MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/USD Testing Key Support

Price Signal Summary - Bunds And Gilts Head North

• In the equity space, the E-mini S&P (U1) broader uptrend has resumed, with new all time highs printed this morning. The break confirms a resumption of the broader uptrend, with markets topping 4264.41, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, the break higher also exposes 4300.00 next. Initial firm support is at 4155.00, Jun 3 low. The broader medium-term trend support is at 4020.00, May 13 low.
• In the FX space, EURUSD still appears vulnerable. The pair trades either side of the 1.2111 50-day EMA and has briefly shown below the 1.2104 Jun 4 low. This zone represents a key short-term support. GBPUSD recovered Thursday however the pair remains in a range. Key support lies at the May 13 low at 1.4006 while the 50-day EMA is just above at 1.4034. The outlook remains bullish while these levels hold. Recent USDJPY weakness resulted in a probe of support at 109.33, Jun 1 low. The pair is consolidating, however a clear break lower would threaten the recent uptrend and expose 108.56, May 25 low. 110.33, Jun 4 high is the bull trigger.
• On the commodity front, Gold key short-term directional triggers are unchanged. These are; $1916.6, the Jun 1 high and bull trigger and $1856.2, the Jun 4 low. Trend conditions in oil remain bullish and price continues to point higher. Brent (Q1) gains have seen the price top $73.00, a round number resistance. WTI (N1) is holding onto recent highs and has shown above $70.92, 2.764 projection of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• Within FI, Bunds (U1) have topped the 50-day EMA at 172.00 and trend structures appear bullish. The contract is trading slightly higher this morning and the focus is on 173.32 next, 76.4% of the Mar 25 - May 19 sell-off. Gilts (U1) traded higher Wednesday and cleared 127.74/82, the highs between Apr 20 and May 26. This opens 128.50, 1.00 projection of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Breached The 50-day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2414 High Apr 17, 2018
• RES 3: 1.2349/53 High Jan 6 / High Apr 20, 2018
• RES 2: 1.2266/85 High May 25 and the bull trigger / High Jan 8
• RES 1: 1.2218 High Jun 9
• PRICE: 1.2104 @ 06:02 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 1.2093 Low Jun 11
• SUP 2: 1.2052/43 Low May 13 / 100-dma
• SUP 3: 1.1986 Low May 5
• SUP 4: 1.1919 61.8% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally

EURUSD ended last week on a soft note. The pair traded lower Friday, breaching initial support at 1.2111, the 50-day EMA and 1.2104, Jun 4 low. The break lower signals scope for a deeper short-term correction and an extension would expose the next firm support at 1.2052, May 13 low with the 100-dma at 1.2043. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2218, Jun 9 high. A break would ease the bearish threat.

GBPUSD TECHS: Broad Consolidation

• RES 4: 1.4437 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4377 High Apr 17, 2018 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.4315 High Apr 18, 2018
• RES 1: 1.4203/48 High Jun 3 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.4110 @ 06:06 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 1.4074 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 1.4037/06 50-day EMA / Low May 13 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.3972 Low May 10
• SUP 4: 1.3858 Low May 6

GBPUSD conditions are unchanged and the pair is still trading in a range below key resistance at 1.4248, Jun 1 high. Trend conditions remain bullish. The probe on Jun 1 of former resistance at 1.4237, Feb 24 high reinforces a bullish theme however a clear break is required to confirm a resumption of the trend. This would open 1.4315, April 18 2018 high. Key support is seen at the 50-day EMA, at 1.4037 and 1.4006, May 13 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Still Looking For A Break Lower

• RES 4: 0.8776 2.0% 10-dma envelope and high Feb 12
• RES 3: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 2: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull Trigger
• RES 1: 0.8646/72 High Jun 1 / High May 25
• PRICE: 0.8578 @ 06:13 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 0.8565/61 Low Jun 4 / Low May 12
• SUP 2: 0.8531 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8432 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURGBP traded lower Friday and the cross is holding onto recent lows. Price action remains in a range though. From a trend perspective, the outlook is bearish. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8672, May 25 high and while this holds, attention is on 0.8561, May 12 low. A break would strengthen a bearish case and expose 0.8531, a Fibonacci retracement ahead of key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. For bulls, a move above 0.8672 alters the picture.

