3: $96.22 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 2: $95.35 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $93.79 - High Oct 20
• PRICE: $87.69 @ 06:58 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: $85.18/83.44 - Low Oct 12 / 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $82.80 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $81.33 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $79.84 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

Brent futures traded lower yesterday, extending the pullback from last week’s high of $93.79 (Oct 20). The trend condition is bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Key support lies at $83.44, the Oct 6 low. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at $95.35, the Sep 28 high. For bears, a break of $83.44, would highlight potential for a stronger bear cycle.

WTI TECHS: (Z3) Key Support Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: $98.27 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: $96.03 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: $92.48 - High Sep 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $89.85 - High Oct 20
• PRICE: $83.28 @ 07:07 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: $80.20 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 2: $77.74 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $75.47 - Low Jul 24
• SUP 4: $74.26 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

WTI futures traded lower Tuesday as the pullback from last Friday’s $89.85 high extends. The medium-term trend condition is bullish and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. A resumption of gains would expose the bull trigger at $92.48, the Sep 28 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. For bears, a move through $80.20, the Oct 6 low, would instead highlight a short-term top.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: $2048.2 - High May 10
• RES 3: $2022.2 - High May 15
• RES 2: $2003.4 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Oct 6 bear leg
• RES 1: $1997.2 - High Oct 20
• PRICE: $1974.3 @ 07:12 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: $1945.3/1912.7 - Low Oct 19 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13
• SUP 3: $1844.3 - Low Oct 9
• SUP 4: $1810.5 - Low Oct 6 and a key support

Gold is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains and reversal from $1810.5, the Oct 6 low. The yellow metal has breached key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high, and $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. The break strengthens a bullish theme and opens $2003.4, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm pivot support lies at $1912.7, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level is required to signal a short-term top and a potential reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $25.267 - High Jul 20
• RES 3: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $24.298 - High Sep 4
• RES 1: $23.774 - High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $22.885 @ 08:04 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: $22.567 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $21.573/20.689 - Low Oct 9 / 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

A corrective cycle in Silver remains in play and the metal is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has recently breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break of the 50-day average, at $22.827, strengthens bullish conditions and the move higher has opened $23.774, the Sep 22 high. For bears, a reversal lower and a break of $20.689, Oct 3 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Initial support to watch though is $22.601, the 20-day EMA.