MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/USD MA Studies Remain Bullish

Price Signal Summary – EUR/USD MA Studies Remain Bullish

• S&P E-Minis traded higher Monday but failed to hold on to the session high. Key resistance at 3918.27, the 50-day EMA, has been breached. A continuation higher and a clear break of this EMA would suggest potential for a stronger recovery and highlight a possible reversal that would open 4000.00 next. EUROSTOXX 50 futures bullish conditions remain intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Futures have cleared resistance at 4043.00, the Dec 13 high and a bull trigger.
• EURUSD is holding on to this week’s gains. The move higher has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend - the bull trigger at the Dec 15 high at 1.0735, has been cleared. The break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. EURGBP is consolidating and is trading closer to its recent highs. The outlook is bullish and last month's break of 0.8829, the Nov 9 high, reinforced this positive theme. The move higher opens 0.8907 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. AUDUSD traded higher Monday and the pair is holding on to its gains. A bullish theme remains intact. The pair has cleared 0.6893, the Dec 13 high and this confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 13. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal continues to trade higher, extending the current uptrend. The move higher maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position - reflecting the current uptrend. WTI futures failed to hold on to Monday’s gains. A bearish theme remains intact following the sell-off on Jan 3 and 4. Key support and the bear trigger lies at $70.31, the Dec 9 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend and maintain a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
• Bund futures remain in an uptrend following last week’s gains and despite pulling back from its recent highs. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA and short-term signals suggest scope for a continuation higher near-term. Gilt futures are trading below recent highs, however, a short-term uptrend remains intact following the recovery from 99.18, the Dec 28 low. The contract has traded above the 20-day EMA and sights are set on 103.12, a Fibonacci retracement.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 1.0851 High Apr 25, 2022
• RES 3: 1.0846 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.0787 High May 30 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.0761 High Jan 9
• PRICE: 1.0752 @ 05:39 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: 1.0612 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0484/75 Low Jan 6 / 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 3: 1.0459 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0394 Low Dec 1

EURUSD is holding on to this week’s gains. The move higher has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend - the bull trigger at the Dec 15 high at 1.0735, has been cleared. The break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. The focus is on 1.0787, the May 30, 2022 high. Key support has been defined at 1.0484, the Jan 6 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2446 High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2242/2303 High Dec 19 / 76.4% of Dec 14 - Jan 6 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2210 High Jan 9
• PRICE: 1.2167 @ 05:53 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: 1.2079 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1974/36 50-day EMA / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1779 Low Nov 21

GBPUSD is trading at its recent highs and maintains a bullish short-term tone. The recovery from last Friday’s low of 1.1842 highlighted an early reversal and Monday’s follow through reinforces the signal that suggests the end of the recent bear cycle between Dec 14 - Jan 6. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. Sights are on 1.2242 next, the Dec 19 high. Key support is at 1.1842, the Jan 6 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8992 61.8% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8907 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8877 High Dec 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8832 @ 06:14 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: 0.8769 Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 0.8735 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8646 High Dec 8
• SUP 4: 0.8593 Low Dec 15

EURGBP is consolidating and is trading closer to its recent highs. The outlook is bullish and last month's break of 0.8829, the Nov 9 high, reinforced this positive theme. The move higher opens 0.8907 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Note too that moving average studies highlight a bullish backdrop, reinforcing the current trend direction. Initial firm support is seen at 0.8735, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would be bearish.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 137.48 High Dec 20
• RES 3: 136.56 200-dma
• RES 2: 134.77/81 High Jan 6 / 23.6% Oct - Jan Downleg
• RES 1: 133.43 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 132.29 @ 15:44 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 131.31 Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 129.52 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 128.44 1.236 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 127.53 Low May 31

USDJPY is unchanged and remains below last Friday’s high of 134.77. The pullback and weak close on Friday, reinforces a bearish theme and suggests that recent gains have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a broader downtrend. The key support and trigger for a resumption of the trend is 129.52, Jan 3 low. Initial key short-term resistance is at 134.77.