USDJPY TECHS: Holding Above Support

• RES 4: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
• RES 3: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 110.55 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 110.33 High Jun 4
• PRICE: 109.75 @ 06:18 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 109.19/01 Low Jun 7 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 108.56/34 Low May 25 / Low May 7 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 106.97 Low Mar 4

USDJPY has managed to remain above support at 109.19 and the pair continues to consolidate. The sharp sell-off on Jun 4 and 7 resulted in a print below former support at 109.33, Jun 1 low. The move dents the bullish theme and a deeper sell-off would expose 108.56, May 25 low. On the upside, a recovery would instead refocus attention on 110.33, Jun 4 high where a break would reinstate the uptrend and open this year's 110.97 high from Mar 31.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Risk Remains Present

• RES 4: 135.11 Bull channel top drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low
• RES 3: 134.80 High Feb 8, 2018
• RES 2: 134.19 1.618 proj of Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 swing
• RES 1: 133.76/34.13 High Jun 10 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 132.83 @ 06:26 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 132.67 Low Jun 11
• SUP 2: 132.52 Low May 24
• SUP 3: 132.02 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 131.60 Bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low

EURJPY extended losses Friday, showing below the Jun 7 low to touch 132.67. This extends the lower end of the recent range and confirms a break of the 20-day EMA. The move lower raises the risk of a deeper correction with attention turning to the 50-day EMA at 132.02. First support is at 132.52, May 24 low. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 133.76, Jun 10 high. A break would expose 134.13, Jun 1 high and the bull trigger.

AUDUSD TECHS: Attention Is On Support

• RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25
• RES 3: 0.7891/95 High May 10 / 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 2: 0.7813/46 High May 18 / High May 12
• RES 1: 0.7776 High Jun 11
• PRICE: 0.7712 @ 06:43 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 0.7646 Low Jun 3
• SUP 2: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 0.7586 Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: 0.7546 200-dma

AUDUSD remains weaker inside the recent range. The pair broke through 0.7675 on Jun 3 but immediately reversed the sharp move lower. The break lower though does highlight a bearish risk. A resumption of weakness would open 0.7586, Apr 13 low and 0.7532, Apr 1 low and a key support. Initial resistance is at 0.7773, Jun 2 high and 0.7813, May 18 high. A break of the latter would ease bearish pressure.

USDCAD TECHS: Watching Key Resistance At 1.2203

• RES 4: 1.2419 High Apr 27
• RES 3: 1.2351 High May 4 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 1.2236 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2177/2203 High Jun 11 / High May 6
• PRICE: 1.2147 @ 06:50 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 1.2059/2007 Low Jun 9 / Low May 18
• SUP 2: 1.2000 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 1.1920 Low May 2015
• SUP 4: 1.1842 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD traded higher Friday. Key resistance at 1.2203, May 6 high remains intact though. The underlying trend is bearish with key support and the bear trigger at 1.2007, May 18 low. A break would resume the downtrend and expose the psychological 1.2000 handle where a breach would reinforce bearish conditions. For bulls, clearance of 1.2203, would instead signal a short-term base and the potential for a stronger corrective bounce.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Maintains A Bullish Tone

• RES 4: 174.07 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 173.79 High Apr 8
• RES 2: 173.32 76.4% retracement of the Mar 25 - May 19 sell-off
• RES 1: 173.16 High Jun 11
• PRICE: 172.91 @ 04:59 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 171.81 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 170.99 Low Mar 31 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 170.56 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 170.27 Low May 21