EURJPY TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 144.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 143.16 61.8% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 142.94 High Dec 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 142.57 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 142.29 @ 06:46 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: 141.10/139.97 Low Jan 10 / 5
• SUP 2: 139.36 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 137.03 Low Aug 29

EURJPY is trading higher today as the cross extends the rally that started on Jan 3. Price is approaching 142.57, the 50-day EMA, ahead of a key hurdle for bulls at 142.94. Near-term strength is deemed corrective while the cross remains below 142.94. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 137.39, Jan 3 low, where a break would resume the 2-month downtrend and open 137.03, Aug 29 low. For bulls, clearance of 142.94 would signal a reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 0.7137 High Aug 11
• RES 3: 0.7059 2.236 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 2: 0.7009 High Aug 26
• RES 1: 0.6976 2.00 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• PRICE: 0.6915 @ 06:52 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 0.6860 Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 0.6786 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6688 Low Jan 3 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.6650 Low Dec 22

AUDUSD traded higher Monday and the pair is holding on to its gains. A bullish theme remains intact. The pair has cleared 0.6893, the Dec 13 high and this confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 13. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies are in a bull mode position. The focus is on 0.6976, a Fibonacci projection. Key support lies at 0.6688, the Jan 3 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
• RES 1: 1.3525 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3421 @ 07:02 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: 1.3357 Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 1.3317 Low Nov 24 / 25
• SUP 3: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD is trading at this week’s lows and the short-term outlook remains bearish. Recent weakness has resulted in a print below key support at the 1.3385 level - the Dec 5 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.3317, the Nov 24 / 25 low. The bear trigger lies at 1.3226, the Nov 15 low. On the upside, key resistance is far-off at 1.3705, the Dec 16 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3525, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 138.97 61.8% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 138.62 High Dec 16
• RES 1: 137.47/76 High Jan 6 / 50.0% of the Dec 7 - Jan 3 bear leg
• PRICE: 136.62 @ 05:14 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: 135.74 Low Jan 6
• SUP 2: 135.08 Low Jan 4 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 133.79 Low Jan 3
• SUP 4: 132.60 Low Jan 2 and the bear trigger

Bund futures remain in an uptrend following last week’s gains and despite pulling back from its recent highs. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA and short-term signals suggest scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 137.76 next and if this level is cleared, it would open 138.97 further out - Fibonacci retracement levels. On the downside, initial firm support is at 135.08, the Jan 4 low.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 118.427 61.8% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 3: 118.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 117.895 50.0% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 1: 117.630 High Jan 6
• PRICE: 117.210 @ 05:14 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: 116.740 Low Jan 6
• SUP 2: 116.540 Low Jan 4 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 116.030 Low Jan 3
• SUP 4: 115.640 Low Jan 2 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures continue to trade closer to last week’s highs and a bullish tone remains intact. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and this break strengthens the current bull cycle, signalling potential for an extension higher near-term. Attention is on 117.895 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The current bull cycle is considered corrective. Initial firm support to watch lies at 116.540, the Jan 4 low. A break of this level would signal a reversal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Resistance Is Seen At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 106.118 50.0% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 105.939 38.2% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 1: 105.817/830 20-day EMA / High Jan 6
• PRICE: 105.700 @ 05:41 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: 105.560 Low Jan 6
• SUP 2: 105.360 Low Jan 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 105.345 2.618 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 105.270 2.764 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing

Schatz futures traded higher last week and the contract remains closer to its recent highs. 105.817 marks a firm resistance, the 20-day EMA - a break would strengthen short-term bullish conditions. The latest recovery is considered corrective - for now. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 105.360, the Jan 2 trend low and bear trigger. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Bullish Short-Term Cycle

• RES 4: 104.35 High Dec 16
• RES 3: 103.67 High Dec 19
• RES 2: 103.12 50.0% retracement of the Nov 24 - Dec 28 low
• RES 1: 102.78 High Jan 6
• PRICE: 101.87 @ Close Jan 10
• SUP 1: 101.02 Low Dec 4
• SUP 2: 99.97 Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: 99.18 Low Dec 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 98.15 Low Oct 24 (cont)