Bund futures maintain a firmer tone. The contract breached the 50-day EMA last week and 172.05, the Jun 4 high. The break higher signals scope for stronger short-term gains. Attention is on 173.32 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support lies at the 20-day EMA that intersects at 171.81. Key near-term support has been defined at 170.99, Mar 31 low where a break is required to signal a reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 134.835 1.500 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 134.758 1.382 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 134.663 1.236 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 134.510 1.00 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• PRICE: 134.410 @ 05:08 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 134.104 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 133.860 Low May 28 and 31 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 133.690 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 133.450 Low May 20 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures remain bullish and traded higher once again Friday. On Jun 4, price cleared 134.100. May 26 and 27 high. The break confirms a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, highlighting an uptrend. Scope is for a move towards 134.510 next, a Fibonacci projection and Friday's high. Key short-term support has been defined at 133.860, May 28 and 31 low. Initial support is at 134.104.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Short-Term Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 112.235 2.00 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 112.213 1.764 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 112.216 1.618 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 112.210 High Jun 11
• PRICE: 112.195 @ 5:22 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 112.160 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 112.150 Low Jun 4, 7, 8
• SUP 3: 112.145 Low Jun 3
• SUP 4: 112.135 Low May 27, 28 and 31 and key near-term support

Schatz futures remain firm. Last week the contract cleared resistance at 112.180, May 27 high. The break higher highlights a stronger short-term bullish tone signalling scope for a climb towards 112.216 and 112.223 next, Fibonacci projections. Key trend support has been defined at 112.135, late May lows where a break is required to reinstate a bearish theme. Initial support is at 112.160, Jun 10 low.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Northbound

• RES 4: 129.19 1.382 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 3: 128.92 1.236 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 128.50 1.00 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 1: 128.39 High Jun 11
• PRICE: 128.15 @ Close Jun 11
• SUP 1: 127.34 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 127.13 Low Jun 8
• SUP 3: 126.70 Low Jun 3 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 126.55 Low May 21

Gilt futures traded higher again Friday. Last week saw the contract clear resistance at 127.74/85, Apr 20 and May 7, 26 highs respectively and a key resistance zone. Furthermore, the move through 127.74 confirms a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing a bullish theme. The focus is on 128.50, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term trend support has been defined at 126.70, Jun 3 low. Initial support is seen at 127.34.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Momentum Remains Firm

• RES 4: 153.82 High Feb 12 (cont)
• RES 3: 153.40 1.236 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 152.66 1.00 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 152.45 High Jun 11
• PRICE: 152.32 @ Close Jun 11
• SUP 1: 150.75 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 150.11 Low Low Jun 8 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 149.53 Low May 28
• SUP 4: 148.80 Low May 25

BTP futures traded higher again Friday and the contract maintains the current bullish cycle following the reversal from the 147.00 low on Mar 19. With bulls clearly in control and momentum still positive, attention is on 152.66 next, a Fibonacci projection. The contract is also approaching the Feb high of 153.82. On the downside, firm support has been defined at 150.11, Jun 8 low. Initial support is at yesterday's low of 150.75, Jun 10 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (M1) Fresh Trend Highs

• RES 4: 4290.00 High Jan 14, 2008
• RES 3: 4265.00 High Jan 15, 2008
• RES 2: 4224.71 Bull channel top drawn off the Feb 26 low
• RES 1: 4175.00 Low Nov 26, 2007 (cont)
• PRICE: 4139.00 @ 05:44 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 4057.81/4016.00 20-day EMA / Low May 27
• SUP 2: 3975.44/64.58 50-day EMA / Channel base from Feb 26 low
• SUP 3: 3882.00 Low May 19
• SUP 4: 3844.00 Low May 13 and the bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Friday and conditions remain bullish as the contract extends gains with a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows intact. Furthermore, moving average studies also remain in bull mode, reinforcing current trend conditions. The focus is on 4175.00 next, Nov 26 2008 low. On the downside, firm trend support is unchanged at 3882.00, May 19 low. Initial support lies at 4057.81, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Still Climbing

• RES 4: 4334.57 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round Number Resistance
• RES 2: 4264.41 1.618 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 4243.75 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4240.25 @ 06:57 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 4189.19/55.50 20-day EMA / Low Jun 3
• SUP 2: 4127.55/4046.00 50-day EMA / Low May 19
• SUP 3: 4020.20 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 4005.50 Low Apr 5

S&P E-minis remain bullish and have traded higher again today. The contract has moved above the former high of 4228.25 on May 10. The break confirms a resumption of the broader uptrend and signals potential for further gains with the next objective at 4264.41, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, the break higher also opens 4300.00. Initial firm support is at 4155.00, Jun 3 low. The broader medium-term trend support is at 4020.00, May 13 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q1) Bullish Price Action

• RES 4: $74.59 1.00 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 3: $74.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: $74.20 - High Apr 26, 2019 (cont)
• RES 1: $73.40 - High May 20 2019 (cont)
• PRICE: $73.05 @ 06:55 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: $70.26 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $69.90 High May 18 and the recent break out level
• SUP 3: $66.39/64.50 - Low May 24 / Low May 21 and key support
• SUP 4: $63.51 - Low Apr 22

Brent crude futures continue to trade higher, extending the underlying uptrend. The $72.00 handle was cleared last week and attention turns to $73.40 next, the May 20, 2019 high (cont). Moving average studies remain bullish, reinforcing current conditions. Weakness through $64.50, the May 21 low is required to highlight a key short-term top. Initial support lies at $70.00, the 20-day EMA ahead of $69.90, May 18 high.

WTI TECHS: (N1) Still Heading North

• RES 4: $74.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: $73.20 - 3.236 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 2: $72.70 - High Oct 15, 2018 (cont)
• RES 1: $72.06 - 3.00 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• PRICE: $71.24 @ 07:03 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: $67.76 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $67.02 - High May 18
• SUP 3: $63.63/61.56 - Low May 24 / Low May 21
• SUP 4: $60.55 - Low Apr 22 and key short-term support

WTI crude futures remain bullish and the contract has traded higher once again today. The psychological $70.00 handle has recently been cleared. The break reinforces current trend conditions and opens $72.06 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend support has been defined at $61.56, May 21 low. A break is required to suggest a key short-term top. Initial firm support is seen at $67.76, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: $1965.6 - High Nov 9, 2020
• RES 3: $1959.4 - High Jan 6 and key resistance
• RES 2: $1927.7 - High Jan 7
• RES 1: $1903.8/16.6 - High Jun 8 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1860.8 @ 08:24 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: $1856.2 - Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: $1852.3 - Low May 19
• SUP 3: $1841.6 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1808.9 - Low May 13

Gold is trading lower, extending Friday's sell-off. Recent price action has defined two key short-term directional triggers; $1916.6, the Jun 1 high and bull trigger and $1856.2, Jun 4 low. A break of the latter would reinforce a recent bearish threat following strong selling pressure Jun 3. A break would open the 50-day EMA at $1841.6, also seen as a key support area. For bulls, clearance of $1916.6 would resume the uptrend instead.

SILVER TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: $30.100 - High Feb 1 and key resistance
• RES 3: $29.053 - High Feb 2
• RES 2: $28.753 - High May 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $28.556 - High Jun 1
• PRICE: $27.794 @ 07:38 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: $27.130 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $27.040 - Low Jun 3 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $26.721 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: $25.718 - Low Apr 29

Silver has so far failed to hold above the $28.00 handle. Key resistance at $28.556/753, Jun 1 and May 18 highs respectively remains intact. A break of this zone is required to negate recent bearish concerns following the sharp sell-off on Jun 3. Clearance of $28.753 would also confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $27.040, Jun 3 low. A break would instead be bearish.