Gilt futures are trading below recent highs, however, a short-term uptrend remains intact following the recovery from 99.18, the Dec 28 low. The contract has traded above the 20-day EMA and sights are set on 103.12, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 101.02, the Jan 4 low. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 98.15, the Dec 28 low.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 116.46 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Dec 30 bear leg
• RES 3: 114.91 61.8% retracement of the Dec 7 - Dec 30 bear leg
• RES 2: 114.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 113.75 High Jan 9
• PRICE: 113.37 @ Close Jan 10
• SUP 1: 111.59/110.77 Low Jan 6 / Low Jan 4
• SUP 2: 109.29 Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: 108.36 Low Dec 30 low and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 108.13 Low Sep 28 (cont) and a key support

The current bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and sights are set on the 114.00 handle next. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 114.91, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 110.77, the Jan 4 low. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 108.36, the Dec 30 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Heading North

• RES 4: 4215.00 2.00 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 3: 4175.50 High Feb 16 (cont)
• RES 2: 4132.60 76.4/% of the Nov ‘21 - Oct ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 1: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 4089.00 @ 05:52 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: 3927.00/3850.90 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3697.00 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 3580.00 Low Nov 3

EUROSTOXX 50 futures bullish conditions remain intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Futures have cleared resistance at 4043.00, the Dec 13 high and a bull trigger. The clear break represents a key short-term positive development and paves the way for gains to 4100.00 next. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reinforcing the current positive trend condition. Initial support lies at 3927.00, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Testing Resistance

• RES 4: 4180.00 High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 4043.00 High Dec 15
• RES 2: 4000.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 3973.25 High Jan 9
• PRICE: 3939.50 @ 07:00 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: 3788.50/78.45 Low Dec 22 / 61.8% of Oct 13-Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 2: 3735.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 3670.00 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 4: 3735.00 Low Oct 21

S&P E-Minis traded higher Monday but failed to hold on to the session high. Key resistance at 3918.27, the 50-day EMA, has been breached. A continuation higher and a clear break of this EMA would suggest potential for a stronger recovery and highlight a possible reversal that would open 4000.00 next. On the downside, a break lower would confirm a resumption of the downtrend - the bear trigger is 3788.50, the Dec 22 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H3) Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $90.49 - High Nov 17
• RES 3: $89.18 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $87.00 - High Jan 3
• RES 1: $81.59/83.68 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: $79.59 @ 06:56 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: $77.61 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $75.64 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $73.73 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures remain bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. A bearish theme follows the sharp sell-off on Jan 3 and 4. A resumption of weakness would expose $75.64, the Dec 9 low and bear trigger, where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started on Nov 7. This would pave the way for weakness towards $75.00 and below. On the upside, initial key resistance has been defined at $87.00, the Jan 3 high.

WTI TECHS: (G3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $84.10 - High Nov 17
• RES 3: $83.27 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $81.50 - High Jan 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $76.37/78.50 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: $74.44 @ 07:06 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: $72.46 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $70.31 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $68.19 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $65.47 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

WTI futures failed to hold on to Monday’s gains. A bearish theme remains intact following the sell-off on Jan 3 and 4. Key support and the bear trigger lies at $70.31, the Dec 9 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend and maintain a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This would open $68.19, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key resistance is at $81.50, the Jan 3 high.

GOLD TECHS: Continues To Climb

• RES 4: $1934.4 - High Apr 25, 2022
• RES 3: $1919.9 - High Apr 29, 2022
• RES 2: $1909.8 - High May 5, 2022
• RES 1: $1896.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• PRICE: $1882.00 @ 07:19 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: $1825.2 - Low Jan 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: $1797.1 - Low Dec 28
• SUP 3: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15
• SUP 4: $1765.9 - Low Dec 5

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal continues to trade higher, extending the current uptrend. The move higher maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position - reflecting the current uptrend. The focus is on $1896.5, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at $1825.2, Jan 5 low.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Signals Point North

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 2: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $24.548 - High Jan 4
• PRICE: $23.859 @ 07:23 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: $22.557 - Low Dec 16 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $22.477 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $20.872 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: $20.585 - Low Nov 21

The trend condition in Silver remains bullish despite the recent pullback. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition and fresh trend highs in December reinforce the bullish theme. Furthermore, the move higher has maintained the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $24.729, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at $22.557, the Dec 16 low.